Archive for the ‘Climate Change’ Category

Climate change: it’s coming our way …

Sunday, January 21st, 2007

Global warming will have a far more destructive and earlier impact than previously estimated.

A draft of the most authoritative report yet produced on climate change, the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, shows the frequency of devastating storms will increase dramatically.

Sea levels will rise over the century by about half a metre; snow will disappear from all but the highest mountains; deserts will spread; oceans will become acidic, leading to the destruction of coral reefs and atolls; and deadly heatwaves will become more prevalent.

The impact will be catastrophic, forcing hundreds of millions to flee their homelands, particularly in tropical, low-lying areas, while creating waves of immigrants whose movements will strain the economies of even the most affluent countries.

The really chilling thing about the report is that it is the work of several thousand climate experts with widely differing views on how greenhouse gases will have their effect. Some think they will have a major impact, others a lesser. Each paragraph was therefore argued over and scrutinised intensely. Only points that were considered indisputable survived.

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Huge storms sweep northern Europe

Friday, January 19th, 2007

Global Warming and Global Climate Change. People expect to be able to go and look at their thermometers and see a gradual creeping up of the indicator.  Well, I don’t think it is going to happen so neatly as that. 

– Weather events are systems and systems are a mix of stability and chaos.  The more complex the system, the the harder it is to untangle all the factors that feed into its states.  Weather is a very complex system and as we continue to pump more and more CO2 and Methane into the atmosphere, I expects the system will grow unstable at its current resting point and as it seeks toward a new equilibrium, it will exhibit instability. 

– Weather events will exhibit wilder and wilder swings as the system seeks to incorporate the greenhouse gases we’re adding. And  I believe this instability will continue so long as we keep changing the composition of the atmosphere.  And, beneath the surface fluctuations, the average temperatures will, indeed, creep up in most places.

– Here in New Zealand this summer, it has been unusually cool.   In fact, Wellington, the capital, experienced the coldest December on record in 2006.  In the Pacific Northwest of the US, where I normally live, they’ve had an absolutely dismal winter this year.  Record floods, huge wind storms and snow on the ground for  a week or more in an area that often sees winters without any snow.  The US’s mid-west is in the vise of a huge deep-freeze and a month or so back, New York City was having record-breaking tee-shirt weather one day and snow storms the very next day. Now we’re reading about a huge storm pounding Northern Europe. 

– Yes, I know weather is variable and we’ve seen all of this before.  It is the larger patterns I’m referring to here – the trends emerging from the noise.  Keep watching.

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At least 25 people have been killed as violent storms lashed northern Europe, causing travel chaos across the region.

Britain was the worst hit with nine people killed as rain and gusts of up to 99mph (159km/h) swept the country.

Hurricane-force winds battering Germany have claimed at least seven lives. The other deaths were reported in France, the Czech Republic and the Netherlands.

The severe weather has forced hundreds of flight, rail and ferry cancellations and prompted road and school closures.

Meteorologists at London’s Met Office said the winds reached “severe gale force” as they crossed Britain and were the highest recorded since January 1990.

They warned the weather system would intensify as it moved east across the continent – with Denmark, the Netherlands and Germany expected to be worst hit overnight.

Winds of almost 105mph (170km/h) were recorded late on Thursday in Germany, prompting the national rail company to suspend all its services, leaving passengers stranded.

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NOAA Reports 2006 Warmest Year On Record For U.S.

Wednesday, January 10th, 2007

Science Daily The 2006 average annual temperature for the contiguous U.S. was the warmest on record and nearly identical to the record set in 1998, according to scientists at the NOAA National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. Seven months in 2006 were much warmer than average, including December, which ended as the fourth warmest December since records began in 1895.

Based on preliminary data, the 2006 annual average temperature was 55 degrees F—2.2 degrees F (1.2 degrees C) above the 20th Century mean and 0.07 degrees F (0.04 degrees C) warmer than 1998. NOAA originally estimated in mid-December that the 2006 annual average temperature for the contiguous United States would likely be 2 degrees F (1.1 degrees C) above the 20th Century mean, which would have made 2006 the third warmest year on record, slightly cooler than 1998 and 1934, according to preliminary data. Further analysis of annual temperatures and an unusually warm December caused the change in records.

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Scientists’ Report Documents ExxonMobil’s Tobacco-like Disinformation Campaign on Global Warming Science

Saturday, January 6th, 2007

– Someday, when the damage of Global Warming is full upon us, people will be asking, “How did this happen?” and “Why weren’t we told?” And, at least some of the answers are going to lead back to these folks who, for the sake of their personal profits, helped to sell all of our futures down the river. We can only hope they get their just rewards.

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Oil Company Spent Nearly $16 Million to Fund Skeptic Groups, Create Confusion

WASHINGTON, DC, Jan. A new report from the Union of Concerned Scientists offers the most comprehensive documentation to date of how ExxonMobil has adopted the tobacco industry’s disinformation tactics, as well as some of the same organizations and personnel, to cloud the scientific understanding of climate change and delay action on the issue. According to the report, ExxonMobil has funneled nearly $16 million between 1998 and 2005 to a network of 43 advocacy organizations that seek to confuse the public on global warming science.

ExxonMobil has manufactured uncertainty about the human causes of global warming just as tobacco companies denied their product caused lung cancer,” said Alden Meyer, the Union of Concerned Scientists’ Director of Strategy & Policy. “A modest but effective investment has allowed the oil giant to fuel doubt about global warming to delay government action just as Big Tobacco did for over 40 years.”

Smoke, Mirrors & Hot Air: How ExxonMobil Uses Big Tobacco’s Tactics to “Manufacture Uncertainty” on Climate Change details how the oil company, like the tobacco industry in previous decades, has

  • raised doubts about even the most indisputable scientific evidence
  • funded an array of front organizations to create the appearance of a broad platform for a tight-knit group of vocal climate change contrarians who misrepresent peer-reviewed scientific findings
  • attempted to portray its opposition to action as a positive quest for “sound science” rather than business self-interest
  • used its access to the Bush administration to block federal policies and shape government communications on global warming

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Ancient ice shelf breaks free from Canadian Arctic

Friday, December 29th, 2006

TORONTO, Ontario (AP) — A giant ice shelf the size of 11,000 football fields has snapped free from Canada’s Arctic, scientists said.

The mass of ice broke clear 16 months ago from the coast of Ellesmere Island, about 800 kilometers (497 miles) south of the North Pole, but no one was present to see it in Canada’s remote north.

Scientists using satellite images later noticed that it became a newly formed ice island in just an hour and left a trail of icy boulders floating in its wake. (Watch the satellite images that clued in ice watchers)

Warwick Vincent of Laval University, who studies Arctic conditions, traveled to the newly formed ice island and could not believe what he saw.

“This is a dramatic and disturbing event. It shows that we are losing remarkable features of the Canadian North that have been in place for many thousands of years. We are crossing climate thresholds, and these may signal the onset of accelerated change ahead,” Vincent said Thursday.

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DIRE WARNINGS FROM CHINA’S FIRST CLIMATE CHANGE REPORT

Thursday, December 28th, 2006

– Someone once commented that few people will just lie down and starve quietly.China’s ability to feed itself is near an edge and it shows no signs of reigning in the population’s dreams of western style affluence.  Its water tables are falling and temperatures are rising. When the food does run short, it will uncork its vast coffers of trade-surplus money and wade into the international food markets to buy food to stave off social instability at home and this, in turn, will drive food prices beyond the reach of many in marginal nations and global stability will be well on its way down the slippery slope.

– China is a coming global train wreck, powering into the dead-end alley of more growth and more consumption with the pedal to the metal and this report is merely a small note someone tossed off the train as it passed.

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BEIJING (AFP) Temperatures in China will rise significantly in coming decades and water shortages will worsen, state media has reported, citing the government’s first national assessment of global climate change.

Greenhouse gases released due to human activity are leading to ever more serious problems in terms of climate change,” the Ministry of Science and Technology said in a statement.

Global climate change has an impact on the nation’s ability to develop further,” said the ministry, one of 12 government departments that prepared the report.

In just over a decade, global warming will start to be felt in the world’s most populous country, and it will get warmer yet over the next two or three generations.

Compared with 2000, the average temperatures will increase by between 1.3 and 2.1 degrees Celsius by 2020, the China News Service reported, citing the assessment.

By the middle of the century, the annual average temperature in China will rise by as much as 3.3 degrees Celsius (more than five degrees Fahrenheit), and by 2100 it could soar by as much as six degrees Celsius, according to the news service.

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Warmer Atlantic, Climate Change Presage More, and Worse, Western Wildfires

Thursday, December 28th, 2006

Historical record suggests the American West is “primed” for climate change-inspired conflagrations.

Between 1650 and 1749, fires raged across western North America from what is now British Columbia down into northern Mexico. In contrast, the following century saw scattered, sporadic wildfires. By combining tree-ring records stretching back 450 years as well as fire-scar data from more than 4,700 burned trees, scientists have now created an extended log of the climate in the western U.S. and its attendant wildfires. And this record has revealed that temperature shifts in the waters of the northern Atlantic help determine the scale and intensity of western wildfires.

Forest ecologist Thomas Swetnam of the University of Arizona and a team of international colleagues collected tree-ring and fire-scar data from 241 logging sites across western North America. The scars revealed the dates of at least 33,975 individual fires stretching back to 1550. “We got most of our fire-scar samples from dead trees, stumps and logs. They’re cookies,” or cross sections, Swetnam explains. “A single tree might have 10 or even 20 different scars on it.”

The researchers compared this long fire record with weather patterns: the well-known El Nino and La Nina cycles that occur every two to seven years, as well as longer cycles called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). “Fire activity correlated with–as we expect–drought, but also with these interesting oscillations in the Pacific and Atlantic,” Swetnam notes. “The North Atlantic, and warming temperatures there, have apparently had some importance in drought occurrence and fire activity.”

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Polar bears could be listed as ‘endangered’

Wednesday, December 27th, 2006

WASHINGTON: US President George W Bush’s administration is proposing to list the polar bear as an endangered species because of warming temperatures in the animal’s habitat, The Washington Post has reported.

The proposal, described by an Interior Department official who spoke on condition of anonymity, marks the first time the administration has identified climate change as the driving force behind the potential demise of a species, the paper said.

“We’ve reviewed all the available data that leads us to believe the sea ice the polar bear depends on has been receding,” the Interior official told the paper.

“Obviously, the sea ice is melting because the temperatures are warmer.”

The official added that US Fish and Wildlife Service officials have concluded that polar bears could be endangered within 45 years, the report said.

A spokesman for the Interior Department was not immediately available for comment.

The Bush administration has consistently rejected scientific thesis that human activity contributes to global warming and has resisted capping greenhouse gas emissions as bad for business and US workers.

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Disappearing world: Global warming claims tropical island

Monday, December 25th, 2006

For the first time, an inhabited island has disappeared beneath rising seas.

Rising seas, caused by global warming, have for the first time washed an inhabited island off the face of the Earth. The obliteration of Lohachara island, in India’s part of the Sundarbans where the Ganges and the Brahmaputra rivers empty into the Bay of Bengal, marks the moment when one of the most apocalyptic predictions of environmentalists and climate scientists has started coming true.

As the seas continue to swell, they will swallow whole island nations, from the Maldives to the Marshall Islands, inundate vast areas of countries from Bangladesh to Egypt, and submerge parts of scores of coastal cities.

Eight years ago, as exclusively reported in The Independent on Sunday, the first uninhabited islands – in the Pacific atoll nation of Kiribati – vanished beneath the waves. The people of low-lying islands in Vanuatu, also in the Pacific, have been evacuated as a precaution, but the land still juts above the sea. The disappearance of Lohachara, once home to 10,000 people, is unprecedented.

It has been officially recorded in a six-year study of the Sunderbans by researchers at Calcutta’s Jadavpur University. So remote is the island that the researchers first learned of its submergence, and that of an uninhabited neighbouring island, Suparibhanga, when they saw they had vanished from satellite pictures.

Two-thirds of nearby populated island Ghoramara has also been permanently inundated. Dr Sugata Hazra, director of the university’s School of Oceanographic Studies, says “it is only a matter of some years” before it is swallowed up too. Dr Hazra says there are now a dozen “vanishing islands” in India’s part of the delta. The area’s 400 tigers are also in danger.

Until now the Carteret Islands off Papua New Guinea were expected to be the first populated ones to disappear, in about eight years’ time, but Lohachara has beaten them to the dubious distinction.

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Australia ponders climate future

Monday, December 25th, 2006

Parts of Australia are in the grip of the worst drought in memory.

Rainfall in many eastern and southern regions has been at near record lows. On top of that, the weather has been exceptionally warm.

The parched conditions have sparked an emotional debate about global warming.

Conservationists insist the “big dry” is almost certainly the result of climate change and warn that Australia is on the brink of environmental disaster.

Other experts believe such hysteria is wildly misplaced and that the country shouldn’t panic.

‘A war-like scenario’

The drought in Australia has lasted for more than five years.

The worry for some is that this could be the start of a protracted period of low rainfall that could go on for decades.

“The really scary thing is last time we had a drought of this intensity that lasted about five years – it lasted for about 50 years,” cautioned Professor Andy Pitman from Macquarie University in Sydney.

“The politicians truly believe this is a five-year or six-year drought that will break sometime in 2007 or 2008. But it might not break until 2050 and we aren’t thinking in those terms at this stage,” Professor Pitman told the BBC.

Global warming, the drought and the future of dwindling water supplies will undoubtedly dominate talk at barbeques and dinner parties this festive season in Australia.

“We’re in a state of emergency,” said Cate Faehrmann from the Nature Conservation Council of New South Wales. “We need to treat this as a war-like scenario. The people are really worried that we are going to run out of water.”

She added: “I can imagine Australia being a desert in a few decades’ time in some of these agricultural areas. The soil is blowing away, the rivers are drying up.

“I think there will be plots of land abandoned and perhaps whole agricultural practices abandoned.”

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