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A big picture snapshot

Wednesday, December 9th, 2009

- A friend wrote me the other day about CO2 and said that most of the folks who are out there talking about CO2 and its dangers sound a bit like Chicken Little.  He said there must be places out there on the web where one can get a more balanced presentation of the issues.  And asked if I could direct him to such.

- I’m not sure I answered his questions as effectively as I might have.  I could have, for instance, done some research and tried to find web sites for him with more balanced presentations around CO2 and its issues.

- But, instead, I decided to tell him how and why the debate over CO2 has gotten to be so shrill and why many folks these days are sounding like Chicken Little.

- I think the explanation of why things have gotten so shrill is well worth repeating to a wider audience and so I’ve reproduced my friend’s questions and my responses below.

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Dennis,

I know your position on global warming.   Here are my thoughts:   First any thing that would get us untangled from the Middle East and every one else that we buy oil from would be a godsend.   Most people don’t realize that Canada and Mexico are our biggest suppliers.   Being tied to any other country the way we are is a bad thing.   I don’t think the oil/coal industries will are willing to have any change in the status quo until the last ounce of oil and coal is gone.   I think they control, to one extent or another, our government.   I believe that without their influence, we would have made massive changes by now.

Now, I would like to understand more about CO2.  I am not ignorant of the chemistry or of the geological history.   My problems is when I hear the side describing the downsides of CO2 they are so one sided that they sound like Chicken Little.

Even though the CO2 increase has great potential for mass disruption of the world’s ecological balance, there must be a little of this that is being balanced by natural processes.   Perhaps,  just not at a rate that we can accept.   Could you send me some web sites with a little balance?

Dave C.

=== and my response:

Dave,

You are right.  The oil/gas/coal industries are not going to recognize the global climate change effects their products produce.   If they did, it would cost them personally a pile of money.   And yes, they do have a huge effect on governments all over the world – especially the U.S. government.

Your question about CO2 is an excellent one and I wish I could do a better job of answering it.

When you say that the people describing the coming problems from rising CO2 levels sound like Chicken Little, I have to agree.   But, you need to also reflect on how the situation got to be like that.

First off, think about the fact that scientific discoveries don’t usually come up for public debate.

And consider that science comes up with some wild and almost unbelievable discoveries fairly often.   Take Dark Matter and Dark Energy for two things.   And Quantum Physics and all of its weird ideas like entanglement and action at a distance.   And the fact that really small things like electrons are not really in one place or another but rather exist in a small cloud of probability that hovers near where we think it actually is.  And how about relativity with its ideas that time slows down as your speed get closer and closer to the speed of light?

All that stuff was discovered by science and it beggared the imagination for most of us.  But people (most of them anyway), didn’t stand up and begin to argue passionately against these new findings.

And almost EVERYTHING you and I see around us in the world today is the product of science.   Telephones, electronics, plastics, microwaves, space shuttles, nylon and the list could go on and on for years.  It is hard to find much that we use that isn’t in some way or another the direct product of science and scientific research.   Not many people will stand up and claim that the chemistry that led to developing nylon is wrong.  Or that the laws describing voltage, current and resistance are wrong.

So what’s different about science’s findings about global climate change?

Well, you already said it.   It’s the money.  It’s the vested interests.  It’s what folks will stand to lose if the theories about CO2 and global climate change are true.  And it is big.  If this stuff is true, it means nothing less than that we have to simply reorganized how we do business on this Earth.  Almost everything about how most of us live is going to have to change some if we want to continue to live on this planet without turning it into a hell.

So, that’s a big big change that will result if we listen to what the scientists are saying.  It’s going to cost big oil/gas/coal billions of dollars.  It’s going to change the geopolitical balance between nations, it’s going to mean that ordinary folks like you and I and Joe Six-pack are all going to have to do things differently.

But nobody likes to lose money, nobody likes to lose political power and nobody likes to change their familiar and comfortable life-style.   Joe Six-pack doesn’t want to hear that his big two smoke-stack turbo diesel truck is bad for the planet and we can’t afford to have it running around any more.  The folks making money cutting down the Amazon rain forest don’t want to hear it.  The fishermen fishing the fish in the sea into extinction don’t want to hear it.   The folks buying cheap shit at Wal-Mart, don’t want to hear it.

And that brings these findings of the scientists right smack up against human nature.

And that human nature doesn’t want to change and it will begin to squirm and look for every reason and excuse it can to dodge the bullet and to avoid having to change, or lose money or whatever it is.

When the scientists decided that 70% of the entire universe was made of dark matter a few years ago, no one demonstrated in the streets or began to talk against it on the Rush Limbaugh show.   It didn’t get into anyone’s back pocket – so they didn’t care.

But CO2 and Global Climate Change is going to get into all our back pockets – big time.

Let me take you back and give you some history.   I learned what I’m going to tell you from a book entitled, Red Sky at Morning by Gustave Speth.

In the 1970’s, environmentalists in the U.S. were just beginning to push their efforts to get laws passed like the Clean Air Act and the Food and Drug Laws.  The public was mildly interested and industry was ignoring all of it.   Then Three Mile Island and a few other things all happened at about the same time and suddenly the public was very hot to support environmental protection laws.  The result was that a lot of laws about protecting the air and the water and such were all passed at once before the industry folks were really awake to what was happening.

Industry lost a lot of money because of all of these new laws and they vowed to never be asleep at the wheel again.

About 10 years later, in the 1980’s, the environmentalists began to realize that they could not protect the entire world by just passing good laws in the U.S.   They needed to expand their efforts and begin to fight for environmental protection laws that would be international in scope.  By the early 90’s the alarms were being sounded that we needed to do some things internationally or we, as a species, and as a planet, were going to have big problems.

But this time industry was not asleep.   They’d been burned once by not paying attention.   Now, every time an effort was mounted to increase environmental protection globally, industry looked at the proposed laws and if they could see that such a law was going to cost them big money, they mobilized to confuse people and to prevent the political will from developing to pass such a law.

This cat and mouse game has been going on for two decades now.   At first the scientists simply published the results of the scientific research in papers.  They trusted that people would be smart enough to see the writing on the wall.   But, industry confused people and confused the issues.  They published counter studies that seemed to show the opposite conclusions.

So scientists and environmental activists began to talk louder trying to get their messages and warnings out.  And industry fought back harder.  And the entire thing escalated up and up.

Most scientists now think that the entire “Global Climate Change is because of CO2″ issue has been definitively proven over and over beyond the shadow of any doubt.   But the public doesn’t think that.   They are still deeply confused by the mis-information industry has been putting out for just that purpose – to confuse them and to therefore prevent political will from developing that could result in some real laws getting passed.

What’s going on in Copenhagen now is a great example.   Many people think that awareness of our environmental problems has finally gotten to the point where the world’s leaders might actually come together and try to do something real to prevent a major environmental and climate disaster.   And then, two weeks before the conference, the other side unleashes a major campaign to throw doubt on the scientific conclusions and to mess the entire conference up.

And, I fear, they are doing a pretty good job.   Frankly, I think we’re toast and I’ve thought so for a long time.   Human nature is just too predictable and to easily manipulated.   Those who want to convince the public that the climate science is wrong actually have a pretty easy time of it because Joe Six-pack and folks like him would prefer to believe that nothing’s going on because it is way easier than thinking about the fact that they might have to change their consumerist lifestyles.

So yeah, some folks are sounding like shrill Chicken Littles.  Why?  Because it is a damn desperate situation and the world is likely to go into the toilet in spite of the very best efforts of the environmentalists.  And they are worried about it.

After reading over what I’ve written here, I realize that I’ve only partially answered what you actually asked.  You asked for some balance on the question of how CO2 is processed by the environment.

There are a lot of answers to that because, as you can imagine, the world’s climate and biosphere is a wickedly complex system.   But, here are a few of the high points:

- The level of CO2 in the atmosphere hasn’t been this high in 6 million years.

- The current swift rise in the level of CO2 in the atmosphere is faster than anything we can see in the climate records back for 6 million years.

- This rise corresponds with the rise of industrial civilization.   It begins in the climate record just about the time industrialization began when the English started building factories in the 1840’s or so and it increases in the climate record in pace with the increasing rise in industrial production.

- The denialists say that the rise in CO2 is a natural thing and has nothing to do with the CO2 humans are putting into the air.   I find that an amazing idea.   It’s like saying, “I just tromped down on the gas pedal and now the car is going really fast.”   And then having someone tell you that it’s just a coincidence and that the gas pedal has nothing to do with the acceleration.  Yeah, right.

- Nature does have some ability to absorb excess CO2.  The ocean absorbs a lot of it.  But, it cannot keep up with the rate we’re adding it to the air.   And, as the ocean absorbs it, the water becomes more acidic.  As it becomes more acidic, it makes it harder for ocean animals that have shells to make their shells because the acidification interferes with their chemistry.  At some point, this rise in dissolved CO2 is really going to mess with some huge food chains in the ocean.

- Plants and trees like CO2 and use and absorb it.  To a point.  Add a little more CO2 and a little more heat and they thrive.    But, add a bit more and they begin to weaken and wilt and their ability to absorb CO2 lessens.   This is true for the majority of plants and trees.   There are some exceptions but they are a minority and what really matters is what the majority of the world’s plants and trees are likely to do.  And what they are likely to do it not good.

- Big coal has been yammering on for years about CO2 sequestration.  But, in spite of many big public relations splashes, no one yet has made a full scale carbon sequestration plant that works.   In the mean time, China is building one or more coal fired dirty power production plants a week!   Much of the public thinks “clean coal” is either a done deal or very close.   It truth, it is miles and mile off and maybe we’ll never have it.

- The problem is bigger that just how much CO2 we’re putting into the air.  That’s bad and we can see it ramping up.  But, it is causing other problems much as one fire creates others as the embers fly.

- The arctic ice is melting and as it does, the white snow and ice disappear and the darker sea and land underneath become visible.  The white reflected heat back into space.   The darker stuff being exposed absorbs it.  So there’s more heating going on because of this and it, in turn, causes more ice and snow to melt.  It is a positive feed back cycle and it is beginning to get up onto legs of its own.

- Glaciers all over the world, with very few exceptions, are melting.  The winter snow falls that used to stay in the mountains and then melt in the summer are going away and that’s going to have a huge impact on human beings.  The summer water that millions need to grow crops and survive is going away, soon.  We’re talking most of the west coast of South America, the Southwestern U.S., Northern India and a huge swath across Central China from east to west.  We’ve never seen anything like the disruption and starvation that will result.

Dave, I’ve been reading this stuff for years and this is just a part of what I’ve read.  Scientists have no reason to make this stuff up.  But, folks who make big big bucks by keeping the world running as it is now have a huge motivation to not see and react to the coming global climate changes.  These folks have a lot of money and they think that even if there are big problems, they will have to money to hang out in nice villas up in the Alps and where ever while the rest of use starve and fight it out in the streets.

All they have to do is keep us confused so we won’t shut their party down.

Dennis

Posted in Biodiversity Loss, Capitalism & Corporations, Climate Change, CrashBlogging, Deforestation, Desertification, Extinctions, Food Shortages, Mental Irrationality, Methane, Ocean Acidification, Ocean Dead Zones, Politics - The Wrong Way, Pollution, The Perfect Storm, Water Shortages | 2 Comments »

An introduction to global warming impacts: Hell and High Water

Tuesday, April 21st, 2009

- This is a great place to start if you want to get the big overview of Global Climate Change and its consequences.   And recall that this, as big as it is, is only a part of the bigger picture that I’ve been calling The Perfect Storm.

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In this post, I will examine the key impacts we face by 2100 if we stay anywhere near our current emissions path. I will focus primarily on:

  • Staggeringly high temperature rise, especially over land — some 15°F over much of the United States
  • Sea level rise of 5 feet, rising some 6 to 12 inches (or more) each decade thereafter
  • Dust Bowls over the U.S. SW and many other heavily populated regions around the globe
  • Massive species loss on land and sea — 50% or more of all life
  • Unexpected impacts — the fearsome “unknown unknowns”
  • More severe hurricanes — especially in the Gulf

Equally tragic, as a 2009 NOAA-led study found, these impacts be “largely irreversible for 1000 years.”

More… :arrow: <== Please continue, this is well worth a good read!

Posted in Biodiversity Loss, Climate Change, CrashBlogging, Deforestation, Desertification, Extinctions, Food Shortages, Ocean Acidification, Ocean Dead Zones, Pandemics, Rising Ocean Levels, Social Breakdown, The Perfect Storm, Water Shortages, Weather deterioration | No Comments »

Ocean Dead Zones Likely To Expand: Increasing Carbon Dioxide And Decreasing Oxygen Make It Harder For Deep-sea Animals To Breath

Tuesday, April 21st, 2009

New calculations made by marine chemists from the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute (MBARI) suggest that low-oxygen “dead zones” in the ocean could expand significantly over the next century. These predictions are based on the fact that, as more and more carbon dioxide dissolves from the atmosphere into the ocean, marine animals will need more oxygen to survive.

Concentrations of carbon dioxide are increasing rapidly in the Earth’s atmosphere, primarily because of human activities. About one third of the carbon dioxide that humans produce by burning fossil fuels is being absorbed by the world’s oceans, gradually causing seawater to become more acidic.

However, such “ocean acidification” is not the only way that carbon dioxide can harm marine animals. In a “Perspective” published in the journal Science, Peter Brewer and Edward Peltzer combine published data on rising levels of carbon dioxide and declining levels of oxygen in the ocean in a set of new and thermodynamically rigorous calculations. They show that increases in carbon dioxide can make marine animals more susceptible to low concentrations of oxygen, and thus exacerbate the effects of low-oxygen “dead zones” in the ocean.

Brewer and Peltzer’s calculations also show that the partial pressure of dissolved carbon dioxide gas (pCO2) in low-oxygen zones will rise much higher than previously thought. This could have significant consequences for marine life in these zones.

More… :arrow:

Posted in Biodiversity Loss, Climate Change, CrashBlogging, Extinctions, Ocean Acidification, Ocean Dead Zones, The Perfect Storm | No Comments »

Climate scenarios ‘being realised’

Saturday, March 14th, 2009

The worst-case scenarios on climate change envisaged by the UN two years ago are already being realised, say scientists at an international meeting.

In a statement in Copenhagen on their six key messages to political leaders, they say there is a increasing risk of abrupt or irreversible climate shifts.

Even modest temperature rises will affect millions of people, particularly in the developing world, they warn.

But, they say, most tools needed to cut carbon dioxide emissions already exist.

More than 2,500 researchers and economists attended this meeting designed to update the world on the state of climate research ahead of key political negotiations set for December this year.

New data was presented in Copenhagen on sea level rise, which indicated that the best estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) made two years ago were woefully out of date.

Scientists heard that waters could rise by over a metre across the world with huge impacts for hundreds of millions of people.

There was also new information on how the Amazon rainforest would cope with rising temperatures. A UK Meteorological Office study concluded there would be a 75% loss of tree cover if the world warmed by three degrees for a century.

The scientists hope that their conclusions will remove any excuses from the political process.

Dr Katherine Richardson, who chaired the scientific steering committee that organised the conference, said the research presented added new certainty to the IPCC reports.

“We’ve seen lots more data, we can see where we are, no new surprises, we have a problem.”

More… :arrow:

Posted in Biodiversity Loss, Climate Change, CrashBlogging, Deforestation, Desertification, Extinctions, Methane, Ocean Acidification, Ocean Dead Zones, Rising Ocean Levels, Social Breakdown, The Perfect Storm, Water Shortages, Weather deterioration | No Comments »

‘Dead Zones’ Appear In Waters Worldwide

Friday, October 10th, 2008

New Study Estimates More Than 400

In the latest sign of trouble in the planet’s chemistry, the number of oxygen-starved “dead zones” in coastal waters around the world has roughly doubled every decade since the 1960s, killing fish, crabs and massive amounts of marine life at the base of the food chain, according to a study released yesterday.

“These zones are popping up all over,” said Robert Diaz, a professor at the Virginia Institute of Marine Science who led the study, published online by the journal Science.

Diaz and co-author Rutger Rosenberg of the University of Goteborg in Sweden counted more than 400 dead zones globally, ranging from expansive ones in the Baltic Sea and the Gulf of Mexico to small ones that episodically appear in river estuaries. Collectively, they cover about 95,000 square miles.

Low oxygen, known as hypoxia, is in significant measure a downstream effect of chemical fertilizers used in agriculture. Air pollution, including smog from automobiles, is another factor. The nitrogen from the fertilizer and the pollution feeds the growth of algae in coastal waters, particularly during summer.

More… :arrow:

Posted in CrashBlogging, Ocean Dead Zones, Pollution, The Perfect Storm | No Comments »

Letter to a young idealist

Sunday, July 20th, 2008

R.,

A few more thoughts along the same lines I talked about previously.

All of humanity’s history has been a series of incremental advances along multiple paths; business, social organization, military, agriculture, technological, etc. In all of this, the thought has primarily been to advance, empower and grow.

Now, for the first time in humanity’s history, we have filled the planet and have begun to hit various unyielding limits; water, food, oil, pollution, as well as limits having to do with how much impact we can have on the biosphere without causing huge shifts in the demographics of various species and even causing their extinctions.

It is clear, if humanity wants to continue to live indefinitely on this planet, that we are going to have to shift from a growth and advance strategy in all we do to one predicated on establishing a steady-state and sustainable balance with the biosphere around us.

We cannot use renewable resources faster than they can regenerate. We cannot occupy more of the planet’s surface than is consistent with allowing the rest of the planet’s biology to exist and flourish. These both imply that our population has to come down to some sustainable number and be held there. We have to come up with ways to govern ourselves that are consistent with establishing and maintaining these essential balances. Nation against nation, system against system is not compatible with long term survival. The ultimate goal and purpose of government in an enlightened world should be to secure all of our futures (we and all the rest of the planet’s biology) and maintain the balance.

We could, if we cut our population to sustainable levels and learned to live within a sustainable footprint on this planet, exist here for tens of thousands of years and maintain a decent quality of life for all those who are alive at any specific point in time. We do not have to give up comfort or technology – we just have to dial our impact on the planet back to sustainable levels and stay with in those levels.

Anything that the Gates Foundation or any other forward looking organization works on that does not include long term goals like these is likely in the big picture to just be a shuffling of our problems from one place to the other rather than a real indefinite-term planet-wide solution to how our species is going to solve the problem of learning to live here without fouling our nest for ourselves and all the other species that depend on this planet’s biosphere.

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Posted in Biodiversity Loss, Climate Change, CrashBlogging, Deforestation, Desertification, Extinctions, Financial melt-down, Food Shortages, Fundamentalism, Human Rights, Immigration Stress, Nuclear Waste, Ocean Dead Zones, Pandemics, Peak Oil, Personal, Philosophical, Pollution, Rising Ocean Levels, Social Breakdown, Terrorism, The Perfect Storm, Water Shortages, Women's Rights | No Comments »

The organisation of denial: Conservative think tanks and environmental scepticism

Saturday, June 21st, 2008

This worrisome research article has appeared in a peer reviewed journal. It’s not telling us anything that we didn’t already know, but it does catalogue the situation and help us steer clear of the hyperbole.

Environmental scepticism denies the seriousness of environmental problems, and self-professed ’sceptics’ claim to be unbiased analysts combating ‘junk science’. This study quantitatively analyses 141 English-language environmentally sceptical books published between 1972 and 2005. We find that over 92 per cent of these books, most published in the US since 1992, are linked to conservative think tanks (CTTs). Further, we analyse CTTs involved with environmental issues and find that 90 per cent of them espouse environmental scepticism. We conclude that scepticism is a tactic of an elite-driven counter-movement designed to combat environmentalism, and that the successful use of this tactic has contributed to the weakening of US commitment to environmental protection.

More… :arrow:

Posted in Biodiversity Loss, Capitalism & Corporations, Climate Change, CrashBlogging, Deforestation, Desertification, Extinctions, Financial melt-down, Food Shortages, Fundamentalism, Immigration Stress, Ocean Dead Zones, Peak Oil, Pollution, Rising Ocean Levels, Social Breakdown, Terrorism, The Perfect Storm, Water Shortages | No Comments »

The Way Back Machine…

Saturday, May 24th, 2008

- I think the first time I was seriously alarmed about the world’s situation was back in 1992 when I received a copy of the WORLD SCIENTISTS’ WARNING TO HUMANITY from The Union of Concerned Scientists. Prior to that, I’d paid attention here and there – but this warning woke me up. “If these people are alarmed“, I thought, “It’s time to take a look at this stuff.“

- I present that original warning, below.

- Consider it and think to yourself how many years have gone by since their warning was issued, how very little we’ve done to respond, and what sort of shape our world is in today because of our denial. It is sobering stuff.

- In the end, no one will be able to say, “We didn’t know.” Anyone who says so, has a very selective memory indeed given all the warnings that have been issued over the years.

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WORLD SCIENTISTS’ WARNING TO HUMANITY

Human beings and the natural world are on a collision course. Human activities inflict harsh and often irreversible damage on the environment and on critical resources. If not checked, many of our current practices put at serious risk the future that we wish for human society and the plant and animal kingdoms, and may so alter the living world that it will be unable to sustain life in the manner that we know. Fundamental changes are urgent if we are to avoid the collision our present course will bring about.

THE ENVIRONMENT IS SUFFERING CRITICAL STRESS

The Atmosphere

Stratospheric ozone depletion threatens us with enhanced ultra-violet radiation at the earth’s surface, which can be damaging or lethal to many life forms. Air pollution near ground level, and acid precipitation, are already causing widespread injury to humans, forests and crops.

Water Resources

Heedless exploitation of depletable ground water supplies endangers food production and other essential human systems. Heavy demands on the world’s surface waters have resulted in serious shortages in some 80 countries, containing 40% of the world’s population. Pollution of rivers, lakes and ground water further limits the supply.

Oceans

Destructive pressure on the oceans is severe, particularly in the coastal regions which produce most of the world’s food fish. The total marine catch is now at or above the estimated maximum sustainable yield. Some fisheries have already shown signs of collapse. Rivers carrying heavy burdens of eroded soil into the seas also carry industrial, municipal, agricultural, and livestock waste—some of it toxic

Soil

Loss of soil productivity, which is causing extensive land abandonment, is a widespread byproduct of current practices in agriculture and animal husbandry. Since 1945, 11% of the earth’s vegetated surface has been degraded—an area larger than India and China combined—and per capita food production in many parts of the world is decreasing.

Forests

Tropical rain forests, as well as tropical and temperate dry forests, are being destroyed rapidly. At present rates, some critical forest types will be gone in a few years and most of the tropical rain forest will be gone before the end of the next century. With them will go large numbers of plant and animal species.

Living Species

The irreversible loss of species, which by 2100 may reach one third of all species now living, is especially serious. We are losing the potential they hold for providing medicinal and other benefits, and the contribution that genetic diversity of life forms gives to the robustness of the world’s biological systems and to the astonishing beauty of the earth itself.

Much of this damage is irreversible on a scale of centuries or permanent. Other processes appear to pose additional threats. Increasing levels of gases in the atmosphere from human activities, including carbon dioxide released from fossil fuel burning and from deforestation, may alter climate on a global scale. Predictions of global warming are still uncertain—with projected effects ranging from tolerable to very severe—but the potential risks are very great.

Our massive tampering with the world’s interdependent web of life—coupled with the environmental damage inflicted by deforestation, species loss, and climate change—could trigger widespread adverse effects, including unpredictable collapses of critical biological systems whose interactions and dynamics we only imperfectly understand.

Uncertainty over the extent of these effects cannot excuse complacency or delay in facing the threat.

POPULATION

The earth is finite. Its ability to absorb wastes and destructive effluent is finite. Its ability to provide food and energy is finite. Its ability to provide for growing numbers of people is finite. And we are fast approaching many of the earth’s limits. Current economic practices which damage the environment, in both developed and underdeveloped nations, cannot be continued without the risk that vital global systems will be damaged beyond repair.

Pressures resulting from unrestrained population growth put demands on the natural world that can overwhelm any efforts to achieve a sustainable future. If we are to halt the destruction of our environment, we must accept limits to that growth. A World Bank estimate indicates that world population will not stabilize at less than 12.4 billion, while the United Nations concludes that the eventual total could reach 14 billion, a near tripling of today’s 5.4 billion. But, even at this moment, one person in five lives in absolute poverty without enough to eat, and one in ten suffers serious malnutrition.

No more than one or a few decades remain before the chance to avert the threats we now confront will be lost and the prospects for humanity immeasurably diminished.

WARNING

We the undersigned, senior members of the world’s scientific community, hereby warn all humanity of what lies ahead. A great change in our stewardship of the earth and the life on it, is required, if vast human misery is to be avoided and our global home on this planet is not to be irretrievably mutilated.

WHAT WE MUST DO

Five inextricably linked areas must be addressed simultaneously:

1. We must bring environmentally damaging activities under control to restore and protect the integrity of the earth’s systems we depend on.

We must, for example, move away from fossil fuels to more benign, inexhaustible energy sources to cut greenhouse gas emissions and the pollution of our air and water. Priority must be given to the development of energy sources matched to third world needs—small scale and relatively easy to implement.

We must halt deforestation, injury to and loss of agricultural land, and the loss of terrestrial and marine plant and animal species.

2. We must manage resources crucial to human welfare more effectively.

We must give high priority to efficient use of energy, water, and other materials, including expansion of conservation and recycling.

3. We must stabilize population. This will be possible only if all nations recognize that it requires improved social and economic conditions, and the adoption of effective, voluntary family planning.

4. We must reduce and eventually eliminate poverty.

5. We must ensure sexual equality, and guarantee women control over their own reproductive decisions.

The developed nations are the largest polluters in the world today. They must greatly reduce their overconsumption, if we are to reduce pressures on resources and the global environment. The developed nations have the obligation to provide aid and support to developing nations, because only the developed nations have the financial resources and the technical skills for these tasks.

Acting on this recognition is not altruism, but enlightened self-interest: whether industrialized or not, we all have but one lifeboat. No nation can escape from injury when global biological systems are damaged. No nation can escape from conflicts over increasingly scarce resources. In addition, environmental and economic instabilities will cause mass migrations with incalculable consequences for developed and undeveloped nations alike.

Developing nations must realize that environmental damage is one of the gravest threats they face, and that attempts to blunt it will be overwhelmed if their populations go unchecked. The greatest peril is to become trapped in spirals of environmental decline, poverty, and unrest, leading to social, economic and environmental collapse.

Success in this global endeavor will require a great reduction in violence and war. Resources now devoted to the preparation and conduct of war—amounting to over $1 trillion annually—will be badly needed in the new tasks and should be diverted to the new challenges.

A new ethic is required—a new attitude towards discharging our responsibility for caring for ourselves and for the earth. We must recognize the earth’s limited capacity to provide for us. We must recognize its fragility. We must no longer allow it to be ravaged. This ethic must motivate a great movement, convince reluctant leaders and reluctant governments and reluctant peoples themselves to effect the needed changes.

The scientists issuing this warning hope that our message will reach and affect people everywhere.

We need the help of many.

We require the help of the world community of scientists—natural, social, economic, political;

We require the help of the world’s business and industrial leaders;

We require the help of the worlds religious leaders; and

We require the help of the world’s peoples.

We call on all to join us in this task.

PROMINENT INDIVIDUALS
AMONG MORE THAN 1,500 SIGNATORIES

_Anatole Abragam, Physicist; Fmr. Member, Pontifical Academy of Sciences; France
_Carlos Aguirre President, Academy of Sciences, Bolivia
_Walter Alvarez Geologist, National Academy of Sciences, USA
_Viqar Uddin Ammad, Chemist, Pakistani & Third World Academies, Pakistan
_Claude Allegre, Geophysicist, Crafoord Prize, France
_Michael Alpers Epidemiologist, Inst. of Med. Research, Papua New Guinea
_Anne Anastasi, Psychologist, National Medal of Science, USA
_Philip Anderson, Nobel laureate, Physics; USA
_Christian Anfinsen, Nobel laureate, Chemistry; USA
_How Ghee Ang, Chemist, Third World Academy, Singapore
_Werner Arber, Nobel laureate, Medicine; Switzerland
_Mary Ellen Avery, Pediatrician, National Medal of Science, USA
_Julius Axelrod, Nobel laureate, Medicine; USA
_Michael Atiyah, Mathematician; President, Royal Society; Great Britain
_Howard Bachrach, Biochemist, National Medal of Science, USA
_John Backus, Computer Scientist, National Medal of Science, USA
_Achmad Baiquni, Physicist, Indonesian & Third World Academies, Indonesia
_David Baltimore, Nobel laureate, Medicine; USA
_H. A. Barker, Biochemist, National Medal of Science, USA
_Francisco J. Barrantes, Biophysicist, Third World Academy, Argentina
_David Bates, Physicist, Royal Irish Academy, Ireland
_Alan Battersby, Chemist, Wolf Prize in Chemistry, Great Britain
_Baruj Benacerraf, Nobel laureate, Medicine; USA
_Georg Bednorz, Nobel laureate, Physics; Switzerland
_Germot Bergold, Inst. Venezolano de Investigaciones Cientificas, Venezuela
_Sune Bergstrom, Nobel laureate, Medicine; Sweden
_Daniel Bes, Physicist, Argentinean & Third World Academies, Argentina
_Hans Bethe, Nobel laureate, Physics; USA
_Arthur Birch Chemist, Australian Academy of Science, Australia
_Michael Bishop, Nobel laureate, Medicine; USA
_Konrad Bloch, Nobel laureate, Medicine; USA
_Nicholaas Bloembergen, Nobel laureate, Physics; USA
_David Mervyn Blow, Wolf Prize in Chemistry, Great Britain
_Baruch Blumberg, Nobel laureate, Medicine; USA
_Bert Bolin, Meteorologist, Tyler Prize, Sweden
_Norman Borlaug, Agricultural Scientist, Nobel laureate, Peace; USA & Mexico
_Frederick Bormann, Forest Ecologist; Past President, Ecological Soc. of Amer.; USA
_Raoul Bott, Mathematician, National Medal of Science, USA
_Ronald Breslow, Chemist, National Medal of Science, USA
_Ricardo Bressani, Inst. of Nutrition, Guatemalan & Third World Academies, Guatemala
_Hermann Bruck, Astronomer, Pontifical Academy of Sciences, Great Britain
_Gerardo Budowski, Natural Resources, Univ. Para La Paz, Costa Rica
_E. Margaret Burbidge, Astronomer, National Medal of Science, USA
_Robert Burris, Biochemist, Wolf Prize in Agriculture, USA
_Glenn Burton, Geneticist, National Medal of Science, USA
_Adolph Butenandt, Nobel laureate, Chemistry; Fmr. President, Max Planck Inst.; Germany
_Sergio Cabrera, Biologist, Univ. de Chile, Chile
_Paulo C. Campos, Medical scientist, Philippine & Third World Academies, Philippines
_Ennio Candotti, Physicist; President, Brazilian Soc. Adv. of Science; Brazil
_Henri Cartan, Wolf Prize in Mathematics, France
_Carlos Chagas, Biologist; Univ. de Rio de Janeiro; Fmr. President, Pontifical Academy of Sciences; Brazil
_Sivaramakrishna Chandrasekhar, Center for Liquid Crystal Research, India
_Georges Charpak, Nobel laureate, Physics; France
_Joseph Chatt, Wolf Prize in Chemistry, Great Britain
_Shiing-Shen Chern, Wolf Prize in Mathematics, China & USA
_Christopher Chetsanga, Biochemist, Affican & Third World Academies, Zimbabwe
_Morris Cohen, Engineering, National Medal of Science, USA
_Stanley Cohen, Nobel laureate, Medicine; USA
_Stanley N. Cohen, Geneticist, Wolf Prize in Medicine, USA
_Mildred Cohn, Biochemist, National Medal of Science, USA
_E. J. Corey, Nobel laureate, Chemistry, USA
_John Cornforth, Nobel laureate, Chemistry; Great Britain
_Hector Croxatto, Physiologist, Pontifical & Third World Academies, Chile
_Paul Crutzen, Chemist, Tyler Prize, Germany
_Partha Dasgupta, Economist, Royal Society, Great Britain
_Jean Dausset, Nobel laureate, Medicine; France
_Ogulande Robert Davidson, Univ. Res. & Dev. Serv., African Acad., Sierra Leone
_Margaret Davis, Ecologist, National Academy of Sciences, USA
_Luis D’Croz, Limnologist, Univ. de Panama, Panama
_Gerard Debreu, Nobel laureate, Economics; USA
_Pierre-Gilles de Gennes, Nobel laureate, Physics; France
_Johann Deisenhofer, Nobel laureate, Chemistry; Germany & USA
_Frederica de Laguna, Anthropologist, National Academy of Sciences, USA
_Paul-Yves Denis, Geographer, Academy of Sciences, Canada
_Pierre Deligne, Mathematician, Crafoord Prize, France
_Frank Dixon, Pathologist, Lasker Award, USA
_Johanna Dobereiner, Biologist, First Sec., Brazilian Academy of Sci.; Pontifical & Third World Academies, Brazil
_Joseph Doob, Mathematician, National Medal of Science, USA
_Renato Dulbecco, Nobel laureate, Medicine; USA
_Heneri Dzinotyiweyi, Mathematician, African & Third World Academies, Zimbabwe
_Manfred Eigen, Nobel laureate, Chemistry; Germany
_Samuel Eilenberg, Wolf Prize in Mathematics, USA
_Mahdi Elmandjra, Economist; Vice President, African Academy of Sciences; Morocco
_Paul Ehrlich, Biologist, Crafoord Prize, USA
_Thomas Eisner, Biologist, Tyler Prize, USA
_Mohammed T. El-Ashry, Environmental scientist, Third World Academy, Egypt & USA
_Gertrude Elion, Nobel laureate, Medicine; USA
_Aina Elvius, Astronomer, Royal Academy of Sciences, Sweden
_K. O. Emery, Oceanographer, National Academy of Sciences, USA
_Paul Erdos, Wolf Prize in Mathematics, Hungary
_Richard Ernst, Nobel laureate, Chemistry; Switzerland
_Vittorio Ersparmer, Pharmacologist, Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei, Italy
_Sandra Faber, Astronomer, National Academy of Sciences, USA
_Nina Federoff, Embryologist, National Academy of Sciences, USA
_Herman Feshbach, Physicist, National Medal of Science, USA
_Inga Fischer-Hjalmars, Biologist, Royal Academy of Sciences, Sweden
_Michael Ellis Fisher, Physicist, Wolf Prize in Physics, Great Britain & USA
_Val Fitch, Nobel laureate, Physics; USA
_Daflinn Follesdal, President, Norwegian Academy of Science; Norway
_William Fowler, Nobel laureate, Physics; USA
_Otto Frankel, Geneticist, Australian Academy of Sciences, Australia
_Herbert Friedman, Wolf Prize in Physics, USA
_Jerome Friedman, Nobel laureate, Physics; USA
_Konstantin V. Frolov Engineer; Vice President, Russian Academy of Sciences; Russia
_Kenichi Fukui, Nobel laureate, Chemistry; Japan
_Madhav Gadgil, Ecologist, National Science Academy, India
_Mary Gaillard, Physicist, National Academy of Sciences. USA
_Carleton Gajdusek, Nobel laureate, Medicine; USA
_Robert Gallo, Research Scientist, Lasker Award, USA
_Rodrigo Gamez ,Instituto Nacional de Biodiversidad, Costa Rica
_Antonio Garcia-Bellido, Biologist, Univ. Auto. Madrid, Royal Society, Spain
_Leopoldo Garcia-Collin, Physicist, Latin American & Third World Academies, Mexico
_Percy Garnham, Royal Society & Pontifical Academy, Great Britain
_Richard Garwin, Physicist, National Academy of Sciences, USA
_Murray Gell-Mann, Nobel laureate, Physics; USA
_Georgii Georgiev, Biologist, Lenin Prize, Russia
_Humam Bishara Ghassib, Physicist, Third World Academy, Jordan
_Ricardo Giacconi, Astronomer, Wolf Prize in Physics, USA
_Eleanor J. Gibson, Psychologist, National Medal of Science, USA
_Marvin Goldberger, Physicist; Fmr. President, Calif. Inst. of Tech., USA
_Maurice Goldhaber, Wolf Prize in Physics, USA
_Donald Glaser, Nobel laureate, Physics; USA
_Sheldon Glashow, Nobel laureate, Physics; USA
_James Gowans, Wolf Prize in Medicine, France
_Roger Green, Anthropologist, Royal Society, New Zealand
_Peter Greenwood, Ichthyologist, Royal Society, Great Britain
_Edward Goldberg, Chemist, Tyler Prize, USA
_Coluthur Gopolan, Nutrition Foundation of India, Indian & Third World Academies, India
_Stephen Jay Gould, Paleontologist, Author, Harvard Univ., USA
_Roger Guillemin, Nobel laureate, Medicine; USA
_Herbert Gutowsky, Wolf Prize in Chemistry, USA
_Erwin Hahn, Wolf Prize in Physics, USA
_Gonzalo Halffter, Ecologist, Inst. Pol. Nac. ,Mexico
_Kerstin Hall, Endocrinologist, Royal Academy of Sciences, Sweden
_Mohammed Ahmed Hamdan, Mathematician, Third World, Academy, Jordan
_Adnan Hamoui, Mathematician, Third World, Academy, Kuwait
_A. M. Harun-ar Rashid, Physicist; Sec., Bangladesh, Academy of Sci., Bangladesh
_Mohammed H. A. Hassan, Physicist; Exec. Sec., Third World Academy of Sciences; Sudan & Italy
_Ahmed Hassanli, Chemist, African Academy of Sciences, Tanzania & Kenya
_Herbert Hauptman, Nobel laureate, Chemistry; USA
_Stephen Hawking, Mathematician, Wolf Prize in Physics, Great Britain
_Elizabeth Hay, Biologist, National Academy of Sciences, USA
_Dudley Herschbach, Nobel laureate, Chemistry, USA
_Gerhard Herzberg, Nobel laureate, Chemistry; Canada
_Antony Hewish, Nobel laureate, Physics; Great Britain
_George Hitchings, Nobel laureate, Medicine; USA
_Dorothy Crowfoot Hodgkin, Nobel laureate, Chemistry; Great Britain
_Roald Hoffman, Nobel laureate, Chemistry; USA
_Robert Holley, Nobel laureate, Medicine; USA
_Nick Holonyak, Electrical Engineer, National Medal of Science, USA
_Lars Hormander, Wolf Prize in Mathematics, Sweden
_Dorothy Horstmann, Epidemiologist, National Academy of Sciences, USA
_John Houghton, Meteorologist; Chairman, Science Working Group, IPCC; Great Britain
_Sarah Hrdy, Anthropologist, National Academy of Sciences, USA
_Kenneth Hsu, Geologist, Third World Academy, China & Switzerland
_Kun Huang, Physicist, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China
_Hiroshi Inose, Electrical Engineer; Vice President, Engineering Academy; Japan
_Turner T. Isoun, Pathologist, African Academy of Sciences, Nigeria
_Francois Jacob, Nobel laureate, Medicine; France
_Carl-Olof Jacobson Zoologist; Sec-Gen., Royal Academy of Sciences; Sweden
_Dorothea Jameson, Psychologist, National Academy of Sciences, USA
_Daniel Janzen, Biologist, Crafoord Prize, USA
_Cecilia Jarlskog, Physicist, Royal Academy of Sciences, Sweden
_Louise Johnson, Biophysicist, Royal Society, Great Britain
_Harold Johnston, Chemist, Tyler Prize, USA
_Victor A. Kabanov, Chemist, Lenin Prize in Science, Russia
_Jerome Karle, Nobel laureate, Physics; USA
_Robert Kates, Geographer, National Medal of Science, USA
_Frederick I. B. Kayanja, Vice-Chnclr., Mbarara Univ., Third World Academy, Uganda
_Joseph Keller, Mathematician, National Medal of Science, USA
_Henry Kendall, Nobel laureate, Physics; Chairman, Union of Concerned Scientists; USA
_John Kendrew, Nobel laureate, Chemistry; Great Britain
_Elisabeth Kessler, Royal Academy of Sciences, Sweden
_Maung-U Khin, Pediatrician, Third World Academy, Myamnar & USA
_Gurdev Khush, Agronomist, International Rice Institute, Indian Natl. Sci. Academy, India & Philippines
_Susan Kieffer, Geologist, National Academy of Sciences, USA
_Klaus von Klitzing, Nobel laureate, Physics; Germany
_Aaron Klug, Nobel laureate, Chemistry, Great Britain
_E. F. Knipling, Agricultural Researcher, National Medal of Science, USA
_Walter Kohn, Physicist, National Medal of Science, USA
_Janos Kornai, Economist, Hungarian Academy of Science, Hungary
_Aderemi Kuku, Mathematician, African & Third World Acads., Nigeria
_Ikuo Kushiro, Geologist, Japan Academy, Japan
_Devendra Lal, Geophysicist, National Science Academy, India
_Gerardo Lamas-Muller, Biologist, Museo de Historia Natural, Peru
_Torvard Laurent, Physiological chemist; President, Royal Academy of Sciences; Sweden
_Leon Lederman, Nobel laureate, Physics; Chr., Amer. Assn. Adv. Sci.; USA
_Sang Soo Lee, Physicist, Korean & Third World Academies, Rep. of Korea
_Yuan T. Lee, Nobel laureate, Chemistry; USA
_Susan Leeman Pharmacologist, National Academy of Sciences, USA
_Jean Marie Lehn, Nobel laureate, Chemistry; France
_Wassily Leontief, Nobel laureate, Economics; USA
_Luna Leopold, Geologist, National Medal of Science, USA
_Louis Leprince-Ringuet, Physicist, French & Pontifical Academies, France
_Vladilen Letokhov, Physicist, Lenin Prize in Science, Russia
_Rita Levi-Montalcini, Nobel laureate, Medicine; USA & Italy
_Li Chang-lin, Environmental Sciences, Fudan University, China
_Shan Tao Liao, Mathematician, Chinese & Third World Academies, China
_William Lipscomb, Nobel laureate, Physics; USA
_Jane Lubchenco, Zoologist; President-Elect, Ecological Soc. of Amer.; USA
_Christopher Magazda, Limnologist, African Academy of Sciences, Zimbabwe
_Lydia Phindile Makhubu, Chemist, Third World & African Academies, Swaziland
_Khursheed Ahmad Malik, Microbiologist, Pakistan & Third World Academies, Pakistan & Germany
_Lynn Margulis, Biologist, National Academy of Sciences, USA
_Paul Marks, Oncologist, National Medal of Science, USA
_George Martine, Inst. for Study of Society, Population, & Nature; Brazil
_Frederico Mayor, Biochemist; Dir. Gen., UNESCO, Spain & France
_Ernst Mayr, Zoologist, National Medal of Science, USA
_Maclyn McCarty, Wolf Prize in Medicine, USA
_James McConnell, Physicist, Pontifical Academy of Sciences, Ireland
_Digby McLaren, Past President, Royal Society of Canada; Canada
_James Meade, Nobel laureate, Economics; Great Britain
_Jerrold Meinwald, Chemistry, Tyler Prize, USA
_M. G. K Menon, Physicist; President, International Council of Scientific Unions; India
_Gennady Mesiatz, Physicist; Vice President, Russian Academy of Sciences; Russia
_Jan Michalski, Biologist, Polish Academy of Science, Poland
_Hartmut Michel, Nobel laureate, Chemistry; Germany
_Brenda Milner, Neurologist, Academy of Sciences, Canada
_Cesar Milstein, Nobel laureate, Medicine; Argentina & Great Britain
_Franco Modigliani, Nobel laureate, Economics; USA
_Andrei Monin, Oceanologist, State Prize, Russia
_Marcos Moshinsky, Physicist, Pontifical Academy of Sciences, Mexico
_Nevill Mott, Nobel laureate, Physics; Great Britain
_Teruaki Mukaiyama, Chemist, Japan Academy, Japan
_Walter Munk, Geophysicist, National Medal of Science, USA
_Anne Murray, Ethnographer, Royal Academy of Sciences, Sweden
_Joseph Murray, Nobel laureate, Medicine; USA
_Noreen Murray, Biologist, Royal Society, Great Britain
_Lawrence Mysak, Meteorologist; Vice President, Academy of Science, Royal Society of Canada; Canada
_Jayant Vishnu Narlikar, Astrophysicist, Indian & Third World Academies, India
_Anwar Nasim, Biologist, Third World Academy, Saudi Arabia
_Kim Nasmyth, Biologist, Royal Society, Great Britain & Austria
_James Neel, Geneticist, National Medal of Science, USA
_Louis Neel, Nobel laureate, Physics; France
_Yuval Ne’eman, Physicist, Natl. Acad. of Sci. & Humanities, Israel
_Oleg M. Nefedov, Chemist; Vice President, Russian Academy of Sciences; Russia
_Erwin Neher, Nobel laureate, Medicine; Germany
_Marshall Nirenberg, Biochemist; Nobel laureate, Medicine; USA
_Yasutomi Nishizuka, Biochemist, Lasker Award, Japan
_John S. Nkoma, Physicist, Third World Academy, Botswana
_Paul Nchoji Nkvvi, Anthropologist, African Academy, Cameroon
_Howard Odum, Ecologist, Crafoord Prize, USA
_Bede Nwoye Okigbo, Agricultural Scientist; Dir., U.N. Unv. Pgm. Natrl. Res. in Afr.; Nigeria & Kenya
_Ayub Khan Ommaya, Neurobiologist, Third World Academy, Pakistan & USA
_Cyril Agodi Onwumechili, Physicist, Fmr. Pres., Nigerian Acad. of Sciences, Nigeria & Great Britain
_Mary Jane Osborn, Microbiologist, National Academy of Scientists, USA
_Yuri Ossipyan, Physicist; Vice President, Russian Academy of Sciences; Russia
_Autzr Singh Paintal, Physiologist, Fmr. President, Indian National Science Academy, India
_George Pake, Physicist, National Medal of Science, USA
_George Palade, Nobel laureate, Physics; USA
_Mary Lou Pardue, Biologist, National Academy of Sciences, USA
_Linus Pauling, Nobel laureate, Chemistry & Peace, USA
_Barbara Pearse, Molecular Biologist, Royal Society, Great Britain
_Muhammed Abed Peerally, Biologist, Third World Academy, Mauritius
_Manuel Peimbert, Astronomer, Univ. Nac. Aut. de Mexico, Mexico
_Roger Penrose, Mathematician, Wolf Prize in Physics, Great Britain
_John Philip, Agricultural Science, Australian Academy of Science, Australia
_Lilian Pickford, Physiologist, Royal Society, Great Britain
_John R. Pierce, Electrical Engineer, National Medal of Science, USA
_John Polanyi, Nobel laureate, Chemistry; Canada
_George Porter, Nobel laureate, Chemistry; Great Britain
_Ilya Prigogine, Nobel laureate, Chemistry; Belgium
_Giampietro Puppi, Physicist, Pontifical Academy of Sciences, Italy
_Edward Purcell, Nobel laureate, Physics; USA
_Atta ur-Rahman, Chemist, Pakistani & Third World Academies, Pakistan
_G. N. Ramachandran, Mathematician, Inst. of Science, India
_Tiruppattur Ramakrishnan, Physicist, Indian & Third World Academies, India
_Chintamani Rao, Inst. of Science, Indian and Pontifical Academies, India
_Eduardo Rapoport, Ecologist, Third World Academy, Argentina
_Marianne Rasmuson, Geneticist, Royal Academy of Sciences, Sweden
_Peter Raven, Director, Missouri Botanical Garden; National Academy of Sciences, USA
_Martin Rees, Astronomer, Royal Society & Pontifical Academy, Great Britain
_Gerardo Reichel-Dolmatoff, Anthropologist, Columbian & Third World Academies, Columbia
_Tadeus Reichstein, Nobel laureate, Medicine; Switzerland
_Frederick Reines, Physicist, National Medal of Science, USA
_Alexander Rich, Biologist, National & Pontifical Academies, USA
_Burton Richter, Nobel laureate, Physics; USA
_Ralph Riley, Wolf Prize in Agriculture, Great Britain
_Claude Rimington, Inst. for Cancer Research, Norwegian Academy of Science, Norway
_Gustavo Rivas Mijares, Engineer; Fmr. President, Academy of Sciences, Venezuela
_Frederick Robbins, Nobel laureate, Medicine; USA
_Wendell Roelofs, Entomologist, National Medal of Science, USA
_Betty Roots, Zoologist, Academy of Sciences, Canada
_Miriam Rothschild, Biologist, Royal Society, Great Britain
_Sherwood Rowland, Chemist; President, American Association for the Advancement of Science; USA
_Janet Rowley, Physician, National Academy of Sciences, USA
_Carlo Rubbia, Nobel laureate, Physics, Italy & Switzerland
_Vera Rubin, Physicist, National Academy of Sciences, USA
_Yuri Rudenko, Energy Research Inst., State Prize laureate, Russia
_Elizabeth Russell, Jackson Laboratory, National Academy of Sciences, USA
_Albert Sabin, Virologist, National Medal of Science, USA
_Carl Sagan, Astrophysicist & Author, USA
_Roald Sagdeev, Physicist, Russian & Pontifical Academies, Russia & USA
_Ruth Sager, Geneticist, National Academy of Sciences, USA
_Farrokh Saidi, Surgeon, Third World Academy, Iran
_Abdus Salam, Nobel laureate, Physics; President, Third World Academy of Sciences, Pakistan & Italy
_Frederick Sanger, Nobel laureate, Chemistry; Great Britain
_Jose Sarukhan, Biologist, Third World Academy, Mexico
_Berta Scharrer,Neuroscientist, National Medal of Science, USA
_Richard Schultes, Botanist, Tyler Prize, USA
_Melvin Schwartz, Nobel laureate, Physics; USA
_Julian Schwinger, Nobel laureate, Physics; USA
_Glenn Seaborg, Nobel laureate, Physics; USA
_Michael Sela, Weizmann Inst., Pontifical Academy of Science, Israel
_Arne Semb-Johansson, Entomologist, Norwegian Academy of Science, Norway
_Salimuzzaman Siddiqui, Chemist, Pontifical & Third World Academies, Pakistan
_Kai Siegbahn, Nobel laureate, Physics; Sweden
_Thomas Silou, Biochemist, African Academy of Sciences, Congo
_Herbert Simon, Nobel laureate, Economics; USA
_Alexej Sitenko, Physicist, Ukrainian Academy of Sciences, Ukraine
_Jens Skou, Biophysicist, Royal Academy of Sciences, Denmark
_Charles Slack, Agricultural Science, Royal Society, New Zealand
_George Snell, Nobel laureate, Medicine; USA
_Roger Sperry, Nobel laureate, Medicine; USA
_Alexander Spirin, Biologistn Lenin Prize, Russia
_Earl Stadtman, Biochemist, National Medal of Science, USA
_Thressa Stadtman, Biochemist, National Academy of Sciences, USA
_Ledyard Stebbins, Geneticist, National Medal of Science, USA
_Jack Steinberger, Nobel laureate, Physics; USA & Switzerland
_Janos Szentgothai, Fmr. President, Hungarian Academy of Sciences; Hungary
_Tan Jia-zhen, Geneticist, Shanghai Univ., China
_Andrezej Tarkowski, Embryologist, Polish [text missing]
_Valentine Telegdi, Wolf Prize in Physics, Switzerland
_Kirthi Tennakone, Physicist, Third World Academy, Sri Lanka
_Walter Thirring, Physicist, Austrian & Pontifical Academies, Austria
_Donnall Thomas, Nobel laureate, Medicine; USA
_Jan Tinbergen, Nobel laureate, Economics; Netherlands
_Samuel C. C. Ting, Nobel laureate, Physics; USA
_James Tobin, Nobel laureate, Economics; USA
_Alexander Todd, Nobel laureate, Chemistry; Great Britain
_Susumu Tonegawa, Nobel laureate, Medicine; Japan & USA
_Cheng Kui Tseng, Oceanologist, Chinese & Third World Academies, China
_Hans Tuppy, Biochemist, Austrian & Pontifical Academies, Austria
_James Van Allen, Physicist, Crafoord Prize, USA
_Simon van der Meer, Nobel laureate, Physics; Netherlands & Switzerland
_John Vane, Nobel laureate, Medicine; Great Britain
_Harold Varmus, Nobel laureate, Medicine; USA
_Martha Vaughan, Biochemist, National Academy of Sciences, USA
_George Wald, Nobel laureate, Medicine; USA
_Henrik Wallgren, Zoologist, Society of Science & Letters, Finland
_E. T. S. Walton, Nobel laureate, Physics, Ireland
_Prawase Wasi, Hematologist, Third World Academy, Thailand
_Gerald Wasserburg, Geophysicist, Crafoord Prize, USA
_James Watson, Nobel laureate, Medicine; USA
_Victor Weisskopf, Wolf Prize in Physics, USA
_Thomas Weller, Nobel laureate, Medicine; USA
_Diter von Wettstein, Physiologist, Royal Academy of Sciences, Denmark
_Fred Whipple, Astronomer, National Academy of Sciences, USA
_Gilbert White, Geographer, Tyler Prize, USA
_Torsten Wiesel, Nobel laureate, Medicine; USA
_Jerome Wiesner, Physicist, Fmr. President, Mass. Inst. of Tech., USA
_Maurice Wilkins, Nobel laureate, Medicine; Great Britain
_Geoffrey Wilkinson, Nobel laureate, Chemistry; Great Britain
_Richard Willems, Geneticist, Estonian Biocentre, Estonia
_Edward O. Wilson, Biologist, Crafoord Prize, USA
_Lawrence A. Wilson, Agricultural Science, Third World Academy, Trinidad
_Evelyn Witkin, Biologist, National Academy of Sciences, USA
_Yang Fujia, Physicist, Chinese & Third World Academies, China
_Alexander L. Yanshin, Geologist, Karpinsky Gold Medal, Russia
_Yongyuth Yuthavong, Biochemist; Director, National Sci. & Tech. Devl. Agency, Thailand
_Zhao Zhong-xian, Physicist, Chinese & Third World Academies, China
_Zhou Guang-zhao, Physicist; President, Chinese Academy of Sciences;, China
_Solly ZuckerInan, Zoologist, Royal Society, Great Britain

Over 1,500 members of national, regional, and international science academies have signed the Warning. Sixtynine nations from all parts of Earth are represented, including each of the twelve most populous nations and the nineteen largest economic powers. The full list includes a majority of the Nobel laureates in the sciences. Awards and institutional affiliations are listed for the purpose of identification only. The Nobel Prize in medicine is for physiology or medicine.

A WORLD SCIENTISTS’ WARNING BRIEFING BOOK is available from the Union of Concerned Scientists. It provides the citations to support their WARNING.

Union of Concerned Scientists, 96 Church Street, Cambridge, Mass 02238-9105, USA Phone: 617-547-5552; FAX: 617-864-9405
http://www.ucsusa.org/ ucs@igc.apc.org

[Warning issued on November 18, 1992, transcribed by Jay Hanson—apologies for any typos]

Posted in Biodiversity Loss, Climate Change, CrashBlogging, Deforestation, Desertification, Extinctions, Food Shortages, Nuclear Waste, Ocean Dead Zones, Pandemics, Pollution, Rising Ocean Levels, Social Breakdown, Terrorism, The Perfect Storm, Water Shortages | No Comments »

Ocean Dead Zones Growing; May Be Linked to Warming

Friday, May 9th, 2008

The world’s hypoxic zones—swaths of ocean too oxygen-deprived to support fish and other marine organisms—are rapidly expanding as sea temperatures rise, a new study suggests.

Researchers have tracked a decline in dissolved oxygen levels since 1960 in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, which has extended the size of these undersea deserts and intensified their effects.

The oxygen level in these zones “is below the critical oxygen level for fish and other large marine animals,” said team leader Lothar Stramma, of the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at the University of Kiel in Germany.

The team constructed a time line of oxygen concentrations at depths of between 985 and 2,295 feet (300 and 700 meters) using oxygen data records going back 50 years. The results fit predictions of the effects of global warming.

The oxygen declines were found to be most marked in tropical Atlantic regions, the study team reports in the latest issue of the journal Science.

In the east Atlantic, for example, the low-oxygen layer was found to have increased in height by 85 percent, growing from 1,215 to 2,265 feet (370 to 690 meters).

“The vertical area covered by some of these layers has almost doubled in the Atlantic,” Stramma said.

Conditions have also become more suffocating for life within these hypoxic waters, he said.

“In general this low-oxygen zone had widened, and in some areas the oxygen value also got lower.”

More… :arrow:

Posted in Biodiversity Loss, Climate Change, CrashBlogging, Ocean Dead Zones, The Perfect Storm | No Comments »

Fertilizer use and ocean dead zones

Friday, May 9th, 2008

Nice chart in the New York Times showing the use of fertilizer around the world and where the world’s oceanic dead zones are located.

Go here to see the chart: :arrow:

- This article is from the NY Times and they insist that folks have an ID and a PW in order to read their stuff. You can get these for free just by signing up. However, a friend of mine suggests the website bugmenot.com :arrow: as an alternative to having to do these annoying sign ups. Check it out. Thx Bruce S. for the tip.

Posted in Biodiversity Loss, CrashBlogging, Ocean Dead Zones, Pollution, The Perfect Storm | No Comments »

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