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– I’ve published before on the potential for global problems as a result of pandemics. Previous posts: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7.

– Such pandemics are just one of the elements in the Perfect Storm Hypothesis.

– Especially worrying is the potential for an outbreak of Avian Bird Flu. This virus (H5N1) currently infects humans only very rarely and usually only after very close contact with infected birds. But, the scientists have been saying for several years now that just a single mutation in the current virus could give it the ability to move easily from human to human. The flu pandemic that swept the world in 1917/1918 was just such an event wherein an avian virus mutated so that it could easily infect humans and the result was more people died in the resulting pandemic than died in WWI.

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WASHINGTON (AFP) – The US military has begun to plan for a possible avian flu pandemic that could kill as many as three million people in the United States in as little as six weeks, a Pentagon planning document said.

The Defense Department’s “Implementation Plan for Pandemic Influenza,” which was posted Wednesday on a Pentagon website, lays out guidelines and planning assumptions for US military services and combatant commands.

Possible scenarios include US troops being called in to put down riots, guard pharmaceutical plants and shipments, and help restrict the movement of people inside the country and across its borders.

The plan envisions fast moving, catastrophic waves of disease that would overwhelm health facilities and cripple the ability of state and local authorities to provide even basic commodities or services.

“A pandemic in the United States could result in 20-35 percent of the population becoming ill, three percent being hospitalized, and a fatality rate of one percent,” the document said in a section on “planning assumptions.”

A human-to-human outbreak of avian flu was most likely to occur outside the United States and may not be contained effectively, it said.

“A pandemic outbreak will last between 6-12 weeks and multiple pandemic waves will follow,” it said.

If a pandemic influenza starts outside the United States, it will enter the US at multiple locations and spread quickly to other parts of the country, according to the report.

A vaccine for the specific strain of flu would not be available for distribution for a minimum of six to nine months after a human-to-human outbreak had been clinically confirmed, it said.

Transportation within states or internationally will be restricted to contain the spread of the virus, and communities may voluntarily close schools and limit public gatherings.

“Quarantine and other movement restrictions, especially if the restrictions are involuntary, will have minimal effect on the spread of the disease due to a very short incubation period and the ability of asymptomatic individuals to shed the virus,” the document said.

“Military and civilian medical treatment facilities will be overwhelmed,” it said.

It said the military will be called on to evacuate non-infected people from areas abroad that are having problems, and to help allies.

But the guidance said the US military’s top priority would be to preserve the operational effectiveness of the Defense Department and its forces around the world.

Additionally, the Defense Department will develop a plan to ensure the continuity of operations of the US government and be prepared to support civilian authorities with medical supplies, airlift and security forces.

A key military role will be to distribute medical supplies and medications and provide security for the production and shipment of vaccines on orders of the president.

“When directed by the president, DoD will provide support to civil authorities in the event of a civil disturbance,” the document said. “DoD will augment civilian law enforcement efforts to restore and maintain order in accordance with existing statutes.”

The military also may assist civil authorities in “isolating and/or quarantining groups of people in order to minimize the spread of disease during an influenza pandemic,” it said.

To the original: ➡

– thanks to Kevin at The Cryptogon for this story.

New strains of the flu virus are showing resistance to drugs that experts had hoped would slow the spread of any pandemic, research suggests.

Tamiflu is viewed as the best weapon currently available against a flu pandemic, and is being stockpiled by governments including the UK’s.

But Japanese researchers found evidence of emerging resistance to Tamiflu, and a second drug Relenza.

The study is published in the Journal of the American Medical Association.

Experts have warned that a flu pandemic could claim millions of lives around the world.

There is concern that the H5N1 strain of the virus – known as bird flu – could mutate to gain the ability to spread easily from person to person.

At present the virus, a type of the A strain of flu, does not have this ability, although it has killed 170 people since 2003. These were mainly poultry workers, who came into very close contact with infected birds.

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WASHINGTON (AP) — The nation’s first vaccine against bird flu is even less effective than previously thought, according to Food and Drug Administration documents released Monday.

In clinical trials, the two-shot series appears to provide protection to just 45 percent of adults who received the highest dose of the Sanofi Aventis SA vaccine.

An earlier, interim analysis of the same study of the vaccine suggested it sparked a protective immune response in 54 percent of patients, when measured 28 days after getting the second shot. The New England Journal of Medicine published those results in March 2006.

The FDA released the more recent results, contained in company and agency documents, ahead of a Tuesday meeting where it will ask a panel of outside experts to review the vaccine. The agency isn’t required to follow the advice of its advisory committees, but usually does. The vaccine is the first against the H5N1 influenza strain to seek FDA approval.

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HOLTON, England (Reuters) — Russia and Japan banned British poultry imports as Britain pressed ahead with a cull of 160,000 turkeys after the nation’s first outbreak of a deadly strain of bird flu in farmed poultry.

Workers wearing white protective suits, black gloves and masks loaded the turkeys into crates to be gassed following the discovery of the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain of avian flu on a farm at Holton in eastern England run by Europe’s largest turkey producer, Bernard Matthews.

Farm workers were offered anti-viral drugs and restrictions were imposed on the way birds are housed or moved in a wide area surrounding the farm.

The outbreak had an immediate impact on Britain’s poultry industry, the second largest in the European Union after France.

Russians officials said Moscow would ban British poultry imports from Tuesday to prevent the spread of bird flu. Japan also banned British poultry imports while Ireland barred the import of poultry from Britain for “gatherings and shows”.

The European Union’s top health official said he was optimistic the bloc would be able to control bird flu this year despite outbreaks of the H5N1 strain in Britain and Hungary.

But EU Health and Food Safety Commissioner Markos Kyprianou added: “The virus is still around. We should never feel that we are safe.”

The H5N1 virus has spread into the Middle East, Africa and Europe since it reemerged in Asia in 2003 and outbreaks have now been detected in birds in around 50 countries.

It remains largely an animal disease, but can kill people who come into close contact with infected birds. It has killed 165 people over the past four years, a 22-year-old woman in Nigeria being the latest confirmed victim.

Sixty-three people have been killed in Indonesia, the country worst affected.

Scientists fear the virus could spark a pandemic in which millions die if it mutates into a form that passes easily from person to person.

More… ➡