Archive for the ‘CrashBlogging’ Category

PM warns of climate ‘catastrophe’

Saturday, October 24th, 2009

The UK faces a “catastrophe” of floods, droughts and killer heatwaves if world leaders fail to agree a deal on climate change, the prime minister has warned.

Gordon Brown said negotiators had 50 days to save the world from global warming and break the “impasse”.

He told the Major Economies Forum in London, which brings together 17 of the world’s biggest greenhouse gas-emitting countries, there was “no plan B”.

World delegations meet in Copenhagen in December for talks on a new treaty.

‘Rising wave’

The United Nations (UN) summit will aim to establish a deal to replace the 1997 Kyoto treaty as its targets for reducing emissions only apply to a small number of countries and expire in 2012.

Mr Brown warned that negotiators were not reaching agreement quickly enough and said it was a “profound moment” for the world involving “momentous choice”.

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Niall Ferguson: U.S. Empire in Decline

Saturday, October 24th, 2009

Ah, the urge to say, “I told you so.”, is strong.   This fellow is saying exactly what I’ve been saying for sometime now – the obvious.   Seen on The Big Picture.

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To the video clip…

Got Gas?

Sunday, October 18th, 2009

– A good friend of mine sent me this article saying, “Interesting article on natural gas“.

– It is, indeed, an interesting article but I saw it in a different light than many perhaps do.

– My response to my friend:

D,

An interesting and potentially game-changing story, indeed.

But, it is a classic case of humanity’s inborn tendency to jump at the short term relief without fairly balancing it against the long-term consequences.

To see the consequences, I’d like to see someone make the assumption that ALL the fossil fuel we burn from here forward is this cleaner gas.   And, to be really fair, we can drop all considerations of the collateral damages associated with obtaining the gas that were mentioned in the article.

Just assume that the world will continue growing and producing and have more babies and all the rest of it for the next 20 to 50 years – all largely fueled by this gas.

The analysis should show what will happen to the CO2 levels in the atmosphere from consuming just this gas.  And then it should consider the consequences of this change in CO2 levels on global weather, ecosystems, environmental refugees, depleted glaciers and winter snow packs, increasing desertification, species die-offs and an entire host of follow-on consequences that will attend continued rising of global CO2 levels.

Short-term thinkers are enthusiastic about these new gas producing technologies because they allow us, for the moment, to avoid having to deal with the really tough long term questions regarding what we have to do to get into a sustainable long-term homeostatic balance with the planet’s ecosphere.

Long term, it’s really the only question that matters much.

Everything else is an avoidance or a denial that only take us further down the road wherein we do not solve this problem and cause a major crater in the Earth’s evolutionary history; killing many species, altering the weather for tens of thousands of years and killing the majority of the human beings alive and reducing the ones that survive to miserable circumstances.

Not an insignificant outcome – and all the more terrible because, difficult as it may be, we could avoid most of it if we had the grit and the will to do so.

Dennis

Blog Action Day – Burn it Down and Salt the Earth

Saturday, October 17th, 2009

– Today is Blog Action Day.  It’s a good reason to post something about the mess we’re making of the world so here’s my offering – which I, in turn, pulled from Kevin Drum and Mother Jones.

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The Wall Street Journal reports that the good times are rolling again:

Major U.S. banks and securities firms are on pace to pay their employees about $140 billion this year — a record high that shows compensation is rebounding despite regulatory scrutiny of Wall Street’s pay culture.

….Total compensation and benefits at the publicly traded firms analyzed by the Journal are on track to increase 20% from last year’s $117 billion — and to top 2007’s $130 billion payout. This year, employees at the companies will earn an estimated $143,400 on average, up almost $2,000 from 2007 levels.

I sort of feel like I’ve run out of things to say about this.  There’s an insanity here that’s almost beyond analysis.  Wall Street can spark an economic slowdown that misses destroying the planet and causing a second Great Depression only by a hair’s breadth — said hair being an 11th hour emergency infusion of trillions of taxpayer dollars — and then turn around and use those trillions to return to bubble levels of profitability within a year.  And they can do it even though the rest of the economy is still suffering through the worst recession since World War II.  It’s mind boggling.

Is there any silver lining here?  Probably not, but I’ll try: If Wall Street can shrug off the worst recession of our lifetimes as if it’s a minor fender bender and get the party rolling all over again in less than 12 months, it means the next bubble is already in the works and its collapse will be every bit as bad as this one.  That in turn means it will almost certainly happen while today’s politicians are still in office.  So maybe news like this will finally spur lawmakers to realize once and for all that the financial industry needs to be cut down to size.  Half measures won’t do it.  Self-regulation won’t do it.  Compensation limits won’t do it.  Byzantine, watered-down rules won’t do it.  Something like a Morgenthau Plan for Wall Street is the only thing that has even half a chance of working.

More…

Global Warming – and denial

Sunday, October 11th, 2009

We watched a segment on 60 Minutes last night about how much worst forest fires have gotten in the Western U.S, in the last 10 to 20 years.   They were interviewing the fellow who is the top firefighter after working his way up from the lines for 30 years – a guy who’s seen it all first hand.

He said that a decade ago, of they had a fire over 100,000 acres, it was big news.   Now, we had two at over 500,000 acres last year and one of those was over 600,000 acres.   The fires are so big and the resources so small to fight them, that they have to let many of them just burn and the only time they will really focus and fight is if a town is under threat.

They asked him, directly, if he thought Global Warming was a factor in all of this and he said it would be hard to find a man on the front lines fighting these fires who doesn’t think so.   He also said that high fire season has increased by 78 days per year and that fires in the high mountain areas are much more common because the higher temperatures are drying things out now that used to remain damp and incombustible for a much long part of the year.   Some of the forests that are burning are burning so thoroughly that they will not be back in our life times.   And that in 100 years, half of the forest in the western U.S. that’s standing now – could be gone.

Deniers ought to take a look at this piece.  These are not pointy-headed intellectuals from the universities talking here.   these are the folks who are looking at and fighting the consequences of the climate change happening around us everyday.  Chilling stuff.

Check it out:

Why We Spend So Much

Sunday, October 11th, 2009

This from Kevin Drum at Mother Jones – excellent stuff.

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Bob Somerby wants to know why the media isn’t a wee bit more interested in why the United States pays far more per person for medical care than other rich countries.  Here’s the rough answer:

  • We pay our doctors about 50% more than most comparable countries.
  • We pay more than twice as much for prescription drugs, despite the fact that we use less of them than most other countries.
  • Administration costs are about 7x what most countries pay.
  • We perform about 50% more diagnostic procedures than other countries and we pay as much as 5x more per procedure.

Underlying all this is the largely private, profit-driven nature of American medicine, but regardless of how you feel about that, the main lesson here is how hard it would be to seriously bring these costs down.  We can jabber all we want about incentives and greed and systemic waste, but the bottom line is that if we want to do anything more than nip around the edges, we’d have to pay doctors and nurses less, pay pharmaceutical companies less, pay insurance companies less (or get rid of them entirely), pay hospitals less, and pay device makers less.  That’s a lot of very rich and powerful interests who will fight to the death to prevent any serious cost cutting, and it’s why Obama and the Democrats in Congress have largely chosen to buy them off instead.

If you’re curious about this in slightly more detail, the chart on the right comes from a McKinsey Global Institute study of healthcare costs.  (An older but more interactive version is here.)  Healthcare spending tends to be higher in richer countries, and since the U.S. is a very rich country it’s unsurprising that we spend a lot on healthcare.  However, even when you account for that, McKinsey figures that we still spend about $2,000 more per person than we should, a total of about $650 billion.  The chart shows where this extra expense comes from: the dark blue areas are places where we spend more than expected and the orange areas show where we spend less than expected.

No matter how you slice the healthcare pie, though, compared to other rich countries we spend far more, cover fewer people, get hassled a lot more, and don’t get much better outcomes.  Unfortunately, there are a lot of people who profit handsomely from this state of affairs, so it’s not likely to change radically anytime soon.  Baby steps, my friends, baby steps.

More…

Climate change: answers to every question you ever had

Sunday, September 20th, 2009

The Greens down in New Zealand have posted an excellent article which refutes most of the arguments that climate change deniers have ever brought up.   It is a great summary and well worth reading.

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Rather than reproduce part of their article here and make you then follow a link to read the rest, let’s just push you right through the link here, eh?

Link to the New Zealand Greens answers article here: 

A mean streak in the US mainstream

Saturday, August 29th, 2009

– What to say?   This is one aspect of the U.S. that I will not be sorry to leave behind when I shift to New Zealand.

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The Independent (UK)
Tue, 25 Aug 2009

The US tolerates more inequality, deprivation and suffering than is acceptable here

HealthCareFailureWhen we Europeans – the British included – contemplate the battles President Obama must fight to reform the US health system, our first response tends to be disbelief. How can it be that so obvious a social good as universal health insurance, so humane a solution to common vulnerability, is not sewn deep into the fabric of the United States? How can one of the biggest, richest and most advanced countries in the world tolerate a situation where, at any one time, one in six of the population has to pay for their treatment item by item, or resort to hospital casualty wards?

The second response, as automatic as the first, is to blame heartless and ignorant Republicans. To Europeans, a universal health system is so basic to a civilised society that only the loony right could possibly oppose it: the people who cling to their guns, picket abortion clinics (when they are not trying to shoot the abortionists) and block funding for birth control in the third world. All right, we are saying to ourselves, there are Americans who think like this, but they are out on an ideological limb.

If only this were true. The reason why Obama is finding health reform such a struggle – even though it was central to his election platform – is not because an extreme wing of the Republican Party, mobilised by media shock-jocks, is foaming at the mouth, or because Republicans have more money than Democrats to buy lobbying and advertising power. Nor is it only because so many influential groups, from insurance companies through doctors, have lucrative interests to defend – although this is a big part of it.

It is because very many Americans simply do not agree that it is a good idea. And they include not only mainstream Republicans, but Democrats, too. Indeed, Obama’s chief problem in seeking to extend health cover to most Americans is not Republican opposition: he thrashed John McCain to win his presidential mandate; he has majorities in both Houses of Congress. If Democrats were solidly behind reform, victory would already be his.

The unpalatable fact for Europeans who incline to think that Americans are just like us is that Democrats are not solidly behind Obama on this issue. Even many in the party’s mainstream must be wooed, cajoled and even – yes – frightened, if they are ever going to agree to change the status quo. Universal healthcare is an article of faith in the US only at what mainstream America would regard as the bleeding- heart liberal end of the spectrum.

As some of Obama’s enemies warned through the campaign – and I mean warned, not promised – this is the philosophical terrain where, his voting record suggests, this President is most at home. But many more are not. The absence from the Senate of Edward Kennedy, through illness, and Hillary Clinton, elevated to the State Department, has left his pro-reform advocacy in the legislature sorely depleted.

But there is something else at work here, too, beyond defective advocacy, and it lays bare a profound misunderstanding. Europe hailed Obama’s landslide election victory as evidence that America had reclaimed its better self, turned to the left and bade farewell to ingrained racial divisions as well. That was a benevolent, but ultimately idealistic, gloss.

Obama’s victory can indeed be seen as a reaction to eight years of conservative Republicanism under George Bush and a turn by US voters to the left. But that left is still quite a bit further right than in most of Europe. Nor was it just a leftward turn that cost John McCain the White House; it was also a rejection of the weaker candidate. Obama’s great asset was that he came across as more competent on the economy, at a time of global financial meltdown. From this side of the Atlantic, we convinced ourselves that Americans had voted with their hearts, but there was a considerable element of the wallet as well.

That wallet element helps explain the deep-seated misgivings that have surfaced about Obama’s plans for health reform. A majority of Americans believe they have adequate health cover. Their choice of job may be limited by their insurance requirements (and labour mobility reduced). And their calculations may be upset – sometimes disastrously – by accident or illness.

But with most pensioners protected by the state system known as Medicare, an “I’m all right, Jack” attitude prevails. It coexists with the fear that extending the pool of the insured, to the poorer and more illness-prone, will raise premiums for the healthy and bring queuing, or rationing, of care – which is why stories about the NHS inspire such dread. The principle that no one should be penalised financially by illness is trumped by the self-interest of the majority, then rationalised by the argument that health is a matter of personal responsibility.

The point is that, when on “normal”, the needle of the US barometer is not only quite a way to the political right of where it would be in Europe, but showing a very different atmospheric level, too. For there is a mean and merciless streak in mainstream US attitudes, which tolerates much more in the way of inequality, deprivation and suffering than is acceptable here, while incorporating a large and often sanctimonious quotient of blame.

This transatlantic difference goes far beyond the healthcare debate. Consider the give-no-quarter statements out of the US on the release of the Lockerbie bomber – or the continued application of the death penalty, or the fact that excessive violence is far more common a cause for censorship of US films in Europe than sex. Or even, in documents emerging from the CIA, a different tolerance threshold where torture and terrorism are concerned.

Some put the divergence down to the ideological rigidity that led Puritans and others to flee to America in the first place; others to the ruthless struggle for survival that marked the early settlement years and the conquest of the West. Still others see it as the price the US pays for its material success. What it means, though, is that if and when Obama gets some form of health reform through, it will reflect America’s fears quite as much as its promise. And it is unlikely to be a national service that looks anything like ours.

To the original…

– Research thanks to John P. and Charles S.

Climate change impacts in our backyards: the Southwest

Friday, August 28th, 2009

The Southwestern United States

A convergence of the highest population growth rates in the nation and the most rapid warming compared with other regions makes the American Southwest especially vulnerable to climate impacts.

“The fingerprints of climate change can already be seen in both natural and managed ecosystems of the Southwest.  Future impacts on the landscape are expected to be substantial, threatening biodiversity, protected areas, and ranching and agricultural lands.”  [quotes are from the June 2009 USGCRP report, Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States].

The Southwest already experiences very high summer temperatures and corresponding water and energy needs, intensified by a rapidly growing population.  Projected temperature increases for the Southwest represent augmented stresses to health, electricity, and water supply in a region that is already at risk.  As the climate warms, the current “tug-of-war among preserving natural ecosystems, supplying the needs of rapidly expanding urban areas, and protecting the lucrative agricultural sector, will be exacerbated.”

More…

Tiny particles pose threat: scientists

Friday, August 28th, 2009

– I’ve been beating this little drum for sometime now.   I think when we look back in the future on today’s science, this will be one of the big ‘gotchas’ we missed.

– I’ve written on this before here: , , , , and .

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Tiny particles in consumer products sold in New Zealand and around the world pose health and environmental risks and need to be tracked, scientists say.

Amid growing worldwide concern about the potential effects of nanoparticles, Kiwi scientists, academics and officials want the Government to introduce a labelling system identifying nanomaterials used in products on supermarket shelves and to maintain a public database of nanoproducts.

Nanoparticles are about 1000 times smaller than the width of a human hair and are used in more than 800 consumer products, including cosmetics, sunblock, clothing, food, washing machines and refrigerators.

A report on the opportunities and drawbacks of nanotechnology has just been published by the Ministry of Research, Science and Technology. It lists more than 70 actions the Government should take.

Report editor and University of Canterbury physicist Simon Brown told The Press that apart from nanotechnology’s obvious advantages in the computer and electronics world, there were known and unknown hazards.

There was a strong sense the Government had yet to face up to nanotechnology.

More…