Archive for the ‘Rising Ocean Levels’ Category

Ancient ice shelf breaks free from Canadian Arctic

Friday, December 29th, 2006

TORONTO, Ontario (AP) — A giant ice shelf the size of 11,000 football fields has snapped free from Canada’s Arctic, scientists said.

The mass of ice broke clear 16 months ago from the coast of Ellesmere Island, about 800 kilometers (497 miles) south of the North Pole, but no one was present to see it in Canada’s remote north.

Scientists using satellite images later noticed that it became a newly formed ice island in just an hour and left a trail of icy boulders floating in its wake. (Watch the satellite images that clued in ice watchers)

Warwick Vincent of Laval University, who studies Arctic conditions, traveled to the newly formed ice island and could not believe what he saw.

“This is a dramatic and disturbing event. It shows that we are losing remarkable features of the Canadian North that have been in place for many thousands of years. We are crossing climate thresholds, and these may signal the onset of accelerated change ahead,” Vincent said Thursday.

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DIRE WARNINGS FROM CHINA’S FIRST CLIMATE CHANGE REPORT

Thursday, December 28th, 2006

– Someone once commented that few people will just lie down and starve quietly.China’s ability to feed itself is near an edge and it shows no signs of reigning in the population’s dreams of western style affluence.  Its water tables are falling and temperatures are rising. When the food does run short, it will uncork its vast coffers of trade-surplus money and wade into the international food markets to buy food to stave off social instability at home and this, in turn, will drive food prices beyond the reach of many in marginal nations and global stability will be well on its way down the slippery slope.

– China is a coming global train wreck, powering into the dead-end alley of more growth and more consumption with the pedal to the metal and this report is merely a small note someone tossed off the train as it passed.

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BEIJING (AFP) Temperatures in China will rise significantly in coming decades and water shortages will worsen, state media has reported, citing the government’s first national assessment of global climate change.

Greenhouse gases released due to human activity are leading to ever more serious problems in terms of climate change,” the Ministry of Science and Technology said in a statement.

Global climate change has an impact on the nation’s ability to develop further,” said the ministry, one of 12 government departments that prepared the report.

In just over a decade, global warming will start to be felt in the world’s most populous country, and it will get warmer yet over the next two or three generations.

Compared with 2000, the average temperatures will increase by between 1.3 and 2.1 degrees Celsius by 2020, the China News Service reported, citing the assessment.

By the middle of the century, the annual average temperature in China will rise by as much as 3.3 degrees Celsius (more than five degrees Fahrenheit), and by 2100 it could soar by as much as six degrees Celsius, according to the news service.

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Disappearing world: Global warming claims tropical island

Monday, December 25th, 2006

For the first time, an inhabited island has disappeared beneath rising seas.

Rising seas, caused by global warming, have for the first time washed an inhabited island off the face of the Earth. The obliteration of Lohachara island, in India’s part of the Sundarbans where the Ganges and the Brahmaputra rivers empty into the Bay of Bengal, marks the moment when one of the most apocalyptic predictions of environmentalists and climate scientists has started coming true.

As the seas continue to swell, they will swallow whole island nations, from the Maldives to the Marshall Islands, inundate vast areas of countries from Bangladesh to Egypt, and submerge parts of scores of coastal cities.

Eight years ago, as exclusively reported in The Independent on Sunday, the first uninhabited islands – in the Pacific atoll nation of Kiribati – vanished beneath the waves. The people of low-lying islands in Vanuatu, also in the Pacific, have been evacuated as a precaution, but the land still juts above the sea. The disappearance of Lohachara, once home to 10,000 people, is unprecedented.

It has been officially recorded in a six-year study of the Sunderbans by researchers at Calcutta’s Jadavpur University. So remote is the island that the researchers first learned of its submergence, and that of an uninhabited neighbouring island, Suparibhanga, when they saw they had vanished from satellite pictures.

Two-thirds of nearby populated island Ghoramara has also been permanently inundated. Dr Sugata Hazra, director of the university’s School of Oceanographic Studies, says “it is only a matter of some years” before it is swallowed up too. Dr Hazra says there are now a dozen “vanishing islands” in India’s part of the delta. The area’s 400 tigers are also in danger.

Until now the Carteret Islands off Papua New Guinea were expected to be the first populated ones to disappear, in about eight years’ time, but Lohachara has beaten them to the dubious distinction.

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Scientists fear results of collapsed ice shelf

Tuesday, November 28th, 2006

By JOHN HENZELL, The Press newspaper, Christchurch, New Zealand

The Ross Ice Shelf, a raft of ice the size of France, could collapse quickly, triggering a dramatic rise in sea levels, scientists warn.

A New Zealand-led drilling team in Antarctica has recovered three million years of climate history, but the news is not good for the future.

Initial analysis of sea-floor cores near Scott Base suggest the Ross Ice Shelf had collapsed in the past and had probably done so suddenly.

The team’s co-chief scientist, Tim Naish, said the sediment record was important because it provided crucial evidence about how the Ross Ice Shelf would react to climate change, with potential to dramatically increase sea levels.

“If the past is any indication of the future, then the ice shelf will collapse,” he said.

“If the ice shelf goes, then what about the West Antarctic Ice Sheet? What we’ve learnt from the Antarctic Peninsula is when once buttressing ice sheets go, the glaciers feeding them move faster and that’s the thing that isn’t so cheery.”

Antarctica stores 90 per cent of the world’s water, with the the West Antarctic Ice Sheet holding an estimated 30 million cubic kilometres.

In January, British Antarctic Survey researchers predicted that its collapse would make sea levels rise by at least 5m (16ft), with other estimates predicting a rise of up to 17m (55ft).

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Apocalypse Now: How Mankind is Sleepwalking to the End of the Earth

Saturday, October 21st, 2006

– This is a particularly good article and I highly recommend reading it. Â It may be more that a year old but its information is, if anything, even more topical than ever.

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Floods, storms and droughts. Melting Arctic ice, shrinking glaciers, oceans turning to acid. The world’s top scientists warned last week that dangerous climate change is taking place today, not the day after tomorrow. You don’t believe it? Then, says Geoffrey Lean, read this…

(Originally published on February 6th, 2005)

Last week, 200 of the world’s leading climate scientists – meeting at Tony Blair’s request at the Met Office’s new headquarters at Exeter – issued the most urgent warning to date that dangerous climate change is taking place, and that time is running out.

Next week the Kyoto Protocol, the international treaty that tries to control global warming, comes into force after a seven-year delay. But it is clear that the protocol does not go nearly far enough.

The alarms have been going off since the beginning of one of the warmest Januaries on record. First, Dr Rajendra Pachauri – chairman of the official Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – told a UN conference in Mauritius that the pollution which causes global warming has reached “dangerous” levels.

Then the biggest-ever study of climate change, based at Oxford University, reported that it could prove to be twice as catastrophic as the IPCC’s worst predictions. And an international task force – also reporting to Tony Blair, and co-chaired by his close ally, Stephen Byers – concluded that we could reach “the point of no return” in a decade.

Finally, the UK head of Shell, Lord Oxburgh, took time out – just before his company reported record profits mainly achieved by selling oil, one of the main causes of the problem – to warn that unless governments take urgent action there “will be a disaster”.

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research credit to MD – thx

Gravity Measurements Confirm Greenland’s Glaciers Precipitous Meltdown

Friday, October 20th, 2006

– The scary part of this article is towards the end. And I quote:

This study and other GRACE studies published by [others] all agree that there is significant mass wastage of Greenland into the ocean,” notes glaciologist Eric Rignot of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. “None of this has been predicted by numerical models, and therefore all projections of the contribution of Greenland to sea level [rise] are way below reality.“‘

– To get an idea of why this is scary, read about the Thermohaline Circulation here and especially here.  This is definitely an evolving piece of the Perfect Storm.
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Of late, the enormous glaciers that flow down to the sea from the interior of Greenland have been picking up speed. In the last few years, enough ice has come off the northern landmass to sustain the average flow of the Colorado River for six years or fill Lake Mead three times over or cover the state of Maryland in 10 feet of water, assuming it were perfectly flat. And whether it is the glaciers’ weight, speed or volume that is measured, a quickening of the their movement can be detected. In fact, the latest gravity-based measurements show that the glaciers lost roughly 101 gigatons of ice annually between 2003 and 2005, according to a paper published online in Science.

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Scientists shocked as Arctic polar route emerges

Thursday, September 21st, 2006

PARIS (AFP) – European scientists voiced shock as they showed pictures which showed Arctic ice cover had disappeared so much last month that a ship could sail unhindered from Europe’s most northerly outpost to the North Pole itself.

The satellite images were acquired from August 23 to 25 by instruments aboard Envisat and EOS Aqua, two satellites operated by the European Space Agency (ESA).

Perennial sea ice — thick ice that is normally present year-round and is not affected by the Arctic summer — had disappeared over an area bigger than the British Isles, ESA said.

Vast patches of ice-free sea stretched north of Svalbard, an archipelago lying midway between Norway and the North Ple, and extended deep into the Russian Arctic, all the way to the North Pole, the agency said in a press release.

“This situation is unlike anything observed in previous record low-ice seasons,” said Mark Drinkwater of ESA’s Oceans/Ice Unit.

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Top scientist’s fears for climate

Friday, September 8th, 2006

One of America’s top scientists has said that the world has already entered a state of dangerous climate change.

In his first broadcast interview as president of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, John Holdren told the BBC that the climate was changing much faster than predicted.

“We are not talking anymore about what climate models say might happen in the future.

“We are experiencing dangerous human disruption of the global climate and we’re going to experience more,” Professor Holdren said.

He emphasised the seriousness of the melting Greenland ice cap, saying that without drastic action the world would experience more heatwaves, wild fires and floods.

He added that if the current pace of change continued, a catastrophic sea level rise of 4m (13ft) this century was within the realm of possibility; much higher than previous forecasts.

To put this in perspective, Professor Holdren pointed out that the melting of the Greenland ice cap, alone, could increase world-wide sea levels by 7m (23ft), swamping many cities.

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Greenland melt ‘speeding up’

Friday, August 11th, 2006

The meltdown of Greenland’s ice sheet is speeding up, satellite measurements show.

Data from a US space agency (Nasa) satellite show that the melting rate has accelerated since 2004.

If the ice cap were to completely disappear, global sea levels would rise by 6.5m (21 feet).

Most of the ice is being lost from eastern Greenland, a US team writes in Science journal.

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National Review – Snow Job

Friday, July 28th, 2006

The June 5th cover story of the National Review Magazine was entitled, Snow Job – The Truth About the Great overhyped Glacier Melt.

I friend of mine, who knows my political leanings and who reads this blog occasionally, handed me this issue with the gentle advice that I should read this story so I might have more ‘balance‘ in my views and in the things I’m writing both here and in my column.

So I took the magazine home and read the article and mulled it over for a few days wondering what to say about it.

I went through the story and found a number of things that were bogus.

But, before I get into those, I want to make a confession – I am pro-science. It’s the only reliable methodology humanity has come up with so far to get at the truth – unvarnished by our hopes and fears and our illusions. So, for me, when we’re talking about something as important as the climate, which affects all of us regardless of our political persuasions, we should be trading information derived from science. If we’re trading anything else, it is guaranteed to have bullshit and confusion built into it.

The first thing I objected to in the article was the emotional sniping and innuendo. If climate change skeptics believe they have persuasive facts, they should just roll them out and let them stand of their own merit in the hard light of day. Put your science derived facts up against the other fellow’s. Instead, their discussion is laced from end to end with ridicule and contempt and the facts they do present to support their views are very selectively chosen.

They refer to global warming’s ‘supposed’ ills. They claim that Science Magazine, one of the preeminent scientific publications of the world, is prone to hysteria. They say, “We see a photograph of a polar bear standing all by his lonesome at the water’s edge and are told that the poor fellow might drown because the ‘polar ice caps are melting faster than ever.'” Then they tell us that the ice-caps story has been distorted for political aims.

Now that you’ve been alerted, if you look for them, you will find similar ridicule, belittling, and mocking throughout the article. It is emotional perception shaping – it is not facts and reasoning. I guess they haven’t a lot in the way of facts which can stand up to the science they oppose so they are trying blind and awe us with their wit and sarcasm.

Let’s just pick a place and begin. How about that poor polar bear? They ridicule the ‘poor fellow’ but they then conveniently skip over the fact that the arctic ice has been melting and receding further and further each year for 20 years. It isn’t anyone’s pipe dream that polar bears may well go extinct because of this in the next 20 to 50 years. None of this is in the realm of ‘soft’ facts. Science has nailed it cleanly and very few in the main-line science community have any doubts about it. Take another look at the picture of the polar bear – more ridicule replacing facts. He’s got a large stone around his neck – maybe to help drown him?

At another point, they quote an article published by Curt Davis in Science Magazine (same magazine they just ridiculed a moment before) saying that Antarctica is gaining ice not losing it. Google ‘Curt Davis National Review’ on-line. It won’t take but a moment to find articles where he’s complaining that this story has done a major distortion of his research and he’s rather irked about it. You can read about his complaint here: In the section where they are referring to Davis’ research to demonstrate that Antarctica and Greenland are not melting, they manage to not mention the in controversial facts that while global warming has raised the average temperature one degree in most places, it has raised it by four in the high arctic and permafrost is melting for the first time in recorded history in many areas. They ridicule the idea that glaciers are melting in the article’s title but don’t mention that 90% or more of the world’s glaciers are, in fact, melting and melting fast.

They say that there is no consensus that man is the main cause of climate change. That is utterly wrong. The vast majority of reputable peer-reviewed climate scientists have asserted that the issue is settled beyond a doubt.

They cite Richard Lindzen of MIT as a scientific authority figure to bolster their arguments. Well, Lindzen has some ties to Exxon that should be revealed before we rely on his scientific impartiality too much. See this:

Here’s another analysis over at ThinkProgress which picked up on other problems and distortions in this article. Their post is here:

People will, in general, believe what they want to believe and unconsciously seek out those who speak the ‘truth’ they want to hear. The only antidote I know for this form of blindness is to challenge your own beliefs frequently and to base your views on the best science you can find.

The Snow Job article indicated that it thought the reason scientists were trumping up the case for global warming was because there was scientific grant money available to study the issue and if they reported that there was no global warming, those grant funds would dry up.

It sounds perhaps plausible on the surface but think a moment…

Exxon just posted some of the highest profits ever seen in history for a corporation. Most of the climate skeptics are receiving money and support from Exxon or the oil, gas and coal industries. If I had to make a rational choice between believing the men of science or the men paid by the energy industry (and remember these fellows have billions of dollars at stake and those huge profits), I know who I’d believe. And it doesn’t hurt that the fellows I’d believe have science on their side.

– research – thx Deborah for the National Review article