Archive for October, 2006

Apocalypse Now: How Mankind is Sleepwalking to the End of the Earth

Saturday, October 21st, 2006

– This is a particularly good article and I highly recommend reading it. Â It may be more that a year old but its information is, if anything, even more topical than ever.

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Floods, storms and droughts. Melting Arctic ice, shrinking glaciers, oceans turning to acid. The world’s top scientists warned last week that dangerous climate change is taking place today, not the day after tomorrow. You don’t believe it? Then, says Geoffrey Lean, read this…

(Originally published on February 6th, 2005)

Last week, 200 of the world’s leading climate scientists – meeting at Tony Blair’s request at the Met Office’s new headquarters at Exeter – issued the most urgent warning to date that dangerous climate change is taking place, and that time is running out.

Next week the Kyoto Protocol, the international treaty that tries to control global warming, comes into force after a seven-year delay. But it is clear that the protocol does not go nearly far enough.

The alarms have been going off since the beginning of one of the warmest Januaries on record. First, Dr Rajendra Pachauri – chairman of the official Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – told a UN conference in Mauritius that the pollution which causes global warming has reached “dangerous” levels.

Then the biggest-ever study of climate change, based at Oxford University, reported that it could prove to be twice as catastrophic as the IPCC’s worst predictions. And an international task force – also reporting to Tony Blair, and co-chaired by his close ally, Stephen Byers – concluded that we could reach “the point of no return” in a decade.

Finally, the UK head of Shell, Lord Oxburgh, took time out – just before his company reported record profits mainly achieved by selling oil, one of the main causes of the problem – to warn that unless governments take urgent action there “will be a disaster”.

More…

research credit to MD – thx

Can “Tipping Points” Accelerate Global Warming?

Saturday, October 21st, 2006

OSLO – Rising temperatures trigger a runaway melt of Greenland’s ice sheet, raising sea levels and drowning Pacific islands and cities from New York to Tokyo.

In Siberia, the permafrost thaws, releasing vast frozen stores of greenhouse gases that send temperatures even higher. In the tropics, the Amazon rainforest starts to die off because of a warmer, drier climate.

Such scenarios may read like the script of a Hollywood disaster movie but many scientists say there are real risks of “tipping points” — sudden, catastrophic changes triggered by human activities blamed for warming the planet.

“Even small risks in the climate need to be considered, just as we try to avert accidents at nuclear power plants,” said Stefan Rahmstorf, a professor at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and an expert in ocean currents.

“I don’t think this is scaremongering. We don’t really understand the system,” he said of risks that the warm Gulf Stream current in the North Atlantic might shut down in one possible “tipping point” scenario.

Melting ice in Greenland could send a sudden flow of cool water into the North Atlantic, disrupting the giant current that pulls warm water northwards to create the Gulf Stream.

This might shut down the warm current and could also make parts of Europe and North America sharply colder, despite an overall warming of the climate.

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research credit to MD – thx

Expect a climatic ‘wild ride,’ study says

Saturday, October 21st, 2006

WASHINGTON (AP) — The world — especially the Western United States, the Mediterranean region and Brazil — will likely suffer more extended droughts, heavy rainfalls and longer heat waves over the next century because of global warming, a new study forecasts.

But the prediction of a future of nasty extreme weather also includes fewer freezes and a longer growing season.

In a preview of a major international report on climate change that comes out next year, a study out of the National Center for Atmospheric Research details what nine of the world’s top computer models predict for the lurching of climate at its most extreme.

“It’s going to be a wild ride, especially for specific regions,” said study lead author Claudia Tebaldi, a scientist at the federally funded academic research center.

Tebaldi pointed to the Western U.S., Mediterranean nations and Brazil as “hot spots” that will get extremes at their worst, according to the computer models.

And some places, such as the Pacific Northwest, are predicted to get a strange double whammy of longer dry spells punctuated by heavier rainfall.

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061021 – Saturday

Saturday, October 21st, 2006

In 1970, on this date, I was discharged from the United States Air Force after serving for four years. Then, four years seemed like several ice ages and this magic date is forever burned into my memory from the many thousands of times then that I wished it would hurry up and get here so I could go out into the world and do what I wanted with my life. Given that I spent most of the last year and a half of my time in the service under threat of court-martial also gave me strong incentives to move on. But, that’s a story for another day.

Things are progressing here in preparation for my departure to New Zealand on November 10th. I’m down to 20 days or so now and I’ve drawn up a day-by-day calendar which I can use to allocate my time and measure how much I have to do vs. how much time I have to do it in. Someone should do a study about how much pleasure people get from drawing up lists of what they have to do vs. how much pleasure they actually get from doing the things on the list. . I know which I like better.

There’s been a flurry of articles appearing on Perfect Storm issues the last few days. I’m going to post several this morning after I finish and post this one.

Cheers!

Gravity Measurements Confirm Greenland’s Glaciers Precipitous Meltdown

Friday, October 20th, 2006

– The scary part of this article is towards the end. And I quote:

This study and other GRACE studies published by [others] all agree that there is significant mass wastage of Greenland into the ocean,” notes glaciologist Eric Rignot of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. “None of this has been predicted by numerical models, and therefore all projections of the contribution of Greenland to sea level [rise] are way below reality.“‘

– To get an idea of why this is scary, read about the Thermohaline Circulation here and especially here.  This is definitely an evolving piece of the Perfect Storm.
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Of late, the enormous glaciers that flow down to the sea from the interior of Greenland have been picking up speed. In the last few years, enough ice has come off the northern landmass to sustain the average flow of the Colorado River for six years or fill Lake Mead three times over or cover the state of Maryland in 10 feet of water, assuming it were perfectly flat. And whether it is the glaciers’ weight, speed or volume that is measured, a quickening of the their movement can be detected. In fact, the latest gravity-based measurements show that the glaciers lost roughly 101 gigatons of ice annually between 2003 and 2005, according to a paper published online in Science.

More…

Climate water threat to millions

Friday, October 20th, 2006

-I’ve written about the coming water problems here.

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Climate change threatens supplies of water for millions of people in poorer countries, warns a new report from the Christian development agency Tearfund.

Recent research suggests that by 2050, five times as much land is likely to be under “extreme” drought as now.

Tearfund wants richer states to look at helping poorer ones adjust to drought at next month’s UN climate summit.

This week the UK’s climate minister said he is confident of reaching an deal on adaptation funds at the talks.

There is an “urgent need” for such measures, Ian Pearson told a parliamentary committee.

The Tearfund report, Feeling the Heat, urges donors to ramp up assistance quickly. Other charities are likely to make similar pleas in the run-up to the Nairobi summit, which begins on 6 November.

Citing research by the Oxford academic Norman Myers, Tearfund suggests there will be as many as 200 million climate refugees by 2050.

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Critics accuse Canada of abandoning Kyoto

Friday, October 20th, 2006

– Talk is cheap. Canada signed up for Kyoto which was commendable. But, when the rubber hit the road, they essentially did nothing. Now, they are going to try to put a good spin on it all by making new grandiose plans for what they will do (really) by 2050. I see it all as just a way to avoid real action. Unfortunately, as the cost of real action becomes apparent, many countries are backing away hoping someone else will come forward and make the sacrifice. And all the while, like a spring building up tension, nature is being pushed harder and harder by our denial and inattention. A Perfect Storm of consequence is coming.

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TORONTO, Ontario (AP) — Canada’s government introduced legislation Thursday that would cut greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2050, a target date that prompted critics to declare that Ottawa effectively has abandoned the international Kyoto accord on climate change.

The proposed Clean Air Act, intended to counter claims that Prime Minister Stephen Harper is soft on the environment, sets no short-term targets for cutting greenhouse emissions. In the long term, it says the government would seek to cut emissions 45 percent to 65 percent by 2050.

Under the Kyoto accord, Canada pledged to cut its emissions by 6 percent from 1990 levels by 2012. The country’s emissions are now 30 percent above 1990 levels.

The legislation, which must be passed by the House of Commons, is certain to get a rough ride from opposition parties who say the act is far too weak and makes no reference to Canada’s commitments under the Kyoto treaty.

“What we can see now is that no matter what the government says about not pulling out of Kyoto, we officially pulled out of Kyoto today,” said John Bennett of the Sierra Club of Canada.

“There is no intention now to even try to achieve what we had pledged; we have decided to abandon our international commitment,” he said.

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Iran bans fast internet to cut west’s influence

Thursday, October 19th, 2006

– To my thinking, ideas should stand or fall on their own merit. Therefore, when governments control information to direct the thoughts and perceptions of their populations, they are revealing that they don’t beleive that the ideas they are promoting could stand on their own merit.

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· Service providers told to restrict online speeds
· Opponents say move will hamper country’s progress

Iran’s Islamic government has opened a new front in its drive to stifle domestic political dissent and combat the influence of western culture – by banning high-speed internet links.

In a blow to the country’s estimated 5 million internet users, service providers have been told to restrict online speeds to 128 kilobytes a second and been forbidden from offering fast broadband packages. The move by Iran’s telecommunications regulator will make it more difficult to download foreign music, films and television programmes, which the authorities blame for undermining Islamic culture among the younger generation. It will also impede efforts by political opposition groups to organise by uploading information on to the net.

The order follows a purge on illegal satellite dishes, which millions of Iranians use to clandestinely watch western television. Police have seized thousands of dishes in recent months.

The latest step has drawn condemnation from MPs, internet service companies and academics, who say it will hamper Iran’s progress. “Every country in the world is moving towards modernisation and a major element of this is high-speed internet access,” said Ramazan-ali Sedeghzadeh, chairman of the parliamentary telecommunications committee. “The country needs it for development and access to contemporary science.”

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061019 – Thursday – a favorite word

Thursday, October 19th, 2006

Tertulia – I really like that word and what it refers to.   Here’s a link  to a brief Wikipedia article which explains the idea .

It reminds me of reading about Charles Darwin and how various scientists and thinkers would come to his place and each afternoon, they’d all walk around the grounds and discuss various issues.

I’d like nothing better than to find my life arranged so that each day for an hour or two, I could spend time with interesting people discussing cutting edge ideas.   So far, the closest I’ve come are E-mail threads and chats over coffee at Starbucks in the morning.

Building a Better Voting Machine

Thursday, October 19th, 2006

– I’ve posted a number of articles on this subject here, here, here, here, here, and here.   I’m glad to see that computer scientists are getting involved in a discussion of what constitutes a reasonable electronic voting machine.

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It’s been six years since the Florida presidential fiasco launched a flurry of spending around the country to replace antiquated punch-card and lever voting machines with expensive new electronic touch-screen machines. Yet new controversies over the security of e-voting machines continue to crop up, making it clear that the new machines are just as problematic as the ones they replaced.

Why can’t the voting machine companies get it right?

With election season upon us, Wired News spoke with two of the top computer scientists in the field, UC Berkeley’s David Wagner and Princeton’s Ed Felten, and came up with a wish list of features we would include in a voting machine, if we were asked to create one.

These recommendations can’t guarantee clean results on their own. Voting machines, no matter how secure, are no remedy for poor election procedures and ill-conceived election laws. So our system would include thorough auditing and verification capabilities and require faithful adherence to good election practices, as wells as topnotch usability and security features.

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