Wisdom from the Cryptogon

I’ve been following the doings and the writings of a fellow named Kevin now for sometime. Kevin is the author of the Cryptogon Blog. He’s an interesting guy who walks his talk.

He’s been concerned about a lot of the same issues I am (i.e. the coming Perfect Storm ) and he’s translated this concern into giving up a career in the financial/investment industry in Orange County, California and moving to New Zealand to start a permaculture farm in the countryside north of Auckland and to get him self off the grid and out of harm’s way.

His blog is one of the one’s listed in my Blogroll of blogs I like and read regularly. In addition to admiring Kevin for the strength of his convictions and how he takes action on them, I owe him a debt of gratitude because his blog was the first one in the world to cross-link back to mine a few months ago when I first started up here.

I don’t always agree with everything Kevin thinks or posts but that’s normal. As I heard the other day on a TV show, “If we were all identical, we wouldn’t need more than one of us, eh?”

In any case, the following are Kevin’s thoughts on what prudent people should be thinking about as they begin to think through what they are going to do and where they want to be as our joint and probably unpleasant history unfolds in the years just ahead.

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I can safely say that I have no for-sure strategies for preserving wealth in the face of the situation facing the U.S. and the world. Like I’ve said before, I don’t think it’s possible to get a grasp on the seriousness of this, a priori. If any of several different situations (financial, war/terror, energy, pandemic, weather/ecological) start to unwind, we won’t be debating gold vs. silver vs. stocks vs. bonds vs. cash etc.

I’d be investing very close to home.

Is your landbase and community sorted out? Meaning, do you have good top soil and a reliable and clean water supply? Are you friends with your neighbors? Is everyone armed? They should be.

I would suggest using your money to get your land in the best shape possible, and to buy equipment and tools that will LAST for a long, long time.

While I don’t think real estate makes sense anymore from the typical investment perspective, I think it MIGHT make sense IF you can own it outright and collect rent. What you’re doing is trading your paper wealth for an income stream in the future. Forget about what’s going to happen to the value of the property. Just forget that aspect for a moment, if you can. Unless we go to a Max Max scenario (which could happen) there will still be owners and there will still be renters. Your U.S. dollar denominated paper assets may have long since become worthless, but you will still be collecting the coin of the realm (whatever that happens to be in the future) from your renters.

The old “don’t put all your eggs in one basket” rule applies as much now as it ever did.

I, personally, wouldn’t go near typical buy-and-hold investments; stocks, bonds, etc. If you feel as though you have to be in paper assets, you should be using advanced hedging techniques with options to mitigate risk. You’ll be paying fixed amounts of money along the way (option expiration) to prevent potential disaster. People who were long Yahoo AND holding puts in the right ratio made out like bandits on the stock’s collapse, while the regular retail investors got decapitated.

I don’t see gold being a cure-all, but who knows!? It might go to ______ < - fill in the blank. Consider nibbling the dips under $600? That would be my best guess, if I was forced to make a guess. Oil? It could just as easily go to $45 before it goes to $200. I wouldn't go near oil, long or short. It's far too volatile. Real estate!? HAHAHA. Keep your powder dry and buy when blood is flowing in the streets. Pay cash for potential rental units that dumbsh*ts MUST sell at shocking discounts (from today's prices) to avoid bankruptcy. (If Becky and I had excess cash to deal with, which we don't, this would be our plan.) A lot of really nice apples are about to be shaken loose from the tree. This might sound weird, but it must not be overlooked. Start up some kind of business or activity that involves young men. Look at the role of young men in any failed state. You will want to have these guys on your side when things get weird. Your life might depend on it. Well, those are a few ideas to consider. Original post is here:

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