Archive for December, 2007

Bali Progress, DC Deadlock

Saturday, December 15th, 2007

I haven’t written much on the meetings in Bali this past week. They turned out, perhaps, a bit better than I expected – but that isn’t saying much. The gap between what was agreed, and thus considered to be put into motion, and what actually needs to be done ASAP is, as I expected, huge.

The various countries debated about who should do what, who was responsible for what and how much should be mandatory and how much voluntary.

Does that sound like a good game plan for those who are suppose to represent our interests to come up with?  I don’t think so – not when all of us are bound together on this planet for a planet-wide disaster?  But, it’s really about what I expected.

Here’s the Council of Foreign Relations take on the agreement and its prospects in Washington, D.C.  They say it all a lot better than I could.

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Updated: December 15, 2007
Author: Toni Johnson

While a compromise deal was reached on global climate policy in Bali (LATimes), the Democratic and Republican U.S. lawmakers who attended the international climate policy conference know their work is just beginning. Barbara Boxer (D-CA), head of the Senate’s environment committee, assured Bali delegates “change is already happening in Washington.” Still, the outlook remains grim for new American climate policy in Congress. A bill that Boxer’s committee approved days before (Baltimore Sun) the Bali trip faces serious opposition from Senate Republicans who argue it will raise energy prices and cost U.S. jobs. “There are alternatives that must be considered before we move forward,” said a Republican on the panel. The climate bill could lower U.S. emissions up to 25 percent by 2020. Boxer called the bill’s approval a historic moment. But the bill may never pass, and if it does, lawmakers are unlikely to overcome an expected presidential veto. Some experts hope that similar legislation can be enacted after the next president takes office in January 2009.

In the absence of federal action, U.S. state and local governments have initiated climate proposals, some with mandatory caps. At least five hundred U.S. mayors have signed an agreement to “meet or beat” what the U.S. commitment would have been had it signed the Kyoto Protocol. Coalitions of Western states, Northeastern states, and Midwestern states—accounting for nearly half the U.S. states as well as a few Canadian provinces—have started regional initiatives, two of which seek to cut emissions 10 percent to 15 percent in the next decade. Several states already have adopted regulations capping emissions from power plants and car makers. California has enacted a law that caps emissions from all economic sectors (AP), which could reduce emissions by 25 percent in the next ten years.

Local and state officials say the lack of federal policy is forcing them to act. Business and industry see this trend of fragmenting climate policy as worrisome and have called on Washington lawmakers to craft federal policy. In a November speech, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg said mayors needed to keep innovating (PDF) and to demand those in Washington join in. But the political climate there does not look suitable yet.

At Bali, new mandatory emissions targets were resisted by other nations, too (SMHerald). And the row expected between the industrialized and developing world (read: the United States and China) did indeed materialize, nearly preventing an agreement. But the Bali conference finally found enough common ground (BBC) for a compromise, brokered by the European Union, which postpones new caps for now and looks to a final package to be hammered out in 2009.

The Europeans had wanted to clearly state a commitment to cut emissions 25 percent to 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2020. U.S. pressure helped demote the language to a footnote (AFP) in the final document’s preamble. And the language only applies to ratifiers of the Kyoto Protocol, thus excluding the United States. CFR fellow Michael Levi says just because some countries seem unwilling to settle on these issues in Bali does not preclude them from agreeing to future climate rules. The talk on emissions targets continues early next year among the 17 largest economies at U.S. hosted climate talks in Hawaii, a summit which would have faced a boycott by the EU and other states had the American delegation not relented (LATimes) to the last minute deal in Bali.

To the original article:

A new category – ‘CounterCurrents’

Saturday, December 15th, 2007

The Sky is not Falling???

Fair is fair and all sides should be presented, if one believes that information is truth and information should be free.

One of my good friends, who is a bit of a skeptic on Global Warming issues, loves to find and send me articles that indicate the reverse of the trends I often blog about.

MD is a very bright guy and I know the convictions he expresses are honest ones and so I’ve decided to honor them and articles of this type by giving them their own category here on Samadhisoft – ‘CounterCurrents‘.

I’m not going to honor mindless anti-science ravers and religious nut cases. But, if I encounter, or am shown, an article that seems to be hewn from scientific hardwood and it reveals some facet of the world that would indicate the reverse of the Perfect Storm Hypothesis, then this is where you’ll find it here.

Nothing is easier than self-deceit. For what each man wishes, that he also believes to be true.
-  Demosthenes

071216 – The Sunday Morning Report

Saturday, December 15th, 2007

In trying to get some loose measures how how life here in New Zealand is different than in the United States, I’ve come up with the Coffee Criteria.

“Wha zat?”, you say.

Well, in my small town of Monroe, back in the US, the local Starbucks coffee shops are open by 430 or 5 AM. Americans want to get an early jump on getting that 60 or 70 hour work week rolling.

Coffee !

Here in Christchurch, New Zealand, there may be a few coffee shops that open that early but I haven’t found them around here. My local shop opens at 7 AM. I’ve looked for something earlier and I’ve been disappointed. Some of us stand around for five or ten minutes in front of the place waiting for the doors to be opened and I’m sure the folks inside think we’re nuts.

Another measure of the differences? How about the Barefoot Criteria?

Yes, New Zealanders find shoes a very optional dress requirement. In the US, barefoot usually means:

– you are at home and in for the evening, or

– you are fourteen or under, it’s summer and you are playing outside or

– you are at the beach.

In NZ, barefoot means you are probably not currently attending a formal dress party.

dem feet

Toll Of Climate Change On World Food Supply Could Be Worse Than Thought

Thursday, December 13th, 2007

ScienceDaily (Dec. 4, 2007) — Global agriculture, already predicted to be stressed by climate change in coming decades, could go into steep, unanticipated declines in some regions due to complications that scientists have so far inadequately considered, say three new scientific reports. The authors say that progressive changes predicted to stem from 1- to 5-degree C temperature rises in coming decades fail to account for seasonal extremes of heat, drought or rain, multiplier effects of spreading diseases or weeds, and other ecological upsets. All are believed more likely in the future. Coauthored by leading researchers from Europe, North America and Australia, they appear in a recent issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).

“Many people assume that we will never have a problem with food production on a global scale. But there is a strong potential for negative surprises,” said Francesco Tubiello, a physicist and agricultural expert at the NASA/Goddard Institute of Space Studies who coauthored all three papers. Goddard is a member of Columbia University’s Earth Institute.

In order to keep pace with population growth, current production of grain–from which humans derive two-thirds of their protein–will probably have to double, to 4 billion tons a years before 2100. Studies in the past 10 years suggest that mounting levels of carbon dioxide in the air–believed to be the basis of human-caused climate change–may initially bolster the photosynthetic rate of many plants, and, along with new farming techniques, possibly add to some crop yields.

Between now and mid-century, higher temperatures in northerly latitudes will probably also expand lands available for farming, and bring longer growing seasons. However, these gains likely will be canceled by agricultural declines in the tropics, where even modest 1- to 2-degree rises are expected to evaporate rainfall and push staple crops over their survival thresholds. Existing research estimates that developing countries may lose 135 million hectares (334 million acres) of prime farm land in the next 50 years. After mid-century, continuing temperature rises–5 degrees C or more by then–are expected to start adversely affecting northern crops as well, tipping the whole world into a danger zone.

More:

Shrinking glaciers near crisis

Thursday, December 13th, 2007

New Zealand’s longest glacier has lost 5km to global warming and is expected to lose at least as much again if the climate keeps heating up.

The Tasman Glacier, the massive ice river that sweeps past Aoraki-Mt Cook, has already shrunk to 23km, from the formation of a 5km lake at its snout in the past 30 years.

In that time, New Zealand’s glaciers have lost almost 11 per cent – 5.8 cubic kilometres – of their ice, new research released yesterday has found.

Twelve of the largest in the Southern Alps are unlikely to return to their earlier lengths without “extraordinary cooling of the climate”, says the National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research (Niwa).

The warming climate is responsible for more than 90 per cent of the ice loss.

The report comes a day after the starkest warning yet from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which declared the impact of global warming could be “abrupt or irreversible” and no country would be spared.

Niwa said the shrinking of New Zealand’s glaciers had continued despite there being virtually no change in the amount of snow feeding them last year.

The shrinkage of the big glaciers, mostly in the Mt Cook region, is driven mainly by the formation of glacier-snout lakes – which encourage big lumps of ice to break off and accelerate the shrinkage – and surface melting.

More:

The Story of Stuff

Thursday, December 13th, 2007

This is a brilliant little QuickTime film. It is both simple enough for kids and profound enough for thoughtful adults. Follow the link for a new way of seeing your familiar world.

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The Story of Stuff
With Annie Leonard
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Egalitarianism vs. Big Money

Wednesday, December 12th, 2007

One of my frequent themes concerns the corrupting influence of big money.

We advertise many of our western societies as ‘Governments of and for their people‘. And we like slogans like, ‘One man – one vote‘. But, in truth, in our supposedly egalitarian societies, some folks are more ‘equal’ than others in getting to decide how our governments govern us. And this representational imbalance is very often the result of big money.

In the U.S., those who watch Washington, D.C., know well just how pervasive the lobbying industry is there. Wealthy individuals and powerful corporations spend lavishly to insure that laws are passed or amended to best suit their preferences and needs. This has been going on for so long and has gotten so endemic, that Americans take it all for granted.

Some Americans, and I am one, see representative democracy in the U.S. as partly, and maybe even largely, a sham. Many of the real decisions are predestined by the lobbyists and power brokers behind the scenes. Corporate America often has more say about America’s directions than the American electorate.

But, it hasn’t always been that way in the U.S. and it certainly isn’t as pervasive in many other western nations. But the general tendency for democracies to move in this direction is always there where ever the predominate ethic is Capitalism. Because where ever people gain and possess great wealth, they will inevitably try to use their wealth to alter the political landscape to make their lives easier and their fortunes bigger.

Here in New Zealand, with just over four million people, a battle is currently being fought over this issue. Led by the New Zealand Green Party, people are trying to close campaign finance loop-holes with the Electoral Finance Bill and make sure that New Zealand election results fairly represent the will of all the people and are not just reflections of the will of the wealthy few.

Predictably, those who benefit from the continued existence of these loop-holes are attacking the Electoral Finance Bill and attempting to convince folks that the bill is a attack on free speech. And those who oppose the bill are well financed and can afford to run large campaigns devoted to defeating it while those who support it struggle to find the funds to defend electoral egalitarianism.

Green Party Ad in New Zealand

The above is an ad placed in New Zealand national newspapers by the Green Party. Unfortunately, as the ad discloses, they were only able to run the ad once because they don’t have backers with deep pockets who see the Green’s policies as being in their best interests.

When those with large amounts of money use it to defend functional corruption, the only thing that can defeat them is an alert and concerned electorate.

I have hopes for this process in New Zealand. It’s a small country and people feel a closer connection to their decision makers and they have a greater sense, I believe, that New Zealand is their country and they can influence her behaviors. The idea that the government exists to serve the needs of its people is strong here. Perhaps this lingers from the years before the 80’s when New Zealand had a much more Socialist bent.

Today, I received an E-mail from the New Zealand Green Party about the new Electoral Finance Bill and where they stand on it and why. Things are so far gone in the U.S. that, frankly, I cannot imagine ever receiving something like this there.

I’ve copied the E-mail, below. I hope you’ll read through it and reflect on how much sense it makes – and how large are the forces of greed and corruption arrayed against this sort of thing – world-wide.

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Protecting free speech and fairer elections

From Green MP Metiria Turei and Green Co-leader Russel Norman

Please forward this email to as many people as you can to get the truth out there.

www.greens.org.nz/campaigns/electoralreform/

Many of you will have seen media reports and even paid advertising about the Electoral Finance Bill. Given the controversy around this Bill, we thought it was important that we wrote to you directly to explain the Green position.

The Electoral Finance Bill deals with one of the most important issues in our democracy – controls on the financing of election campaigns to protect the integrity of the ballot from the inequality of the wallet.

The Greens have had many concerns about this Bill but we have chosen to work constructively with all parties. Our aim has been to improve the laws around campaign finance so that we have a fairer election system, ensure a more level playing field, and limit the corrupting influence of large secret donations on political parties.

The opponents of campaign finance reform

However, much of the publicity that has surrounded this Bill has been one-sided and, in fact, some has even been funded by wealthy donors who want the law to stay the same. They are trying to frighten New Zealanders by saying the Bill impacts on freedom of speech – this is not true.

Some media organisations have also been running an active and misleading campaign against the Bill. Journalists have contacted us to tell us that they oppose the misleading editorial line of their papers, but it is very difficult for them to get their views across.

So what does the Bill do (and what doesn’t it do)?

· The Bill does not restrict freedom of speech – it just caps election campaign spending.
· Any person or group can purchase as much issue advertising as they want at any time.
· The Bill only places limits on how much election advertising political parties and others can purchase in an election year. That limit is $2.4m for political parties and $120,000 for any other group or individual.
· Any group or individual who purchases more than $12,000 in election ads must register with the Electoral Commission so there is transparency about who is involved in the election campaign.

The spending caps exist to stop parties spending millions on campaigning and then needing to raise those millions in donations. Once parties rely on millions in donations they become heavily influenced by those who provide the money. The caps on political parties only work if there are caps on spending by other groups, otherwise the money goes into parallel campaigns.

The Royal Commission supported spending caps

The 1986 Royal Commission on the Electoral System wrote: “It is illogical to limit spending by parties if other interests are not also controlled. Supporters or opponents of a party or candidate should not be able to promote their views without restriction merely by forming campaign organisations ‘unaffiliated’ to any party…Nor should powerful or wealthy interest groups be able to spend without restriction during an election campaign while [the parties] are restricted.”

Closing the loopholes

Those who are most strongly opposed to the Bill took advantage of two major loopholes in our electoral financing regime in 2005.

The first loophole enabled an organisation to work with a political party to run an almost identical campaign – known as parallel campaigning. This meant that the spending of the organisation was not capped even though it was a planned party election campaign.

The second loophole allowed for millions of dollars to be given to political parties without the public knowing who gave that money. Both the USA and Australian electoral systems have suffered from the corruption that arises from the secret funding of political parties.

The Greens are proud to assist in the closing of those two loopholes. This work will protect our electoral system from the threats of corruption that other similar democracies face.

It’s far from perfect

However, we still have some outstanding issues with the Bill and with the process for these electoral law reforms. We are still pursing the option of a citizens’ assembly which would allow for a number of randomly selected citizens to consider the issues of electoral finance and to find the best system for New Zealand. This system has been used successfully in Canada and we believe that the people of New Zealand should be able to make these decisions.

We have not achieved the ban on anonymous donations over $1000 that is our policy. However we have severely restricted the anonymous donations that can be received by both a third party and a political party. This is a major change in the law and goes someway towards a system that is open about who is funding political campaigns.

Changes the Greens achieved in the Bill

In summary, the Greens have made the following amendments:

Amendments to protect freedom of speech

1. Alter the definition of election advertising to protect issues advertising. This means that individuals and groups will be free to campaign on the issues that are important to them, regardless of whether one or more parties is also campaigning on the same issue. The Greens come from a campaigning background and we were determined to protect the right of groups to continue to campaign. For example, Greenpeace can continue to campaign against whaling, even though it is a campaign the Green Party has a profile on.

2. Remove the requirement for a statutory declaration for spending less than the threshold. This means that people or groups don’t have to sign a statutory declaration every time they spend money under the threshold for listing as a third party. It was an unnecessary burden that performed no useful function.

3. Lift the cap on election spending by non-party groups from $60,000 to $120,000. Many groups and individuals engage in election advertising during campaign year. This advertising encourages voters to support parties that adopt certain policy positions. The Bill as introduced limited this spending to $60,000. The Greens have supported amendments that increase this limit to $120,000, 5% of the $2.4m party limit and twice that originally proposed.

4. Lift the spending limit at which a group must list as a third party from $5000 to $12,000. This was important because many groups and people engage in election advertising through pamphlets, newsletters or community newspaper adverts. These ordinary election activities should not require a person or group to have to list as a third party where the spending is under $12,000.

5. Enable under 18 year olds and permanent residents to be able to list as a third party. We fought for the inclusion of this because it is a breach of the rights of a citizen to be prevented from engaging in election advertising activities simply because they are not old enough to vote. This change also means that groups will not be excluded from listing as a third party simply because one member is under 18 years old.

6. Protect donations to groups that are not for election purposes. This means that groups that register as third party participants in the election will not have to declare any donations that are not specifically for election purposes.
Groups are entitled to raise and collect money for their regular activities without interference. Only donations given specifically for electioneering will need to be disclosed.

Amendment to restrict anonymous donations

7. Severely restrict anonymous donations to political and third parties. The Greens insisted on an anonymous donations regime that will restrict Labour and National’s ability to raise money through anonymous donations. Our policy is that all donations over $1000 should be identified as to the true source – they shouldn’t be listed as anonymous nor should they be hidden behind secret trusts.

In negotiations over this bill we have made progress towards achieving our policy by introducing a system that will limit political parties to a total anonymous donations income, for donations over $1000, of 10% of their spending cap over the three year electoral cycle – this would cut Labour’s anonymous donations income by at least half and National’s secret trust income by about 90%. Labour and National don’t like it but we make no apologies for this.

In addition the money must be passed via the Electoral Commission to distance the parties from the process and donors must identify themselves to the Electoral Commission and give an assurance that they are not telling the parties about the donation on the sly. There is a limit of $36,000 on how much any one donor can give to a political party via this mechanism.

If you have any further questions, please don’t hesitate to ask us by emailing Metiria.Turei@parliament.govt.nz or Russel.Norman@greens.org.nz.

We hope that you have an enjoyable break over the holidays with time to spend with your family and friends. And we also hope you get to spend some time enjoying the natural environment that makes New Zealand such an incredible place to live.

Best wishes

Metiria and Russel

Metiria is the Green MP responsible for the Bill in the House; Russel is Spokesperson on Electoral Matters.

071212 – Wednesday – a day in the life

Wednesday, December 12th, 2007

It’s been a laid back mixed day. A bit of this and a bit of that. It was hot and humid here yesterday. My Kiwi friends tell me we’ll only see two or three days like that in a year. Today, it was warm and humid again – but with rain on and off all day. It reminded me of the warm summer rains in Texas.

I put the new plate on the bike and the registration after I rode to get some parts. Then, a bit later, I went to South City Mall and had a vanilla milkshake and bought some groceries.

I rode around time several times today in the light warm rain – careful because the streets were probably slick but feeling pretty good – now that I am totally legal.

At lunch and again tonight, I had Thai left overs from my dinner party last night with Graham, Judy and Keith, my Kiwi friends and tennis partners downstairs. They’ve been really good to Sharon and I. I had them over for the evening and bought Thai takeout.

Scattered through the day I talked to Sharon at home twice and caught up on how her feet are healing from her surgery. It’s been three days now and it is beginning to get better.

I also finished a modification to a WordPress Blog Plug-in called WP-Members which allows a WordPress blog owner to secure the blog so that only folks who have registered and been given a password can access secured parts of the site. My friend Katy needed this and since I’m busy learning php and WordPress internals, it was a good little project.

Tonight, I watched an old SciFi movie on Prime called “Species” . it was basically a waste of time.

As I do everyday, I scanned through a lot of blogs and news items and picked out a few. The big news environmentally is the meeting in Bali. The IPCC has issued another strong statement and Al Gore is there rallying folks.

Notable was an article on the fact that some folks are saying now that they haven’t much faith in Biofuels. I haven’t had much faith in them for some time. For the most part, they represent a strategy of denial through diversion. Rather than deal with the fact that we can’t go on as we are, we try to work out some way that we can. But I doubt any of these diversions has any real chance of allowing us to dodge the bullet.

In another story, some scientists are beginning to say publicly what many have been feeling for some time – that we are not going to be able, at this late date, to curb our carbon output sufficiently to avoid significant climate change.

Peak Oil is a hot topic but in my view, its importance has been receding. Oh, we will peak on oil production but the back side of the slope will not be a precipitous drop. As the price of oil rises, the pain oil producers will be willing to go through to find and produce more of the stuff will increase. So, it will be a long slow decline and unfortunately, the very efforts that they will go through to find and refine more of the stuff will, in and of itself, be very destructive to the planet. We could, of course, begin to swear off oil as a bad way to go, but we won’t. Too many habits, too much invested and too much disbelief that the consequences of continuing with oil are really going to be bad. Just in the last two weeks there were three reports , , and of new sources of oil that have either just been discovered or which have become economically viable with the price of oil near $100 US. Research thanks to Mike D. on these three.

I always recommend the IPCC reports to folks if they want to get a good grounding in what’s going on by the most authoritative folks around. Here’s another good summary based on the IPCC’s data and reporting.

On any given day, I could find several reports of this kind. That’s not difficult. What’s difficult is deciding what, if anything, to do about it. To some extent, this blog is me thinking out-loud about it.

I’m one month into my three month sojourn to New Zealand this year. Things are now well settled and I can feel some contemplation time opening up. That will be nice.

071210 – End of the Motorcycle saga

Monday, December 10th, 2007

Well, I imagine most of you are quite sick of hearing about the great motorcycle saga. I am as well.

Today, about 2 PM, the garage my m/c was in called to say the parts shipped from Dunedin on Thursday had finally found their way to Christchurch Monday morning, had been installed and all was well with the beast. The starter motor brushes had been the problem and no new battery was required.

About 15 minutes after that news, the NZ Post showed up and delivered my DHL package with my m/c title in it. Given all the problems, I remained skeptical until the very end and only believed I had the actual title after I’d opened the package and gazed at it for a bit.

So, tomorrow, I drop the machine at the inspection station and I will have the original title and the required brake inspection so unless they find some mechanical fault, I should be legally registered by tomorrow evening.

It’s been quite an adventure. Thanks for reading along.

1985 Honda CB700SC - now a Kiwi motorcycle

Dakota Indians’ tribal wisdom

Sunday, December 9th, 2007

Dakota Indians’ tribal wisdom says that when you discover that you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount.

However in many large organizations (e.g. the civil service, government, local government and some companies), more advanced strategies are often employed.

These Include:

Buying a bigger stronger whip

Changing riders

Appointing a committee to study the horse.

Arranging to visit other countries to see how other cultures ride horses.

Lowering the standards so that the dead horses can be accommodated.

Reclassifying the dead horse as living impaired.

Hiring outside contractors to ride the dead horse.

Harnessing several dead horses together to increase speed.

Providing additional funding and/or training to increase the dead horse’s performance

Doing a productivity study to see if lighter riders could improve the dead horse’s performance.

Declaring that because the dead horse does not have to be fed it is less costly and therefore contributes more substantially to the “bottom line” than do living horses.

Rewriting the expected performance requirements for all horses.

And of course the favourite

Promoting the dead horse to a supervisory or managerial position.