Archive for the ‘Financial melt-down’ Category

Record drop in the Dow today

Monday, September 29th, 2008

– I’m really surprised that anyone who calls themselves a Republican dares to even show their face out of doors after this mess.   ‘The party of Deregulation’, ‘the party of free markets’.   Yow, the party that finally destroyed the country be removing all the bars to greedy behavior.

– There are a couple of posts out there today that I want to reference.  They catch the flavor of where we are right now, in my opinion.

– First , here’s a bit from James Kunstler’s Cluster Fuck Nation Blog.  I always love his analysis and his ability to scathe the ground down to bedrock.

The big effort of Mr. Paulson and his working group has been to ram through legislation that at all costs avoids any attempt to place a reality-based value on this bad debt. He managed it by holding a gun to Congress’s collective head, telling them in plain English that a genuine “work-out” of these “toxic” investments would set in motion a fatal cascade of credit default swaps which would leave the entire banking landscape a smoldering wasteland — with the result that virtually every retirement account and pension fund would go up in a vapor, the Federal Reserve and the FDIC would melt away to twin piles of goo, scores of millions of lives would be ruined, and the USA would be left a basket case among nations, making us envy even the fate of Haiti and Zimbabwe. Talk like that might prompt a congress-person to do any fool thing.

– More of this…

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– And then there’s what I might call “The school of the other shoe dropping“.  

– Oh, there have been many dire predictions and a lot of scoffing.    Followed, at some point later, by a glowing crater where the issue in question used to be.  

– Remember, just a few weeks ago the statements coming out of WaMu about how healthy they were and how there was no doubt that they could weather the storm?   Right.

– So here’s a story I’ve been watching for a week or more now.   Little murmurings about the slight (oh, really – just very small) possibility that the Hedge Funds might be the next part of the market to crater.  

– See what you think.  Here’s Kevin Drum, who is now with Mother Jones:

HEDGE FUND WATCH….The end of the third quarter is nearly upon us, and hedge fund managers are feeling nervous:

Even as Washington reached a tentative agreement on Sunday over what may become the largest financial bailout in American history, new worries were building inside the nearly $2 trillion world of hedge funds. After years of explosive growth, losses are mounting — and so are concerns that some investors will head for the exits.

….The big worry is that a spate of hurried sales could unleash a vicious circle within the hedge fund industry, with the sales leading to more losses, and those losses leading to more withdrawals, and so on. A big test will come on Tuesday, when many funds are scheduled to accept withdrawal requests for the end of the year.

“Everybody’s watching for redemptions,” said James McKee, director of hedge fund research at Callan Associates, a consulting firm in San Francisco. “And there could be a cascading effect, where redemptions cause other redemptions.”

The article says optimistically that “No one expects a wholesale flight from hedge funds.” But no one ever does, do they?

– To the original…

– Yep.  I don’t think we’ve seen the end of this yet.   And I say that after the worst one-day drop the Dow has ever seen.

– I wonder what the odds are of the Republicans getting the White House again?   One would hope that the odds are slim after this fiasco.  But then this country seems to be populated with a very large number of mostly clueless people who disdain intellectualism, science, reason, and common sense.  So, who knows?

Republican Government Announces New Socialist Corporate Bailout

Saturday, September 20th, 2008

– An excellent and sharp edged bit of writing from The Sietch Blog:

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Thats right, the unthinkable (if you are a free market republican) has happened. The REPUBLICANS after years of steadily chopping away regulation after regulation seem to be super surprised that in a market that has no laws, or rules, or even guide lines….crazy greed induced meltdown has occurred. Let me be the first to say…DUH!

It doesn’t take a mental giant to realize that people will get away with what they can. Because the Bush administration has been so lax in it’s oversight of financial markets (I will lump in the republican congress that went along with him for most of the last 8 years, and even sprinkle a little blame on the Democrats who have only been in power for the last 2) that the fox left to guard the hen house has long since eaten all the chickens.

Here is a two minute history lesson. After the great depression, FDR and a bunch of other “liberals” put into place a bunch of laws to make it impossible for the banking world, and the finacial markets to get too cozy. As soon as the gavel struck on the supreme courts desk giving Bush the win in 2000 those rules began to be attacked (to be fair Regan and Bush 1 did their best to kill as many of them as they could as well). 8 years later, we have no rules, and an economic shit storm.

So in essence, every single splinter of the conservative plank has fallen apart. Economically, ecologically, diplomatically, constitutionally, socially, every single thing they stand for has been proven WRONG by the events on the ground.

More… (and well worth reading)

How Financial Madness Overtook Wall Street

Friday, September 19th, 2008

– This is a great read from Time Magazine – highly recommended.

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If you’re having a little trouble coping with what seems to be the complete unraveling of the world’s financial system, you needn’t feel bad about yourself. It’s horribly confusing, not to say terrifying; even people like us, with a combined 65 years of writing about business, have never seen anything like what’s going on. Some of the smartest, savviest people we know — like the folks running the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve Board — find themselves reacting to problems rather than getting ahead of them. It’s terra incognita, a place no one expected to visit.

More…

-research thanks to John P.

Idiots Fiddle While Rome Burns

Thursday, September 11th, 2008

– I really like Barry Ritholtz’s commentary on financial matters on his Big Picture Blog.

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The collection of ne’er do wells, clueless dolts, political hacks, and oh, let’s just be blunt and call them what they are — total Idiots — expands into an ever larger circle.

While the Republic burns due to the unsavory combination of incompetence, ideological rigidity, and crony capitalism, the fools and assclowns seem ever more determined to avoid any personal responsibility for the damages they have wrought. Instead, they flail about blindly, blaming everything and everyone — except their own horrific negligence.

This is financial incompetence writ on a scale far grander than anything seen for centuries.

As a nation, our institutions have failed us: Under Alan Greenspan, the Federal Reserve slept through the most reckless and irresponsible expansion of bank lending in history for reasons of ideological purity. His opposition to the Fed’s regulatory role reached the point of malfeasance long ago.  History is unlikely to be kind to the Maestro.

More…

Candid Europe

Monday, September 8th, 2008

– I have great friends.   I guess maybe that comes with age.  But many of these folks have risen to positions in their careers which give them great views that not many of the rest of us are privileged to share.  

– Occasionally, they share the view from where they are with me.   And in this world of endless spin, I find this highly valuable.   

– Below, are a few paragraphs that a friend of mine, who works in a large international organization in Europe, wrote me.  

– I trust his intelligence, his candor and his proximity to the things he discusses.   In short, it’s a relatively clear view of something we would normally only see through a fog of spin and ideology.

– My friend shall remain nameless.  Enjoy.

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It is very interesting in Europe.  First, the European Union for the most part has control of the currency (the Euro) not all old member states are under the Euro, (Denmark, Sweden, UK), and the newer member states are not all in the Euro (Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria, Poland, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania).  So I think it is 13 European countries which are laboring under the Euro which includes France, Spain, Germany, Italy, Greece, Portugal, Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg, Cyprus, Finland, Slovenia, Ireland.  But, these for the most part are the economic dynamos.  I might not have the Euro members exactly correct, but it is close and off the top of my head.  Anyway, the main point is that the European Central Bank (ECB) does not act like our Federal Reserve.  The ECB is charged with keeping Inflation at or below 3% across the board.  It might be 2% but I think its 3.  So, when someplace like Spain gets a head of inflationary  steam, then the ECB would screw with interest rates and other controls to curb  this villain. This was a solution looking for a problem. This has been disruptive in some cases because if a smaller nation causes the ECB to react, it could really affect larger nations, like Germany, to enter an economic downturn where things were otherwise OK.

Overall this has more or less worked OK, but it really has not had to deal with a major economic problem like that which is coming.  If you will notice, the dollar is slowly strengthening against the Euro. This is because the European economy follows the US lead but it traditionally lags by 9 months to a year.  The UK seems to have a much shorter lag, and they are feeling the crunch now. Real Estate in Spain and France is in dire straights. Europe is beginning to head south at this time.  The ECB now has to make a decision about broadening its mandate. All bets are that it will reduce interest rates to stimulate the EU economy even though inflation is not where they want it. That in part is why the dollar is strengthening.  High interest rates attract capital which causes the currency to strengthen.  So if the ECB reduces or indicates lower interest rates, then the currency depreciates.

There are other problems also, no real wage growth for years, very high social programs which drain investment capital. None of this can hold because the Asian tigers are gobbling up everything in sight.  So what we have is a massive drain of capital (National Wealth) towards Asia.  Also, Asia is stealing all the intellectual capital. To me all of this means that at some point in time Europe and the US become has-been nations.

This issue with Russia is very interesting. It has revealed the real weakness in Europe’s ability to defend itself.  For years they have lived under the US umbrella which as you know can’t extend this far due to world wide commitments. The amount they (Europe at large) spend on national defense is very low.  They are not equipped to defend themselves at all. Our (USA) equipment is wearing out, our troops are tired, and our national will is spent.  Russia knows this and is taking full advantage. For some reason the Europeans are deluded into thinking it is really not a big deal.  Shades of Pre-WW II wishfull thinking.  They are also extremely dependent upon Russia for energy.  By taking Georgia, they [ Russia] have severely tightened the screws.

My overall assessment is that economically Europe is headed South.  This very well could cause a huge social upheaval.  We will just have to wait and see how deep this thing gets.

By the way I saw something yesterday about the number of Americans now in trouble with mortgages. It is about 10%.  The Fed is going to intervene in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  I am afraid that I do not see any leadership coming that will deal with these issues.  Reminds me of the old Chinese curse “May you live in interesting times”. OR, can we say depression???

Where have all the Doctors Gone?

Wednesday, August 27th, 2008

– I received a magazine with a story by this title and I wanted to see if I could find it on-line so I could Blog about it and provide a reference.   Imagine my surprise when a long list of stories with this name came up.

– This should be a wake up call to anyone that the takeover of the medical industry by large health care corporations in the U.S. – is not in the best interests of the people.

– Primary Care Physicians are disappearing fast from the American scene because of the amount of time and aggravation they have to endure justifying their decisions to insurance companies and healthcare management.

– Let me say it simply:  Health care should be about making people well, not about corporate profits.   We’ve gone very badly off the tracks in this country on this issue.

– Here’s a list of stories I came up with by Googling, “Where have all the doctors gone

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Boston Globe: 

New York Times: 

Columbia Journalism Review 

Physician’s News Digest: 

San Francisco Business Times: 

– And the story I originally went looking for by that same title, in the AARP Magazine, apparently hasn’t been released onto the web yet, so I never found it.

– At least one of the stories referenced here is from the NY Times and they insist that folks have an ID and a PW in order to read their stuff. You can get these for free just by signing up. However, a friend of mine suggests the website bugmenot.com :arrow: as an alternative to having to do these annoying sign ups. Check it out. Thx Bruce S. for the tip.

Large U.S. bank collapse ahead, says ex-IMF economist

Friday, August 22nd, 2008

SINGAPORE (Reuters) – The worst of the global financial crisis is yet to come and a large U.S. bank will fail in the next few months as the world’s biggest economy hits further troubles, former IMF chief economist Kenneth Rogoff said on Tuesday.

“The U.S. is not out of the woods. I think the financial crisis is at the halfway point, perhaps. I would even go further to say ‘the worst is to come’,” he told a financial conference.

“We’re not just going to see mid-sized banks go under in the next few months, we’re going to see a whopper, we’re going to see a big one, one of the big investment banks or big banks,” said Rogoff, who is an economics professor at Harvard University and was the International Monetary Fund’s chief economist from 2001 to 2004.

“We have to see more consolidation in the financial sector before this is over,” he said, when asked for early signs of an end to the crisis.

“Probably Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — despite what U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson said — these giant mortgage guarantee agencies are not going to exist in their present form in a few years.”

More…

Most companies in US avoid federal income taxes

Tuesday, August 12th, 2008

Report says most corporations pay no federal income taxes; lawmakers blame loopholes

WASHINGTON (AP) — Unlike the rest of us, most U.S. corporations and foreign companies doing business in the United States pay no federal income tax, according to a new report from Congress.

The study by the Government Accountability Office, expected to be released Tuesday, said two-thirds of U.S. corporations paid no federal income taxes between 1998 and 2005, and about 68 percent of foreign companies doing business in the U.S. avoided corporate taxes over the same period.

Collectively, the companies reported trillions of dollars in sales, according to GAO’s estimate.

“It’s shameful that so many corporations make big profits and pay nothing to support our country,” said Sen. Byron Dorgan, D-N.D., who asked for the GAO study with Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich.

More…

– Hat tip to Cryptogon for this story 

For the good of who?

Friday, August 1st, 2008

– Not long ago, a group of 12 top airline CEOs wrote an open letter to the American public saying that energy speculation needs to be curbed because it is distorting energy prices and will, eventually, destroy the airline business.

– Now, I read that  the U.S. Senate proposal to curb speculation and increase transparency in energy markets has been blocked by Republican legislators.

– And then I saw a chart in USA Today showing the U.S. deficit or surplus since 1981 and which presidents and parties they occurred under.

– And finally I reflect on the Republican’s oft repeated mantra that the Democrats will ruin the country’s economy with their “Tax and Spend” habits and that they, the Republicans, are the ones who best husband the country’s wealth.

– Need I connect the dots for you, dear reader?

Letter to a young idealist

Sunday, July 20th, 2008

R.,

A few more thoughts along the same lines I talked about previously.

All of humanity’s history has been a series of incremental advances along multiple paths; business, social organization, military, agriculture, technological, etc. In all of this, the thought has primarily been to advance, empower and grow.

Now, for the first time in humanity’s history, we have filled the planet and have begun to hit various unyielding limits; water, food, oil, pollution, as well as limits having to do with how much impact we can have on the biosphere without causing huge shifts in the demographics of various species and even causing their extinctions.

It is clear, if humanity wants to continue to live indefinitely on this planet, that we are going to have to shift from a growth and advance strategy in all we do to one predicated on establishing a steady-state and sustainable balance with the biosphere around us.

We cannot use renewable resources faster than they can regenerate. We cannot occupy more of the planet’s surface than is consistent with allowing the rest of the planet’s biology to exist and flourish. These both imply that our population has to come down to some sustainable number and be held there. We have to come up with ways to govern ourselves that are consistent with establishing and maintaining these essential balances. Nation against nation, system against system is not compatible with long term survival. The ultimate goal and purpose of government in an enlightened world should be to secure all of our futures (we and all the rest of the planet’s biology) and maintain the balance.

We could, if we cut our population to sustainable levels and learned to live within a sustainable footprint on this planet, exist here for tens of thousands of years and maintain a decent quality of life for all those who are alive at any specific point in time. We do not have to give up comfort or technology – we just have to dial our impact on the planet back to sustainable levels and stay with in those levels.

Anything that the Gates Foundation or any other forward looking organization works on that does not include long term goals like these is likely in the big picture to just be a shuffling of our problems from one place to the other rather than a real indefinite-term planet-wide solution to how our species is going to solve the problem of learning to live here without fouling our nest for ourselves and all the other species that depend on this planet’s biosphere.