Archive for the ‘Conflict’ Category

Got Gas?

Sunday, October 18th, 2009

– A good friend of mine sent me this article saying, “Interesting article on natural gas“.

– It is, indeed, an interesting article but I saw it in a different light than many perhaps do.

– My response to my friend:

D,

An interesting and potentially game-changing story, indeed.

But, it is a classic case of humanity’s inborn tendency to jump at the short term relief without fairly balancing it against the long-term consequences.

To see the consequences, I’d like to see someone make the assumption that ALL the fossil fuel we burn from here forward is this cleaner gas.   And, to be really fair, we can drop all considerations of the collateral damages associated with obtaining the gas that were mentioned in the article.

Just assume that the world will continue growing and producing and have more babies and all the rest of it for the next 20 to 50 years – all largely fueled by this gas.

The analysis should show what will happen to the CO2 levels in the atmosphere from consuming just this gas.  And then it should consider the consequences of this change in CO2 levels on global weather, ecosystems, environmental refugees, depleted glaciers and winter snow packs, increasing desertification, species die-offs and an entire host of follow-on consequences that will attend continued rising of global CO2 levels.

Short-term thinkers are enthusiastic about these new gas producing technologies because they allow us, for the moment, to avoid having to deal with the really tough long term questions regarding what we have to do to get into a sustainable long-term homeostatic balance with the planet’s ecosphere.

Long term, it’s really the only question that matters much.

Everything else is an avoidance or a denial that only take us further down the road wherein we do not solve this problem and cause a major crater in the Earth’s evolutionary history; killing many species, altering the weather for tens of thousands of years and killing the majority of the human beings alive and reducing the ones that survive to miserable circumstances.

Not an insignificant outcome – and all the more terrible because, difficult as it may be, we could avoid most of it if we had the grit and the will to do so.

Dennis

China: The new Big Oil

Friday, August 21st, 2009

The country is snapping up oil fields from Africa to South America to the Middle East. Soon it may be able to rival the Western giants.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — China is on an oil buying binge.

Over the past few months, the Chinese government — or its big government-controlled oil firms — have closed or floated a slew of deals in countries all over the world. These deals have expanded the nation’s oil reach and may one day position the nation to match the skills of western oil firms.

The deals include a $10 billion loan the Chinese government extended to Russia’s Rosneft in exchange for a guaranteed cut of that company’s production. The Chinese have also gotten in tight with Brazil’s Petrobras, arranging a similar deal with the firm that is developing a huge new offshore field – one of the biggest new discoveries in decades.

But it doesn’t end with loans. Last week the Wall Street Journal reported that China National Petroleum Corporation is interested in buying all or a part of Argentina’s YPF for $14.5 billion, although a deal is far from certain.

In Africa, CNOOC and Sinopec are buying a $1.3 billion stake in offshore Angolan development rights from American oil firm Marathon. Angola has recently overtaken Nigeria as Africa’s biggest oil producer, and is one of Exxon Mobil’s (XOM, Fortune 500) favorite countries to invest in.

And rumors are swirling that the China National Petroleum Corporation will take the majority stake in Iraq’s Rumaila oilfield from BP (BP). Rumaila produces over 1 million barrels a day, and is Iraq’s biggest oil field.

It’s clear what the Chinese are doing.

“They are stilting on a huge pile of cash and they’re using this as a buying opportunity,” said Greg Priddy, a global energy analyst at the Eurasia group, a political risk consultancy.

More…

A new page here

Monday, August 17th, 2009

I’ve put a post I wrote in 2007 back up as a permanent page in the right column on this site.   It is entitled, “About War“.

It seems as topical today to me as the day I wrote it.

You might show it to the young men in your family, all full of testosterone and patriotism, who want to go and have a great adventure and fight the good fight.

Satellites Unlock Secret to Northern India’s Vanishing Water

Saturday, August 15th, 2009

– If this isn’t concerning enough, then reflect back on the piece I published back on July 1st about the water shortages coming to India and Pakistan because of the melting glaciers.

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WASHINGTON — Using NASA satellite data, scientists have found that groundwater levels in northern India have been declining by as much as one foot per year over the past decade. Researchers concluded the loss is almost entirely due to human activity.

More than 26 cubic miles of groundwater disappeared from aquifers in areas of Haryana, Punjab, Rajasthan and the nation’s capitol territory of Delhi, between 2002 and 2008. This is enough water to fill Lake Mead, the largest manmade reservoir in the United States, three times.

A team of hydrologists led by Matt Rodell of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md., found that northern India’s underground water supply is being pumped and consumed by human activities, such as irrigating cropland, and is draining aquifers faster than natural processes can replenish them. The results of this research were published today in Nature.

More…

The dissolution of European cultures

Sunday, June 21st, 2009

immigration– I’ve discussed Immigration and Assimilation before.   The idea basically being that if countries want to preserve their current cultures, that they cannot allow immigration of peoples from other cultures at too fast a rate.  When new people come in at too fast a rate, they do not assimilate into the receiving culture.  Rather, they establish new cultural enclaves within the receiving culture and once enough of them have gathered, the country’s cultural identity is fractured and either a new hybrid emerges or culture wars ensue.

– The report, below, from Belgian TV, shows that this is already happening in Europe.  The same thing, I believe, is going on in Britain, France, the Netherlands and Germany among others.

– Perhaps the deepest irony here is that the very countries that most of these Muslim immigrants hail from have no reciprocal intention to accept large numbers of immigrants from other cultures.

– Can you imagine large numbers of European immigrants setting up ‘Little Europe’ neighborhoods in any Mulslim country, building Christian churches and demanding that they be allowed to practice their European cultural and religious practices freely alongside the Muslim  locals?

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Click the following link to see the video: 

– research thanks to Mike D.

– Additional reading: , and

US condemns North Korean threat

Sunday, June 14th, 2009

– See here for previous pieces on the North Korean problem:

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North Korea’s threat to “weaponise” its plutonium stocks is “provocative” and “deeply regrettable”, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton says.

She said the move had been denounced around the world and would isolate North Korea’s government further.

The North said it would start enriching uranium and use the plutonium for nuclear weapons hours after a UN vote for tough new sanctions against it.

The US would vigorously enforce the new sanctions, Mrs Clinton said.

Speaking during a visit to Canada, she said that the latest UN moves provided the tools needed for “to take appropriate action” against North Korea.

The North says it will view any US-led attempts to “blockade” it as an “act of war”.

The warning from North Korea’s foreign ministry was carried by Pyongyang’s official news agency on Saturday.

More…

Recession fails to dampen world’s appetite for arms

Friday, June 12th, 2009

– Nice to know that some parts of the world’s economy are doing OK.

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STOCKHOLM – World governments spent a record US$1.46 trillion ($2.35 trillion) on upgrading their armed forces last year despite the economic downturn, with China climbing to second place behind top military spender the United States, a Swedish research group said.

Global military spending was 4 per cent higher than in 2007 and up 45 per cent from a decade ago, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, or SIPRI, said in its annual report.

“So far the global arms industry, booming from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and from spending increases by many developing countries, has shown few signs of suffering from the crisis,” SIPRI said.

However, the report added arms companies may face reduced demand if governments cut future military spending in response to rising budget deficits.

It also noted that US arms purchases – by far the highest in the world – were expected to rise less rapidly under President Barack Obama after sharp growth during the Bush Administration.

More…

Global Warming Will Wreck Your Business Plan

Friday, June 12th, 2009

Climate change will increase water scarcity, alter food production and dramatically change energy supply and migration patterns, according to a new report released by Lloyd’s, the world’s leading specialist insurance market.

Climate change and security: risks and opportunities for business, launched in conjunction with the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), highlights that these changes will bring threats – and opportunities – for businesses.

Lloyd’s Chief Executive, Dr Richard Ward, said:

“Climate change will change the way we live and work, and will lead to greater competition for scarce resources, such as food and water. This is likely to result in increased economic nationalism and greater global insecurity, which will in turn add to the complexity and cost of doing business.”

Wow…this guy has some balls. To mention that shortages “such as food and water” will “add to the complexity and cost of doing business…” I mean who cares about all the death and destruction that will cause…can’t have the cost of business get higher.

He goes on to say:

“Every organization needs to have a clear understanding of its particular vulnerabilities and have in place a range of mitigation strategies. Their ability to understand what the impacts of climate change are going to be could not only protect them from threats but could also open up new business opportunities.”

Yea so you know, take a look at the world falling to pieces and see where you can get in there and make a buck.

IISS Director of Transnational Threats and Political Risks, Nigel Inkster, said:

“Climate change has the potential to act as an accelerator of global instability and has been recognized in both the USA and Europe as an issue affecting national security. Climate change could lead to increased competition between states for ever more scare resources and could in the worst case lead to inter-state conflict.”

more…

– Hat tip to The Naib at The Sietch Blog for this

North Korea would use nuclear weapons in a ‘merciless offensive’

Tuesday, June 9th, 2009

– Ever wondered why the world lets North Korea boast and swagger like they do?

– They starve their own people and worship their ‘great leaders’ like they are gods.    They test fire missiles right over Japan and they develop nuclear weapons right in front of us with an ‘in your face‘ attitude.

– The why has to do with the size of their standing army (700,000 within 90 miles of the South Korean border) … and with the physical location of Seoul, the capital of South Korea.

The layout of the Koreas

The layout of the Koreas

Check the map:

– Seoul is within the range of vast arrays of North Korean artillery and it is far too close to the border to save it if the North Koreans swarmed across en masse.

– In short, for those who oppose North Korea’s insanity, the cards are very badly dealt.   Yes, we could do a full body slam on them and take them down once and for all, but it would inevitably cost us the capital city of a major ally.   NOT a good choice.

– So, we talk to the North Koreans and try to reason with them and we hope that their semi-insane leadership will simply die of stupidity or something soon so saner minds can take over.   We dicker with Russia and China, who love to play the ‘people’s devil’s advocates‘ in such situations – so long as their bacon’s not in the fire.

– And then, China has an additional problem with North Korea that we don’t hear much about here in the west.   And that is unwanted immigration.   The North Korean / Chinese border isn’t much more effective than the U.S. / Mexico border.   And North Korea has a lot of desperate starving people who want to get to the ever so much more affluent China  and the Chinese have a lot on their hand now just dealing with those coming across.   Without the cooperation and good-will of the North Korean authorities, they’d have a lot bigger problem – and they don’t need that.

– So, we cannot act against North Korea without hurting ourselves badly and yet they just cannot be allowed to go on like they are.   It’s that fatal embrace business again.

– If you doubt what I’m saying here, then just read the following article:

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North Korea today said it would use nuclear weapons in a “merciless offensive” if provoked — its latest bellicose rhetoric apparently aimed at deterring any international punishment for its recent atomic test blast.

The tensions emanating from Pyongyang are beginning to hit nascent business ties with the South: a Seoul-based fur manufacturer became the first South Korean company to announce Monday it was pulling out of an industrial complex in the North’s border town of Kaesong.

The complex, which opened in 2004, is a key symbol of rapprochement between the two Koreas but the goodwill is evaporating quickly in the wake of North Korea’s nuclear test on May 25 and subsequent missile tests.

Pyongyang raised tensions a notch by reviving its rhetoric in a commentary in the state-run Minju Joson newspaper today.

“Our nuclear deterrent will be a strong defensive means…as well as a merciless offensive means to deal a just retaliatory strike to those who touch the country’s dignity and sovereignty even a bit,” said the commentary, carried by the official Korean Central News Agency.

It appeared to be the first time that North Korea referred to its nuclear arsenal as “offensive” in nature. Pyongyang has long claimed that its nuclear weapons program is a deterrent and only for self-defense against what it calls US attempts to invade it.

More…

– Research thanks to Charles P.

China’s rare earth monopoly threatens global suppliers, rival producers claim

Friday, June 5th, 2009

– I’ve said it before; as resources get scarce, it is going to get to be like a vicious game of musical chairs and each time the music stops for something essential, someone is going to find them self without.

– You’d have to be living under a rock to not have realized that this sort of thing is already going on with respect to oil, land to grow food and water.   And the games for these have only just begun.

– There are other lesser know commodities that are going to become very scarce and thus very expensive.   I’ve been following Helium and Lithium for the last year or more in this respect. Perhaps I’ll write something on each of these soon.

– Now we hear that China has quietly been cornering most of the world’s supply of rare earth ore.

– The world is going to get to be a pretty small and tough place before too very many years go by.

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The Chinese acquisition of stakes in Australian rare earth miners Lynas Corporation and Arafura Resources has “caught the rest of the world sleeping,” said Rod McIllree, managing director at Australian-based Greenland Minerals & Energy (GME).

Following two acquisitions in the past six months for an aggregate USD 163m, Korean, Japanese and Western players may find themselves locked out of the sector, McIllree told mergermarket. Speculation is rife as to what this may mean for the high tech and green industries that rely on rare earth metal resources. With over 90% of the global rare earth resource held by Chinese companies, the country’s monopoly looks unchallenged. The recent Australian acquisitions have brought China control of the majority of the rare earth deposits outside China.

Rare Earth metals are a collection of 17 different metals that occur within the same ore deposits. While China currently produces 95% of the worlds rare earth supply, the metals are also found in the US, Indonesia, Australia and South Africa. Rare earth metals are needed for the manufacturing of wind turbines, plasma televisions, mobile phones, hybrid car batteries meaning the Chinese monopoly could shift the high-tech manufacturing industry bases from Japan and Korea to China.

Acquisitions of Australian rare earth miners are strongly backed by the Chinese Government, a China-based industrial banker said. Since 2004, or even earlier, the Chinese government has treated rare earth resources as strategic. In order to protect the resources available to China, the government employs a three-pronged strategy; rare earth exports are restricted, imports encouraged, and outbound rare earth acquisitions actively encouraged.

More…

– Hat tip to Cryptogon for making me aware of this story.