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Last year, for the first time since avian flu emerged as a global threat, the number of human cases was down from the year before. As the illness receded, the scary headlines — with their warnings of a pandemic that could kill 150 million people — all but vanished.

But avian flu has not gone away. Nor has it become less lethal or less widespread in birds. Experts argue that preparations against it have to continue, even if the virus’s failure to mutate into a pandemic strain has given the world more breathing room.

There were 86 confirmed human cases last year compared with 115 in 2006, according to the World Health Organization, and 59 deaths compared with 79. Experts assume that the real numbers are several times larger, because many cases are missed, but that is still a far cry from a pandemic.

Dr. David Nabarro, the senior United Nations coordinator for human and avian flu, recently conceded that he worried somewhat less than he did three years ago. “Not because I think the threat has changed,” he quickly added, but because the response to it has gotten so much better.”

The world is clearly more prepared. Vaccines have been developed. Stockpiles of Tamiflu and masks have grown. Many countries, cities, companies and schools have written pandemic plans. The European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, created in Stockholm in 2005, just estimated that the European Union needed “another two to three years of hard work and investment” to be ready for a pandemic, but that is improving because previous estimates were for five years.

In the worst-hit countries — all poor — laboratories have become faster at flu tests. Government veterinarians now move more quickly to cull chickens. Hospitals have wards for suspect patients, and epidemiologists trace contacts and treat all with Tamiflu — a tactic meant to encircle and snuff outbreaks before the virus can adapt itself to humans.

Bernard Vallat, director general of the World Organization for Animal Health, recently called the virus “extremely stable” and, thus, less likely to mutate into a pandemic form. Many prominent virologists would vehemently disagree. But others who argued three years ago that H5N1 would not “go pandemic” are feeling a bit smug.

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– Ah yes, I believe they were quite smug on the Titanic as well.

– This article is from the NY Times and they insist that folks have an ID and a PW in order to read their stuff. You can get these for free just by signing up. However, a friend of mine suggests the website bugmenot.com as an alternative to having to do these annoying sign ups. Check it out. Thx Bruce S. for the tip.

The bird flu epidemic in the Indian state of West Bengal has inched closer to the capital, Calcutta, with an outbreak reported close to the city.

Tests on dead birds from Balagarh, less than a two-hour drive from Calcutta, have tested positive for the disease.

Nine of the state’s 19 districts have been already hit by the flu. Officials say more than 2m birds would be culled.

The H5N1 strain of bird flu is regarded as highly pathogenic and can also cause disease and death in humans.

Health experts have warned that the outbreak could get out of control.

No cases of human infection have still been reported though a member of the culling team has been admitted to hospital with respiratory disorder and fever.

State animal husbandry minister Anisur Rehman said the government had a “long way to go” in culling the targeted two million birds.

Only a third of the target has been achieved – barely 700,000 birds have been culled in the last 10 days.

“More culling teams are needed in all the affected districts but these are things that cannot be hurried. The men in the culling teams have to be quarantined first before they can be asked to start the operations,” Mr Rehman said.

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Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) — An outbreak of avian flu in India’s West Bengal state is “serious” and the virus has spread rapidly to many districts, the World Health Organization’s representative said.

The outbreak is the 10th in India since the H5N1 avian influenza virus was first reported to have killed poultry there in February 2006. No human cases have been recorded in India.

India has the capacity to handle the situation as the “fundamentals of planning are sound,” S.J. Habayeb, the organization’s representative in the South Asian nation, said in an interview conducted over e-mail.

The disease has spread to more districts in West Bengal, taking the total number to nine, Farm Minister Sharad Pawar said in New Delhi today. “We are trying to control the situation.”

The government has stepped up culling, with the total number of chickens killed almost doubling to 414,597 today from the 242,200 reported yesterday, according to the agriculture ministry. India confirmed the disease among poultry in the state on Jan. 15.

As many as 116,203 chickens have died from the virus, the ministry said in the release. Samples from six districts have tested negative. About 258 teams have been deployed for culling and surveillance operations in West Bengal, the ministry added.

`Backyard Culling’

“The main problem we are facing is culling in the backyards,” Anisur Rahman, West Bengal’s animal resources minister, said in a telephone interview from the state capital of Kolkata, also known as Calcutta. “In other places, where the disease was reported, the farmers carried their poultry to a central farm in a village. Here, volunteers have to go to each house and convince farmers to do the culling.”

The teams, working in the villages, have gone up from 400 to 650 today, Rahman said.

“Culling is going on at a rapid pace,” he said. “At the same time, we are faced with a situation where poultry is being tested positive from new areas which are far-flung.”

The virus is known to have infected 351 people in 14 countries since late 2003, killing 219 of them, the Geneva-based World Health Organization said on its Web site two days ago. Indonesia has the highest number of fatalities, with 97 deaths.

Millions could die if the H5N1 virus develops the characteristics of seasonal flu and begins spreading easily between humans through coughing and sneezing.

Early signs of the disease range from fever and coughing to diarrhea and vomiting, researchers said in a Jan. 17 report in the New England Journal of Medicine.

Original article… ➡

Officials in the Indian state of West Bengal say that the bird flu epidemic has spread to two more of the state’s 19 districts, taking the total to nine.

They say that the spread of the H5N1 virus means that even more chicken and duck will have to be killed than was originally estimated.

On Monday officials said that around 2m birds would need to be culled – a figure that will now rise.

Health experts have warned that the outbreak could get out of control.

The H5N1 strain of bird flu is regarded as highly pathogenic and can also cause disease and death in humans.

However, most human victims have contracted the disease through close contact with affected birds.

There is little evidence that the virus can be transmitted easily between humans.

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– “There is little evidence that the virus can be transmitted easily between humans.” Many scientists studying the H5N1 virus feel that the virus could be one or two mutations away from developing a form that would travel easily from human to human – similar to what happened in 1917 when the Spanish Flu swept the world and killed millions.

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