Archive for the ‘Social Breakdown’ Category

In Africa, the Situation has Become Volatile

Sunday, March 30th, 2008

In many countries on the continent the price rise has hit hard, causing protests in Senegal, Burkina Faso and Cameroon.

West Africa,

Special Report.

In the hubbub of Treichville market in the south of Abidjan, Ivory Coast’s economic capital, two friends on greying horses wind between the cages of chickens and stacks of vegetables. By their own description — not really poor and not really middle class either — they confirm how difficult it has become to fill their shopping baskets. “Today, with 10,000 CFA (23 USD), you can feed your family for 3 days. A few months ago, that was enough for a week.” As a result, these two mothers leave out certain products. They no longer buy milk or butter, which have gone from 400 CFA (0.91USD) to nearly 1000 CFA (2.29USD). Some families are only eating one meal a day. “I sometimes skip lunch”, says one of them.

Further on, Mady digs her hand into her sack of Asian rice “I have to sell the kilo at 350 CFA (0.80USD) compared to 250 CFA (0.60USD) a couple of months ago” she explains. It’s the same story with oil, another staple for cooking in Africa. “Last year, I would buy a 200 litre barrel for 100,000 CFA (229USD). Today it costs me 146,000 CFA (335USD)” Nearly a 50% price rise impacting directly on the price of a bottle. “Now, the women are only buying 3 litres instead of the usual 5”.

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Insecure About Climate Change

Friday, March 28th, 2008

By Joshua W. Busby

From the Council on Foreign Relations
Saturday, March 22, 2008; 12:00 AM

When Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans in 2005, Americans witnessed what looked like an overseas humanitarian-relief operation. The storm destroyed much of the city, causing more than $80 billion in damage, killing more than 1,800 people, and displacing in excess of 270,000. The country suddenly had to divert its attention and military resources to respond to a domestic emergency. While scientists do not attribute single events to global warming, the storm gave Americans a visual image of what climate change — which scientists believe will likely exacerbate the severity and number of extreme weather events — might mean for the future.

The large, heavily populated coastal areas of the United States are vulnerable to these kinds of extreme weather events, suggesting homeland security will require readiness against climate change. Moreover, scientists tell us that poor countries in the developing world, particularly in Africa and Asia, are the most vulnerable. They are likely to be hit hardest by climate change, potentially putting hundreds of thousands of people on the move from climate change-related storms, floods and droughts. In such circumstances, outside militaries may be called on to prevent humanitarian tragedies and broader disorder.

A number of recent studies have begun making these kinds of links between climate change and national security. My report for the Council on Foreign Relations goes further, focusing on what should be done in three main areas: risk reduction and adaptation; mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions; and institutional changes in the U.S. government.

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A nuclear ‘who’s on first’

Tuesday, March 25th, 2008

– Sometimes I see juxtapositions of two stories in the news that really capture my attention.

– I saw one such juxtaposition this last week.

– First, I saw a story about our surveillance society in the Seattle Times by Danny Westneat in which he wrote:

…while trying to convince the skeptical audience that the point is to root out terrorists, not fish for wrongdoing among the citizenry, deputy chief Joe Giuliano let loose with a tale straight out of “Dr. Strangelove.”

It turns out the feds have been monitoring Interstate 5 for nuclear “dirty bombs.” They do it with radiation detectors so sensitive it led to the following incident.

“Vehicle goes by at 70 miles per hour,” Giuliano told the crowd. “Agent is in the median, a good 80 feet away from the traffic. Signal went off and identified an isotope [in the passing car].”

The agent raced after the car, pulling it over not far from the monitoring spot (near the Bow-Edison exit, 18 miles south of Bellingham). The agent questioned the driver, then did a cursory search of the car, Giuliano said.

Did he find a nuke?

“Turned out to be a cat with cancer that had undergone a radiological treatment three days earlier.”

– Well, that’s impressive, if perhaps a bit scary.

– But then consider the article out in the April 2008 edition of Scientific American Magazine. It’s entitled, “Detecting Nuclear Smuggling“. From it, I’ve lifted the following excerpts:

Existing radiation portal monitors, as well as new advanced spectroscopic portal machines, cannot reliably detect weapons-grade uranium hidden inside shipping containers. They also set off far too many false alarms.

Twice in recent years the two of us helped an ABC News team that smuggled a soda can–size cylinder of depleted uranium through radiation detectors at U.S. ports. The material did not pose a danger to anyone, but it did emit a radiation signature comparable to that of highly enriched uranium (HEU), which can be assembled into a nuclear bomb.

Homeland Security was not fond of the ABC exercises and asserted publicly that if NRDC’s slug of depleted uranium had been HEU, inspectors would have identified and intercepted it. We disagree. Our analyses show that when even lightly shielded with lead and steel, depleted and highly enriched uranium have similarly weak radiation signals and would be equally hard to detect by either generation of monitor.

According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, 275 confirmed incidents involving nuclear material and criminal intent occurred globally between January 1993 and December 2006. Four involved plutonium, but 14 involved HEU. More than 40 countries harbor HEU, with the highest risk of theft being from facilities in Russia, other former Soviet states and Pakistan. And a recent Harvard University study concluded that U.S.-funded security work had not been completed at 45 percent of nuclear sites of concern in countries once part of the Soviet Union.

– So we can detect a cat whose had a radiation treatment for cancer whizzing by at 70 MPH but we can’t find a good sized chunk of Uranium in a cargo container being shipped into the US from the Middle East?

– It does make you wonder.

Stealth release of major federal study of Gulf Coast climate change transportation impacts

Sunday, March 23rd, 2008

On March 12 the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) and the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) released the assessment report Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure: Gulf Coast Study, Phase 1. This report, 400+ pages long, is a major study of the implications of climate change for Gulf Coast transportation—including roads and highways, transit services, oil and gas pipelines, freight handling ports, transcontinental railroad networks, waterway systems, and airports. Transportation systems and infrastructure are likely to be adversely impacted by climate change, including warmer temperatures and heat waves, changes in precipitation patterns (extreme precipitation events, flooding), sea level rise, increased storm intensity, and damage associated with storm surge. The study talks about how climate change considerations need to be incorporated in transportation planning and investment decisions.

A link to the full report, which was posted on the CCSP Web site at about noon yesterday.

Three hours later DOT issued a pro forma, uninformative, and misleading press release on a different Web site, 3 links away from the report itself. There appears to be no other rollout activity in connection with this major climate change risk assessment-preparedness study. The press release lists only one contact, a press official who is a former Republican congressional staffer. It does not list as contacts any of the lead authors of the report—the individuals with the real expertise to discuss its contents.

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We’re all doomed! 40 years from global catastrophe

Saturday, March 22nd, 2008

The weather forecast for this holiday weekend is wildly unsettled. We had better get used to it.  According to the climate change scientist James Lovelock, this is the beginning of the end of a peaceful phase in evolution.

By 2040, the world population of more than six billion will have been culled by floods, drought and famine.

The people of Southern Europe, as well as South-East Asia, will be fighting their way into countries such as Canada, Australia and Britain.

We will, he says, have to set up encampments in this country, like those established for the hundreds of thousands of refugees displaced by the conflict in East Africa.

Lovelock believes the subsequent ethnic tensions could lead to civil war.

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Army’s $200 Billion Reboot Fizzles; Murtha Wants $20 Billion More

Friday, March 21st, 2008

– This story doesn’t amaze me at all. Having spent most of my career developing software, I’ve long believed that we humans can easily conceive of projects too complex for us to manifest. The first one I personally recall was the FAA’s project to reinvent the air traffic control system in the late 70’s. It crashed and burned amazingly.

– From my POV, a lot of the the problem is that too many people in the industry place their faith in software development methodologies and seem to forget that at each point in the process, a bright human being has be able to see, think through and understand everything important at that level.

– Well I remember having software development methodologies imposed on me at Motorola back in 2000 & 2001. It got so one couldn’t make a small and obvious change to three lines of code without calling three other engineers to a 30 minute meeting and talking about the change and then filling out a lot of paperwork. To me, it began to seem like fulfilling the requirements of the process began to be more important than making smart, robust and reliable software.  It got easier and easier to lose the big picture as more and more cover-their-ass methodology was layered on.

– These folks seemed to believe that you could take a lot of mediocre programmers and force them through the procedure and out the other end would come high quality software. I think they also liked the idea because it promised to reduce the corporation’s dependence on bright key programmers. With the methodology in place, they believed that programmers would just become pluggable widgets and could be obtained and let go as needed with impunity.

– Yeah right!   We’ll let the results speak for themselves.

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The Army’s gargantuan digital modernization plan has turned so rotten, a new congressional report says it’s time to start thinking about killing off the effort, and looking for new alternatives. Rep. John Murtha (D-Pennsylvania), the powerful head of the House Appropriations defense subcommittee, has another plan: Pump another $20 billion into the sickly, $200 billion behemoth “Future Combat Systems” before it drops dead under its own weight.

Future Combat Systems, or FCS, is the Army’s effort to use software and computer networks to turn itself into a quicker, lighter, more-lethal force by 2017. The vision is for fleets of new armored vehicles, ground robots and flying drones to be linked together by a wireless internet for combat, and by a common operating system. But FCS has been in trouble, almost since the day it began, with slipped deadlines, bloated budgets, unproven technologies and unrealistic expectations.

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Carbon Output Must Near Zero To Avert Danger, New Studies Say

Sunday, March 16th, 2008

– This quote, from the article referenced below, is at the core of Perfect Storm concerns:

Although many nations have been pledging steps to curb emissions for nearly a decade, the world’s output of carbon from human activities totals about 10 billion tons a year and has been steadily rising.

— — — — — — —

The task of cutting greenhouse gas emissions enough to avert a dangerous rise in global temperatures may be far more difficult than previous research suggested, say scientists who have just published studies indicating that it would require the world to cease carbon emissions altogether within a matter of decades.

Their findings, published in separate journals over the past few weeks, suggest that both industrialized and developing nations must wean themselves off fossil fuels by as early as mid-century in order to prevent warming that could change precipitation patterns and dry up sources of water worldwide.

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US Stands To Lose A Generation Of Young Researchers

Saturday, March 15th, 2008

– I’ve written before about this here: , and . 

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Five consecutive years of flat funding the budget of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) is deterring promising young researchers and threatening the future of Americans’ health, a group of seven preeminent academic research institutions have warned. In a new report released here, the group of concerned institutions (six research universities and a major teaching hospital) described the toll that cumulative stagnant NIH funding is taking on the American medical research enterprise. And the leading institutions warned that if NIH does not get consistent and robust support in the future, the nation will lose a generation of young investigators to other careers and other countries and, with them, a generation of promising research that could cure disease for millions for whom no cure currently exists.

The report, “A Broken Pipeline” Flat Funding of the NIH Puts a Generation of Science at Risk,” was co-authored by Brown University, Duke University, Harvard University, The Ohio State University, Partners Healthcare, the University of California Los Angeles, and Vanderbilt University.

It profiles 12 junior researchers from institutions across the country who, despite their exceptional qualifications and noteworthy research, attest to the funding difficulties that they and their professional peers are experiencing. These researchers are devising new ways to manipulate stem cells to repair the heart, revealing critical pathways involved in cancer and brain diseases, and using new technologies to diagnose and treat kidney disease.

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Global Warming to Affect U.S. Transport

Saturday, March 15th, 2008

Flooded roads and subways, deformed railroad tracks, and weakened bridges may be the wave of the future with continuing warming, a new study says.

Climate change will affect every type of transportation through rising sea levels, increased rainfall, and surges from more intense storms, the National Research Council said in a report released Tuesday.

Complicating matters, people continue to move into coastal areas, creating the need for more roads and services in the most vulnerable regions, the report noted.

“The time has come for transportation professionals to acknowledge and confront the challenges posed by climate change and to incorporate the most current scientific knowledge into the planning of transportation systems,” said Henry Schwartz Jr., past president and chairman of the engineering firm Sverdrup/Jacobs Civil Inc., and chairman of the committee that wrote the report.

Five Major Threats

The report cites five major areas of growing threat:

More heat waves, requiring load limits at hot-weather or high-altitude airports and causing thermal expansion of bridge joints and rail track deformities.

(Related story: Global Warming Likely Causing More Heat Waves, Scientists Say [August 1, 2006])

Rising sea levels and storm surges flooding coastal roadways, forcing evacuations, inundating airports and rail lines, flooding tunnels, and eroding bridge bases.

(Related story: Rising Seas Threaten China’s Sinking Coastal Cities [January 17, 2008])

More rainstorms delaying air and ground traffic, flooding tunnels and railways, and eroding road, bridge < recent (see>, and pipeline supports.

More frequent strong hurricanes, disrupting air and shipping service, blowing debris onto roads, and damaging buildings.

Rising arctic temperatures thawing permafrost, resulting in road, railway, and airport runway subsidence and potential pipeline failures.

(Related story: Arctic Summers Ice Free by 2040, Study Predicts [December 12, 2006])

System Not Built for Change

The nation’s transportation system was built for local conditions based on historical weather data, but those data may no longer be reliable in the face of new weather extremes, the report warns.

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The EPA’s tailspin

Saturday, March 15th, 2008

– This is an editorial from Nature Magazine; one of the world’s preeminent magazines about science and for scientists.

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The director of the Environmental Protection Agency is sabotaging both himself and his agency.

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is fast losing the few shreds of credibility it has left. The Bush administration has always shown more zeal in protecting business interests than the environment (see Nature 447, 892–893; 2007). But the agency’s current administrator, Stephen Johnson, a veteran EPA toxicologist who was promoted to the top slot in 2005, has done so with reckless disregard for law, science or the agency’s own rules — or, it seems, the anguished protests of his own subordinates.

On 27 February, to take the first of two examples that surfaced last week, Senator Barbara Boxer (Democrat, California) used a routine budget hearing to give Johnson a grilling. Why hadn’t he given her state permission to regulate the carbon dioxide emissions of vehicle exhausts? California needs a waiver from the EPA to regulate in this way, and in the past such waivers have been granted easily. And, Boxer reminded him via a series of leaked memos and PowerPoint presentations, Johnson’s own top-level staff begged him to sign the waiver in this case. “This is a choice only you can make,” one colleague wrote to him. “But I ask you to think about the history and the future of the agency in making it. If you are asked to deny this waiver, I fear the credibility of the agency that we both love will be irreparably damaged.”

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