Archive for the ‘Climate Change’ Category

National Security and the Threat of Climate Change

Monday, June 4th, 2007

– There are people of every flavor with strong opinions about Global Climate Change out there. Just Googling the subject will expose you to the full range of supporters and deniers of the idea that mankind’s activities are changing the global climate.

– Amid all this controversy, I’ve chosen to align my beliefs with what the majority of the world’s scientists believe. And that is that humanity’s activities are affecting global climate and the changes are likely to be ugly (see IPCC Reports ➡).

– But there are other ways to get at the truth through all the rhetoric and hand waving and that is to ask yourself who is it that has a deep and vested interest in discovering the truth rather than pandering to political or monetary forces. Well, the insurance industry is one and military think tanks are another. Neither of these entities can afford to be wrong because the bottom line of their very survival is directly linked to their ability to discern the future accurately.

– Here’s a report from the CNA Corporation, a military think tank based out of Alexandria, Virginia. This is not the first time I’ve seen assessments of the likely impact of global climate change on national security matters and it won’t be the last, I’m sure.

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During our decades of experience in the U.S. military, we have addressed many national security challenges, from containment and deterrence of the Soviet nuclear threat during the Cold War to terrorism and extremism in recent years.

Global climate change presents a new and very different type of national
security challenge.

Over many months and meetings, we met with some of the world’s leading climate scientists, business leaders, and others studying climate change. We viewed their work through the lens of our military experience as warfighters, planners, and leaders. Our discussions have been lively, informative, and very sobering.

Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are greater now than at any time in the past 650,000 years, and average global temperature has continued a steady rise. This rise presents the prospect of significant climate change, and while uncertainty exists and debate continues regarding the science and future extent of projected climate changes, the trends are clear.

The nature and pace of climate changes being observed today and the consequences projected by the consensus scientific opinion are grave and pose equally grave implications for our national security. Moving beyond the arguments of cause and effect, it is important that the U.S. military begin planning to address these potentially devastating effects. The consequences of climate change can affect the organization, training, equipping, and planning of the military services. The U.S. military has a clear obligation to determine the potential impacts of climate change on its ability to execute its missions in support of national security objectives.

Climate change can act as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world, and it presents significant national security challenges for the United States. Accordingly, it is appropriate to start now to help mitigate the severity of some of these emergent challenges. The decision to act should be made soon in order to plan prudently for the nation’s security. The increasing risks from climate change should be addressed now because they will almost certainly get worse if we delay.

To the full report:

To a number of news reports about this report:

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– All of these stories were drawn from the first page of a Google search for ‘National Security and the Threat of Climate Change‘. There’s a TON of stuff out there if you go looking.

– Thx to Michael D. for the lead to this story.

Mt Cook glaciers ‘permanently damaged’ by climate change

Friday, May 4th, 2007

Mt. Cook & Glaciers - New Zealand

New Zealand’s famed Mount Cook glaciers are so affected by a warming climate they will never return to their former splendour, a New Zealand glaciologist has said.

Glaciologist Dr Trevor Chinn, who has been studying the Mount Cook structures since the 1960s, said some had already shrunk up to five kilometres, about 20 per cent, and it was too late for any of them to completely recover.

He said that while some of the world’s glaciers would grow back if the climate cooled to its pre-global warming levels, those fronting lakes, like some at Mount Cook, would not.

“You can’t get a re-advance that will come back if you apply the previous climate … a re-advance across a lake is difficult because the ice breaks off the front of the glacier and floats away,” Chinn said.

He said local warming since the 1890s had started the trend, but man-made climate change in recent decades had exacerbated the effect.

“They will never completely go. For that to happen the climate has to warm enough for the snowline to rise clean above the mountains, but they will retreat quite a bit more,” he said.

More…

US generals urge climate action

Sunday, April 15th, 2007

Former US military leaders have called on the Bush administration to make major cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.

In a report, they say global warming poses a serious threat to national security, as the US could be drawn into wars over water and other conflicts.

They appear to criticise President George W Bush’s refusal to join an international treaty to cut emissions.

Among the 11 authors are ex-Army chief of staff Gordon Sullivan and Mr Bush’s ex-Mid-East peace envoy Anthony Zinni.

The report says the US “must become a more constructive partner” with other nations to fight global warming and deal with its consequences.

It warns that over the next 30 to 40 years, there will be conflicts over water resources, as well as increased instability resulting from rising sea levels and global warming-related refugees.

“The chaos that results can be an incubator of civil strife, genocide and the growth of terrorism,” the 35-page report predicts.

More…

also

the report, itself, will be released here on April 16th.

New Zealand and Climate Change

Thursday, April 12th, 2007

– As many of you doubtless know, I have a sweet spot in my heart for New Zealand so I follow their news quite closely. Even though they are off at the ends of the Earth, they are not immune to the coming climate changes. Witness this small collection of articles.

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– Ratepayers face big bills to fight climate change

– Climate change report: Act now, or face flood and fire

– NZ faces ‘climate refugees’ as seas rise

– Climate change set to erode house values

– Meltdown for Franz Josef Glacier

U.S. Southwest Drought Could Be Start of New Dust Bowl

Monday, April 9th, 2007

The unprecedented drought that has gripped the southwestern United States isn’t almost over, researchers say, it may have only just begun.

That’s the consensus of all but 1 of the 19 climate models used as the basis for this week’s upcoming report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), according to a new analysis.

Richard Seager, a senior research scientist with the Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, and co-authors report their findings today in the online advance version of the journal Science.

Based on the climate models, the U.S. Southwest and parts of northern Mexico could become as arid as the North American Dust Bowl conditions of the 1930s, the study authors report.

“If these models are correct, the levels of aridity of the recent multiyear drought [will] become the new climatology of the American Southwest,” the team writes.

More…

Climate Change: Study Maps Those At Greatest Risk From Cyclones And Rising Seas

Monday, April 9th, 2007

“Climate change is not a natural disaster but has largely been caused by wealthy countries emitting greenhouse gases during their industrialisation,” says McGranahan. “Yet the poorest countries that have contributed least to the problem are most vulnerable to its effects. It is therefore incumbent on rich nations to help poorer ones to adapt to the changes ahead.”

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Science Daily  The first global study to identify populations at greatest risk from rising sea levels and more intense cyclones linked to climate change will be published next month in the peer-reviewed journal Environment and Urbanization.

The research shows that 634 million people one tenth of the global population live in coastal areas that lie within just ten metres above sea level.

It calls for action to limit the effects of climate change, to help people migrate away from risk and to modify urban settlements to reduce their vulnerability. But it warns that this will require enforceable regulations and economic incentives, both of which depend on political will, funding and human capital.

Key findings of the study by Gordon McGranahan of the International Institute for Environment and Development (UK) and his colleagues, Deborah Balk and Bridget Anderson, at the City University of New York and Columbia University, are that:

  • Nearly two-thirds of urban settlements with more than 5 million inhabitants are at least partially in the 0-10 metre zone.
  • On average, 14 percent of people in the least developed countries live in the zone (compared to 10 percent in OECD countries).
  • 21 percent of the urban populations of least developed nations are in the zone (11 percent in OECD countries).
  • About 75% of people in the zone are in Asia. 21 nations have more than half of their population in the zone (16 are small island states).
  • Poor countries and poor communities within them are most at risk.

More…

Greenhouse Gas Effect Consistent Over 420 Million Years

Monday, April 9th, 2007

Science Daily New calculations show that sensitivity of Earth’s climate to changes in the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO2) has been consistent for the last 420 million years, according to an article in Nature by geologists at Yale and Wesleyan Universities.

A popular predictor of future climate sensitivity is the change in global temperature produced by each doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere. This study confirms that in the Earth’s past 420 million years, each doubling of atmospheric CO2 translates to an average global temperature increase of about 3° Celsius, or 5° Fahrenheit.

More…

Latest report from the IPCC folks

Saturday, April 7th, 2007

If you follow discussions on Global Climate Change, you’d have to be living under a rock to not know that the IPCC released its latest sub-report on Friday, April 6th.

There are three sub-reports scheduled this year and, jointly, they make up the 4th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report.

The first sub-report this year concluded with 90% certainty that human activities are causing the rise in global atmospheric temperatures. This 2nd sub-report of the year focuses on the consequences of the warming that’s in progress – and the news is not good.

Bloggers and news organizations have been all over this story for a week working on early leaked documents, final draft documents and final release documents. It’s been a free-for-all and I’m not sure that I can add a lot to the conversation so I’m just going to link to some of the more interesting on-line articles I’ve seen on this topic. Below are links to various stories I’ve found on the web about this latest IPCC report along with a brief note about each link.

– This is a brief history of the IPCC reports in general. It discusses their purpose and the various versions that have been released to date.

– This is a summary in Scientific American about the most recent sub-report.

– This is an opinion piece in the New York Times discussing whether or not grim news like this might finally serve to break President Bush out of his long-standing denial of the problem. (See note at the bottom about the NY Times)

– This is the final draft as the scientists wanted it. But, at the eleventh hour, several governments lobbied to water certain sections down to better align things with their ‘political’ views of reality.

– This is another piece from this NY Times – this time from their environmental section discussing the findings of the sub-report in general. (See note at the bottom about the NY Times)

– This piece is, itself, an aggregation of articles from other news sources. This is from Time Magazine’s Blog called The Ag.

– This is a piece from the Washington Post discussing how the IPCC sub-report was watered down by several governments over the objections of the scientists at the last moment.

– This is another piece from the environmental section of the New York Times. It discusses the consequences of Global Warming as outlined in the IPCC sub-report. (See note at the bottom about the NY Times)

– This is from National Geographic and it explores the consequences of the consequences described by the IPCC. I.e., that these changes may in turn spur extinctions, shortages and conflicts world wide.

– This article from CNN discusses the tension and anger that were palpable in the last hours, before the final version of this sub-report was issued, between the scientists and the governments lobbying to water the report down.

– This is a summary of the IPCC Summary for Policy Makers – Part I, II, & III.

That’s 11 articles. I could have gone on and gathered up another dozen without breaking a sweat. This story’s big and everyone is reporting on it, Blogging on it, analyzing it and rendering opinions about it. I didn’t go to see what the climate skeptics are saying but I’m sure they are churning out vast quantities of confusion and disinformation to deflect the sharp edges of this report.

Frankly, it amazes me that we still need to try and convince people that something is going on with global climate change. And, what amazes me more, is that humanity’s response to this problem has been so pitifully inadequate to date. And now President Bush is saying he thinks we’re doing enough at the same time other folks are saying that we’re way past being able to stop these changes, and now we just need to figure out the best way to cope with the unavoidable.

We’re in some serious doo-doo here, folks. If humanity survives this mess, then it would be interesting to read the history books two hundred years on (if we could be here) and read their opinions about the self-destructive stupidity of our age.

Note that there have been four IPPC reports since the series of reports were begun by the UN in 1990. The current, or fourth, IPCC report is broken into three parts which will be issued at different times over this year. I’ve taken to calling these three reports ‘sub-reports‘ to differ them from their aggregate form. After all, if we call the aggregates and the pieces all ‘reports’, it can get a bit confusing.

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– Some of these articles are from the NY Times and they insist that folks have an ID and a PW in order to read their stuff. You can get these for free just by signing up. However, recently, a friend of mine suggested the website bugmenot.com :arrow: as an alternative to having to do these annoying sign ups. Check it out. Thx Bruce S. for the tip.

Millions face drought in SW China

Thursday, April 5th, 2007

More than 5.5 million people are short of drinking water because of an acute drought in south-western China, state media reports.

Low rainfall in the province of Sichuan has forced officials to deliver clean water to the worst-hit areas.

Six million livestock and half a million hectares of land are affected, Sichuan’s governor said.

Many areas of China are regularly hit by water shortages or droughts, with some blaming climate change.

Most of Sichuan received no major rain in February, and no significant rain predicted before the end of March.

More…

Poor Nations to Bear Brunt as World Warms

Wednesday, April 4th, 2007

The world’s richest countries, which have contributed by far the most to the atmospheric changes linked to global warming, are already spending billions of dollars to limit their own risks from its worst consequences, like drought and rising seas.

But despite longstanding treaty commitments to help poor countries deal with warming, these industrial powers are spending just tens of millions of dollars on ways to limit climate and coastal hazards in the world’s most vulnerable regions – most of them close to the equator and overwhelmingly poor.

Next Friday, a new report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a United Nations body that since 1990 has been assessing global warming, will underline this growing climate divide, according to scientists involved in writing it – with wealthy nations far from the equator not only experiencing fewer effects but also better able to withstand them.

Two-thirds of the atmospheric buildup of carbon dioxide, a heat-trapping greenhouse gas that can persist in the air for centuries, has come in nearly equal proportions from the United States and Western European countries. Those and other wealthy nations are investing in windmill-powered plants that turn seawater to drinking water, in flood barriers and floatable homes, and in grains and soybeans genetically altered to flourish even in a drought.

In contrast, Africa accounts for less than 3 percent of the global emissions of carbon dioxide from fuel burning since 1900, yet its 840 million people face some of the biggest risks from drought and disrupted water supplies, according to new scientific assessments. As the oceans swell with water from melting ice sheets, it is the crowded river deltas in southern Asia and Egypt, along with small island nations, that are most at risk.

Like the sinking of the Titanic, catastrophes are not democratic“, said Henry I. Miller, a fellow with the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. “A much higher fraction of passengers from the cheaper decks were lost. We’ll see the same phenomenon with global warming.“

More…

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– research thanks to John P. and Lisa G., both of whom forwarded a link to this story to me.

– This article is from the NY Times and they insist that folks have an ID and a PW in order to read their stuff. You can get these for free just by signing up. However, recently, a friend of mine suggested the website bugmenot.com :arrow: as an alternative to having to do these annoying sign ups. Check it out. Thx Bruce S. for the tip.