Archive for the ‘Social Breakdown’ Category

The Stuff Sam Nunn’s Nightmares Are Made Of

Sunday, February 25th, 2007

By now we can too readily imagine the horror of terrorists exploding a nuclear weapon in a major American city: the gutted skyscrapers, the melted cars, the charred bodies. For Sam Nunn, however, a new terror begins the day after. That’s when the world asks whether another bomb is out there. “If a nuclear bomb went off in Moscow or New York City or Jerusalem, any number of groups would claim they have another”, Nunn told me recently. These groups would make steep demands as intelligence officials scrambled to determine which claims were real. Panic would prevail. Even after the detonation of a small, crude weapon that inflicted less damage than the bomb at Hiroshima, Nunn suggested, “The psychological damage would be incalculable. It would be a slow, step-by-step process to regain confidence. And the question will be, Why didn’t we take steps to prevent this? We will have a whole list of things we wish we’d done.“

Nunn thinks of those things every time he picks up a newspaper. When, for instance, he reads about the arrest of a Russian man who, in a sting operation, tried to sell weapons-grade uranium – a reminder of a possible black market in nuclear materials and of the poor security at facilities in the former Soviet Union. Or when he sees news about Iran’s efforts to build a nuclear bomb, which could set off a wave of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East and thus significantly raise the possibility that terrorists will someday acquire a bomb. And despite the apparent diplomatic breakthrough with North Korea earlier this month, in which the North Koreans agreed to begin dismantling their nuclear facilities in return for fuel and other aid, Nunn, who finds the deal encouraging, remains concerned since North Korea’s unpredictable, cash-starved dictatorship still retains perhaps half a dozen nuclear bombs, and the ingredients to make more.

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– This article is from the NY Times and they insist that folks have an ID and a PW in order to read their stuff. You can get these for free just by signing up. However, recently, a friend of mine suggested the website bugmenot.com :arrow: as an alternative to having to do these annoying sign ups. Check it out. Thx Bruce S. for the tip.

– Research thx to Tony B.

Russia Plans New ICBMs, Nuclear Subs

Wednesday, February 7th, 2007

– The big patterns are what’s important. The world’s major powers have quietly recognized that without oil or a viable replacment for it, their engines of economic prosperity and their political and military powers are going to gradually diminsh and then disappear. Japan’s a great example. Something like 90% or more of the country’s oil is imported. What will the economic miracle of Japan do if the oil tap begins to run dry? Go back to medevil farming? Not likely. No, the US, Japan, China, Russia, the EU and a host of others are quietly but intensly thinking about how to position themselves to either gain acess to oil, hang onto the oil they have or align themselves with someone who has it or can get it. As oil gets scarce and our dependence on it remains intractable, there’s going to be no other game in town, folks.

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MOSCOW (AP) — Russia’s defense minister on Wednesday laid out an ambitious plan for building new intercontinental ballistic missiles, nuclear submarines and possibly aircraft carriers, and set the goal of exceeding the Soviet army in combat readiness.

Sergei Ivanov’s statements appeared aimed at raising his profile at home ahead of the 2008 election in which he is widely seen as a potential contender to succeed President Vladimir Putin. But they also seemed to reflect a growing chill in Russian-U.S. relations and the Kremlin’s concern about U.S. missile defense plans.

Ivanov told parliament the military would get 17 new ballistic missiles this year – a drastic increase over the average of four deployed annually in recent years. The purchases are part of a weapons modernization program for 2007-2015 worth about $190 billion.

The plan envisages the deployment of 34 new silo-based Topol-M missiles and control units, as well as an additional 50 such missiles mounted on mobile launchers by 2015; Russia so far has deployed more than 40 silo-based Topol-Ms.

Putin and other officials have described the Topol-M as a bulwark of Russia’s nuclear might for years to come, and said it can penetrate any prospective missile defenses. Last week, Putin dismissed U.S. claims that missile defense sites Washington hopes to establish in Poland and the Czech Republic were intended to counter threats from Iran, and said Russia would respond by developing more efficient weapons systems.

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Russian smuggled nuclear-bomb uranium, officials say

Saturday, January 27th, 2007

– This was about 3.5 ounces of 90% enriched Uranium (bomb grade). Sources tell us that 33 to 40 pounds is enough for an atomic weapon. According to an IAEA database, there have been 16 previous confirmed cases that either highly enriched uranium or plutonium have been recovered by authorities since 1993. In most cases the recoveries have involved smaller quantities than the Tbilisi case. But in 1994, 6 pounds of highly enriched uranium intended for sale were seized by police in the Czech Republic.

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WASHINGTON (AP) — Republic of Georgia authorities, aided by the CIA, set up a sting operation last summer that led to the arrest of a Russian man who tried to sell a small amount of nuclear-bomb grade uranium in a plastic bag in his jacket pocket, U.S. and Georgian officials said.

The operation, which neither government has publicized, represents one of the most serious cases of smuggling of nuclear material in recent years, according to analysts and officials.

The arrest underscored concerns about the possibility of terrorists acquiring nuclear bomb-making material on the black market, although there was no suggestion that this particular case was terrorist-related.

“Given the serious consequences of the detonation of an improvised nuclear explosive device, even small numbers of incidents involving HEU (highly enriched uranium) or plutonium are of very high concern,” said Melissa Fleming of the U.N.’s International Atomic Energy Agency.

Details of the investigation, which also involved the FBI and Energy Department, were provided to The Associated Press by U.S. officials and Georgian Interior Minister Vano Merabishvili.

Authorities say they do not know how the man acquired the nuclear material or if his claims of access to much larger quantities were true. He and three Georgian accomplices are in Georgian custody and not cooperating with investigators.

Georgian attempts to trace the nuclear material since the arrest and confirm whether the man indeed had access to larger quantities have foundered from a lack of cooperation from Russia.

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– This 2nd link is from the NY Times and they insist that folks have an ID and a PW in order to read their stuff. You can get these for free just by signing up. However, recently, a friend of mine suggested the website bugmenot.com :arrow: as an alternative to having to do these annoying sign ups. Check it out. Thx Bruce S. for the tip.

Climate change: it’s coming our way …

Sunday, January 21st, 2007

Global warming will have a far more destructive and earlier impact than previously estimated.

A draft of the most authoritative report yet produced on climate change, the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, shows the frequency of devastating storms will increase dramatically.

Sea levels will rise over the century by about half a metre; snow will disappear from all but the highest mountains; deserts will spread; oceans will become acidic, leading to the destruction of coral reefs and atolls; and deadly heatwaves will become more prevalent.

The impact will be catastrophic, forcing hundreds of millions to flee their homelands, particularly in tropical, low-lying areas, while creating waves of immigrants whose movements will strain the economies of even the most affluent countries.

The really chilling thing about the report is that it is the work of several thousand climate experts with widely differing views on how greenhouse gases will have their effect. Some think they will have a major impact, others a lesser. Each paragraph was therefore argued over and scrutinised intensely. Only points that were considered indisputable survived.

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Radicals vs. moderates: British Muslims at crossroads

Friday, January 19th, 2007

DUBLIN, Ireland (CNN) — At a recent debate over the battle for Islamic ideals in England, a British-born Muslim stood before the crowd and said Prophet Mohammed’s message to nonbelievers is: “I come to slaughter all of you.”

“We are the Muslims,” said Omar Brooks, an extremist also known as Abu Izzadeen. “We drink the blood of the enemy, and we can face them anywhere. That is Islam and that is jihad.”

Anjem Choudary, the public face of Islamist extremism in Britain, added that Muslims have no choice but to take the fight to the West.

“What are Muslims supposed to do when they are being killed in the streets in Afghanistan and Baghdad and Palestine? Do they not have the same rights to defend themselves? In war, people die. People don’t make love; they kill each other,” he said. (Audio slide show: Preying on Britain’s young Muslims)

But in the same debate, held on the prestigious grounds of Dublin’s Trinity College in October, many people in the crowd objected.

“These people, ladies and gentleman, have a good look at them. They actually believe if you kill women and children, you will go to heaven,” said one young Muslim who waved his finger at the radicals.

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Fury at Australia cleric comments

Friday, January 19th, 2007

– Two stories out recently about radial statements being made by Muslim clerics point up a growing and critical problem. As we continue to fill the world, our cultures and religions are pressing against each other with ever more pressure. This is a volatile situation that grows ever more dangerous. Our cultures and religions need to be ever more tolerant of each other if we are to avoid disaster as we try to muddle our way through the coming historical bottlenecks.

– Stories, like the following, are clear calls for moderate Muslims to control the statements of their more radical brethren. Indeed, be it Muslim, Christian or any religion, I would advocate the same.

– To get the drift of why a story like this might incense Australians so badly, consider that they are 20 million and they are just south of Indonesia, which is the most populous Muslim country in the world – and a very poor one, besides. Consider a statement like the following: “Muslim Australians had more rights to the country than white Australians whose ancestors arrived as convicts.

– Below, is the first of the two stories. The next can be found in the next post here.

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The Australian government has condemned a Muslim cleric for making offensive comments in videotaped lectures.

Sheikh Feiz Mohammed, head of the Global Islamic Youth Centre in Sydney, urged children to become martyrs for Islam and mocked Jewish people as pigs.

Police are said to be investigating the tapes, which were exposed in a British TV documentary earlier this week.

Top Australian Islamic cleric Sheikh Hilali also sparked controversy, with remarks on women and white Australians.

Sheikh Feiz Mohammed, who has spent the past year living in Lebanon, talks on the controversial videotapes of his desire for children to be offered “as soldiers defending Islam”.

“Teach them this,” he says, “that there is nothing more beloved to me than wanting to die as a Muhajid.

“Put in their soft, tender heart the zeal of jihad and the love of martyrdom.”

He also ridicules Jewish people as pigs and makes snorting noises, saying they will go to hell.

His comments were shown on a British television documentary called Undercover Mosque, which says it found children selling Islamic tapes in a car park behind a UK mosque.

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DIRE WARNINGS FROM CHINA’S FIRST CLIMATE CHANGE REPORT

Thursday, December 28th, 2006

– Someone once commented that few people will just lie down and starve quietly.China’s ability to feed itself is near an edge and it shows no signs of reigning in the population’s dreams of western style affluence.  Its water tables are falling and temperatures are rising. When the food does run short, it will uncork its vast coffers of trade-surplus money and wade into the international food markets to buy food to stave off social instability at home and this, in turn, will drive food prices beyond the reach of many in marginal nations and global stability will be well on its way down the slippery slope.

– China is a coming global train wreck, powering into the dead-end alley of more growth and more consumption with the pedal to the metal and this report is merely a small note someone tossed off the train as it passed.

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BEIJING (AFP) Temperatures in China will rise significantly in coming decades and water shortages will worsen, state media has reported, citing the government’s first national assessment of global climate change.

Greenhouse gases released due to human activity are leading to ever more serious problems in terms of climate change,” the Ministry of Science and Technology said in a statement.

Global climate change has an impact on the nation’s ability to develop further,” said the ministry, one of 12 government departments that prepared the report.

In just over a decade, global warming will start to be felt in the world’s most populous country, and it will get warmer yet over the next two or three generations.

Compared with 2000, the average temperatures will increase by between 1.3 and 2.1 degrees Celsius by 2020, the China News Service reported, citing the assessment.

By the middle of the century, the annual average temperature in China will rise by as much as 3.3 degrees Celsius (more than five degrees Fahrenheit), and by 2100 it could soar by as much as six degrees Celsius, according to the news service.

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New crops needed to avoid famines

Tuesday, December 5th, 2006

– It seems that everywhere one turns, there is a story like this about failing fisheries, dying forests, or plunging water tables. Each story is full of alarming statistics and dire predictions. If it was just a one-off story, we could dismiss it as some drama-queen’s moment in the media spotlight – but it isn’t. It is, rather, like the increasing drum of rain on the roof as the storm builds. It grows louder and the predictions more dire, but at the same time, the human tendency to acclimate to new situations and to desensitize to stimuli previously presented, dulls most of us to the rising urgency.

– Most of us turn away after seeing yet another story with many of the same features as the previous one and we seek, instead, for the next pseudo-adrenalin fix from the ever more extreme offerings of the mass media or from the acquisition of our next ‘gotta-have-it’ physical toy.

– Rome is burning – marginalized to the back pages of section three overshadowed by the fact that Britney’s not wearing underwear these days.

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By Richard Black
Environment correspondent, BBC News website

The global network of agricultural research centres warns that famines lie ahead unless new crop strains adapted to a warmer future are developed.

The Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) says yields of existing varieties will fall.

New forecasts say warming will shrink South Asia’s wheat area by half.

CGIAR is announcing plans to accelerate efforts aimed at developing new strains of staple crops including maize, wheat, rice and sorghum.

At the network’s annual meeting in Washington, scientists will also report on measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from farmland.CGIAR links 15 non-profit research institutes around the world working mainly on agriculture in developing countries and the tropics.

“We’re talking about a major challenge here,” said Louis Verchot of the World Agroforestry Centre (Icraf) in Kenya, a member institute of CGIAR.

“We’re talking about challenges that have to be dealt with at every level, from ideas about social justice to the technology of food production,” he told the BBC News website.

“We’re talking about large scale human migration and the return to large-scale famines in developing countries, something which we decided 40 or 50 years ago was unacceptable and did something about.”

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Climate water threat to millions

Friday, October 20th, 2006

-I’ve written about the coming water problems here.

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Climate change threatens supplies of water for millions of people in poorer countries, warns a new report from the Christian development agency Tearfund.

Recent research suggests that by 2050, five times as much land is likely to be under “extreme” drought as now.

Tearfund wants richer states to look at helping poorer ones adjust to drought at next month’s UN climate summit.

This week the UK’s climate minister said he is confident of reaching an deal on adaptation funds at the talks.

There is an “urgent need” for such measures, Ian Pearson told a parliamentary committee.

The Tearfund report, Feeling the Heat, urges donors to ramp up assistance quickly. Other charities are likely to make similar pleas in the run-up to the Nairobi summit, which begins on 6 November.

Citing research by the Oxford academic Norman Myers, Tearfund suggests there will be as many as 200 million climate refugees by 2050.

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India Digs Deeper, but Wells Are Drying Up, and a Farming Crisis Looms

Saturday, September 30th, 2006

This problem extends further than just the Indian Subcontinent. Globally, important water tables are falling and mountain winter snow packs are deminishing. And these water supplies are the life blood for millions and millions of people.  The future is coming upon us like a train but few seem to hear the whistle and the roar of it yet.

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TEJA KA BAS, India – Bhanwar Lal Yadav, once a cultivator of cucumber and wheat, has all but given up growing food. No more suffering through drought and the scourge of antelope that would destroy what little would survive on his fields.

Today he has reinvented himself as a vendor of what counts here as the most precious of commodities: the water under his land.

Each year he bores ever deeper. His well now reaches 130 feet down. Four times a day he starts up his electric pumps. The water that gurgles up, he sells to the local government — 13,000 gallons a day. What is left, he sells to thirsty neighbors. He reaps handsomely, and he plans to continue for as long as it lasts.

“However long it runs, it runs,” he said. “We know we will all be ultimately doomed.”

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– this article is from the NY Times.  They require you to register to read their stuff but registration is free and easy.