Archive for 2010

Rust never sleeps

Friday, September 17th, 2010

– Recognizing patterns in the vast river of data that passes us by each day is one way to see the future.  But, unfortunately, our attention span is generally too short and we’ve not trained ourselves to be observant in this way,

– You may have seen a story like this a year or two ago and noted it and forgotten it.  It’s easily done.

– When I searched this, my own, site for “wheat rust“, I was surprised how many stories I’d already reported on this subject.

– It’s a bit scary how much passes us unseen in the river.  But I believe most of our futures are there if we just look….

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A new flare-up in an age-old battle between wheat and a fungal killer

Scientists everywhere have taken up arms against the rust. Tens of thousands of wheat varieties and wild relatives have been screened for anti-rust genes that can be incorporated into future arsenals. This spring, more than 500 researchers from 77 wheat-growing nations gathered for two major wheat conferences in St. Petersburg, Russia, to share strategies and discuss progress on various fronts. And in August, a team of British scientists released a very rough sketch of wheat’s genetic blueprint, which in a more complete form could simplify and speed up the breeding of rust-resistant varieties.

“There is a lot happening,” says wheat geneticist Jorge Dubcovsky of the University of California, Davis. “We are trying to develop better technologies, better breeding approaches.… I think at some point we will defeat the bastard.”

But scientists also lament a lack of funding, coordinated action and basic knowledge about wheat and its pathogens. A great deal more effort is needed to turn the first crack at wheat’s genome into information that’s meaningful for fighting the rust.

Worldwide, only a handful of labs do hard-core rust-related research, and many will accept samples of the fungus only during the winter months, when it’s too cold for potential escapees to survive. The rust is so feared that some trigger-happy researchers frantically deploy plants bred with single resistance genes — even though most scientists agree that a well-constructed genetic cocktail offers the best hope for staving rust off.

Rust’s reemergence

Wheat rust’s current rampage began more than a decade ago. In October of 1998, a plant breeder noticed a stem rust infection on wheat growing in his nursery at Kalengyere Research Station in Uganda. The discovery was perplexing because the wheat contained a gene called Sr31, which, along with a handful of others, had provided protection against the rust for more than a quarter century. A rust virulent enough to defeat Sr31 triggered alarm in the wheat community.

“Should the Sr31-virulent pathotype migrate out of Uganda, it poses a major threat to wheat production in countries where the leading cultivars have resistance based on this gene,” scientists from Africa and CIMMYT, the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center in Mexico, wrote in Plant Disease in 2000.

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SPREAD OF A KILLERStem rust strains that can overcome key resistance genes have recently spread across Africa and beyond. Some scientists worry that prevailing winds may soon carry spores to major wheat-growing areas of the Middle East and Asia.Redmal/iStockphoto, adapted by E. Feliciano

Those fears have since been realized. This extremely aggressive strain of the fungus, called Ug99 (for the place of discovery and the year that the samples were analyzed), spread to most of the wheat-growing areas of Kenya and Ethiopia by 2003. The fungus’ spores, easily windborne, reached Sudan in 2006. Ug99 then crossed the Red Sea into Yemen, the doorway to major wheat-growing areas in the Middle East and southwest Asia. Ug99 has now been sighted in Iran. And not only is the rust still on the move, but it is also mutating: Within the Ug99 lineage, scientists have identified seven variants that can overcome additional important resistance genes in wheat. One Ug99 variant that overpowers Sr31 and the gene Sr24 caused epidemics in Kenya’s crops in 2007. Another Ug99 relative has turned up in Ethiopia and South Africa, and Kenya reported in June rust infestations in 80 percent of inspected fields.

Ug99 has yet to rear its ugly spores in the Americas. But that doesn’t mean U.S. wheat farmers are rust- or worry-free. In North America, Australia and Europe, as well as in Asia and Africa, a sibling of stem rust — the stripe or yellow rust — is taking a toll. In 2003, yellow rust wiped out a quarter of California’s wheat crop. Last year, it devastated crops in China. This year, farmers in the United States, the Middle East and northern Africa have already reported serious yellow rust infestations.

“The presence of two virulent and highly aggressive yellow rust strains … at high frequencies at epidemic sites on five continents (including Europe) may represent the most rapid and expansive spread ever of an important crop pathogen,” researchers from Aarhus University in Denmark wrote in an editorial in the July 23Science.

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A New View of Gravity

Friday, September 17th, 2010

Entropy and information may be crucial concepts for explaining roots of familiar force

Explaining gravity to a small child is simple: All you have to say is, what goes up must come down.

Until the kid asks why.

What can you say? It’s just the way things work. All masses attract each other. Maybe to bright middle schoolers you could explain that spacetime is warped by mass. Or, to high schoolers, you could say that without gravity, the laws of physics would differ for people moving at changing velocities. Yet all those increasingly sophisticated answers merely invite another “Why.” As Sir Isaac Newton himself replied in response to similar questions, “hypotheses non fingo.” Which roughly translates as “I don’t have a clue.”

That such a simple question, about so common a phenomenon, has defied a direct answer for centuries might explain why the physics world has been atwitter lately over a novel attempt to resolve the riddle. A flurry of recent papers have examined this new idea, which mixes principles from string theory and black hole physics with basic old-fashioned thermo­dynamics. If this notion is right, gravity turns out to be a special sort of entropy, a result of the same physics that drives matter to give up its organization and order as it succumbs to the laws of probability. Toss in a dash of quantum mechanics and a pinch of information theory, and the universe emerges, governed on a grand scale by pretty much the same principles underlying the elastic pull of a rubber band.

While similar ideas have been suggested before, nobody has expressed the gravity-as-entropy story as intriguingly as theorist Erik Verlinde of the University of Amsterdam in an online paper (arXiv.org/abs/1001.0785v1) that appeared in January. Titled simply “On the origin of gravity and the laws of Newton,” Verlinde’s paper cooks up a mathematical pièce de résistance connecting gravity to thermodynamics. His ingredients include the law of entropy, the physics of black holes and some speculative conjectures on how space stores information about the matter and energy within it. His recipe replicates Newton’s law of gravitational attraction, and then with some additional mathematical seasoning he arrives at Einstein’s general relativity, the modern and undefeated champion of gravity theories. Verlinde’s analysis indicates that gravity emerges from physical dynamics analogous to basic thermodynamic processes. “Using only … concepts like energy, entropy and temperature,” he writes, “Newton’s laws appear naturally and practically unavoidably.”

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Drug-resistant superbugs found in three US states

Friday, September 17th, 2010

BOSTON – An infectious-disease nightmare is unfolding: Bacteria that have been made resistant to nearly all antibiotics by an alarming new gene have sickened people in three states and are popping up all over the world, health officials report.

The US cases and two others in Canada all involve people who had recently received medical care in India, where the problem is widespread. A British medical journal revealed the risk last month in an article describing dozens of cases in Britain in people who had gone to India for medical procedures.

How many deaths the gene may have caused is unknown; there is no central tracking of such cases. So far, the gene has mostly been found in bacteria that cause gut or urinary infections.

Scientists have long feared this – a very adaptable gene that hitches onto many types of common germs and confers broad drug resistance, creating dangerous “superbugs.”

“It’s a great concern,” because drug resistance has been rising and few new antibiotics are in development, said Dr. M. Lindsay Grayson, director of infectious diseases at the University of Melbourne in Australia.

“It’s just a matter of time” until the gene spreads more widely person-to-person, he said.

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This one goes out to all my ex-wives…

Thursday, September 16th, 2010

(Some of whom definitely don’t seem to get it)

“Forgiveness means giving up all hope for a better past.”

– Lily Tomlin

See the Christchurch Earthquake and all the aftershocks

Thursday, September 9th, 2010

– See a visual representation of the initial quake and all the ones that have followed it.

Click –> Here

NZ budget almost shock-proof: IMF

Monday, September 6th, 2010

– Another thing to add to the list of reasons why I am here.

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New Zealand is among only a handful of advanced economies where the government’s budget is best placed to deal with “unexpected shocks”, an International Monetary Fund (IMF) report says.

The National government has been criticised by the opposition for increasing debt to fund tax cuts during tough economic times.

But the IMF staff report released yesterday found New Zealand had the second smallest government debt out of the 23 advanced economies it analysed, suggesting the country’s budget would be well-placed to deal with future shocks.

The Washington-based institution examined a country’s “debt limit” based on its historical track record and its current debt level, which it describes as the “fiscal space”.

“Among the advanced economies, Australia, Denmark, Korea, New Zealand and Norway generally have the most fiscal space to deal with unexpected shocks,” the report said.

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– Research thanks to Tony H.

Military Study Warns of a Potentially Drastic Oil Crisis

Monday, September 6th, 2010

– The German military has come to the same conclusion that the US’s military did some time ago about the coming consequences of Peak Oil.   major players like China have been moving quietly for some time to secure future oil supplies to keep themselves running.   Soon, as things get clearer, we’re going to have a global game of musical chairs except it will be oil that someone is short of each time the music stops.

– These issues have been being discussed quietly for some time now.

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A study by a German military think tank has analyzed how “peak oil” might change the global economy. The internal draft document — leaked on the Internet — shows for the first time how carefully the German government has considered a potential energy crisis.

The term “peak oil” is used by energy experts to refer to a point in time when global oil reserves pass their zenith and production gradually begins to decline. This would result in a permanent supply crisis — and fear of it can trigger turbulence in commodity markets and on stock exchanges.

The issue is so politically explosive that it’s remarkable when an institution like the Bundeswehr, the German military, uses the term “peak oil” at all. But a military study currently circulating on the German blogosphere goes even further.

The study is a product of the Future Analysis department of the Bundeswehr Transformation Center, a think tank tasked with fixing a direction for the German military. The team of authors, led by Lieutenant Colonel Thomas Will, uses sometimes-dramatic language to depict the consequences of an irreversible depletion of raw materials. It warns of shifts in the global balance of power, of the formation of new relationships based on interdependency, of a decline in importance of the western industrial nations, of the “total collapse of the markets” and of serious political and economic crises.

The study, whose authenticity was confirmed to SPIEGEL ONLINE by sources in government circles, was not meant for publication. The document is said to be in draft stage and to consist solely of scientific opinion, which has not yet been edited by the Defense Ministry and other government bodies.

The lead author, Will, has declined to comment on the study. It remains doubtful that either the Bundeswehr or the German government would have consented to publish the document in its current form. But the study does show how intensively the German government has engaged with the question of peak oil.

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– Research thanks to Tony H.

Shake the strongest recorded in NZ

Monday, September 6th, 2010

new-zealand-quake

The fault that caused the 7.1 earthquake has been dormant for at least 16,000 years – and produced the strongest ground-shaking recorded in a New Zealand quake, GNS Science says.

Natural hazards manager Kelvin Berryman said the highest ground-shaking measurement of 1.25 times the strength of gravity was recorded at Greendale, near the epicentre.

The quake produced a 22km-long surface rupture and up to four metres of horizontal displacement in alluvial terraces deposited about 16,000 years ago at the end of the last glaciation.

When that period ended, rivers brought large amounts of gravel from the high country and distributed it throughout Canterbury, many metres thick in some places.

“Before Saturday, there was nothing in the landscape that would have suggested there was an active fault beneath the Darfield and Rolleston areas,” Dr Berryman said.

“Geologists have no information on when the fault last ruptured, as it was unknown until last weekend. All we can say at this stage is that this newly revealed fault has not ruptured since the gravels were deposited about 16,000 years ago.

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Earthquake postscripts 2

Monday, September 6th, 2010

Aftershocks continuing three days after the ‘main event’.   Had two 5.2 events overnight.   I just laid in bed and felt the building moving around me.   It makes a lot of noise as it shifts and then resettles.   I’m not really worried at this point.  The building has proven itself sound and six floors up, there’s no place to run anyway.

Colombo St. looking towards Cathedral Square

The army has turned out to help the police control access while the safety of hundreds of buildings are checked.   Other buildings are actively being torn down as quickly as possible to protect people.

Green army helicopters can be seen flying over the city.   It all seems quite surreal.   Everyone I’ve talked to seems to feel that time has been subtly altered somehow and that we’re in a bit of an alternate universe of something.

The news reports always show the heavily damaged areas but there are large areas that escaped without damage.   But, it is a sobering figure that of all the homes in Christchurch, a full one-third are damaged.

News story is here.

Earthquake postscripts

Sunday, September 5th, 2010

Still getting aftershocks in the 4 to 5 range here.   The NZ Army has been called in to help secure access to the central business district (CBD) as the police are stretched so tight.   The building inspectors are working their way through all the buildings in the CBD flagging each as Green (OK), Yellow (Use Caution) and Red (no way!).   Hopefully, in a few days the situation for all buildings will be known.

I’m working at home today which I rather like.  Working for a seriously high-tech company is a pleasure.   We’ve all got VPN access to the systems at work and sitting here at my desk at home is just like sitting there, downtown.

The office was quite a mess though.  Bookshelves tossed, plants toppled and general chaos.   We had two engineers there on US coverage when the quake hit Saturday morning.   I can’t even imagine what that would have been like up on the 10th floor.