Archive for the ‘The Perfect Storm’ Category

Jump in Chinese defence spending

Sunday, March 4th, 2007

– I’ve written before that the coming shortages in oil and gas supplies are going to create greater competition for these ever scarcer resources. This competition may begin politely but I fear it will not end that way. Nations are not likely to take the end of their increasing wealth and power lightly. Japan, for example, imports over 90% of all the oil and gas it uses. Without it, it will be driven back into a medieval economy. India and China are not likely to go quietly into that dark night of preindustrialization either. And, dear readers, why do you think the US is in Iraq?

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China’s military budget will increase by 17.8% in 2007, the spokesman for the National People’s Congress has said.

Jiang Enzhu said that military spending next year would amount to 350.92bn yuan, an increase of 52.99bn yuan.

The rise was announced the day before Chinese lawmakers were due start their annual parliamentary session.

Mr Jiang said the money would be used to increase wages for military personnel and to upgrade weapons, but gave no further details.

China says its military budget rose by 14.7% last year to $36.6bn (£18.6bn), but the US and other observers believe the actual figure may be two or three times that amount.

Correspondents say China is seeking to modernise its huge but often poorly-equipped military forces by building or purchasing new ships, missiles and fighter planes.

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Women in power

Sunday, March 4th, 2007

– The oppression of women’s human rights, of their freedom to make their own reproductive decisions and of their education all lead to problems. One of these problems is overpopulation which drives many of the other elements of the Perfect Storm Hypothesis. So, it is encouraging to see that women are making gains in some of the world’s nations. This article is from New Zealand, which was the first nation to give women the vote.

– In 1952, the UN opened The Convention for the Political Rights of Women for signatures by its member nations. It took the US until 8 Apr 1976 to join this treaty by accession.

– In 1980, a more comprehensive treaty called The Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women was opened for signatures and ratification by the UN member states. To date, the United States is the only industrial nation which has not signed ths treaty.

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The proportion of female politicians around the world has increased with countries such as New Zealand leading the way.

New Zealand’s Parliament is 33.05 per cent female (40 out of 121 MPs) compared with a global figure of 17 per cent – up nearly 6 percentage points in the past decade.

Original story:

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5 governors agree to work on climate

Tuesday, February 27th, 2007

WASHINGTON (AP) — Governors from five Western states agreed Monday to work together to reduce greenhouse gases, saying their region has suffered some of the worst of global warming with recent droughts and bad fire seasons.

The governors of Arizona, California, New Mexico, Oregon and Washington state agreed that they would develop a regional target to lower greenhouse gases and create a program aimed at helping businesses reach the still-undecided goals.

“In the absence of meaningful federal action, it is up to the states to take action to address climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions in this country,” said Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano, a Democrat. “Western states are being particularly hard-hit by the effects of climate change.”

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First bird-flu vaccine less effective than thought

Tuesday, February 27th, 2007

WASHINGTON (AP) — The nation’s first vaccine against bird flu is even less effective than previously thought, according to Food and Drug Administration documents released Monday.

In clinical trials, the two-shot series appears to provide protection to just 45 percent of adults who received the highest dose of the Sanofi Aventis SA vaccine.

An earlier, interim analysis of the same study of the vaccine suggested it sparked a protective immune response in 54 percent of patients, when measured 28 days after getting the second shot. The New England Journal of Medicine published those results in March 2006.

The FDA released the more recent results, contained in company and agency documents, ahead of a Tuesday meeting where it will ask a panel of outside experts to review the vaccine. The agency isn’t required to follow the advice of its advisory committees, but usually does. The vaccine is the first against the H5N1 influenza strain to seek FDA approval.

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The Stuff Sam Nunn’s Nightmares Are Made Of

Sunday, February 25th, 2007

By now we can too readily imagine the horror of terrorists exploding a nuclear weapon in a major American city: the gutted skyscrapers, the melted cars, the charred bodies. For Sam Nunn, however, a new terror begins the day after. That’s when the world asks whether another bomb is out there. “If a nuclear bomb went off in Moscow or New York City or Jerusalem, any number of groups would claim they have another”, Nunn told me recently. These groups would make steep demands as intelligence officials scrambled to determine which claims were real. Panic would prevail. Even after the detonation of a small, crude weapon that inflicted less damage than the bomb at Hiroshima, Nunn suggested, “The psychological damage would be incalculable. It would be a slow, step-by-step process to regain confidence. And the question will be, Why didn’t we take steps to prevent this? We will have a whole list of things we wish we’d done.“

Nunn thinks of those things every time he picks up a newspaper. When, for instance, he reads about the arrest of a Russian man who, in a sting operation, tried to sell weapons-grade uranium – a reminder of a possible black market in nuclear materials and of the poor security at facilities in the former Soviet Union. Or when he sees news about Iran’s efforts to build a nuclear bomb, which could set off a wave of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East and thus significantly raise the possibility that terrorists will someday acquire a bomb. And despite the apparent diplomatic breakthrough with North Korea earlier this month, in which the North Koreans agreed to begin dismantling their nuclear facilities in return for fuel and other aid, Nunn, who finds the deal encouraging, remains concerned since North Korea’s unpredictable, cash-starved dictatorship still retains perhaps half a dozen nuclear bombs, and the ingredients to make more.

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– This article is from the NY Times and they insist that folks have an ID and a PW in order to read their stuff. You can get these for free just by signing up. However, recently, a friend of mine suggested the website bugmenot.com :arrow: as an alternative to having to do these annoying sign ups. Check it out. Thx Bruce S. for the tip.

– Research thx to Tony B.

Companies Lay Out Global Framework to Fight Climate Change

Friday, February 23rd, 2007

– This, on the surface, seems very good news. A large group of major companies from around the world signing onto an agreement endorsing the fact that we should do something about climate change.

– But let’s remember that corporations are entities which exist to make profit. Once they’ve grown beyond the mom and pop Ben and Jerry’s stage, they become single-minded in this pursuit. Indeed, it is their very reason for existing. Note at the end of the opening sentence, in the article below, the following phrase, “creating sustainable energy systems necessary for achieving economic growth“. The implication is that they are on-board – so long as continued growth is part of the solution.

– Unfortunately, increasing growth is central to the problems we’re facing. Our foot-print on the earth now is far larger than it can sustain without serious and increasing instabilities in the global climate. We can make more efficient cars, we can change to energy efficient light bulbs, we can recycle our waste more intelligently – we can do all of that and if we continue to grow in population and consumption, we will have only delayed the inevitable.

– Perhaps, if we push it all off to our grandchildren rather than to our children, it will be more palatable?

-I’m suspicious and cynical about these ‘business alliances’. They live for growth. They understand PR. They know there are years and years of good stock reports ahead if they can deflect the social forces which might try to throttle back our runaway growth – if they can give the appearance of action so the concerned will be lulled back to sleep.

– Like the article I posted on the Brazilian Rainforest earlier , we need real action, not more talk.

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February 20, 2007 — As a significant step toward tackling climate change, an unprecedented group of companies and organizations from around the world have endorsed a bold post-Kyoto framework for affecting change at the levels of policy and industry, particularly in regard to creating sustainable energy systems necessary for achieving economic growth.

Signatories of The Path to Climate Sustainability: A Joint Statement by the Global Roundtable on Climate Change hail from a range of sectors and industries, including air transport, energy, technology, insurance, banking, and many others, from across the globe.

The statement — endorsed by Allianz, Bayer, Citigroup, DuPont, General Electric, Volvo, and many others — calls on governments to set scientifically informed targets for greenhouse gases and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The agreement also urges governments to place a price on carbon emissions and to set forth policies aimed at addressing energy efficiency and de-carbonization in all sectors. Calling climate change “an urgent problem,” the statement lays out a proactive framework for global action to mitigate risks and impacts while also meeting the global need for energy, economic growth and sustainable development. It outlines cost-effective technologies that exist today and others that could be developed and deployed to improve energy efficiency and help reduce CO2 emissions and other greenhouse gases in major sectors of the global economy.

“Leaders from key economic sectors and regions of the world have reached a consensus on the path forward to reduce human-made climate change,” said Jeffrey D. Sachs, Chair of the Global Roundtable on Climate Change and Director of The Earth Institute at Columbia University. “This initiative points the way to an urgently needed global framework for action. I congratulate the Roundtable signatories, and thank them for their bold leadership and contribution to global progress on this critical issue.”

The Climate Change Statement released today has received endorsements from critical stakeholders and independent experts including leading corporations from all economic sectors; smaller firms with very different perspectives and concerns; an array of civil, religious, environmental, research and educational institutions; and a distinguished list of world-leading experts from the fields of climate science, engineering, economics and policy studies.

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Mountain Glaciers Melting Faster Than Ever, Expert Says

Friday, February 23rd, 2007

Mountain glaciers are melting faster than ever, a leading climate expert announced yesterday, and eerie effects of the thaw are being seen from the summits of South America to the highest peak in Africa.

In Peru alone, ice fields are disappearing so quickly that giant lakes have formed where meadows recently stood.

And retreating glaciers are exposing ancient plants that haven’t been seen in 5,000 years.

Lonnie Thompson, an expert in ancient climates at Ohio State University, announced his findings yesterday at a meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in San Francisco, California.

Thompson’s latest research has focused on measuring glaciers in the Andes mountain range, which spans seven South American countries, and on Mount Kilimanjaro in eastern Africa.

“One of the things that’s very clear … is that the climate changes in those areas are unusual—unprecedented—in the thousands of years of history that we can look at in these places,” Thompson said.

Kilimanjaro’s glaciers are melting so quickly, he said, that the mountain lost nearly a quarter of its ice from 2000 to 2006.

Meanwhile, some glaciers in the Andes are melting ten times faster than they did just 20 years ago.

The massive melts are among the most provocative evidence yet that the world is getting too warm too fast to be the result of natural forces alone, Thompson said.

“If you look at what’s happened to these glaciers, they’re not just retreating, they’re accelerating [their retreat],” he said. “And it raises the question of whether this might be a fingerprint of [human-caused global] warming.”

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– One essential point that this article failed to mention is how very many people depend on glaciers and high mountain snow packs for their summer water. Most people in northern India south of the Himalayas, most people on the western side of the Andes up and down South America and many people in the dry United States southwest. As the glaciers vanish and the winter snow packs lessen and melt off sooner, water is going to be in ever shorter supply. Eventually, it will go way past critical. Social breakdown and chaos will result as millions of water refugees move to areas with more water. Just part of the coming Perfect Storm.

Warming Climate, Cod Collapse, Have Combined To Cause Rapid North Atlantic Ecosystem Changes

Friday, February 23rd, 2007

Science Daily Ecosystems along the continental shelf waters of the Northwest Atlantic Ocean, from the Labrador Sea south of Greenland all the way to North Carolina, are experiencing large, rapid changes, reports a Cornell oceanographer in the Feb. 23 issue of Science.

While some scientists have pointed to the decline of cod from overfishing as the main reason for the shifting ecosystems, the article emphasizes that climate changes are also playing a big role.

“It is becoming increasingly clear that Northwest Atlantic shelf ecosystems are being tested by climate forcing from the bottom up and overfishing from the top down,” said Charles Greene, director of the Ocean Resources and Ecosystems Program in Cornell’s Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences. “Predicting the fate of these ecosystems will be one of oceanography’s grand challenges for the 21st century.”

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Acid Oceans Threatening Marine Food Chain, Experts Warn

Friday, February 23rd, 2007

The world’s oceans are turning acidic due to the buildup of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere, and scientists say the effects on marine life will be catastrophic.

In the next 50 to 100 years corrosive seawater will dissolve the shells of tiny marine snails and reduce coral reefs to rubble, the researchers say (coral photos, facts, more).

Four leading marine experts delivered this grim prognosis yesterday at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in San Francisco, California.

The scientists stressed that increased ocean acidity is one of the gravest dangers posed by the buildup of atmospheric CO2.

“Ocean chemistry is changing to a state that has not occurred for hundreds of thousands of years,” said Richard Feely of Seattle’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory.

“Shell-building by marine organisms will slow down or stop. Reef-building will decrease or reverse.”

Already, Feely said, ocean acidity has increased about 30 percent since industrialization began spurring harmful carbon emissions centuries ago. Unless emissions are reduced from current levels, an increase of 150 percent is predicted by 2100.

Such an increase would make the oceans more acidic than they’ve been at any time in the last 20 million years, he added.

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Whither the World’s Last Forest?

Friday, February 23rd, 2007

– Read the second paragraph in the article, below, and think about it for a bit. I high-lighted the part that I think is key. And it is just this kind of talk-talk-talk while Rome burns that is so unbelievable. Some time, in not too many years, everyone will be up in arms to know why nothing was done and we’ll look back on stuff like this as absolute crimes – that we gave away this Eden through dithering.
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The Amazon is not, and never has been, a pristine wilderness that could be fenced and preserved as an intact ecosystem. Increasingly, it is proving to be a resource-rich region of a continent that desperately needs to grow. Brazil, which contains most of the Amazon basin, is under particular pressure as it tries to reconcile its great disparities between rich and poor. And there’s a voracious market for the goods, whether it’s the Chinese buying steel or the Europeans buying soybeans. At the same time, the vast basin of freshwater and forest is a global feature of such magnitude that its destruction will only help tip a fragile global climate further over the edge. The hard question facing the various governments and organizations with a stake in the outcome is whether some development can prevent a lot of deforestation.

Every year a chunk of forest equivalent to an average-size U.S. state disappears from the Amazon. In the year ending August 2004, 16,236 square miles, about twice the size of Massachusetts, were deforested. According to Conservation International, that represents between 1.1 billion and 1.4 billion trees of 4 inches or more in diameter. This deforestation took place during a time of heightened environmentalism in Brazil, during a robust return to democracy when a comprehensive body of laws protecting the Amazon had been enacted and supported by broad enforcement powers-though often, not the enforcement itself. The reaction of the Brazilian government and nongovernmental organizations to these annual figures can be summarized by the Yogi Berra quote, “It’s like déjà vu all over again.” The so-called experts annually express “shock and surprise” at the figures. The shock subsides, then reappears the following spring. Fingers point at the culprit du jour-the cattle ranchers in some years, or the soy farmers, or the migration of small families clearing homesteads. Loggers, miners, and ranchers get denounced regularly. And in response, the government usually sets aside another national park equivalent in size to a small American state. A federal department’s budget gets increased by more than $100 million, at least publicly. A government official sometimes resigns. Nongovernmental organizations use the statistics in their annual pleas for contributions. The New York Times writes an editorial reminding Brazil that “the rain forest is not a commodity to be exploited for private gain.” The Economist chides Brazil for its institutions, which are “weak, poorly coordinated, and prone to corruption and influence-peddling.” But from one year to another, the process repeats itself and the Amazon shrinks. When we first traveled here in 1980, about 3 percent had been deforested. Today, more than 20 percent is gone.

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