Archive for the ‘The Perfect Storm’ Category

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Adaptation To Global Climate Change Is An Essential Response To A Warming Planet

Saturday, February 10th, 2007

– Sad to say that many people are now recognizing that things have gone too far to stop climate change so they are beginning to think pragmatically about how we can best cope with the changes that are coming. Sad, because avoiding the problem was always within our grasp if we could but find the wisdom and the will to reach out and act. Idealistically, I still hope we will find the will and act. But, pragmatically, I suspect we do need to recognize that the changes are coming.

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Science Daily — Temperatures are rising on Earth, which is heating up the debate over global warming and the future of our planet, but what may be needed most to combat global warming is a greater focus on adapting to our changing planet, says a team of science policy experts writing in this week’s Nature magazine.

While many consider it taboo, adaptation to global climate change needs to be recognized as just as important as “mitigation,” or cutting back, of greenhouse gases humans pump into Earth’s atmosphere. The science policy experts, writing in the Feb. 8, 2007 issue of Nature, say adapting to the changing climate by building resilient societies and fostering sustainable development would go further in securing a future for humans on a warming planet than just cutting gas emissions.

“New ways of thinking about, talking about and acting on climate change are necessary if a changing society is to adapt to a changing climate,” the researchers state in “Lifting the Taboo on Adaptation.”

More… ➡

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Russia Plans New ICBMs, Nuclear Subs

Wednesday, February 7th, 2007

– The big patterns are what’s important. The world’s major powers have quietly recognized that without oil or a viable replacment for it, their engines of economic prosperity and their political and military powers are going to gradually diminsh and then disappear. Japan’s a great example. Something like 90% or more of the country’s oil is imported. What will the economic miracle of Japan do if the oil tap begins to run dry? Go back to medevil farming? Not likely. No, the US, Japan, China, Russia, the EU and a host of others are quietly but intensly thinking about how to position themselves to either gain acess to oil, hang onto the oil they have or align themselves with someone who has it or can get it. As oil gets scarce and our dependence on it remains intractable, there’s going to be no other game in town, folks.

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MOSCOW (AP) — Russia’s defense minister on Wednesday laid out an ambitious plan for building new intercontinental ballistic missiles, nuclear submarines and possibly aircraft carriers, and set the goal of exceeding the Soviet army in combat readiness.

Sergei Ivanov’s statements appeared aimed at raising his profile at home ahead of the 2008 election in which he is widely seen as a potential contender to succeed President Vladimir Putin. But they also seemed to reflect a growing chill in Russian-U.S. relations and the Kremlin’s concern about U.S. missile defense plans.

Ivanov told parliament the military would get 17 new ballistic missiles this year – a drastic increase over the average of four deployed annually in recent years. The purchases are part of a weapons modernization program for 2007-2015 worth about $190 billion.

The plan envisages the deployment of 34 new silo-based Topol-M missiles and control units, as well as an additional 50 such missiles mounted on mobile launchers by 2015; Russia so far has deployed more than 40 silo-based Topol-Ms.

Putin and other officials have described the Topol-M as a bulwark of Russia’s nuclear might for years to come, and said it can penetrate any prospective missile defenses. Last week, Putin dismissed U.S. claims that missile defense sites Washington hopes to establish in Poland and the Czech Republic were intended to counter threats from Iran, and said Russia would respond by developing more efficient weapons systems.

More… ➡

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97% of Africans Can’t Afford Contraceptives

Wednesday, February 7th, 2007

– Poverty, the oppression of women, and high birth rates. These things generally travel together and here’s a great article pointing up the salient points. I especially like the graphic at the article’s opening (you’ll have to follow the link to see it).

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To the article: ➡

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Globalization & Great Apes: Illegal Logging Destroying Last Strongholds Of Orangutans In National Parks

Wednesday, February 7th, 2007

– This is very sad – it is our future world we are permanently and irretrievably giving away to satiate the short-sighted and immediate greed of some of us.

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Science Daily — The tropical forests of South East Asia, important for local livelihoods and the last home of the orangutan are disappearing far faster than experts have previously supposed according to a new Rapid Response report from The UN Environment Programme.

The report says that natural rainforests of Sumatra and Borneo are being cleared so rapidly that up to 98% may be destroyed by 2022 without urgent action. The rate of loss, which has accelerated in the past five years, outstrips a previous UNEP report released in 2002 at the World Summit for Sustainable Development (WSSD) Then, experts estimated that most of the suitable orangutan habitat would be lost by 2032.

The illegal logging, driven by global demands, accounts for tens of millions of cubic metres annually and an estimated more than 73% of all logging in Indonesia. Approximately 20% of the logs are smuggled directly out of Indonesia, the remaining is used to support an extensive international and local wood industry, and then exported to the international markets by well-organized, but elusive commercial networks.

New satellite imagery reveals that the illegal logging is now entering a new critical phase: As the demands grow, the industry and international market are running out of cheap illegal timber and are now entering the national parks where the only remaining timber available in commercial amounts is found.

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China Says Rich Countries Should Take Lead on Global Warming

Wednesday, February 7th, 2007

– The US government is still in deep denial about Global Warming and the fastest two rising powers, China and India, both acknowledge the problem but they say that it doesn’t belong to them. From their POV, the first world powers earned their wealth by trashing the environment for the last 150 years and now we’re asking them to stall their climbs out of poverty because the world cannot stand the load of their pollution in addition to ours. That is, indeed, a hard POV to find fault with – other than that (a) two wrongs don’t make a right and (b) if we all don’t act to curb the developing problems, the consequences will fall equally upon all of us.

– When I hear these sorts of back-and-forths between the world’s powers over who should do what, the pragmatist in me thinks it is unlikely that we (humanity) are going to act in a concerted way for our own good. And, like stupid sailors, we will all be still arguing as the only life boat we have sinks beneath the coming Perfect Storm along with the futures of our children.”

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BEIJING, Feb. 6 — China said Tuesday that wealthier countries must take the lead in curbing greenhouse gas emissions and refused to say whether it would agree to any mandatory emissions limits that might hamper its booming economy.

Jiang Yu, a spokeswoman for the Foreign Ministry, said China was willing to contribute to an international effort to combat global warming but placed the primary responsibility on richer, developed nations that have been polluting for much longer.

“It must be pointed out that climate change has been caused by the long-term historic emissions of developed countries and their high per capita emissions,” she said, adding that developed countries have responsibilities for global warming “that cannot be shirked.”

Ms. Jiang’s comments, combined with another briefing on Tuesday by the country’s leading climate expert, represented China’s first official response to a landmark report issued last week by a United Nations panel of scientists that declared global warming is “unequivocal” and warned that immediate action must be taken to prevent harmful consequences.

China is the world’s second largest emitter of the greenhouse gases contributing to climate change, trailing only the United States. Last November, the International Energy Agency in Paris predicted that China would pass the United States in emissions of carbon dioxide in 2009. China had been expected to surpass the United States as late as 2020, but its soaring consumption of coal has rapidly increased the country’s emissions.

China derives nearly 70 percent of its energy from coal-fired power plants, many of them equipped with substandard pollution controls.

More… ➡

Posted in Climate Change, Politics, Politics - The Wrong Way, The Perfect Storm | No Comments »

Iran ‘sets up atomic centrifuges’

Tuesday, February 6th, 2007

– Both the US and Israel have said that Iran will not be allowed to have nuclear weapons and Iran has said, essentially, that it will do as it pleases. Unless something significant changes in this equation, things are not going to turn out well.

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Iran has set up more than 300 centrifuges at two uranium enrichment sites at its underground Natanz complex, Western diplomats have said.

If confirmed, the centrifuges would be the first of 3,000 that Iran says it is planning to install at the site in the coming months.

The centrifuges could pave the way for work to create enough fissile material for a nuclear warhead.

Iran has repeatedly denied that it plans to develop nuclear weapons.

Two “cascades” of 164 centrifuges each have been installed at Natanz, the diplomats said on condition of anonymity.

Centrifuges spin uranium gas to enrich it to low levels for fuel and much higher levels for nuclear weapons.

Iran has said it eventually plans to install 54,000 centrifuges at Natanz.

Former UN nuclear inspector David Albright, whose Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security tracks Iran’s nuclear activities, said Iran should be able to reach its goal of 3,000 centrifuges by the end of the year.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies in London (IISS) has said that once Iran has 3,000 centrifuges operating smoothly, it could produce enough highly enriched uranium for one bomb in nine to 11 months.

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Posted in CrashBlogging, Fundamentalism, Nuclear Waste, Terrorism, The Perfect Storm | No Comments »

China Sweats in Warmest Temperatures on Record

Tuesday, February 6th, 2007

BEIJING (AFP)—Skating has been banned on the melting ice of Beijing’s lakes, trees are blossoming early and people are shedding their heavy clothes as China experiences its warmest winter on record.

The temperature in the capital hit 16 degrees Celsius (60 degrees Fahrenheit) on Monday, far above the historical average of just below freezing for this time of year and the highest since records were first compiled in 1840.

The head of the Beijing Municipal Observatory, Guo Hu, said the record high was part of a consistent trend this winter, while state-run media reported similar phenomena across the country.

“In January and February, Beijing experienced its highest temperatures in 167 years,” Guo told AFP on Tuesday.

“Beijing has basically seen warmer winters from the late 1980s. This is due to the influence of global warming.”

More… ➡ and ➡

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Bans on UK poultry amid flu cull

Monday, February 5th, 2007

HOLTON, England (Reuters) — Russia and Japan banned British poultry imports as Britain pressed ahead with a cull of 160,000 turkeys after the nation’s first outbreak of a deadly strain of bird flu in farmed poultry.

Workers wearing white protective suits, black gloves and masks loaded the turkeys into crates to be gassed following the discovery of the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain of avian flu on a farm at Holton in eastern England run by Europe’s largest turkey producer, Bernard Matthews.

Farm workers were offered anti-viral drugs and restrictions were imposed on the way birds are housed or moved in a wide area surrounding the farm.

The outbreak had an immediate impact on Britain’s poultry industry, the second largest in the European Union after France.

Russians officials said Moscow would ban British poultry imports from Tuesday to prevent the spread of bird flu. Japan also banned British poultry imports while Ireland barred the import of poultry from Britain for “gatherings and shows”.

The European Union’s top health official said he was optimistic the bloc would be able to control bird flu this year despite outbreaks of the H5N1 strain in Britain and Hungary.

But EU Health and Food Safety Commissioner Markos Kyprianou added: “The virus is still around. We should never feel that we are safe.”

The H5N1 virus has spread into the Middle East, Africa and Europe since it reemerged in Asia in 2003 and outbreaks have now been detected in birds in around 50 countries.

It remains largely an animal disease, but can kill people who come into close contact with infected birds. It has killed 165 people over the past four years, a 22-year-old woman in Nigeria being the latest confirmed victim.

Sixty-three people have been killed in Indonesia, the country worst affected.

Scientists fear the virus could spark a pandemic in which millions die if it mutates into a form that passes easily from person to person.

More… ➡

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Science Panel Calls Global Warming “Unequivocal”

Monday, February 5th, 2007

– Over the last few days, while I’ve been traveling, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, has released its fourth report and you will probably have been living under a rock to have not heard about it. The report, which draws on the expertise of 2500 scientists, worldwide simply makes no bones about it. Global warming is real, humans are the cause of it and we haven’t much time to do something about it if we want to leave anything better than a disaster to our children.

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PARIS, Feb. 2 – In a grim and powerful assessment of the future of the planet, the leading international network of climate scientists has concluded for the first time that global warming is “unequivocal” and that human activity is the main driver, “very likely” causing most of the rise in temperatures since 1950.

They said the world was in for centuries of climbing temperatures, rising seas and shifting weather patterns — unavoidable results of the buildup of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere.

But their report, released here on Friday by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, said warming and its harmful consequences could be substantially blunted by prompt action.

While the report provided scant new evidence of a climate apocalypse now, and while it expressly avoided recommending courses of action, officials from the United Nations agencies that created the panel in 1988 said it spoke of the urgent need to limit looming and momentous risks.

“In our daily lives we all respond urgently to dangers that are much less likely than climate change to affect the future of our children,” said Achim Steiner, executive director of the United Nations Environment Program, which administers the panel along with the World Meteorological Organization.

“Feb. 2 will be remembered as the date when uncertainty was removed as to whether humans had anything to do with climate change on this planet,” he went on. “The evidence is on the table.”

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research thx to John P, & Lisa G.

– The first two of the articles linked to, above, are from the NY Times and they insist that folks have an ID and a PW in order to read their stuff. You can get these for free just by signing up. However, recently, a friend of mine suggested the website bugmenot.com :arrow: as an alternative to having to do these annoying sign ups. Check it out. Thx Bruce S. for the tip.

– You can also find a PDF based copy of the full IPCC report here: ➡

Posted in Climate Change, The Perfect Storm | No Comments »

Can Humanity Survive? Want to Bet on It?

Wednesday, January 31st, 2007

Sixty ago years, a group of physicists concerned about nuclear weapons created the Doomsday Clock and set its hands at seven minutes to midnight. Now, the clock’s keepers, alarmed by new dangers like climate change, have moved the hands up to 11:55 p.m.

My first reaction was a sigh of relief. After all, the 1947 doomsday prediction marked the start of a golden age. Never have so many humans lived so long — and maybe never so peacefully — as during the past 60 years. The per-capita rate of violence, particularly in the West, seems remarkably low by historical standards. If the clock’s keepers are worried once again, their track record suggests we’re in for even happier days.

But there’s one novel twist that gives me pause. When the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists announced two weeks ago in Washington that it was adjusting the clock, it was joined in a trans-Atlantic press conference by scientists at the Royal Society in London. One of them was the society’s president, Martin Rees, a new breed of doomsayer.

Dr. Rees, a cosmologist at Cambridge and Britain’s astronomer royal, doesn’t just issue gloomy predictions. He doesn’t just move the hands of an imaginary and inscrutable clock. (Its keepers have never explained what one of their minutes equals on anyone else’s clock or calendar.)

No, Dr. Rees is braver. He gives odds on doomsday and offers to bet on disaster. In his 2003 book, “Our Final Hour,” he gives civilization no more than a 50 percent chance of surviving until 2100.

Dr. Rees is not a knee-jerk technophobe — he expects great advances as researchers around the world link their knowledge — but he fears that progress will be undone by what he calls the new global village idiots. He’s sure enough of himself to post an offer on Long Bets, a clever innovation on the Web that Stewart Brand helped start with money from Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon.com.

More… ➡

– This article is from the NY Times and they insist that folks have an ID and a PW in order to read their stuff. You can get these for free just by signing up. However, recently, a friend of mine suggested the website bugmenot.com :arrow: as an alternative to having to do these annoying sign ups. Check it out. Thx Bruce S. for the tip.

– Research thx to Lisa G.

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