Archive for the ‘CrashBlogging’ Category

U.S. infrastructure crumbling

Sunday, March 15th, 2009

The nation’s roads, bridges, levees, schools, water supply and other infrastructure are in such bad shape that it would take $2.2 trillion over five years to bring them up to speed. But even that huge chunk of change would only raise their grade from a “D” average to a “B,” according to the latest “Report Card for America’s Infrastructure” released today by the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE).

“We’ve been operating on a patch-and-pray system,” says ASCE President D. Wayne Klotz. That is, patch something and pray that it holds up—instead of providing regular improvements for aging facilities.

Like a car, he notes, if you keep skipping oil changes and ignoring the funny clanking noise, it’s going to be a lot more expensive to fix the major problems happen down the proverbial road.  In fact, the current estimate of $2.2 trillion is 70 percent more than the $1.8 trillion the ASCE estimated it would cost to bring the U.S. infrastructure up to par four years ago. And the D grade has remained the same.

“It’s the kind of report card you would have expected on the eve of the collapse of the Roman Empire,” says Stephen Flynn, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, a nonpartisan think tank in New York. “It’s not the kind of grade you want to bring home to Mom.”

Flynn says a major problem is that we take the infrastructure for granted, which makes it difficult to generate awareness until there’s a major event, such as the 2007 fatal bridge collapse in Minneapolis or levee failures during deadly Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

“There’s no sex appeal to invest in it, so we don’t,” he says.

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Disobedience of edicts has deadly consequences

Sunday, March 15th, 2009

– I’m as much a environmentalist liberal as the next fellow.  But sometimes, I think, “Enough is enough”.   The planet’s small enough as it is and we’ve got to work out how to get along with the biosphere that we’re all dependent on without destroying ourselves during the learning process. 

– We just don’t need or have time for fundamentalist idiocy like this. 

– Sorry, if that’s not PC enough.  But, we’re 10 folks in a boat built to hold six.   And I can think of a few who should go over the side now.   Sorry.

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Militants who have seized control of swaths of Pakistan’s Swat Valley have set today as a deadline for men to grow beards or face retribution.

In the latest edict issued by Taleban forces seeking to impose Islamic law on an area once celebrated as a tourist destination, men have been told to begin growing beards and to wear caps. Barbers in the Matta area, a militant stronghold, have been ordered to stop offering shaves, and have posted signs in their shops asking customers not to request them.

The Swat Valley, just five hours from Islamabad, has gradually fallen under the control of militants headed by the cleric Maulana Fazlullah. Despite claims by the Pakistani Army that they are successfully confronting the extremists, local residents say up to 80 per cent of the valley is outside Government control.

In recent weeks the militants’ tactics have become increasingly extreme. Corpses of people who have fallen foul of the Taleban have been strung up in trees and markets have been ruled off-limits to women.

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Foreign investors in the U.S. economy are wavering

Sunday, March 15th, 2009

– Just the other day, I published a piece here entitled, “Wen Voices Concern Over China’s U.S. Treasuries“.   Well, here are two more stories in the same vein.   Keep listening for that big shoe to drop.

Foreigners Wary of Long-Term U.S. Securities

and

China Blasts U.S. Economic Policy, Expresses Doubt in Financial System

– The weather barometer is hinting that change is on the way.  Jeez, with this many articles, we’ve almost got a full set of shoes, eh?

James Lovelock: You Ask The Questions

Sunday, March 15th, 2009

– Here’s a question and answer session with James Lovelock.  Well worth a read.

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The eminent scientist answers your questions, such as ‘Is the Earth really a living organism?’ and ‘Why do you like nuclear power?’

I have heard that the Gaia theory means that the Earth is alive. What does that mean, exactly? Roger Middleton, Chester

The Earth system (Gaia) shares many attributes with a living cell; it metabolises, it responds to changes in its environment, it can die, and it reduces its internal entropy by taking in high quantum energy as sunlight and excreting infra-red radiation to space. It does not reproduce, but something that has lived about 3 billion years hardly needs to reproduce; selection theory asserts that organisms reproduce at a rate reciprocally related to their lifespan. Gaia’s reproduction rate would therefore be expected to be less than one in three billion years.

Some scientists say that your suggestions for geoengineering sea algae will never work. Is it just pie in the sky? Guy Brewer, Nottingham

Those who claim that encouraging algal growth in the ocean will not reduce CO2 abundance in the air might be right, but they do not know for sure. Their arguments are based on calculations using theoretical models and not, as they should be in science, on observation and experiment. Evidence from the ice cores of Antarctica and from ocean sediments suggests that algal growth was more abundant in the ice ages. We also know from Antarctic ice core data that the low temperatures of the ice age were closely associated with low CO2. It reached as low as 180 parts per million, and this requires powerful biological pumps. What better than those of the abundant ocean algae?

More…

– research thanks to Robin S.

Carbon cuts ‘only give 50/50 chance of saving planet’

Sunday, March 15th, 2009

As states negotiate Kyoto’s successor, simulations show catastrophe just years away

The world’s best efforts at combating climate change are likely to offer no more than a 50-50 chance of keeping temperature rises below the threshold of disaster, according to research from the UK Met Office.

The key aim of holding the expected increase to 2C, beyond which damage to the natural world and to human society is likely to be catastrophic, is far from assured, the research suggests, even if all countries engage forthwith in a radical and enormous crash programme to slash greenhouse gas emissions – something which itself is by no means guaranteed.

The chilling forecast from the supercomputer climate model of the Met Office’s Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research will provide a sobering wake-up call for governments around the world, who will begin formally negotiating three weeks today the new international treaty on tackling global warming, which is due to be signed in Copenhagen in December.

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– research thanks to Robin S.

Solar panel prices to fall by up to 40 per cent by year end

Saturday, March 14th, 2009

– Now, here’s some good news among all the doom and gloom.

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The long-awaited drop in prices for solar photovoltaics (PV) appears to be close at hand. Soaring demand for PV and high prices for silicon have kept PV prices up for the past several years, but had two beneficial impacts:

  • Producers ramped up polysilicon production
  • PV companies pursued designs with less silicon.

The result is that Business Green reports:

The price of solar panels could fall by as much as 40 per cent by the end of the year as huge increases in polysilicon supplies lead to a sizable fall in production costs for solar panel manufacturers.

Analysts have been predicting this price drop for a while [– I had heard this prediction at a climate solutions summit in January 2008].

If this drop does materialize, it is quite a big deal and will help keep demand on its staggering growth rate with PV becoming one of the largest job-creating industries of the century, projected to grow from a $20 billion two years ago to a $74 billion industry by 2017 (see “Sharp to boost thin film solar capacity 6-fold to 6000 MW by 2014, U.S. hits snooze button“).

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Permafrost is thawing in northern Sweden

Saturday, March 14th, 2009

Areas with lowland permafrost are likely to shrink in northern Sweden.  Warmer summers and more winter precipitation are two of the reasons.  This is shown in a new dissertation from Lund University in Sweden.

Permafrost is ground that is frozen year round at least two years in a row.  North of the Arctic Circle permafrost is common due to the cold climate.  For several years, physical geographer Margareta Johansson at Lund University has studied lowland permafrost in peat mires surrounding Abisko.  Permafrost is on the edge of its range there.  Johansson states that permafrost is being affected by climate changes.

“At one of our sites, permafrost has completely disappeared from the greater part of the mire during the last decade,” she says.

In areas where permafrost is thawing the ground becomes unstable and can collapse.  This can be a local and regional problem in areas with cities and infrastructure.  Moreover, the thaw can cause increased emissions of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane from the ground.  Roughly 25 percent of all land surface in the northern hemisphere are underlain by permafrost.

The thawing of permafrost that occurs today is likely to continue, in Margareta Johansson’s view.  She regards it as probable that there will be no permafrost in lowland areas around Abisko in 50 years.

“With the present climate it is likely that the changes seen in permafrost in the Abisko area will also occur in other areas, and my study can therefore provide a basis for studies in other geographic areas that are next in line,” she says.

Margareta Johansson’s research shows that the permafrost in the Abisko area is thawing both from above and from below.  From above it is thawing primarily because the summers have become warmer and because the snow cover has become thicker in winter.  A thicker snow layer acts as an insulating blanket, which means that the ground does not get as cold as it would under a thinner layer of snow.

From below the permafrost is thawing probably as a result of greater mobility in the groundwater.  Margareta Johansson explains that the annual precipitation of both rain and snow has increased dramatically during the last decade.  More rain and more melted snow create more movement down in the groundwater, which thaws the permafrost.  Between 1997 and 2007 a total of 362 millimeters of precipitation fell annually in Abisko, which is a 20-percent increase compared to the mean annual precipitation for the years 1961 and 1990.

The dissertation will be presented and defended at Lund University on February 26, 2009.

To the original…

‘Coral lab’ offers acidity insight

Saturday, March 14th, 2009

Carbon dioxide emissions from human activities are acidifying the oceans and threaten a mass extinction of sea life, a top ocean scientist warns.

Dr Carol Turley from Plymouth Marine Laboratory says it is impossible to know how marine life will cope, but she fears many species will not survive.

Since the Industrial Revolution, CO2 emissions have already turned the sea about 30% more acidic, say researchers.

It is more acidic now than it has been for at least 500,000 years, they add.

The problem is set to worsen as emissions of the greenhouse gas increase through the 21st Century.

“I am very worried for ocean ecosystems which are currently productive and diverse,” Carol Turely told BBC News.

“I believe we may be heading for a mass extinction, as the rate of change in the oceans hasn’t been seen since the dinosaurs.

“It may have a major impact on food security. It really is imperative that we cut emissions of CO2.”

Dr Turley is chairing a session on ocean acidification at the Copenhagen Climate Change Congress.

More…

Climate scenarios ‘being realised’

Saturday, March 14th, 2009

The worst-case scenarios on climate change envisaged by the UN two years ago are already being realised, say scientists at an international meeting.

In a statement in Copenhagen on their six key messages to political leaders, they say there is a increasing risk of abrupt or irreversible climate shifts.

Even modest temperature rises will affect millions of people, particularly in the developing world, they warn.

But, they say, most tools needed to cut carbon dioxide emissions already exist.

More than 2,500 researchers and economists attended this meeting designed to update the world on the state of climate research ahead of key political negotiations set for December this year.

New data was presented in Copenhagen on sea level rise, which indicated that the best estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) made two years ago were woefully out of date.

Scientists heard that waters could rise by over a metre across the world with huge impacts for hundreds of millions of people.

There was also new information on how the Amazon rainforest would cope with rising temperatures. A UK Meteorological Office study concluded there would be a 75% loss of tree cover if the world warmed by three degrees for a century.

The scientists hope that their conclusions will remove any excuses from the political process.

Dr Katherine Richardson, who chaired the scientific steering committee that organised the conference, said the research presented added new certainty to the IPCC reports.

“We’ve seen lots more data, we can see where we are, no new surprises, we have a problem.”

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War passes; the climate is forever

Saturday, March 14th, 2009

Humans are better at dealing with crises than long-term problems, writes Tom Burke. The future could judge us harshly.

This is arguably the most important year in human history. The grandiose invites suspicion, so the previous sentence was written reluctantly. But ideas do not seek permission before they enter your mind, nor are they always the most welcome of guests.

The idea that this might be the most important year in human history was prompted by the headlines that greeted the New Year. War and recession, tragically familiar sources of human misery, dominated. Yet it was what was missing from them that provoked my unwelcome thought.

In December, a meeting on an issue far more important than war or recession to the future prosperity and security of literally everyone on earth will take place in Copenhagen. Yet, nowhere did its prospects make the front pages. Terrible though they are, we know that consequences of war and recession pass. Climate change is forever.

The punctuation of history is marked by the names of the places where order was restored after chaos had prevailed – Westphalia, Versailles, San Francisco. It is not an exaggeration to say that what happens – or does not – in Copenhagen in December will shape human destiny more deeply, and for longer, than any of them.

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