Archive for the ‘Financial melt-down’ Category

Economy enters ‘dangerous phase’

Thursday, September 22nd, 2011

The global economy has entered a “dangerous new phase” of sharply lower growth, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The organisation warned that continuing political and economic woes in the US and eurozone could force them back into recession.

The IMF says the prognosis for economies in the developed world is “weak and bumpy expansion”.

It predicts their GDP will expand “at an anaemic pace of 1.5% in 2011”.

The IMF believes global growth will shrink to 4% in 2012, from 5% last year, on factors such as “major financial turbulence in the eurozone”.

It slashed its growth projections for the 17-nation eurozone to 1.6% in 2011, down from 2% predicted in June. Next year growth will be 1.1%, down from 1.7%, it forecast.

The US – the world’s largest economy – is likely to have weak growth “for years to come”.

– More…

 

$30B wasted in Iraq, Afghanistan?

Tuesday, September 20th, 2011

– And people wonder why some of us American citizens resent our taxes?

– They collect all these taxes and gift them to the big Wall Street firms that caused the current financial mess and they spend it on wars in Iraq and Afghanistan….   And they waste HUGE amounts of it like we have an endless supply.

– But just let the average citizen get behind on his annual Federal Income Taxes and the entire might of the government comes down on that citizen.

– Well I, for one, have small patience with their desire to collect my taxes when I know that the main thing that is going to be done with them is to make the rich richer and to waste them on foreign adventures.   While in the American homeland the highways and bridges deteriorate, social programs are being cut, unemployment is growing, wages are shrinking and things are generally going to HELL.

– And they really need my taxes.   Yeah, I bet they do.

-dennis

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More than $30 billion — one in every six dollars of U.S. spending in Iraq and Afghanistan — has been wasted, according to a bipartisan commission on wartime contracting.

“Tens of billions of taxpayer dollars have been wasted through poor planning, vague and shifting requirements, inadequate competition, substandard contract management and oversight, lax accountability, weak interagency coordination, and subpar performance or outright misconduct by some contractors and federal employees,” the report’s co-authors wrote in a Washington Post editorial on Sunday.

The full findings of the bipartisan Commission on Wartime Contracting in Iraq and Afghanistan will be submitted to Congress on Wednesday. The report was written by Christopher Shays, a former Republican congressman from Connecticut, and Mark Thibault, a former deputy director of the Defense Contract Audit Agency.

Examples of wasteful projects abound: the authors note that U.S. taxpayers spent $40 million on a prison that the Iraqi government did not want, and in any case was never finished. Another $300 million was spent on a power plant in Afghanistan that requires technical expertise beyond the Afghan government’s capabilities.

The number of contractors in Afghanistan and Iraq has sometimes exceeded the number of U.S. military forces on the ground, with the ratio usually being held at roughly one to one over the years according to the report.

The report will include 15 recommendations on how to reduce waste, including the recommendation that there be an official that can serve in both the Office of Management and Budget and the National Security Council in order to coordinate the many agencies involved in contracts.

– To the original…

 

Could world social unrest come to America’s streets?

Tuesday, September 20th, 2011

– It’s not hard to imagine that it could with the ongoing deconstruction of the place.   Unemployment rising, political dialogue deteriorating, wages buying less and less, the rich getting richer, taxes being poured into the desert sands on the other side of the planet and into the pocket of the already fabulously wealthy defense contractors (make that war contractors).

– Yeah, it’s not hard to imagine.   I think it’s just a matter of time.

– dennis

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It was a long, hot spring and summer on the streets of Greece, England and Madrid, as protesters and rioters vented their fury at high unemployment, painful austerity measures and following a fatal police shooting in London.

The US, meanwhile, has been virtually free of rioting and even of widespread peaceful political protest.

This is despite some of the highest unemployment in decades, growing income inequality, dissatisfaction with the nation’s direction, frustration with its dysfunctional government and the threat of drastic cuts to social programmes.

On Friday, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg raised the spectre of social unrest amid high unemployment among young Americans.

“You have a lot of kids graduating college, can’t find jobs,” he said on a radio show.

“That’s what happened in Cairo. That’s what happened in Madrid. You don’t want those kind of riots here. The damage to a generation that can’t find jobs will go on for many many years.”

In the past century, the US has experienced its share of political tumult and unrest, from the destitute “Bonus Army” veterans of World War I who clashed with federal troops in Washington in 1932, to the urban race riots in the 1960s and the Rodney King riots in 1992.

And in interviews with the BBC, analysts, writers and historians feared the US was ripe for some sort of social upheaval, but said a lack of social organisation and a sense of despair had prevented social movements from coalescing.

“It’s amazing to me that Americans are so slow to rise collectively… not only against unemployment but against the quite identifiable forces that are responsible for it,” said sociologist Prof Todd Gitlin of the Columbia University journalism school.

“I’m not predicting that such a thing will happen, but it would not in the slightest surprise me if there were some burst of street expression, some street rage.”

– more…

 

Number of Americans in poverty hits record high

Wednesday, September 14th, 2011

The number of Americans living in poverty rose to 46.2 million last year, nearly one in six people, according to the US Census Bureau’s annual report.

The 2010 data shows the poverty rate at 15.1%, from 14.3% in 2009. The number of Americans without health insurance also rose slightly to 49.9 million.

The poverty rate was the highest since 1983, and tied with the level in 1993.

The number of Americans living below the poverty line has now risen for four years in a row.

The US definition of poverty is an annual income of $22,314 (£14,129), or less for a family of four, and $11,139 for a single person.

More poor children

The Census Bureau data also showed that poverty among black and Hispanic people was much higher than for the overall US population last year – at 27.4% and 26.6% respectively.

Outside of the poverty line, the average annual US household income fell 2.3% in 2010 to $49,445 (£31,228).

Even younger Americans were also strongly affected. Twenty-two percent of those under 18 were living under the poverty line – up from from 20.7% in 2009.

Reacting to the data, the Children’s Leadership Council, an advocacy group, said: “The rising numbers of children living in poverty is a direct result of the choices made by political leaders who put billionaires before kids. America’s children should be our top priority.”

Among regions, the South had the highest poverty rate at 16.9% and the highest percentage without health insurance, 19.1%.

– More…

 

As Verizon Demands Huge Cuts to Worker Benefits, Its Profits Soar and Its CEO Gets $18 Million in Compensation

Saturday, September 10th, 2011

Yesterday [August 8th, 2011], 45,000 Verizon employees, represented by the Communications Workers of America, went on strike following the breakdown of negotiations between union representatives and management on Saturday. The workers are battling a long list of concessions that the company is demanding of them, ranging from asking employees to contribute more to their health care plans to halting pension accruals this year.

Cutting workers benefits as a cost-saving measure is a natural part of a market economy when times are bad, but what is particularly outrageous about Verizon’s demands is that the company’s fiscal health is actually rapidly improving and its profits soaring. The company’s quarterly report released in January found that their profits nearly doubled from the same point last year. Then in April, Bloomberg reported that the company’s profits “more than tripled” after the company began offering services on Apple’s popular iPhone, with net income approaching $1.44 billion:

Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ), the second-largest US phone company, reported earnings that more than tripled as taxes decreased and the carrier attracted new customers after introducing Apple Inc. (AAPL)’s iPhone. Net income rose to $1.44 billion, or 51 cents a share, New York-based Verizon said today in a statement.

“They are outperforming the overall industry,” said financial analyst Michael Nelson of their Spring 2011 returns. Meanwhile, one person at Verizon who is not being asked to take any cuts is Ivan Seidenberg, the company’s CEO. His compensation actually rose four percent in 2010 to $18.1 million. The Communications Workers of America note that the “top five executives [at the company] received compensation of $258 million over the past four years.”

It appears that Verizon’s stockholders and executives are being treated well by the company while it demands sacrifice from its workers. “We are regular folk like most other folk out here trying to pay our mortgages, pay our bills and survive and we don’t think that is a lot to ask when the company is making billions of dollars in profits,” said one striking worker.

Update

It should be noted that Verizon isn’t just trying to skimp on worker benefits — it is also a notorious tax dodger, paying little in taxes in years past and actually netting benefits from the US taxpayer.

– More… ➡

The Lesson of the Chinese Invasion

Friday, September 2nd, 2011

– Isn’t this how America took over much of Central and South America 50 to 100 years ago?   Selling them things they didn’t have, gaining control of their markets and buying up control of their natural resources?

– And then, eventually, as the Americans moved behind the scenes, right wing dictatorships friendly to American interests were installed so that the money from the local resources could keep flowing to the US and so that any local political unrest was kept in check?

– Many left-wing students of American foreign policy over the last 2 or 3 decades will recognize these patterns.   Allende, Copper & Chile and Nicaragua’s Sandinistas and Contras are just two arch-typical stories of this genre. 

– So, the wheel of history turns and the Chinese nw are only doing what rising economic powers do; which is to seek more of the same.    And the greed of the naive and unsuspecting for lower prices in their target markets makes it all quite easy for them.   And all the money returns home to China and the standard of living of the Chinese people rise each year and their military is rapidly advancing from third-world quality to first-wolrd.

– What part of this “writing on the wall” can students of history not see?

– But amazingly, the short terms benefits always drive us like lemmings bound for their cliff jumps, to stock our stores with cheap Chinese gee-gaws.  And while the cheaply manufactured stuff pours into our countries, our cash goes the other way and day by day we deliver increasing power over us to them.

– Even here in my new country, New Zealand, the big box stores are jammed with cheap gee-gaws.   And the currently ascendant National Party (a rough analog of the US’s Republican Party) is busy passing laws to allow the country to sell off chucks of it essential infrastructure; Electric power generation, rail systems, etc.   The say that they believe not more than 10 to 20% will be sold so we will still retain control.  But, significantly, they’ve put no legal limits on how much can be sold – so they don’t offend or scare off the buyers.  (right!).

– They are saying that we need to do this to raise capital to fund other infrastructure projects that the nation needs.   As a first-order argument, that sounds, perhaps, reasonable.   But turn the crank one more round, and those new infrastructures will also need to be sold to fund the next round.  And so on.

– How sweet for the offshore buyers; an entire country building itself up very nicely and selling itself off as it does so.   Eventually, we’ll have a very nice country with lots of excellent infrastructure here.   And all owned by someone else.

– Going down this path, either here or in the US, how long will it be before the Chinese’s unlimited money is controlling who is winning elections?   And how long before they’ve installed a majority of people in the government who are deeply sympathetic to Chinese interests?   After that, it’s a single inevitable step to a nation becoming a Banana Republic to the Chinese juggernaut – much like many nations in Central and South America were when the American hegemony was at its apex.

– To my Chinese friends and readers  this is not an anti-Chinese flame I’ve written.   I fully believe that if it was Brazil, or India or any of a dozen other countries, the results would be the same.    This is all driven by human greed for power and control.  And the fact that it is the Chinese who are just now sitting in the global power spot, is just a coincidence of history and not an indictment of them as a people.

– dennis

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Many economic Nostradamuses have long predicted that the epitaph on America’s tombstone will ultimately read, “Made In China.” But casual observers probably didn’t think the funeral procession would happen this fast. In the last year, though, most have wised up. Thanks to a spate of mind-blowing headlines, we are learning that the Chinese invasion isn’t just a distant possibility — it’s happening right now.

First, in February, ABC News reported that almost every Americana-themed trinket sold in the Smithsonian Institute is made in China. Then news hit that San Francisco is importing its new bay bridge from China. Then came the New York Times dispatch about the Big Apple awarding Chinese state-subsidized firms huge taxpayer-funded contracts to “renovate the subway system, refurbish the Alexander Hamilton Bridge over the Harlem River and build a new Metro-North train platform near Yankee Stadium.”

Astounding as all of that is, it was quickly topped by news last week reminding us that the new Martin Luther King monument in Washington was designed by a Chinese government sculptor and assembled by low-wage Chinese workers.

The trend is enough to trouble any American. After all, when a memorial for a civil rights leader who deplored “starvation wages” and died supporting a sanitation union’s strike is built by non-union serfs from China, it’s a good sign there’s a big problem.

But then, what exactly is that problem?

Xenophobes will say China’s ascendance threatens America’s global cultural hegemony and promises to create a dystopia forcing us all to endure the supposed horrors of speaking Mandarin and using chopsticks.

Such misguided and bigoted demagoguery, though, distracts from the real crisis staring at us in our own mirror — a crisis not of other, but of self. Indeed, for all the fears of external assault, the Chinese invasion tells us the true problem is that America is no longer willing or able to invest in its own future.

– To read more…

 

The U.S. Budget simplified…

Wednesday, August 24th, 2011

– I don’t know if this is really accurate – but I enjoyed it.

– dennis

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The U.S. Congress sets a federal budget every year in the trillions of dollars.  Few people know how much money that is so here is a breakdown of federal spending in simple terms.

 Let’s put the 2011 federal budget into perspective:

    U.S. Income:                   $  2,170,000,000,000

    Federal budget:            $  3,820,000,000,000

    New debt:                         $  1,650,000,000,000

    National debt:              $14,271,000,000,000

    Recent budget cut:   $38,500,000,000 (about 1 percent of the budget)

 It helps to think about these numbers in terms that we can understand.  

Therefore, let’s remove eight zeros from these numbers and pretend this is the household budget for the “Jones” family:

    Total annual income for the Jones family:         $ 21,700

    Amount of money the Jones family spent:         $ 38,200 

    Amount of new debt added to the credit card: $ 16,500 

    Outstanding balance on the credit card:              $142,710

    Amount cut from the budget:                                      $ 385

Yep, that about sums it up.

– research thanks to Van

Day of truth for the markets

Sunday, August 7th, 2011

– I suppose it is simply ego, but it gives me a perverse pleasure to read things I’ve been thinking and saying for years when I read them in publications like the one below.

“…it is becoming clear that to create jobs and rising wages and living standards, the United States will have to resume producing tradable goods and providing tradable services that will reduce its chronic trade deficits.”

– Exactly.

– Dennis

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Today is the day the truth of the global economy has finally come out, and the markets are facing up to it with terror and trembling.

At first, a better than expected U.S. jobs report appeared to be reversing some of the week’s negative market sentiment as the Dow headed north, but that quickly proved to be just a head fake. In the first place, the numbers were only good by comparison with the really horrible ones of last week, and in the second place, the jobs numbers don’t tell you as much about the U.S. economy as the numbers for the long-term unemployed and for the proportion of the working age work force that is actually working. Those numbers are among the worst for the United States since the 1930s.

Perhaps even more important than that has been the dawning recognition that the agonizing last-minute agreement to raise the U.S. debt limit has not resolved and may actually have added to U.S. economic woes. The rush of investors into yen, Swiss francs, Canadian dollars, Israelis shekels (anything but U.S. dollars) over the past two days has been a dramatic signal that investors see the U.S. outlook as bleak and that no one believes U.S. leaders have a clue about how to run the economy or where they want America to go more generally. The debt limit debate demonstrated the rot of government dysfunction to be far more advanced that any had imagined.

Equally dysfunctional have been the leaders of the European Union whose serial announcements of one inadequate bailout agreement after another have only served to exacerbate rather than resolve doubts about the future of the euro and, indeed, of the EU itself.

A third element has been the recognition that Japan is unlikely to become a driver of growth and that a world burdened by slow growth in Japan, the EU, and the United States is unlikely to be a very dynamic place, no matter how rapid the growth in China and India. There may have been some degree of decoupling over the past decade, but not that much.

All of this is forcing a facing of realities. For nearly thirty years, the conventional story has been that the U.S. economy is flexible, dynamic, moving from strength to strength in high-tech and sophisticated global services. But now the truth is dawning that two decades of first the dot.com bubble and then the real estate and financial bubbles were simply a Potemkin village masking the chronic erosion of U.S. industrial and technological leadership and of the standard of living of the middle class. It is now becoming clear that the United States is not going to recover anytime soon and that it is in for a long battle to revitalize its restore its former economic dynamism.

In particular, it is becoming clear that to create jobs and rising wages and living standards, the United States will have to resume producing tradable goods and providing tradable services that will reduce its chronic trade deficits. This, of course, will mean a weaker dollar and a decline of U.S. consumption as a percent of the world’s total consumption. And, this, in turn will mean a wrenching readjustment of the global supply chain and of the long accepted patterns of globalization.

By the same token, Europe has reached a crossroads. If the euro and perhaps the EU as well are to survive, there must be a truly European finance system as well as a central bank. It will no longer work to have the Germans running trade surpluses while everyone else runs trade deficits in the absence of an effective system of funds transfers from surplus to deficit areas. Europe must become truly Europe, or no Europe at all.

It seems that after decades of undervaluing its currency to foster its export-led growth strategy, Japan will now finally be forced to reorient its economy toward domestic consumption by the tightening noose of the ever strengthening yen. Truly, it has been said that “those who live by the sword will die by the sword.”

This is a lesson that China might do well to learn now rather than much later as in the case of Japan.

– To the original…

America in Decline

Friday, August 5th, 2011

This is a repost of the beginning of a piece by Noam Chomsky that appeared today on truthout.

– An excellent piece – especially given that the U.S. lost its AAA credit rating today and the world’s stock markets are in tummult and falling for the last two days.

– I strongly encourage my readers to read it.

– dennis

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Noam Chomsky

Noam Chomsky

“It is a common theme” that the United States, which “only a few years ago was hailed to stride the world as a colossus with unparalleled power and unmatched appeal is in decline, ominously facing the prospect of its final decay,” Giacomo Chiozza writes in the current Political Science Quarterly.

The theme is indeed widely believed. And with some reason, though a number of qualifications are in order. To start with, the decline has proceeded since the high point of U.S. power after World War II, and the remarkable triumphalism of the post-Gulf War ’90s was mostly self-delusion.

Another common theme, at least among those who are not willfully blind, is that American decline is in no small measure self-inflicted. The comic opera in Washington this summer, which disgusts the country and bewilders the world, may have no analogue in the annals of parliamentary democracy.

The spectacle is even coming to frighten the sponsors of the charade. Corporate power is now concerned that the extremists they helped put in office may in fact bring down the edifice on which their own wealth and privilege relies, the powerful nanny state that caters to their interests.

Corporate power’s ascendancy over politics and society – by now mostly financial – has reached the point that both political organizations, which at this stage barely resemble traditional parties, are far to the right of the population on the major issues under debate.

For the public, the primary domestic concern is unemployment. Under current circumstances, that crisis can be overcome only by a significant government stimulus, well beyond the recent one, which barely matched decline in state and local spending – though even that limited initiative probably saved millions of jobs.

For financial institutions the primary concern is the deficit. Therefore, only the deficit is under discussion. A large majority of the population favor addressing the deficit by taxing the very rich (72 percent, 27 percent opposed), reports a Washington Post-ABC News poll. Cutting health programs is opposed by overwhelming majorities (69 percent Medicaid, 78 percent Medicare). The likely outcome is therefore the opposite.

The Program on International Policy Attitudes surveyed how the public would eliminate the deficit. PIPA director Steven Kull writes, “Clearly both the administration and the Republican-led House (of Representatives) are out of step with the public’s values and priorities in regard to the budget.”

The survey illustrates the deep divide: “The biggest difference in spending is that the public favored deep cuts in defense spending, while the administration and the House propose modest increases. The public also favored more spending on job training, education and pollution control than did either the administration or the House.”

– More…

Innovation Depends on a Robust Manufacturing Sector

Friday, July 29th, 2011

– The world’s largest economy is killing itself and its future because it cannot see that only contries that retain their manufacturing at home can remain wealth generators.

– dennis

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When too many companies outsource their manufacturing, the industrial ecosystem can suffer long-term consequences.

It’s called moving up the economic value chain: U.S. companies are increasingly conceiving and creating products that are built elsewhere. Prosaic manufacturing, with its razor-thin profit margins and ruthless competition, has been outsourced to Asia. But researchers who study innovation are starting to see a worrisome after-effect: the ability to innovate sometimes disappears with the manufacturing.

Harvard Business School professors David Pisano and Willy Shih set many businesspeople to rethinking whether manufacturing matters with a 2009 Harvard Business Review article titled “Restoring American Competitiveness.” Besides lamenting that outsourcing manufacturing reduces U.S. job prospects and worsens the trade imbalance, the academics argued that economies where manufacturing skills vanish are less likely to harbor future innovation. Because American companies stopped making LCD displays, for example, there was no domestic expertise to build screens for Amazon’s Kindle reader, even though its crucial technology was developed in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Because expertise in thin-film deposition has moved to Asia with most semiconductor production, Chinese companies have a leg up in solar panel manufacturing.

– More…