Archive for April, 2007

Greenhouse Gas Effect Consistent Over 420 Million Years

Monday, April 9th, 2007

Science Daily New calculations show that sensitivity of Earth’s climate to changes in the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO2) has been consistent for the last 420 million years, according to an article in Nature by geologists at Yale and Wesleyan Universities.

A popular predictor of future climate sensitivity is the change in global temperature produced by each doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere. This study confirms that in the Earth’s past 420 million years, each doubling of atmospheric CO2 translates to an average global temperature increase of about 3° Celsius, or 5° Fahrenheit.

More…

New flu strains ‘resisting drugs’

Monday, April 9th, 2007

New strains of the flu virus are showing resistance to drugs that experts had hoped would slow the spread of any pandemic, research suggests.

Tamiflu is viewed as the best weapon currently available against a flu pandemic, and is being stockpiled by governments including the UK’s.

But Japanese researchers found evidence of emerging resistance to Tamiflu, and a second drug Relenza.

The study is published in the Journal of the American Medical Association.

Experts have warned that a flu pandemic could claim millions of lives around the world.

There is concern that the H5N1 strain of the virus – known as bird flu – could mutate to gain the ability to spread easily from person to person.

At present the virus, a type of the A strain of flu, does not have this ability, although it has killed 170 people since 2003. These were mainly poultry workers, who came into very close contact with infected birds.

More…

070408 – Sunday – Easter

Sunday, April 8th, 2007

The Earth was not given to you by your parents.
It was loaned to you by your children.

– anonymous

070407 – Saturday – Life in the fast lane

Saturday, April 7th, 2007

Things have been extremely busy here at our business for the last week or so and so my posting rate has definitely dipped.

In that time, I’ve completely gutted the core of our irrigation system and then replaced it. The good news is that it all works now as intended and just in time as mother nature has seen fit to give us a burst of very strange weather. I discuss the irrigation project (along with pictures) here: .

The weather has, indeed, been odd here in western Washington State in the USA this year. I’ve posted about that as well here: .

Other things have been afoot that I’ve wanted to post about but, thus far, I’ve just been too busy or too tired in the evenings.

For instance, I doubt that anyone on the planet who follows environmental and global climate change issues could fail to be aware that the IPCC has released another report and it’s a doozy. The report was released officially on Friday, April 6th, but news outlets and bloggers have been all over early leaked versions for days. I was sorely tempted to join the fun but I decided to wait for the real document. I’ve posted here: on this subject. There you will find a number of links to various aspects and points-of-view on the new IPCC document. As ever, there is a strong undercurrent of doubt being expressed by various climate skeptics about the substance of the report. And, distressingly, as the report was going from its final draft form to its final release form, some nations weighed in (The US and China – most notably) and pushed to water down, what was the scientific consensus, for blatantly political concerns. But, in spite of this, the scientists who’ve released the final version say it is still a good reflection of the scientific consensus and it is a definite wake-up-call to humanity to recognize that we are all on-board a train-wreck in progress.

And then there are some friends of ours who are moving to Britain. That, in itself, isn’t so amazing. But the back-story behind why they are moving are interesting and should concern all of us if we love this country. I Blog about that here: .

And, finally, a friend heard me make a comment the other day that if one resists change when it comes, then it will, in effect, begin to stalk you and the pressure to change will increase until your hand is forced. She wanted me to say more about this and so I’ve written a philosophy piece on this, here: .

070407 – Saturday – The Irrigration System

Saturday, April 7th, 2007

A week or two ago, I mentioned that I was going to rebuild the core of the irrigration system here at the nursery. Well, I spent most of the last week on this project and it’s all now up and running (yahoo!).

The new system is much cleaner and easier to program and, the best part is, that I know what every wire and every piece of the system is doing. I no longer have to live in fear that something among all those mysterious boxes and wires is going to fail and I won’t know how to fix it and our business will be on the line.

Here are some pictures I took as the rebuild went along:

After the old system components were ripped outThe wall behind is too weak to support muchNow the wall behind is braced up

 

The rain drives my work area insideComplained too soon about the rain…This is your life, mate

 

All the electrical parts are done and testedThe new 2.5 HP one-phase pump replaces the 1 HP three-phase pumpAnd now we’re looking at the final result - water for the plants

So, the old irrigation controller, circa 1980’s, is gone as are the 28VAC transformer, the big relay and the one-phase to three-phase converter. Now we’re running on real one-phase power (which is all we’ve ever really had here) and we’ve got a modern Rainbird irrigration controller and simple circuitry I can understand and repair when necessary. Not unimportant stuff when your livelihood depends on plants and trees and they are all depending on water to thrive. It’s a project I’m glad to have behind me and one that I am very happy to say went quite well.

 

070407 – Saturday – Strange weather – you bet!

Saturday, April 7th, 2007

I write a lot about Global Warming and Global Climate Change here on this Blog. This post will be about weather but on a much smaller scale and much more personal.

On the 2nd of April here, we had snow on the ground.

Snow on April 2nd

And then a few days later, on the 5th and the 7th of April, we had days of record breaking heat here. And I mean record-breaking. Records fell in this area on both days. One record advanced from 68F to 72F.

So, what does this prove? Nothing – in and of itself, not a thing. It could just be a statistical fluke. We know they happen every once in a while. But, the scientists are telling us that one way the weather will change as global climate change gets up and starts to run with our future is that our weather will experience wider and harder swings. More rain when it rains, less rain when it’s dry. Bigger storms when it’s storming.

It’s something to think about long and hard. Are the summers and winters the way you remember them as a kid? Who do the climate skeptics think they are kidding?

Latest report from the IPCC folks

Saturday, April 7th, 2007

If you follow discussions on Global Climate Change, you’d have to be living under a rock to not know that the IPCC released its latest sub-report on Friday, April 6th.

There are three sub-reports scheduled this year and, jointly, they make up the 4th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report.

The first sub-report this year concluded with 90% certainty that human activities are causing the rise in global atmospheric temperatures. This 2nd sub-report of the year focuses on the consequences of the warming that’s in progress – and the news is not good.

Bloggers and news organizations have been all over this story for a week working on early leaked documents, final draft documents and final release documents. It’s been a free-for-all and I’m not sure that I can add a lot to the conversation so I’m just going to link to some of the more interesting on-line articles I’ve seen on this topic. Below are links to various stories I’ve found on the web about this latest IPCC report along with a brief note about each link.

– This is a brief history of the IPCC reports in general. It discusses their purpose and the various versions that have been released to date.

– This is a summary in Scientific American about the most recent sub-report.

– This is an opinion piece in the New York Times discussing whether or not grim news like this might finally serve to break President Bush out of his long-standing denial of the problem. (See note at the bottom about the NY Times)

– This is the final draft as the scientists wanted it. But, at the eleventh hour, several governments lobbied to water certain sections down to better align things with their ‘political’ views of reality.

– This is another piece from this NY Times – this time from their environmental section discussing the findings of the sub-report in general. (See note at the bottom about the NY Times)

– This piece is, itself, an aggregation of articles from other news sources. This is from Time Magazine’s Blog called The Ag.

– This is a piece from the Washington Post discussing how the IPCC sub-report was watered down by several governments over the objections of the scientists at the last moment.

– This is another piece from the environmental section of the New York Times. It discusses the consequences of Global Warming as outlined in the IPCC sub-report. (See note at the bottom about the NY Times)

– This is from National Geographic and it explores the consequences of the consequences described by the IPCC. I.e., that these changes may in turn spur extinctions, shortages and conflicts world wide.

– This article from CNN discusses the tension and anger that were palpable in the last hours, before the final version of this sub-report was issued, between the scientists and the governments lobbying to water the report down.

– This is a summary of the IPCC Summary for Policy Makers – Part I, II, & III.

That’s 11 articles. I could have gone on and gathered up another dozen without breaking a sweat. This story’s big and everyone is reporting on it, Blogging on it, analyzing it and rendering opinions about it. I didn’t go to see what the climate skeptics are saying but I’m sure they are churning out vast quantities of confusion and disinformation to deflect the sharp edges of this report.

Frankly, it amazes me that we still need to try and convince people that something is going on with global climate change. And, what amazes me more, is that humanity’s response to this problem has been so pitifully inadequate to date. And now President Bush is saying he thinks we’re doing enough at the same time other folks are saying that we’re way past being able to stop these changes, and now we just need to figure out the best way to cope with the unavoidable.

We’re in some serious doo-doo here, folks. If humanity survives this mess, then it would be interesting to read the history books two hundred years on (if we could be here) and read their opinions about the self-destructive stupidity of our age.

Note that there have been four IPPC reports since the series of reports were begun by the UN in 1990. The current, or fourth, IPCC report is broken into three parts which will be issued at different times over this year. I’ve taken to calling these three reports ‘sub-reports‘ to differ them from their aggregate form. After all, if we call the aggregates and the pieces all ‘reports’, it can get a bit confusing.

—————–

– Some of these articles are from the NY Times and they insist that folks have an ID and a PW in order to read their stuff. You can get these for free just by signing up. However, recently, a friend of mine suggested the website bugmenot.com :arrow: as an alternative to having to do these annoying sign ups. Check it out. Thx Bruce S. for the tip.

An American brain drain – in progress

Saturday, April 7th, 2007

This is a personal story because I know the people involved. But it is also a bigger story – a national story – because it is happening all over America.

A couple I know is moving to Britain soon. These are wonderful people who’ve added a tremendous amount to our community here. He’s a PhD Assistant Professor at a major local university and he’s also a brilliant up-and-coming young scientist who is rapidly becoming a ‘name’ in the field he’s decided to work in. He’s been in the pre-tenure publish or perish portion of his academic career now for sometime working hard and waiting to advance.

Well, a university in Britain offered him one and a half times his current salary and an immediate advance into a fully tenured position as an associate professor. His new university has decided, with the blessing of the British government, to become a major force in global environmental science and has lavished 8 million pounds on his new department. The physical research facilities he will have at his control are several times larger than what he was allocated here.

I know these folks hate to leave what they’ve built here in the fifteen years they’ve lived in our community but how could they resist an offer like that?

The National Science Foundation’s budget is being lowered year by year and all over America, scientists of all flavors are rethinking their options. Other countries haven’t been infected with our country’s current disrespect for science. They are still well aware that science IS the power card to the future while we are slipping deeper and deeper into fundamentalist conservative right-wing dreams and delusions that science is an impediment to the advance of capitalistic profit and fundamentalist religious fervor.

Do I sound bitter about all of this? I am. This country was one of the finest experiments ever manifested in human history and we are in big danger now of pissing it all away.

Years ago I read a book, Among the Believers: An Islamic Journey, by a Nobel prize winner in literature, V.S. Naipaul, in which the author traveled the full arc of the Muslim world from Morocco to Indonesia. Many things stuck with me from the book but one that really amazed me was his description of how the authors of scientific papers in Pakistan would put titles on their papers like “The Electron Potentials of Scandium Ferrous alloys as revealed by the Grace of Allah“. I thought to myself at the time that these people have fatally mixed up religion and science.

Well, if things keep on as they are in this country, I fully expect to see papers like “Advances in GSM Cell Phone Technology as approved by the Southern Baptist Convention of 2010” soon. And it is deeply scary that there is a significant portion of our population that thinks changes like this are appropriate in this day and age.

Soon, those who think that science is just an inconvenience in their path as they try to make America a fundamentalist Christian nation and those who think that our societies only exist as sandboxes in which corporations are free to corner all of the nation and world’s wealth for the few – soon these folks will have marginalized this great country and another great event in human history will have had its day in the sun and be moved into the historical also-ran category.

Our scientists are leaving for Singapore, Britain, France and a host of other places and we are the poorer everyday for this brain-drain.

I will miss my friends soon. And all of us, in not too many years, will miss what this great country once was if we continue to embrace mediocrity.

/rant off

070407 – Saturday – Change, the only constant

Saturday, April 7th, 2007

A friend’s family is going through some big changes. And when she and I talked about it the other day, she was feeling mixed about it all. She was wanting , on one hand, to embrace the changes and she was mourning a bit, perhaps, on the other hand, for the things they were going to leave behind.

I told her that I don’t think change can be avoided. In fact, when we try to avoid change, change will end up stalking us.

All life, all existence, is change. And riding over the changes are cycles. We assimilate and then we act. We design and then we build. We save and then we spend. We learn a way of life and then we transcend it. We are born, we live and we die.

If we are here for anything, we are here to experience, learn and grow. As life happens to us, we are offered choices. We can choose to try to hang onto what we have and to consolidate our gains but sooner or later, the cycle will turn and we will be called upon to strike out again and grow and learn and accumulate more experience. Those who resist are denying that change is a deep law of existence and they will come into conflict with it inevitably. Those who listen to the gentle urgings calling them out to transcendence are honoring how existence works. Those who try to stand still in the river of time, will feel the gathering press of the rising river of change.

Look around. You will see the evidence of this everywhere. People trying to hang on to their youth while time moves past them. People trying to hang onto their job, just as it is, while the corporation and its requirements evolves around them. People of a conservative bent, trying to keep their lives and their societies just as they were in an earlier day – and over the long run losing the battle as the historical dialectic unavoidably derives the present from the past and the future from the present.

See the middle-aged men who, when they were younger in their twenties, dominated the young women they were with because those ingénues were still trying to work out their places and their roles in a male dominated culture deeply infused with the iconic deceptions of the suggestive sexual role advertising blitz we all live under. Now older, these women have found their feet and their centers and they know much better who they are and what’s important. The balance of power between the sexes shifts as we age and the macho men who thrived on compliant women now find themselves playing to an unappreciative audience. A deep reevaluation or a fall into the bottle are often the only two choices faced by men who’ve never developed the art of introspection and a willingness to change and grow.

Desperado, why don’t you come to your senses?
You been out ridin’ fences for so long now.
Oh you’re a hard one, I know that you got your reasons,
These things that are pleasin’ you can hurt you somehow.

Don’t you draw the queen of diamonds, boy,
she’ll beat you if she’s able,
you know the queen of hearts is always your best bet.
Now it seems to me some fine things
have been laid upon your table
but you only want the ones that you can’t get.

Desperado, oh you ain’t gettin’ no younger,
Your pain and your hunger they’re drivin’ you home.
And freedom, oh freedom, well that’s just some people talkin’,
Your prison is walkin’ through this world all alone.

Don’t your feet get cold in the wintertime?
The sky won’t snow and the sun won’t shine,
it’s hard to tell the night time from the day.
You’re losin’ all your highs and lows,
ain’t it funny how the feelin’ goes away?

– Desperado by The Eagles

I remember my mother and the sad habits she fell into towards the end of her life. Rather than embracing life and walking into it as one might walk into a warm caressing wind, she decided to draw lines in the shifting sand and then fought to hold them. She was an alcoholic and her life settled into a repeating cycle. When she’d just emerged from a binge and she was gathering up the pieces, she would decide that if everything in her house was as neat as a pin, if she had the right job, if her finances were organized just so and if the place she lived in was quiet so that the neighbors didn’t stress her, then everything would be alright. She would fight to make it all just as she wanted it – and she would achieve it. But, always, something was missing. Politics would arise at work, the apartment, which was so quiet when she moved in, would seem to get noisier the longer she stayed. The finances she worked out so nicely would be upset when her car needed a repair. In short, the perfect world she tried to create always faltered against the chaos of reality. Today’s quiet apartment, which was so much better than the last place she’d lived, would slowly become the new status quo – and the noise levels would ‘seem’ to increase. And the only answer was to move to a quieter place again – but the problem would repeat. Further and further she painted herself into corners of her own making – resisting and denying and refusing to accept life and existence as it was and trying to make it fit her plan. And then one day, she’d have a drink, slip over the edge, lose her job, blow her finances, make her neighbors crazy, and a week later call me to come over and save her from the spiders on the wall. She’d be deep into delirium tremens and I’d spend hours assuring her she was sane and that it would all pass. Then, we would begin again.

Change is good. It’s what’s on the menu here. Enjoy what you have and remember that it all may, and probably will, change at some point. Your children grow, the face you look at in the mirror ages, the people you are competing with get smarter, everyone dies. It’s the plan, it’s the way and we can grok and embrace it and make the very best of it and ride the waves of change to maximize our growth and experience before we’re called away – or we can resist the impossible and waste the time that’s given to us.

– for Katy –

Elephant Slaughter Discovered Along African “Highways of Death”

Thursday, April 5th, 2007

– I wrote just the other day about how sad I find it that we are literally watching species pass off the face of the Earth around us and, apparently, most of us are unmoved by it.

– Here’s another small story – which is just part of the rising tide of extinctions driven by human stupidity.

—————————-

Central Africa’s growing network of roads is creating “highways of death” for critically endangered forest elephants that are being slaughtered for their ivory, conservationists warn.

New roads penetrating deep into the dense rain forests of the Congo Basin region are giving poachers better access to the last refuges of these jungle elephants, the latest research shows.

A team led by the New York-based Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS) found that forest elephant numbers plummeted near roadways due to illegal poaching.

The findings were the result of survey of 26,000 square miles (68,000 square kilometers) of protected wilderness stretching from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to southwestern Gabon (see map of Africa).

More than 50 poaching camps and 41 slaughtered elephants were discovered by the team, which has reported its findings in the journal Public Library of Science Biology.

At last count, taken in 1989, an estimated 170,000 forest elephants remained in the wild.

The current figure may be much lower, the study team warned, due to road construction fueled by logging and development that are eating into forest elephant territory.

“There’s no doubt whatsoever that numbers have seriously declined,” said WCS biologist Stephen Blake, the study’s lead author.

More…