Archive for the ‘Desertification’ Category

UN issues desertification warning

Thursday, July 12th, 2007

Tens of millions of people could be driven from their homes by encroaching deserts, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and Central Asia, a report says.

The study by the United Nations University suggests climate change is making desertification “the greatest environmental challenge of our times”.

If action is not taken, the report warns that some 50 million people could be displaced within the next 10 years.

The study was produced by more than 200 experts from 25 countries.

This report does not pull any punches, says BBC environment reporter Matt McGrath.

One third of the Earth’s population – home to about two billion people – are potential victims of its creeping effect, it says.

“Desertification has emerged as an environmental crisis of global proportions, currently affecting an estimated 100 to 200 million people, and threatening the lives and livelihoods of a much larger number,” the study said.

The overexploitation of land and unsustainable irrigation practices are making matters worse, while climate change is also a major factor degrading the soil, it says.

People displaced by desertification put new strains on natural resources and on other societies nearby and threaten international instability, the study adds.

“There is a chain reaction. It leads to social turmoil,” said Zafaar Adeel, the study’s lead author and head of the UN University’s International Network on Water, Environment and Health.

The largest area affected was probably sub-Saharan Africa, where people are moving to northern Africa or to Europe, while the second area is the former Soviet republics in central Asia, he added.

More…

To the full PDF version of the UN report:

Pollution ‘hits China’s farmland’

Thursday, April 26th, 2007

China’s a time bomb just ticking away. Their government has to walk several dangerous tightropes just to keep the place together:

One is between Capitalism and environmental destruction. Capitalism keeps China’s people under control because they feel that they are getting wealthier and have a future to look forward to. But the resulting environmental destruction is significant because it will ultimately produce a very ugly end to the party.

Another tightrope China walks is between the wealth of the coastal cities and the deep poverty of the inner regions of China. They’ve already instituted draconian measures to keep the folks down-on-ther-farms down there so that they can continue to grow food for the wealthy folks in the city but you can just imagine how popular that is. The tension between the haves and have nots in China draws tighter every year.

And then there’s the tension between how much central control the Communist Party can exert to control the society through control of information, human rights abuses, Internet blocking, religious persecution and one-party rule vs. how open and free running the place needs to be to realize the power of its booming Capitalistic expansion.

-The entire place is like a corporation growing at maximum speed. One mistake with, for example, the cash-flow calculations and the entire edifice could tumble. Heady but very dangerous stuff.

So, now add in the desertification destroying much of the country west of Beijing . Add in the Yangtze River, polluted beyond recovery , add in the story below about pollution hitting China’s farmlands.

Add in several other stories that have been posted here regarding China and her problems: .

Add them in – and ask how long do you think China can walk these highwires and what do you think will happen when they stumble?

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More than 10% of China’s farm land is polluted, posing a “severe threat” to the nation’s food production, state media reports.

Arable land shrank by nearly 307,000 hectares (760,000 acres) in the first 10 months of 2006, government officials were quoted as saying.

Excessive fertiliser use, polluted water, heavy metals and solid wastes are to blame, the reports said.

Rapid economic growth has had a damaging impact on China’s environment.

Its cities, countryside, waterways and coastlines are among the most polluted in the world.

The Ministry of Land and Resources said agricultural land in China fell to 121.8 million hectares (300 million acres) by the end of October 2006 – a loss of 306,800 hectares since the start of the year.

Heavy metals alone contaminate 12m tonnes of grain each year, causing annual losses of 20bn yuan ($2.6bn), China’s Xinhua news agency quoted the ministry as saying.

Land and Resources Minister Sun Wensheng said agricultural land in China must not be allowed to fall below 120 million hectares.

“This is not only related to social and economic development, but is also vital to the long-term interests of the country,” he was quoted as saying.

China’s government has promised to spend heavily to clean up the country’s heavily polluted environment.

But clean-up efforts are often thwarted by lax enforcement of laws and administrative activity at a local level, correspondents say.

To the original story…

To Fortify China, Soybean Harvest Grows in Brazil

Tuesday, April 10th, 2007

– I’ve been pointing out for some time that as China’s ability to feed itself begins to falter due to increasing population, eating higher on the food chain as a result of growing affluence, desertification and diminishing water supplies, they will inevitably draw from their huge balance of trade surplus funds and simply go out into the world market and buy what they need with impunity. It makes sense – who wouldn’t?

– But, while it makes sense for them, it is inevitably going to wreak havoc with the affordability and availability of food supplies for the rest of the world with a special emphasis on the world’s poorer nations. And this, in turn, will lead to social unrest and increasing political fundamentalism as no one likes to starve quietly.

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RONDONÓPOLIS, Brazil — For more than 2,000 years, the Chinese have turned soybeans into tofu, a staple of the country’s diet.

But as its economy grows, so does China’s appetite for pork, poultry and beef, which require higher volumes of soybeans as animal feed. Plagued by scarce water supplies, China is turning to a new trading partner 15,000 miles away — Brazil — to supply more protein-packed beans essential to a richer diet.

China’s global scramble for natural resources is leading to a transformation of agricultural trading around the world. In China, vanishing cropland and diminishing water supplies are hampering the country’s ability to feed itself, and the increasing use of farmland in the United States to produce biofuels is pushing China to seek more of its staples from South America, where land is still cheap and plentiful.

“China is out there beating the bushes,” said Robert L. Thompson, a professor at the University of Illinois who is a former director of agricultural and rural development at the World Bank. The goal, he said, is “to ensure they have access to long-term contracts for minerals and energy and food.”

More…

– This article is from the NY Times and they insist that folks have an ID and a PW in order to read their stuff. You can get these for free just by signing up. However, recently, a friend of mine suggested the website bugmenot.com :arrow: as an alternative to having to do these annoying sign ups. Check it out. Thx Bruce S. for the tip.

Biofuels: An Advisable Strategy?

Friday, March 9th, 2007

– I’ve been reading about Biofuels for some time now and I’ve seen that they are creating a lot of hope and optimism that they may ‘save’ us from, or at least help alleviate some of, our coming energy problems.

– I’ve had my doubts. Back behind the glowing articles have been a few darker ones which don’t seem to be getting the same degree of ‘play’ as the optimistic ones.

– These ‘other’ points of view have been pointing out that most of the world’s arable land is already in use and that to grow biofuels to cut our dependence on Oil and Gas, we cannot help but begin to cut into the land we’re using now to grow the food we eat. So, in the end, if we grow significant quantities of biofuel, we will grow less food – and this will drive food prices up strongly.

– It is true that to grow food or to grow biofuels is to use renewable resources but the renewability concept has its limits. You cannot use trees from the forests or fish from the seas faster than they can replenish themselves and you cannot grow more than a certain amount of crops on the earth – given that the total amount of arable land is limited (and will continue to diminish as global warming and desertification continue).

– The European Union has, up until now, been sanguine about integrating biofuels into their crop mix. But, now they’ve done a careful full-cost analysis of how effective biofuels really are and they are beginning to have their doubts.

– The summary from the end of this article is especially interesting:

Summing up, biodiesel cannot contribute to the solution of the problems related to the high dependency of our economy on fossil fuels. The idea that biodiesel could be a solution for the energy crisis is not only false, but also dangerous. In fact, it might favour an attitude of technological optimism and faith in a technological fix of the energy problem. We should never forget that if we want to reduce the use of fossil fuels there is no magic wand: the only possible solution is to modify consumption patterns.

– Read on, dear reader.

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Science Daily Biofuels have been an increasingly hot topic on the discussion table in the last few years. The main argument behind the policies in favour of biofuels is based on the idea that biofuels would not increase the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. However, a more careful analysis of the life cycle of biodiesel reveals that the energy (and CO2) savings is not so high as expected. It might even be negative.

In 2003 the European Union introduced a Directive suggesting that Member states should increase the share of biofuels in the energy used for transport to 2% by 2005 and 5.75% by 2010.

In 2005 the target was not reached and it will probably not be reached in 2010 either (we are in 2006 at approximately 0.8%), but in any case, the Directive showed the great interest that the European Commission places on biofuels as a way to solve many problems at once. The new European energy strategy, presented on 10th January 2007, establishes that biofuels should represent at least 10% of the energy used for transport .

Biofuels are not competitive with fossil fuel-derived products if left to the market. In order to make their price similar to those of petrol and diesel, they need to be subsidized. In Europe, biofuels are subsidized in three ways:

1) agricultural subsidies, mainly granted within the framework of the Common Agricultural Policy

2) total or partial de-taxation, which is indispensable, because energy taxes account for approximately half of the final price of petrol and diesel

3) biofuels obligations, which establish that the fuels sold at the pump must contain a given percentage of biofuels

These three political measures need financial means, which are paid for by the European Commission (agricultural subsidies), by the governments (reduced energy revenues), and by car drivers (increase in the final fuel price). For this reason, an integrated analysis is needed in order to discuss whether investing public resources in biofuels and employing a large extension of agricultural land is the most advisable strategy to solve the problems associated with fossil fuels.

More…

DIRE WARNINGS FROM CHINA’S FIRST CLIMATE CHANGE REPORT

Thursday, December 28th, 2006

– Someone once commented that few people will just lie down and starve quietly.China’s ability to feed itself is near an edge and it shows no signs of reigning in the population’s dreams of western style affluence.  Its water tables are falling and temperatures are rising. When the food does run short, it will uncork its vast coffers of trade-surplus money and wade into the international food markets to buy food to stave off social instability at home and this, in turn, will drive food prices beyond the reach of many in marginal nations and global stability will be well on its way down the slippery slope.

– China is a coming global train wreck, powering into the dead-end alley of more growth and more consumption with the pedal to the metal and this report is merely a small note someone tossed off the train as it passed.

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BEIJING (AFP) Temperatures in China will rise significantly in coming decades and water shortages will worsen, state media has reported, citing the government’s first national assessment of global climate change.

Greenhouse gases released due to human activity are leading to ever more serious problems in terms of climate change,” the Ministry of Science and Technology said in a statement.

Global climate change has an impact on the nation’s ability to develop further,” said the ministry, one of 12 government departments that prepared the report.

In just over a decade, global warming will start to be felt in the world’s most populous country, and it will get warmer yet over the next two or three generations.

Compared with 2000, the average temperatures will increase by between 1.3 and 2.1 degrees Celsius by 2020, the China News Service reported, citing the assessment.

By the middle of the century, the annual average temperature in China will rise by as much as 3.3 degrees Celsius (more than five degrees Fahrenheit), and by 2100 it could soar by as much as six degrees Celsius, according to the news service.

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Desertification

Thursday, August 3rd, 2006

Desertification, the process of converting productive land to wasteland through overuse and mismanagement, is unfortunately all too common. Anything that removes protective grass or trees leaves soil vulnerable to wind and water erosion. In the early stages of desertification, the finer particles of soil are removed by the wind, creating dust storms. Once the fine particles are removed, then the coarser particles–the sand–are also carried by the wind in localized sand storms.

Large-scale desertification is concentrated in Asia and Africa–two regions that together contain nearly 4.8 billion of the world’s 6.5 billion people. Populations in countries across the top of Africa are being squeezed by the northward advance of the Sahara.

In the vast east-to-west swath of semiarid Africa between the Sahara Desert and the forested regions to the south lies the Sahel, a region where farming and herding overlap. In countries stretching from Senegal and Mauritania in the west to Sudan, Ethiopia, and Somalia in the east, the demands of growing human and livestock numbers are converting more and more land into desert.

Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, is losing 351,000 hectares of rangeland and cropland to desertification each year. While Nigeria’s human population was growing from 33 million in 1950 to 132 million in 2005, a fourfold expansion, its livestock population grew from roughly 6 million to 66 million, an 11-fold increase. With the forage needs of Nigeria’s 15 million cattle and 51 million sheep and goats exceeding the sustainable yield of the country’s grasslands, the northern part of the country is slowly turning to desert. If Nigeria continues toward 258 million people as projected by 2050, the deterioration will only accelerate.

Iran is also losing its battle with the desert. Mohammad Jarian, who heads Iran’s Anti-Desertification Organization, reported in 2002 that sand storms had buried 124 villages in the southeastern province of Sistan-Baluchistan, forcing their abandonment. Drifting sands had covered grazing areas, starving livestock and depriving villagers of their livelihood.

Neighboring Afghanistan is faced with a similar situation. The Registan Desert is migrating westward, encroaching on agricultural areas. A U.N. Environment Programme (UNEP) team reports that up to 100 villages have been submerged by windblown dust and sand. In the country’s northwest, sand dunes are moving onto agricultural land in the upper reaches of the Amu Darya basin, their path cleared by the loss of stabilizing vegetation from firewood gathering and overgrazing. The UNEP team observed sand dunes 15 meters high blocking roads, forcing residents to establish new routes.

China is being affected by desertification more than any other major country. Wang Tao, Director of the Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, describes the country’s accelerating desertification. He reports that from 1950 to 1975 an average of 1,560 square kilometers of land were lost to desert each year. Between 1975 and 1987, this climbed to 2,100 square kilometers a year. From then until the century’s end, it jumped to 3,600 square kilometers of land going to desert annually.

China is now at war. It is not invading armies that are claiming its territory, but expanding deserts. Old deserts are advancing and new ones are forming like guerrilla forces striking unexpectedly, forcing Beijing to fight on several fronts. Wang Tao reports that over the last half-century, some 24,000 villages in northern and western China have been entirely or partly abandoned as a result of being overrun by drifting sand.

People in China are all too familiar with the dust storms that originate in its northwest and in western Mongolia, but the rest of the world typically learns about this fast-growing ecological catastrophe from the massive dust storms that travel outside the region. On April 18, 2001, the western United States–from the Arizona border north to Canada–was blanketed with dust. It came from a huge dust storm that originated in northwestern China and Mongolia on April 5. Measuring 1,800 kilometers across when it left China, the storm carried millions of tons of topsoil, a vital resource that will take centuries to replace through natural processes.

Almost exactly one year later, on April 12, 2002, South Korea was engulfed by a huge dust storm from China that left people in Seoul literally gasping for breath. Schools were closed, airline flights were cancelled, and clinics were overrun with patients having difficulty breathing. Retail sales fell. Koreans have come to dread the arrival of what they now call the fifth season, the dust storms of late winter and early spring.

These two dust storms, among the 10 or so major dust storms that occur each year in China, are one of the externally visible indicators of the ecological catastrophe unfolding in northern and western China. Overgrazing is the principal culprit.

A U.S. Embassy report entitled Desert Mergers and Acquisitions describes satellite images showing two deserts in north-central China expanding and merging to form a single, larger desert overlapping Inner Mongolia and Gansu provinces. To the west in Xinjiang Province, two even larger deserts–the Taklimakan and Kumtag–are also heading for a merger. Highways running through the shrinking regions between them are regularly inundated by sand dunes.

In Latin America, deserts are expanding in both Brazil and Mexico. In Brazil, where some 58 million hectares of land are affected, economic losses from desertification are estimated at $300 million per year, much of it concentrated in the country’s northeast. Mexico, with a much larger share of arid and semiarid land, is even more vulnerable. The degradation of cropland now prompts some 700,000 Mexicans to leave the land each year in search of jobs in nearby cities or in the United States.

In scores of countries, the overgrazing, overplowing, and overcutting that are driving the desertification process are intensifying as the growth in human and livestock numbers continues. Stopping the desertification process from claiming more productive land may now rest on stopping the growth in human and livestock numbers.

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The above is adapted from Chapter 5, Natural Systems Under Stress, in Lester R. Brown, Plan B 2.0: Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2006), also available on-line in PDF form here:

Ecology and Political Upheaval

Wednesday, June 28th, 2006

Jeffrey D. Sachs of the Earth Institute has written an article saying that small changes in climate can cause wars, topple governments and crush economies already strained by poverty. I agree with this and consider it part of the Perfect Storm of unfolding future events that I’m always talking about.

I’m not at all sure that he goes far enough, however. Civilization, in many ways, is like a house of cards we’ve been building. Year by year, we build it higher and year by year it balances and hangs together but ever more precariously.

I think that other factors, which are part of the Perfect Storm hypothesis, are also more than capable of creating the same disruptions. Consider desertification or the falling water tables around the world. Consider the ever growing national debt of the United States. Consider the growing disparity between the rich and the poor. Consider impending Peak Oil. And finally, consider the effects of Globalization.

Each of these has the ability to drive us through tipping points into the chaos beyond. All that is required is that something essential like food or water or the petroleum needed to produce our food should go into short supply.

Globalization is making the house-of-cards particularly fragile. Its been pasting wide-spread economies together and making them dependent on each other. Once chaos begins from any cause, these fragile links will break and the economies who’ve unwisely become dependent on them will stumble badly too as a result.

It’s all interconnected and finely balanced and the are multiple issues ticking down to tipping time. So, Sachs is right but I just don’t think he’s cast a wide enough net yet to catch the full scope of the futures waiting for us in the wings of the next decade or two.

Here’s the beginning of Sach’s article and a link to the rest:

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Careful study of the long-term climate record has shown that even a minor shock to the system can cause an enormous change in outcome, a nonlinear response that has come to be called “abrupt climate change.” Less well recognized is that our social and economic systems are also highly sensitive to climate perturbations. Seemingly modest fluctuations in rainfall, temperature and other meteorological factors can create havoc in vulnerable societies.

Recent years have shown that shifts in rainfall can bring down governments and even set off wars. The African Sahel, just south of the Sahara, provides a dramatic and poignant demonstration. The deadly carnage in Darfur, Sudan, for example, which is almost always discussed in political and military terms, has roots in an ecological crisis directly arising from climate shocks. Darfur is an arid zone with overlapping, growing populations of impoverished pastoralists (tending goats, cattle and camels) and sedentary farmers. Both groups depend on rainfall for their livelihoods and lives. The average rainfall has probably declined in the past few decades but is in any case highly variable, leaving Darfur prone to drought. When the rains faltered in the 1980s, violence ensued. Communities fought to survive by raiding others and attempting to seize or protect scarce water and food supplies.

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