Archive for the ‘The Perfect Storm’ Category

Is China Making Its Bird-Flu Outbreak Worse?

Sunday, March 15th, 2009

– Scary stuff.  here’s a quote from within this story:

 Dr. Lo Wing-Lok, an adviser to the Hong Kong government on communicable diseases, said the mainland had not been forthright about the spread of bird flu in poultry. “There’s no doubt of an outbreak of bird flu in China, though the government hasn’t admitted it,” he told Bloomberg.

– – – – – – – – – -   – – – – – – – – – – -   – – – – – – – – – – –

One thing is certain about avian influenza: it’s deadly. All three people who contracted the H5N1 strain of the virus in China last year died. In the first six weeks of 2009, eight people have come down with bird flu, and five have died. Another thing is that while the disease has yet to go pandemic, as many doctors fear it could, it remains worrisomely persistent. Every year since 2003, about 100 people in Asia, the Middle East and Africa contract the disease. Last year, in a rare exception, the number dropped below 50.

But bird flu, it seems, is back. Last month’s five deaths — one of the highest tallies of bird-flu deaths China has ever recorded in a month — were in locations as far removed from one another as Beijing in the north, Xinjiang in the west, Guangxi in the south, Hunan in the center and Shandong in the east. “From a disease-control perspective, the increase in cases in China is notable, as is the wide geographic spread,” says Dr. Hans Troedsson, the World Health Organization’s representative in China. There is still no evidence that the virus has mutated to spread easily between humans, he says. But while such a nightmare scenario, which could set off a global flu pandemic that could kill millions, has shown no signs of being an immediate threat, serious concerns remain. “The fact that this is the highest number for a single month in China reminds us that the virus is entrenched and circulating in the environment,” Troedsson says. (See pictures of the resurgence of bird flu.)

On Feb. 10, authorities in the far-Western region of Xinjiang culled more than 13,000 chickens in the city of Hotan after 519 died in a bird-flu outbreak. But until this week, China had reported no widespread outbreaks of the virus among bird populations, prompting concerns among some public-health experts that mainland health and veterinary authorities could be missing — or even concealing — the spread of the disease through poultry and wild birds. Hong Kong, where the first human cases of H5N1 infection were found in 1997, reported finding a dozen birds with the deadly strain of the virus earlier this year — a strong indication that the virus is very likely present in adjacent Guangdong province. But so far, Guangdong has reported no bird cases. Equally unusual is that after such a busy month of infections in China, reports of human cases have gone silent. “It’s a surprise for me, since in January, the human cases, you have so many, but in February it suddenly stops,” says Dr. Guan Yi, a virologist from the University of Hong Kong. (Read “Is Hong Kong’s Bird-Flu Vaccine Failing?”)

More…

Biofuels Boom Could Fuel Rainforest Destruction, Researcher Warns

Sunday, March 15th, 2009

Farmers across the tropics might raze forests to plant biofuel crops, according to new research by Holly Gibbs, a postdoctoral researcher at Stanford’s Woods Institute for the Environment.

“If we run our cars on biofuels produced in the tropics, chances will be good that we are effectively burning rainforests in our gas tanks,” she warned.

Policies favoring biofuel crop production may inadvertently contribute to, not slow, the process of climate change, Gibbs said. Such an environmental disaster could be “just around the corner without more thoughtful energy policies that consider potential ripple effects on tropical forests,” she added.

Gibbs’ predictions are based on her new study, in which she analyzed detailed satellite images collected between 1980 and 2000. The study is the first to do such a detailed characterization of the pathways of agricultural expansion throughout the entire tropical region. Gibbs hopes that this new knowledge will contribute to making prudent decisions about future biofuel policies and subsidies.

Gibbs presented her findings in Chicago on Feb. 14, during a symposium at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. The symposium was titled “Biofuels, Tropical Deforestation, and Climate Policy: Key Challenges and Opportunities.”

More…

Disobedience of edicts has deadly consequences

Sunday, March 15th, 2009

– I’m as much a environmentalist liberal as the next fellow.  But sometimes, I think, “Enough is enough”.   The planet’s small enough as it is and we’ve got to work out how to get along with the biosphere that we’re all dependent on without destroying ourselves during the learning process. 

– We just don’t need or have time for fundamentalist idiocy like this. 

– Sorry, if that’s not PC enough.  But, we’re 10 folks in a boat built to hold six.   And I can think of a few who should go over the side now.   Sorry.

= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =

Militants who have seized control of swaths of Pakistan’s Swat Valley have set today as a deadline for men to grow beards or face retribution.

In the latest edict issued by Taleban forces seeking to impose Islamic law on an area once celebrated as a tourist destination, men have been told to begin growing beards and to wear caps. Barbers in the Matta area, a militant stronghold, have been ordered to stop offering shaves, and have posted signs in their shops asking customers not to request them.

The Swat Valley, just five hours from Islamabad, has gradually fallen under the control of militants headed by the cleric Maulana Fazlullah. Despite claims by the Pakistani Army that they are successfully confronting the extremists, local residents say up to 80 per cent of the valley is outside Government control.

In recent weeks the militants’ tactics have become increasingly extreme. Corpses of people who have fallen foul of the Taleban have been strung up in trees and markets have been ruled off-limits to women.

More…

Foreign investors in the U.S. economy are wavering

Sunday, March 15th, 2009

– Just the other day, I published a piece here entitled, “Wen Voices Concern Over China’s U.S. Treasuries“.   Well, here are two more stories in the same vein.   Keep listening for that big shoe to drop.

Foreigners Wary of Long-Term U.S. Securities

and

China Blasts U.S. Economic Policy, Expresses Doubt in Financial System

– The weather barometer is hinting that change is on the way.  Jeez, with this many articles, we’ve almost got a full set of shoes, eh?

Carbon cuts ‘only give 50/50 chance of saving planet’

Sunday, March 15th, 2009

As states negotiate Kyoto’s successor, simulations show catastrophe just years away

The world’s best efforts at combating climate change are likely to offer no more than a 50-50 chance of keeping temperature rises below the threshold of disaster, according to research from the UK Met Office.

The key aim of holding the expected increase to 2C, beyond which damage to the natural world and to human society is likely to be catastrophic, is far from assured, the research suggests, even if all countries engage forthwith in a radical and enormous crash programme to slash greenhouse gas emissions – something which itself is by no means guaranteed.

The chilling forecast from the supercomputer climate model of the Met Office’s Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research will provide a sobering wake-up call for governments around the world, who will begin formally negotiating three weeks today the new international treaty on tackling global warming, which is due to be signed in Copenhagen in December.

More…

– research thanks to Robin S.

Permafrost is thawing in northern Sweden

Saturday, March 14th, 2009

Areas with lowland permafrost are likely to shrink in northern Sweden.  Warmer summers and more winter precipitation are two of the reasons.  This is shown in a new dissertation from Lund University in Sweden.

Permafrost is ground that is frozen year round at least two years in a row.  North of the Arctic Circle permafrost is common due to the cold climate.  For several years, physical geographer Margareta Johansson at Lund University has studied lowland permafrost in peat mires surrounding Abisko.  Permafrost is on the edge of its range there.  Johansson states that permafrost is being affected by climate changes.

“At one of our sites, permafrost has completely disappeared from the greater part of the mire during the last decade,” she says.

In areas where permafrost is thawing the ground becomes unstable and can collapse.  This can be a local and regional problem in areas with cities and infrastructure.  Moreover, the thaw can cause increased emissions of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane from the ground.  Roughly 25 percent of all land surface in the northern hemisphere are underlain by permafrost.

The thawing of permafrost that occurs today is likely to continue, in Margareta Johansson’s view.  She regards it as probable that there will be no permafrost in lowland areas around Abisko in 50 years.

“With the present climate it is likely that the changes seen in permafrost in the Abisko area will also occur in other areas, and my study can therefore provide a basis for studies in other geographic areas that are next in line,” she says.

Margareta Johansson’s research shows that the permafrost in the Abisko area is thawing both from above and from below.  From above it is thawing primarily because the summers have become warmer and because the snow cover has become thicker in winter.  A thicker snow layer acts as an insulating blanket, which means that the ground does not get as cold as it would under a thinner layer of snow.

From below the permafrost is thawing probably as a result of greater mobility in the groundwater.  Margareta Johansson explains that the annual precipitation of both rain and snow has increased dramatically during the last decade.  More rain and more melted snow create more movement down in the groundwater, which thaws the permafrost.  Between 1997 and 2007 a total of 362 millimeters of precipitation fell annually in Abisko, which is a 20-percent increase compared to the mean annual precipitation for the years 1961 and 1990.

The dissertation will be presented and defended at Lund University on February 26, 2009.

To the original…

‘Coral lab’ offers acidity insight

Saturday, March 14th, 2009

Carbon dioxide emissions from human activities are acidifying the oceans and threaten a mass extinction of sea life, a top ocean scientist warns.

Dr Carol Turley from Plymouth Marine Laboratory says it is impossible to know how marine life will cope, but she fears many species will not survive.

Since the Industrial Revolution, CO2 emissions have already turned the sea about 30% more acidic, say researchers.

It is more acidic now than it has been for at least 500,000 years, they add.

The problem is set to worsen as emissions of the greenhouse gas increase through the 21st Century.

“I am very worried for ocean ecosystems which are currently productive and diverse,” Carol Turely told BBC News.

“I believe we may be heading for a mass extinction, as the rate of change in the oceans hasn’t been seen since the dinosaurs.

“It may have a major impact on food security. It really is imperative that we cut emissions of CO2.”

Dr Turley is chairing a session on ocean acidification at the Copenhagen Climate Change Congress.

More…

Climate scenarios ‘being realised’

Saturday, March 14th, 2009

The worst-case scenarios on climate change envisaged by the UN two years ago are already being realised, say scientists at an international meeting.

In a statement in Copenhagen on their six key messages to political leaders, they say there is a increasing risk of abrupt or irreversible climate shifts.

Even modest temperature rises will affect millions of people, particularly in the developing world, they warn.

But, they say, most tools needed to cut carbon dioxide emissions already exist.

More than 2,500 researchers and economists attended this meeting designed to update the world on the state of climate research ahead of key political negotiations set for December this year.

New data was presented in Copenhagen on sea level rise, which indicated that the best estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) made two years ago were woefully out of date.

Scientists heard that waters could rise by over a metre across the world with huge impacts for hundreds of millions of people.

There was also new information on how the Amazon rainforest would cope with rising temperatures. A UK Meteorological Office study concluded there would be a 75% loss of tree cover if the world warmed by three degrees for a century.

The scientists hope that their conclusions will remove any excuses from the political process.

Dr Katherine Richardson, who chaired the scientific steering committee that organised the conference, said the research presented added new certainty to the IPCC reports.

“We’ve seen lots more data, we can see where we are, no new surprises, we have a problem.”

More…

War passes; the climate is forever

Saturday, March 14th, 2009

Humans are better at dealing with crises than long-term problems, writes Tom Burke. The future could judge us harshly.

This is arguably the most important year in human history. The grandiose invites suspicion, so the previous sentence was written reluctantly. But ideas do not seek permission before they enter your mind, nor are they always the most welcome of guests.

The idea that this might be the most important year in human history was prompted by the headlines that greeted the New Year. War and recession, tragically familiar sources of human misery, dominated. Yet it was what was missing from them that provoked my unwelcome thought.

In December, a meeting on an issue far more important than war or recession to the future prosperity and security of literally everyone on earth will take place in Copenhagen. Yet, nowhere did its prospects make the front pages. Terrible though they are, we know that consequences of war and recession pass. Climate change is forever.

The punctuation of history is marked by the names of the places where order was restored after chaos had prevailed – Westphalia, Versailles, San Francisco. It is not an exaggeration to say that what happens – or does not – in Copenhagen in December will shape human destiny more deeply, and for longer, than any of them.

More…

Forget About “Recovery”

Saturday, March 14th, 2009

– I really like Jim Kunstler’s straight talk.   Enjoy:

– – – – – – – – – – –

At the risk of confirming my critics’ dumbest charge — that I am a “doomer” — the mandate of clarity requires me to ask: to what state of affairs do we expect to recover? If the answer is a return to an economy based on building ever more suburban sprawl, on credit card over-spending, on routine securitized debt shenanigans in banking, and on consistently lying to ourselves about what reality demands of us, then we are a mortally deluded nation. We’re done with that, we’re beyond that now, we’ve crossed the frontier and left that all behind, and we’d better get our heads straight about it.

I maintain that there are countless constructive tasks waiting to occupy us on a long national “to do” list for rebuilding a national economy, but they are way different than the ones currently preoccupying government and the mainstream media. The Obama White House, Congress, and The New York Times are hung up on exercises in futility — “rescuing” banks and insurance companies that cannot be rescued (because they are hopelessly trapped in “black hole” credit default swaps contracts), and re-starting a “consumer” binge that was completely crazy in the first place, based, as it was, on a something-for-nothing standard-of-living.

More…