Archive for the ‘Peak Oil’ Category

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Government Report Forecasts 43% Rise in Global CO2 Emissions by 2035

Sunday, July 18th, 2010

The U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) released a report summary earlier this week projecting a 43 percent rise in global carbon emission by 2035 under current policies and expected economic and population growth, particularly from developing countries.

The EIA summary says that emissions will rise from 29.7 billion metric tons in 2007 to 42.2 billion tons in 2035, with world energy consumption rising 49 percent.

Most of that increasing energy demand will come from developing countries, rising 84 percent and doubling their greenhouse gas emissions by 2035. Energy consumption in the developed world will increase by 14 percent as emissions remain close to current levels, according to the report.

In 2007, industrialized nations contributed about half the world’s carbon emissions. By 2035, that share will drop to about one third, as developing world economies quickly expand.

- More… :arrow:

Posted in Climate Change, CrashBlogging, Peak Oil, Rising Ocean Levels, Weather deterioration | No Comments »

Rising costs hit EU’s nuclear dream

Tuesday, June 8th, 2010

- A sad business this.   Fusion is one of the few possibilities out that that is almost all benefit and little downside.   Imagine a world with nearly unlimited power.

- But, the problem with short-term and long-term thinking, in which humans are so poorly balanced, has led us away from this goal again and again.   And, now that we’re reaching the limits of the current petroleum-based energy systems, we’re going to find out the hard way what this lack of long-term focus is going to cost us.

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The cost of an ambitious international nuclear fusion project has trebled in three years, scientists say, prompting fears the work may be scrapped.

At the same time, financial crises have beset all the nations involved in the project.

As a result, construction of the International Thermonuclear Experiment Reactor (Iter) at Cadarache in France has been pushed back from 2015 to 2019, and more delays are likely.

Some scientists say there is a risk that the entire project could be cancelled. The original price tag was €6 billion. ($11 billion). The latest estimate is €18 billion.

Because it is hoped that fusion plants could one day supply the world with cheap, non-polluting power, the crisis facing Iter is a substantial threat to plans to tackle world energy and climate problems.

- More… :arrow:

Posted in CrashBlogging, Mental Irrationality, Peak Oil, Science, Social Breakdown | No Comments »

Government review to examine threat of world resources shortage

Thursday, June 3rd, 2010

Study commissioned following sharp rises in commodity prices on world markets and food riots in some countries

[British] Ministers have ordered a review of looming global shortages of resources, from fish and timber to water and precious metals, amid mounting concern that the problem could hit every sector of the economy.

The study has been commissioned following sharp rises in many commodity prices on the world markets and recent riots in some countries over food shortages.

There is also evidence that some nations are stockpiling important materials, buying up key producers and land and restricting exports in an attempt to protect their own businesses from increasingly fierce global competition.

Several research projects have also warned of a pending crisis in natural resources, such as water and wildlife, which have suffered dramatic losses due to over-use, pollution, habitat loss, and, increasingly, changes caused by global warming.

- more… :arrow:

- research thanks to Tony H.

Posted in Climate Change, CrashBlogging, Deforestation, Financial melt-down, Food Shortages, Immigration Stress, Peak Oil, Politics - The Right Way, Rising Ocean Levels, Social Breakdown, The Perfect Storm, Water Shortages | No Comments »

China seals oil deals

Wednesday, May 12th, 2010

- This is part of a group of those huge but largely under-reported stories that are certain to shape our future world.

- Two examples (of which this story is one):

- Right now, all around the world, major powers are jockeying for their future oil supplies in the face of impending Peak Oil.

- Right now, all around the world, major powers are jockeying to lease lands in other countries to grow food for their own people back home.

- Just watch the news and see if, occasionally, you see stories on these subjects drift by; almost unnoticed.  And then reflect on what these stories really mean.

- Times are defintely going to get tougher.   A very serious game of Musical Chairs is underway.

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China’s oil demand is projected to grow by 80 percent between 2010 and 2030 due to its rapidly developing economy and in particular its growing middle class and exploding auto market.

CAP has a new map out showing where China is securing oil rights around the world.

China’s largest national, government-owned oil companies—CNPC, CNOOC, and Sinopec—have taken aggressive action over the last several years to secure oil abroad in an effort to cope with this growth and a looming global oil crunch. China’s recent overseas oil deals have the potential to deliver more than 7.8 billion barrels of oil to the country over the next several years.

- More… :arrow:

Posted in Conflict, CrashBlogging, Food Shortages, Peak Oil, The Perfect Storm | No Comments »

Ports – There will be blood

Wednesday, April 21st, 2010

- People struggle to see the effects of the oncoming Peak Oil debacle.   For a small and rather isolated nation like New Zealand, the effects won’t be long in coming in terms of the cost of goods and their availability.  Read on dear reader.

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On Easter Sunday, Kiwi exporters witnessed a minor miracle. The 260m container ship OOCL New Zealand cruised into Auckland Harbour, the first port on her maiden voyage to these waters. Capable of carrying 4578 containers, she is the largest freighter conducting regular services to New Zealand.

For Auckland exporters the giant vessel was a welcome sight, as she was in the ports of Lyttelton, Wellington, Napier and Tauranga last week.

Shipping companies have drastically slashed services to this country as they try to stem crippling losses – estimated at more than US$20 billion ($28 billion) globally last year.

The shortage of space means exporters are having to book up to eight weeks in advance and orders are being bumped and left on the dock during the peak season, which ends next month. Goods are also taking a day or two longer to reach their destination thanks to a shipping company go-slow policy aimed at saving fuel, reducing the shelf life of perishable goods.

So the introduction of OOCL New Zealand’s huge capacity is a boon. But she is also a troubling sign of changes in the industry that pose a direct threat to this trading nation’s ability to earn its way in international markets.

- More… :arrow:

- research thanks to Tony H.

Posted in CrashBlogging, Financial melt-down, New Zealand, Peak Oil, The Perfect Storm | No Comments »

After Peak Oil, Are We Heading Toward Social Collapse?

Wednesday, April 21st, 2010

Recently, Glen Sweetnam, director of the International, Economic and Greenhouse Gas division of the Energy Information Administration at the Department of Energy (DOE), announced that worldwide oil availability had reached a “plateau.” However, his statement was not made known through a major US mainstream media outlet. Instead, it was covered in France’s Le Monde.

One could assume that the US assessment of the oil decline was exposed through this particular publication perhaps due to some arrangement that Barack Obama made with Nicolas Sarkozy. (Maybe it is an indirect way to alert the French while keeping most Americans still in the dark on the topic, so that the latter bunch can ignorantly carry onward as usual. After all, no unsettling prognosis should disturb their slow return into shopoholic ways that keep the economy, particularly China’s, on which the US federal government depends for loans, going strong.)

All considered, there was not, as far as I know, even a ten-second blurb about Sweetnam’s message issued via newscasts in New England where I live. At the time of his declaration, their reports primarily covered ad nauseam the recent flood again … and again.

In a similar vein, no reporter discussing the deluge dared to raise the point that worsening extreme weather is on the way with climate change consequences in the mix, along with oil’s relationship to these outcomes. Moreover, imagine the effect on the Dow or NASDAQ if Sweetnam’s estimation and a discussion of connected economic ramifications got splashed all across the USA.

- More… :arrow:

Posted in CrashBlogging, Peak Oil, Social Breakdown, The Perfect Storm | No Comments »

Oil Supply Crunch: 2011-2015

Wednesday, April 21st, 2010

Concerns are mounting about peak oil, and there continues to be much debate over when the peak will be reached, whether a plateau can be sustained or whether the onset of decline would occur quickly, whether we will hit peak demand before we hit peak supply, etc.

There is convincing evidence that conventional oil production has already peaked, since we have been stuck at around 74 mbpd for over half a decade (despite the incentive of record high prices).

There also seems to be growing consensus that global liquids production (currently around 86 mbpd) is likely to peak within the next decade and almost certainly at less than 95 mbpd.

(Mainstream opinion a few years ago predicted no peak before 2030, with output at 130 mbpd.)

However, there are increasing warnings about an “oil supply crunch” within the next few years, not because of geological constraints, but because of under-investment.

These warnings began just over two years ago, yet the mainstream media have rarely mentioned them, so the public remains largely unaware.

Listed below is a chronology of some of these warnings, with URL links to the original sources.

One of the first warnings came from the chief economist of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol in the summer of 2007 and then reiterated in Nov. 2007, cited here:
http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=73

In May 2008 the Wall Street Journal ran an article entitled, Energy Watchdog Warns of Oil Supply Crunch:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121139527250011387.html

This was followed by a study from Chatham House, a highly regarded think-tank in the UK. In August 2008, it published a paper entitled The Coming Oil Supply Crunch in which author Paul Stevens predicted a shortage within the next 5-10 years. His 40-page study (which includes a May 09 reaffirmation of his 08 prediction) is available here:
http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/652/

On Nov. 15, 2008 the International Energy Agency released its annual World Energy Outlook, which was something of a bombshell. The IEA, which had been quite dismissive of peak oil, suddenly warned, “What is needed is nothing short of an energy revolution… the era of cheap oil is over… time is running out….”

It further warned, “Some 30 mb/d of new capacity is needed by 2015. There remains a real risk that under-investment will cause an oil-supply crunch in that timeframe” (WEO, Executive Summary, p. 7).
The Executive Summary of the 2008 WEO is available here:
http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/weo2008/WEO2008_es_english.pdf

more… :arrow:

- research thanks to Tony H.

Posted in CrashBlogging, Peak Oil, The Perfect Storm | No Comments »

US military warns oil output may dip causing massive shortages by 2015

Monday, April 12th, 2010

• Shortfall could reach 10m barrels a day, report says
• Cost of crude oil is predicted to top $100 a barrel

The US military has warned that surplus oil production capacity could disappear within two years and there could be serious shortages by 2015 with a significant economic and political impact.

The energy crisis outlined in a Joint Operating Environment report from the US Joint Forces Command, comes as the price of petrol in Britain reaches record levels and the cost of crude is predicted to soon top $100 a barrel.

“By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day,” says the report, which has a foreword by a senior commander, General James N Mattis.

It adds: “While it is difficult to predict precisely what economic, political, and strategic effects such a shortfall might produce, it surely would reduce the prospects for growth in both the developing and developed worlds. Such an economic slowdown would exacerbate other unresolved tensions, push fragile and failing states further down the path toward collapse, and perhaps have serious economic impact on both China and India.”

More… :arrow:

- research thanks to Tony H.

Posted in CrashBlogging, Financial melt-down, Peak Oil, Social Breakdown, The Perfect Storm | No Comments »

Govt must get serious about peak oil

Tuesday, March 2nd, 2010

- It’s the same everywhere.  This is from a New Zealand newspaper.

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John de Bueger looks at the implications of “peak oil” and suggests New Zealand should be getting serious about it.

A predictable howl erupted when it was announced that some parts of the conservation estate might be opened-up to small-scale mineral extraction.

This contrasted markedly with the barely audible mutterings from the same quarter when Gerry Brownlee announced late last year that offshore oil exploitation from our continental shelf held the key to future prosperity, with likely annual exports of tens of billions of dollars.

Given that the Zealandia plate on which these islands float is about one-third the size of Australia, it follows that the potential of offshore oil and minerals dwarfs any onshore prospects, even if it was Otago placer gold that kick-started this country’s economic development.

My initial suspicion was that thoughts of mining in national parks was a just a decoy tactic to redirect eyes onshore while the foreshore and seabed issue was being thrashed out, but perhaps this is being a little too Machiavellian.

It is more likely that our Minister of Energy has little or no idea of the real worth of untapped oil reserves (anywhere), given the coming realities of peak oil.

When he was asked some questions on this matter at an energy conference late last year, he gave the impression that even if he had heard of the concept, he certainly hadn’t mastered its implications.

In this respect Gerry is exhibiting the archetypal behavioural response of the caveman – a condition I hasten to add that he shares with 95% of the human race, and 100% of politicians.

That is a total inability to rationally weigh the seriousness of future risks against pressing short-term expediency.

- More… :arrow:

- Research thanks to Tony H.

Posted in CrashBlogging, Mental Irrationality, New Zealand, Peak Oil, The Perfect Storm | No Comments »

The world according to ExxonMobil

Monday, February 15th, 2010

- The big insurance companies like Lloyd’s of London have a vested interest in getting their analyses right as they have big money riding on their predictive skills.

- One might argue that a company like Exxon might have a greater interest in ’spinning’ their analyses.  But, they have to get it right with the version they’re using behind closed doors.   Here’s what they are publicly saying.   Makes for interesting reading.

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ExxonMobil – known as the world’s largest, most efficient, and most profitable oil company – has its own distinctive way of looking at the world. In its starkly realistic annual “Outlook for Energy”, it concludes that until 2030: CO2 emissions will continue to grow, fossil fuels will continue to dominate energy supply, and solar power, electric cars and carbon capture & storage will not become cost-competitive. But the company is not without idealism: it believes in the power of efficiency, dreams of turning algae into oil and favours a carbon tax over a cap-and-trade policy.

Todd Onderdonk, Senior Energy Adviser at ExxonMobil

Every year, energy giant ExxonMobil presents its own “Outlook for Energy”, its view of the world’s energy future until 2030. Although ExxonMobil’s outlook is based on essentially the same historical data as similar “outlook” reports from the International Energy Agency in Paris and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in Washington, it offers in many ways a different – and fascinating – perspective on the world. It may well be – although this is something no one can say for sure – a more realistic, anticipatory vision than the one offered by the “official” energy institutions.

Todd W. Onderdonk, Senior Energy Adviser in ExxonMobil’s Corporate Strategic Planning Department, and one of the main authors of the “Outlook for Energy”, explains the uniqueness of ExxonMobil’s report as follows: ‘The energy outlooks of some key government institutions typically reflect a set of certain policy assumptions, which help provide a wide bracket of possible outcomes rather than a forecast of what is likely to happen by 2030. For example, they often provide a baseline outlook that assumes no changes in energy policy. By comparison, in developing an outlook to guide our long-term investment decisions, we have to take a view on how policies, energy markets and technology are likely to evolve through 2030 to address economic, energy and environmental challenges worldwide.

More… :arrow:

- Research thanks to Mike D.

Posted in Capitalism & Corporations, CrashBlogging, Peak Oil, The Perfect Storm | No Comments »

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