– One of the predictions of The Perfect Storm Hypothesis is that as the geopolitical situation becomes more unstable, marginal states will begin to fail and become ungoverned disasters like Somalia. Here are some predictions about which states might go under first.
The index is compiled using the Fund for Peace’s internationally recognized methodology, the Conflict Assessment System Tool (CAST). It assesses violent internal conflicts and measures the impact of mitigating strategies. In addition to rating indicators of state failure that drive conflict, it offers techniques for assessing the capacities of core state institutions and analyzing trends in state instability.
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