Archive for 2007

Antarctic Ice Streams Are No Bubbling Brook

Wednesday, April 25th, 2007

– A lot of good material comes out of the Climate Progress Blog.   Here’s another piece I found over there that is well worth passing on.

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Scientific and observational data from Antarctica are driving home the message that we have entered a period of consequences.

Most recently, scientists have discovered ice streams hiding bigger reservoirs of water in West Antarctica. The evidence has “major implications for glacial melt rates and associated sea-level rises“, and the rate of warming.

Equally frightening is that the ice streams feed into the Ross Ice Shelf, a major southern ice shelf whose melting would indicate “the end of the road” according to one scientist.

More…

Scientists feel climate report is too weak

Wednesday, April 25th, 2007

They take issue with how diplomats edited the latest warning on global warming and plan their own update.

BRUSSELS – Two distinctly different groups — data-driven scientists and nuanced offend-no-one diplomats — collided and then converged last week. At stake: a report on the future of the planet and the changes it faces with global warming.

An inside look at the last few hours of tense negotiations at the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reveals how the diplomats won at the end thanks to persistence and deadlines. But scientists quietly note that they have the last say.

Diplomats from 115 countries and 52 scientists hashed out the most comprehensive and gloomiest warning yet about the possible effects of global warming, including increased flooding, hunger, drought, diseases and the extinction of species.

The 23-page summary certainly didn’t sound diplomatic. But it was too much so, scientists said.

In the past, scientists at these meetings felt that their warnings were conveyed, albeit slightly edited down. But several of them left Friday with the sense that they had lost control of their document. At one point, NASA’s Cynthia Rosenzweig filed a formal protest and left the building, only to return, make peace and talk in positive tones. Others talked about abandoning the process altogether.

“There was no split in the science — they were all mad,” said John Coequyt, who observed the closed-door negotiations for the environmental group Greenpeace.

The report doesn’t commit countries to action, like the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, but those involved agree that the science is accurate and that global warming is changing the planet and projected to get much worse.

Still, scientists have their fallback: a second summary that consists of 79 densely written, heavily footnoted pages.

The “technical summary,” which will eventually be released to the public but was obtained by the Associated Press, will not be edited by diplomats. The technical summary, Rosenzweig said, contains “the real facts.”

Some of its highlights, not included in the 23-page already-released summary:

• “More than one sixth of the world population live in glacier- or snowmelt-fed river basins and will be affected by decrease of water volume.” And depending on how much fossil fuels are burned in the future, “262-983 million people are likely to move into the water stressed-category” by 2050.

• Global warming could increase the number of hungry in the world in 2080 by anywhere between 140 million and 1 billion, depending on how much greenhouse gas is emitted over the next few decades.

• “Overall a 2- to 3-fold increase of population to be flooded is expected by 2080.”

• Malaria, diarrhea diseases, dengue fever, tick-borne diseases, heat-related deaths will all rise with global warming.

• In eastern North America, depending on fossil fuel emissions, smog will increase and there would be a 4.5 percent increase in smog-related deaths.

– Thx to the Climate Progress Blog for the link I traced to this story

– To the StarTribune article, itself:

Science & Cargo Cults, Global Warming, The Devil, and Democracy

Wednesday, April 25th, 2007

– This piece comes from the Talk to Action Blog which I’ve been following for some time. Their focus is, in their own words, “a platform for reporting on, learning about, and analyzing and discussing the religious right — and what to do about it.

– For the most part, I try to stay away from religion as a topic here unless the actions of religious people somehow relate to my primary theme, The Perfect Storm. Talk to Action ran a series of articles some months ago that I reported on however because the subject was so over-the-top I couldn’t resist. Those stories had to to with the Left Behind: Eternal Forces Christian video game. See these links:

– In the piece, below, Bruce Wilson of Talk to Action, discusses the current growing disrespect for science in America today and analyzes why it is happening. it makes for interesting reading.

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Last October, I listened to United States Senator James Inhofe as he described, before an audience of perhaps one thousand people, his belief that Global Warming was a hoax foisted on Americans by a conspiracy to create a satanic one-world order….

n the end, faith in science is just that – faith. Have you ever seen a nuclear blast ? I haven’t, so how do we know nuclear weapons exist ? We take that on faith in the same way we assume that there’s a scientific reason our microwave ovens heat up our cups of coffee ; how do we know microwave ovens aren’t driven by magic, from elaborate incantations laid on microwave ovens at the factory in which they are made ? How do we know there’s a factory at all ?

Thousands of years ago, the Greek Skeptics demonstrated that it was impossible to really “prove” anything at all due to the facility of the human mind at generating alternative hypotheses for phenomenon. How do we know that there’s a world outside of our doors, really ? Can we prove we’re not brains in a vat ? How do we know we’re not living in The Matrix ? Or, how can we distinguish magical explanations for phenomenon from scientific explanations ? And, what happens to democracy when magical explanations, mystery cults in essence, supplant materialistic explanations of reality ? What does it mean when powerful politicians and religious leaders say scientific warnings about an alleged disaster of unprecedented scale bearing down on humanity and the Earth is really a satanic plot

20th Century Cargo cults believed that rich Western industrialized nations enjoyed a high level of material wealth from possessing special spells or magic that provided access to “cargo”, stuff that is. During the presidency of Lyndon Johnson one Pacific island nation where cargo cult belief was especially strong raised a sum of about $50,000 dollars as a bribe to offer president Johnson for the “secret of cargo”, the special magic that would conjure up cargo and so provide inhabitants of that nation the level of material prosperity enjoyed by Americans.

So, how do I know that “cargo” – consumer goods, the stuff of modern material existence – doesn’t simply pop into existence, conjured by magical spells ? Well, I don’t. I take it on faith. I could research the question by visiting factories where products get assembled and by traveling to mines and oilfields where raw material inputs for products get extracted from the Earth ; I don’t do that because I’m satisfied my explanation is “true”.

But, in the end, how am I different from a cargo cultist ? In the end I can only only give a qualified distinction – I believe in rational explanations rather than magical ones. And how can I demonstrate that my faith in a Heliocentric Solar System is better founded than the belief, by the Chalcedon Institute’s Martin Selbrede, in a Geocentric Solar System ?

In the end the Geocentric model assumes too much ; the theory is not parsimonious at all but posits that hundreds of years of scientific research and discovery, which has made possible such technological marvels as the computer I’m typing on now, nonetheless has gotten wrong a fundamental aspect of our reality. Geocentrism demands its adherents believe that centuries have passed and generations of scientists have been born and then died, yet it has only been in the past one or two decades that a tiny group of amateurs has uncovered the true nature of the Solar System.

I find that claim hard to accept because science is a highly competitive process and works in the end in ways not dissimilar to the way capitalist markets work. In science, better theories – which have more and wider explanatory force – arise in time to displace older theories which explain less. Individual scientists compete to generate the best theories and those who do attain status, favored teaching position, grants, awards, speaking engagements, and so on. Superstar scientists sometimes write bestselling books.

There is, in short, a competitive marketplace for ideas and so the claim that science has gotten the basic nature of the Solar System so wrong, and for so long, seems quite preposterous to me. It might be true, and computer laptops might be conjured, through magical incantations, out of thin air at a secret “cargo” factory inside a vast underground complex, run by aliens and nazis, hidden underneath the South Pole. Possibly. But that’s very unlikely.

More…

Taking Nature’s Cue For Cheaper Solar Power

Wednesday, April 25th, 2007

Science Daily Solar cell technology developed by Massey University’s Nanomaterials Research Centre will enable New Zealanders to generate electricity from sunlight at a 10th of the cost of current silicon-based photo-electric solar cells.

Dr Wayne Campbell and researchers in the centre have developed a range of coloured dyes for use in dye-sensitised solar cells.

The synthetic dyes are made from simple organic compounds closely related to those found in nature. The green dye Dr Campbell (pictured) is synthetic chlorophyll derived from the light-harvesting pigment plants use for photosynthesis.

Other dyes being tested in the cells are based on haemoglobin, the compound that give blood its colour.

Dr Campbell says that unlike the silicon-based solar cells currently on the market, the 10x10cm green demonstration cells generate enough electricity to run a small fan in low-light conditions – making them ideal for cloudy climates. The dyes can also be incorporated into tinted windows that trap to generate electricity.

He says the green solar cells are more environmentally friendly than silicon-based cells as they are made from titanium dioxide – a plentiful, renewable and non-toxic white mineral obtained from New Zealand’s black sand. Titanium dioxide is already used in consumer products such as toothpaste, white paints and cosmetics.

“The refining of pure silicon, although a very abundant mineral, is energy-hungry and very expensive. And whereas silicon cells need direct sunlight to operate efficiently, these cells will work efficiently in low diffuse light conditions,” Dr Campbell says.

“The expected cost is one 10th of the price of a silicon-based solar panel, making them more attractive and accessible to home-owners.”

More…

Australians warned of water cuts

Tuesday, April 24th, 2007

Australian PM John Howard has warned that irrigation of much of the nation’s farmland will be banned unless there is heavy rainfall in the next month.

Mr Howard said there would only be enough water in the huge Murray-Darling river system for drinking purposes.

He acknowledged that this would have a “potentially devastating” impact on many horticultural, crop and dairy industries around the river basin.

But he said there was no choice, and he described the situation as “grim”.

Irrigators are already warning that if they cannot water their land, there will be huge crop losses and Australian consumers will face large price rises.

More…

End of oil heralds climate pain

Tuesday, April 24th, 2007

Many people think that running out of oil, or “peak oil”, would be good for the climate. In his new book The Last Oil Shock, David Strahan begs to differ; he suggests it may bring catastrophe.

It is becoming increasingly clear that global oil production will soon go into terminal decline, with potentially devastating economic consequences.

Although the idea of peak oil has traditionally been ridiculed by the industry, now even some of the world’s most senior oilmen concede the case.

Last year Thierry Desmarest, chairman of Total, the world’s fourth largest oil company, declared that production would peak by around 2020.

He urged governments to find ways to suppress oil demand growth and put off the witching hour.

Other forecasters are convinced the peak date is even closer.

But many environmentalists continue to resist the idea.

Some seem to suspect that anybody who argues that oil production is set to fall must be a closet climate change denier with a secret agenda.

Others, like Stephen Tindale of Greenpeace, instinctively distrust forecasts of an imminent peak, but wish fervently that it would come soon.

“Let’s hope that the oil does run out”, he told me, “and that the world has to develop alternatives to oil seriously quickly, and from a climate point of view that would be an excellent outcome.”

Neither position could be more wrong.

More…

Organic lighting research burns bright

Tuesday, April 24th, 2007

The long, challenging technological march from the low-power light bulb Thomas Edison invented to the ultimate in a bright and energy-efficient lighting device may reach fruition in work led by the two ASU researchers.

A recent cover story in the journal Advanced Materials, a leading materials and device engineering research publication, details advances in the use of organic light-emitting diodes (OLEDs) by Ghassan Jabbour and Jian Li, with help from graduate students Evan Williams and Kirsi Haavisto, a Fulbright scholar from Finland.

Jabbour is a professor and Li is an assistant professor in the new ASU School of Materials, which is jointly administered by the Ira A. Fulton School of Engineering and the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences. Jabbour also is director of optoelectronics research and development at the Flexible Display Center at ASU.

The two have developed an organic lighting device with “100 percent internal quantum efficiency” by employing newly designed host materials coupled with optimized device architecture.

Internal quantum efficiency involves the number of photons generated inside the device per each electron from the electricity source – such as a battery.

What’s particularly significant about the researchers’ work is that their optimized device adopts an even simpler structure than any yet reported by other research groups.

“There is no waste of electricity,” Jabbour says. “All the current you are putting into the device is being used to produce light. It’s the first time something like this has been demonstrated. Nobody else has shown a 100 percent internal quantum efficiency for lighting devices using a single molecular dopant to emit white light.”

More…

Yangtze pollution ‘irreversible’

Monday, April 23rd, 2007

Large parts of China’s longest river, the Yangtze, have been irreversibly polluted, state media quotes a report as saying.

Around one-tenth of the 6,200km-long river is in a “critical condition” and nearly 30% of major tributaries are seriously polluted, the report found.

Even a huge reservoir created by the Three Gorges Dam has become heavily polluted.

China’s environment has suffered as a result of the country’s economic boom.

The government has pledged to clean up the Yangtze, which supplies water to almost 200 cities along its banks and accounts for 35% of the country’s total fresh water resources.

But correspondents say attempts to clean up China’s polluted lakes and waterways have been thwarted by lax enforcement standards.

The first comprehensive study into the health of the Yangtze found that 600km of the river were in a critical condition.

Around 14bn tons of waste are believed to be dumped into the river each year.

The river’s aquatic life had been seriously affected, with the annual harvest of aquatic products falling from 427,000 tons in the 1950s to 100,000 tons in the 1990s, the report found.

A huge reservoir created by the Three Gorges Dam – the world’s largest hydro-power project – had also been seriously polluted with pesticides, fertilisers and sewage from passenger boats.

“The impact of human activities on the Yangtze water ecology is largely irreversible,” Yang Guishan, of the Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, which helped compile the report, said.

“It’s a pressing job to regulate such activities in all the Yangtze drainage areas and promote harmonious development of man and nature.”

The report said a comprehensive management system needed to be put in place to stop further parts of the river from becoming critically polluted.

Original:

Quantum Secrets of Photosynthesis Revealed

Saturday, April 21st, 2007

– This is some amazing stuff. Folks at the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab have done work that indicates that photosynthesis’ high efficiency is due to its use of quantum mechanical effects. It’s puzzled scientists of years how photosynthesis can operate with efficiency as high as 90% while their very best solar cells struggle to exceed 30%. Here’s a possible explanation and it’s a mind bender.

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BERKELEY, CA —Through photosynthesis, green plants and cyanobacteria are able to transfer sunlight energy to molecular reaction centers for conversion into chemical energy with nearly 100-percent efficiency. Speed is the key – the transfer of the solar energy takes place almost instantaneously so little energy is wasted as heat. How photosynthesis achieves this near instantaneous energy transfer is a long-standing mystery that may have finally been solved.A study led by researchers with the U.S. Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) and the University of California (UC) at Berkeley reports that the answer lies in quantum mechanical effects. Results of the study are presented in the April 12, 2007 issue of the journal Nature.

“We have obtained the first direct evidence that remarkably long-lived wavelike electronic quantum coherence plays an important part in energy transfer processes during photosynthesis,” said Graham Fleming, the principal investigator for the study. “This wavelike characteristic can explain the extreme efficiency of the energy transfer because it enables the system to simultaneously sample all the potential energy pathways and choose the most efficient one.”

More…

070421 – Saturday – wee knees

Saturday, April 21st, 2007

On April 11th, I had an Arthroscopy proceedure done on my right knee.  It’s been needing a repair since I hurt it running last November in New Zealand.

I’d had the same procedure done almost ten years ago on my left knee and it worked out fine then.   Minimum fuss and minimum hassle.

This time has been different.  In the days after the surgery, my leg swelled up seriously and by the 10th day, I had blood pooling in my ankle area as evidenced by the large blue bruises on either side as if I’d sprained my ankle badly.

Of course I’ve quizzed myself as to why it should have been so different this time – other than the fact that I’m almost ten years older and 10 to 15 pounds heavier.

The clue, I believe was always there.   When I was in New Zealand sometime in December, I noticed that when I took my socks off in the evening, my shins above where the socks had gripped my legs, were swollen.    I have no idea how long they’d been like that.  Noticing something like that just seems to creep up on me – hanging out there at the edge of consciousness until one day I consciously note it and idly wonder why it looks like that.   It could have been getting worse and worse for months.  My wife says I’m fairly clueless about such things and she’s probably right.

In any case, when I went in to see my GP in March to start the process towards getting the Arthroscopy done, we discussed the leg swelling and he said that it can indicate, most commonly, heart of kidney problems.   I asked him to run what ever tests were necessary to confirm or preclude these and he did.   Blood work quickly showed that my kidney functions were fine.   Later, I had a visit with a Cardiologist and got to become a giant hamster and ran on a treadmill while an EKG machine watched my cardiac functions.   Then, when my heart was beating at about 140 beats per second, they slapped an ultrasound paddle on my chest and looked at my heart beating physically.   It was all good.  100% A-OK cardiac functions.  I was glad about that.

But, it still left the swelling cause unknown.  My GP tried me on diuretic pills for two weeks but I couldn’t see that they made much difference in the swelling.   He’d also told me that this just happens to some folks as they age for no known reason though more often to women than men.   The long and the short of it was that we decided to just let it be and pressed on for the Arthroscopy on the knee.   The doctor who was going to do the Arthroscopy had been appraised about the swelling and requested my kidney and cardiac test results – so he was in the loop as well.

Well, a four or five days after the Arthroscopy procedure,  my sense was that I wasn’t healing as well as I thought I should.   Of course, in that situation, you have to wonder if your own impatience is interfereing with your judgement.   On day five or six, we noticed that I had a lot of bleeding under the skin on the back of my right thigh and I’d been noting for days that the muscles along the outside of that thigh were as tight as a drum and very painful to touch or use.   So, I called the doctor’s office to see if I could send them some digital photos and they could then decide if I was having abnormal symptoms or not.  The nurse called back and declined the photos and said I could come in but also said that they clamp the leg at the thigh with a tourniquet during the surgery and that this can often semi-crush the muscle and lead to pain and some bleeding afterwards.   That reassured me so I let it go and continued to limp about.

I was taking three to four Percocets a day to deal with the pain and so that I could sleep.   And that’s an awful lot of pain medication for me.

On Thursday evening, on the 8th day, I noticed that my leg was swollen all the way down to and including the foot and that I had dark brusing marks on either side of my ankle indicating that blood was pooling there.   I decided to push to see the doctor the next day, Friday, rather than waiting through the weekend for my first scheduled follow up visit on Monday.

That same evening, as I wondered yet again what could be causing all these problems, it finally occurred to me that I’ve been taking blood pressure medicine, Diovan,and that it works by keeping your blood vessels from contracting.  Something was beginning to click.
Earlier, my GP had told me that swelling like this is basically caused by the clear portion of the blood leaking out through the walls of the blood vessels into the muscles and such.   The real question, of course, is why the leakage occurs and that’s why we’d run the kidney and cardiac tests.   But now I was wondering if one of the possible side-effects of Diovan might be swelling due to it contributing to increased leakage.  I stopped taking Diovan the next morning and went into see the Arthroscopy surgeon.

He said that my reaction was unusual but not all that rare and this kind of swelling just seems to happen to some folks after the surgery.   He was concerned however least I might have formed any blood clots which, if undetected, might break loose and form a blockage in the lungs or heart which can be fatal.   So we scheduled an ultrasound session that afternoon with a vascular laboratory to check this possibility out.    I told him my thoughts about the Diovan and he acknowledged that it might be possible but I don’t think he was deeply impressed by the idea.

The vascular ultrasound workup showed I was free of blood clots and everything was flowing fine so we went home.

Now, it is Saturday evening, at the end of day 10 and I’ve not been taking Diovan for 48 hours and my swelling has diminished significantly.  I’ve also been getting by on half-Percocets rather than full tablets every six hours.

Is there a moral to this long medical ramble?

Well, I don’t think so.   At least, nothing definite.   Perhaps, Diovan aside, today just happened to be turn-around day and all my symptoms would have improved even if I’d continued to take the Diovan.   Maybe.    But, just a few minutes ago, I changed clothes and took my socks off for the first time today.   Virtually NO swelling above the sock-line.   And, it seems to me that the general swelling up and down my leg has decreased significantly as well.   My wife and I looked up Diovan on-line by Googling “Diovan Side Effects Swelling” and kicked out a lot of interesting stuff including some reputable sites which discuss drugs and side effects like these: :arrow:.

If I had it all to do over again,  I would have dropped Diovan sometime ago to see if my leg swelling went away.   And, for sure, I would not have been taking it at the time of the surgery.

Diovan, and blood pressure control, for me, is not an imperative.  I have what’s called border-line blood pressure and Cholesterol and my GP told me that long statistical studies had shown that people with these two together in borderline areas benefited by taking these drugs and  lived a bit longer.   I was willing so long as I could afford them and they had no adverse effects.   Now, I’m going to have to rethink all that.

/medical-rant off