– This article discusses the convergence of three of the factors of the Perfect Storm Hypothesis; Peak Oil, Global Climate Change and Water Shortages. It’s good that people are beginning to see that the conjunction of these factors is more worrying and significant than the fact of the isolated existence of any one of them.
– Dunlop discusses what he calls the “Tragedy of the Commons” and the fact that humanity needs to change, “from the winner-take-all individualism which has created so many of the “commons” problems, to a more co-operative individualism, where managing the global and local “commons” is paramount.”
– I find his idea resonates strongly with the idea of the Cycle of Civilization expressed on Paul B. Hartzog’s Panarchy site. My only reservation is that humanity has nevergone through one of these ‘cycles’ before so there’s no certainty that we will accede to it when our changing circumstance demand that it’s time. And my fear is that in our arrogance and in our blind acting out of our biological imperatives, we will blindly go on as we are until nature itself forces the change on us to our great and enduring pain (along with the rest of the biosphere, which will also have to pay for our sins).
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By Ian Dunlop in the Sydney Morning Herald of 16 Oct 06
Scorched earth
We are about to experience the convergence of three of the great issues confronting humanity. Climate change, the peaking of oil supply and water shortage are coming together in a manner which will profoundly alter our way of life, our institutions and our ability to prosper on this planet. Each is a major issue, but their convergence has received minimal attention.
Population is the main driver. In the 60 years since World War II, the world population has grown at an unprecedented rate, from 2.5 billion to 6.5billion today, with 9 billion forecast by 2050. That growth has triggered insatiable demand for natural resources, notably water, oil and other fossil fuels. Exponential economic growth in a finite world hitting physical limits is not a new idea; we have experienced limits at a local level, but we have either side-stepped them or found short-term solutions, becoming overly confident that any global limits could be similarly circumvented.
Today, just as the bulk of the world’s population is about to step on to the growth escalator, global limits emerge that are real and imminent. The weight of scientific evidence points to the fact the globe cannot support its present population, let alone an additional 2.5 billion, unless we embrace change.
Climate change, peak oil, water shortage and population are contributing to a “tragedy of the commons”, whereby free access and unrestricted demand for a finite resource doom the resource through over-exploitation. The benefits of exploitation accrue to individuals, whereas the costs are borne by all.
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