Archive for 2008

We’re all doomed! 40 years from global catastrophe

Saturday, March 22nd, 2008

The weather forecast for this holiday weekend is wildly unsettled. We had better get used to it.  According to the climate change scientist James Lovelock, this is the beginning of the end of a peaceful phase in evolution.

By 2040, the world population of more than six billion will have been culled by floods, drought and famine.

The people of Southern Europe, as well as South-East Asia, will be fighting their way into countries such as Canada, Australia and Britain.

We will, he says, have to set up encampments in this country, like those established for the hundreds of thousands of refugees displaced by the conflict in East Africa.

Lovelock believes the subsequent ethnic tensions could lead to civil war.

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Army’s $200 Billion Reboot Fizzles; Murtha Wants $20 Billion More

Friday, March 21st, 2008

– This story doesn’t amaze me at all. Having spent most of my career developing software, I’ve long believed that we humans can easily conceive of projects too complex for us to manifest. The first one I personally recall was the FAA’s project to reinvent the air traffic control system in the late 70’s. It crashed and burned amazingly.

– From my POV, a lot of the the problem is that too many people in the industry place their faith in software development methodologies and seem to forget that at each point in the process, a bright human being has be able to see, think through and understand everything important at that level.

– Well I remember having software development methodologies imposed on me at Motorola back in 2000 & 2001. It got so one couldn’t make a small and obvious change to three lines of code without calling three other engineers to a 30 minute meeting and talking about the change and then filling out a lot of paperwork. To me, it began to seem like fulfilling the requirements of the process began to be more important than making smart, robust and reliable software.  It got easier and easier to lose the big picture as more and more cover-their-ass methodology was layered on.

– These folks seemed to believe that you could take a lot of mediocre programmers and force them through the procedure and out the other end would come high quality software. I think they also liked the idea because it promised to reduce the corporation’s dependence on bright key programmers. With the methodology in place, they believed that programmers would just become pluggable widgets and could be obtained and let go as needed with impunity.

– Yeah right!   We’ll let the results speak for themselves.

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The Army’s gargantuan digital modernization plan has turned so rotten, a new congressional report says it’s time to start thinking about killing off the effort, and looking for new alternatives. Rep. John Murtha (D-Pennsylvania), the powerful head of the House Appropriations defense subcommittee, has another plan: Pump another $20 billion into the sickly, $200 billion behemoth “Future Combat Systems” before it drops dead under its own weight.

Future Combat Systems, or FCS, is the Army’s effort to use software and computer networks to turn itself into a quicker, lighter, more-lethal force by 2017. The vision is for fleets of new armored vehicles, ground robots and flying drones to be linked together by a wireless internet for combat, and by a common operating system. But FCS has been in trouble, almost since the day it began, with slipped deadlines, bloated budgets, unproven technologies and unrealistic expectations.

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Europe’s Next Green Thing

Friday, March 21st, 2008

Ireland’s OpenHydro and Germany’s RWE are spending millions to try to turn the power of waves into electricity.

With oil prices hitting almost daily record highs and global warming climbing up the public agenda, the need for alternative energy sources has never been more urgent. But while wind and solar have dominated the recent rush to invest in renewables, market watchers reckon it could now be marine energy’s turn to shine.

Ocean power — using the energy from waves or tidal flows to produce electricity — is quickly coming of age as a viable green resource that could help meet ambitious global targets to reduce greenhouse gases and dependency on fossil fuels.

European and North American power companies such as Canada’s Emera and Germany’s RWE are spending millions to fund wind and tidal projects. This investment has led to a new generation of more efficient technologies, with dozens of prototypes expected to be ready for commercial deployment within the next five years. “There’s huge interest in both wave and tidal technology,” says Thomas Boeckmann, clean tech analyst at market research firm StrategyEye in London. “It’s gaining a lot of attention from energy companies, which will be able to offer financial backing and technical expertise to these startups.”

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Global crisis deepening: IMF Chief

Thursday, March 20th, 2008

IMF head Dominique Strauss-Kahn says global financial crisis worse that originally believed, and worsening.

PARIS (AP) — The collapse of a Wall Street institution over the weekend shows the global financial crisis is broader than policy makers realized and it is growing worse, the head of the International Monetary Fund said Monday.

“The financial crisis which started in the United States is more serious and more global than it was a few weeks ago,” IMF Chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn said in Paris.

“The risks and dangers are very high. The economic environment is still worsening.”

The current crises will require a “global answer,” Strauss-Kahn said.

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Dangerous wheat-killing fungus detected in Iran – UN

Tuesday, March 18th, 2008

5 March 2008 – A dangerous new fungus with the ability to destroy entire wheat fields has been detected in Iran, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reported today.The wheat stem rust, whose spores are carried by wind across continents, was previously found in East Africa and Yemen and has moved to Iran, which said that laboratory tests have confirmed its presence in some localities in Broujerd and Hamedan in the country’s west.

Up to 80 per cent of all Asian and African wheat varieties are susceptible to the fungus, and major wheat-producing nations to Iran’s east – such as Afghanistan, India, Pakistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan – should be on high alert, FAO warned.

“The fungus is spreading rapidly and could seriously lower wheat production in countries at direct risk,” said Shivaji Pandey, Director of FAO’s Plant Production and Protection Division.

He urged the control of the rust’s spread to lower the risk to countries already impacted by high food prices.

Iran has said that it will bolster its research capacity to tackle the new fungus and develop wheat varieties that are rust-resistant.

Called Ug99, the disease first surfaced in Uganda and subsequently spread to Kenya and Ethiopia, with both countries experiencing serious crop yield losses due to a serious rust epidemic last year. Also in 2007, FAO confirmed that a more virulent strain was found in Yemen.

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Chinook Salmon Vanish Without a Trace

Monday, March 17th, 2008

SACRAMENTO — Where did they go?

The Chinook salmon that swim upstream to spawn in the fall, the most robust run in the Sacramento River, have disappeared. The almost complete collapse of the richest and most dependable source of Chinook salmon south of Alaska left gloomy fisheries experts struggling for reliable explanations — and coming up dry.

Whatever the cause, there was widespread agreement among those attending a five-day meeting of the Pacific Fisheries Management Council here last week that the regional $150 million fishery, which usually opens for the four-month season on May 1, is almost certain to remain closed this year from northern Oregon to the Mexican border. A final decision on salmon fishing in the area is expected next month.

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– This article is from the NY Times and they insist that folks have an ID and a PW in order to read their stuff. You can get these for free just by signing up. However, a friend of mine suggests the website bugmenot.com :arrow: as an alternative to having to do these annoying sign ups. Check it out. Thx Bruce S. for the tip.

Alarming Growth In Expected Carbon Dioxide Emissions In China, Analysis Finds

Sunday, March 16th, 2008

The growth in China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is far outpacing previous estimates, making the goal of stabilizing atmospheric greenhouse gases even more difficult, according to a new analysis by economists at the University of California, Berkeley, and UC San Diego.

Previous estimates, including those used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, say the region that includes China will see a 2.5 to 5 percent annual increase in CO2 emissions, the largest contributor to atmospheric greenhouse gases, between 2004 and 2010. The new UC analysis puts that annual growth rate for China to at least 11 percent for the same time period.

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Carbon Output Must Near Zero To Avert Danger, New Studies Say

Sunday, March 16th, 2008

– This quote, from the article referenced below, is at the core of Perfect Storm concerns:

Although many nations have been pledging steps to curb emissions for nearly a decade, the world’s output of carbon from human activities totals about 10 billion tons a year and has been steadily rising.

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The task of cutting greenhouse gas emissions enough to avert a dangerous rise in global temperatures may be far more difficult than previous research suggested, say scientists who have just published studies indicating that it would require the world to cease carbon emissions altogether within a matter of decades.

Their findings, published in separate journals over the past few weeks, suggest that both industrialized and developing nations must wean themselves off fossil fuels by as early as mid-century in order to prevent warming that could change precipitation patterns and dry up sources of water worldwide.

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Trading Vows in Montana, No Couple Required

Sunday, March 16th, 2008

KALISPELL, Mont.

The blushless bride wears a hooded sweatshirt of red, offset by a bored expression that says she’s done this dozens of times before. The distracted groom wears a sweatshirt-and-cap ensemble of matching olive, offset by his — not their — infant daughter, now fidgeting toward sleep just outside the cramped room where holy vows are about to be exchanged.

The judge, wearing a white outdoor vest, takes her usual seat and exchanges nice-to-see-you-again pleasantries with the young couple, whom she hasn’t seen since the last time she married them, a week ago.

The three principals get down to the business of solemnizing this marriage. And when they are done, they will have another to solemnize, and another, and another, and another, because this is Montana, the only state to permit that strange and sacred ceremony, the double-proxy wedding, wherein the presence of neither the bride nor the groom is required.

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– This article is from the NY Times and they insist that folks have an ID and a PW in order to read their stuff. You can get these for free just by signing up. However, a friend of mine suggests the website bugmenot.com :arrow: as an alternative to having to do these annoying sign ups. Check it out. Thx Bruce S. for the tip.

US Stands To Lose A Generation Of Young Researchers

Saturday, March 15th, 2008

– I’ve written before about this here: , and . 

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Five consecutive years of flat funding the budget of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) is deterring promising young researchers and threatening the future of Americans’ health, a group of seven preeminent academic research institutions have warned. In a new report released here, the group of concerned institutions (six research universities and a major teaching hospital) described the toll that cumulative stagnant NIH funding is taking on the American medical research enterprise. And the leading institutions warned that if NIH does not get consistent and robust support in the future, the nation will lose a generation of young investigators to other careers and other countries and, with them, a generation of promising research that could cure disease for millions for whom no cure currently exists.

The report, “A Broken Pipeline” Flat Funding of the NIH Puts a Generation of Science at Risk,” was co-authored by Brown University, Duke University, Harvard University, The Ohio State University, Partners Healthcare, the University of California Los Angeles, and Vanderbilt University.

It profiles 12 junior researchers from institutions across the country who, despite their exceptional qualifications and noteworthy research, attest to the funding difficulties that they and their professional peers are experiencing. These researchers are devising new ways to manipulate stem cells to repair the heart, revealing critical pathways involved in cancer and brain diseases, and using new technologies to diagnose and treat kidney disease.

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