Archive for the ‘Water Shortages’ Category

Climate change’s most deadly threat: drought

Thursday, March 13th, 2008

Anthropologist Brian Fagan uses Earth’s distant past to predict the crises that may lie in its future.

Spring is on its way back to northern latitudes. In many locales, it will arrive earlier than “normal,” yielding, ostensibly, a longer growing season, a hotter summer, balmier autumn, and future winters will lack their ferocious post-Pleistocene bites.

While vineyards are being planned for northern England, millions of residents around desiccated Atlanta are praying for enough rain to flow through their taps.

Brian Fagan believes climate is not merely a backdrop to the ongoing drama of human civilization, but an important stage upon which world events turn.

As it turns out, the anecdotal evidence of climate change in this, the 21st century, shares much in common with a historical antecedent, the Medieval Warm Period, circa AD 800 to 1200, that radically shaped societies across the globe.

The Medieval Warm Period was a time when the capacity of agriculture rapidly expanded and enabled people to flourish in Europe. Yet elsewhere, extended lack of rainfall, or too much of it, brought famine, plagues, and wars.

This bout of global warming was followed by the Little Ice Age that lasted roughly from AD 1300 until the middle of the 19th century and cast Europe and North America back into a big chill. Since then, mean global temperature has been slowly and steadily rising, accompanied by huge leaps in agricultural output and skyrocketing human population.

Today, climate experts tell us that over the past two decades, temperature has registered an alarming unnatural spike and is expected to keep climbing.

Despite the well-established fact that Earth is heating up, skeptics still are trying to poke holes in the assertion that it is owed to humans pumping more CO2 into the atmosphere. Climate change is, and always has been cyclical, they say. Or maybe, some insist, it is God who has his hand on the thermostat.

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React to Warming Now While Costs Still Low, OECD Urges

Thursday, March 6th, 2008

The world must respond to climate change and other environmental challenges now while the cost is low or else pay a stiffer price later for its indecision, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said Wednesday.

A new report by the 30-nation organization looks at “red light issues” in the environment, including global warming, water shortages, energy, biodiversity loss, transportation, agriculture, and fisheries.

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Western U.S. Faces Drought Crisis, Warming Study Says

Saturday, February 2nd, 2008

The U.S. West will see devastating droughts as global warming reduces the amount of mountain snow and causes the snow that does fall to melt earlier in the year, a new study says.

By storing moisture in the form of snow, mountains act as huge natural reservoirs, releasing water into rivers long into the summer dry season.

“We’re losing that reservoir,” said research leader Tim Barnett, an oceanographer and climate researcher at the University of California, San Diego.

“Spring runoff is getting earlier and earlier in the year, so you have to let water go over the dams into the ocean.”

Summers are also becoming hotter and longer. “That dries things out more and leads to fires,” Barnett added.

“Our results are not good news for those living in the western United States,” the scientists write in their report, which appears in today’s online edition of the journal Science.

Unnatural Changes

Barnett and his team used computer models to study water flow in Western rivers over the past 50 years.

The researchers found that the changes currently affecting the U.S. West have less than a one percent chance of being due to natural variability, Barnett told National Geographic News.

His team verified that by running a variety of control tests under pre-industrial conditions that mimicked known natural cycles.

(Related: “Ancient “Megadroughts” Struck U.S. West, Could Happen Again, Study Suggests” [May 24, 2007].)

What’s been occurring recently, he said, is different from natural variability and is driven by the buildup of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere.

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Brazil Amazon deforestation soars

Saturday, January 26th, 2008

– I don’t know why folks have a hard time getting the point of The Perfect Storm Hypothesis. This story is a perfect example of the interdependencies the hypothesis talks about.

– Over population and poverty drives people to settle in forested land – clearing it as they go. World food shortages drive growers to grow food where previous trees stood. Less trees mean less water retention which dries the remaining forest making it less resilient. Less forest means less CO2 uptake. More CO2 in the atmosphere leads to warmer weather. Warmer weather means less winter snow pack. Less winter snow pack means less summer water. Less summer water means less ability to grow food using ‘wet agricultural methods’. Less food grown means more pressure to cut the forests to grow the food where they stood. Societies deeply dependent on diminishing oil resources and now trying to avoid the fact by promoting biofuel growing and use. Biofuels, the growth of which, takes the same fields we used to grow human food on. And as a result, we have less food and need more room to grow it and we all turn again to the land the forest stand upon.

– And around and around it goes in branching causal relationships and positive feedback cycles. And behind it all, human greed, ignorance, rapaciousness and leaders who talk but do not act. Leaders who see the truth but do not believe.

= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =

The Brazilian government has announced a huge rise in the rate of Amazon deforestation, months after celebrating its success in achieving a reduction.

In the last five months of 2007, 3,235 sq km (1,250 sq miles) were lost.

Gilberto Camara, of INPE, an institute that provides satellite imaging of the area, said the rate of loss was unprecedented for the time of year.

Officials say rising commodity prices are encouraging farmers to clear more land to plant crops such as soya.

The monthly rate of deforestation saw a big rise from 243 sq km (94 sq miles) in August to 948 sq km (366 sq miles) in December.

“We’ve never before detected such a high deforestation rate at this time of year,” Mr Camara said.

His concern, outlined during a news conference in Brasilia on Wednesday, was echoed by Environment Minister Marina Silva.

Expensive soya

Ms Silva said rising prices of raw materials and commodities could be spurring the rate of forest clearing, as more and more farmers saw the Amazon as a source of cheap land.

“The economic reality of these states indicate that these activities impact, without a shadow of a doubt, on the forest,” she said.

The state of Mato Grosso was the worst affected, contributing more than half the total area of forest stripped, or 1,786 sq km (700 sq miles).

The states of Para and Rondonia were also badly affected, accounting for 17.8% and 16% of the total cleared respectively.

The situation may also be worse than reported, with the environment ministry saying the preliminary assessment of the amount of forest cleared could double as more detailed satellite images are analysed.

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is due to attend an emergency meeting on Thursday to discuss new measures to tackle deforestation in the Amazon.

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Dry, polluted, plagued by rats: the crisis in China’s greatest river

Thursday, January 24th, 2008

Ships stranded as Yangtze reaches a 142-year low

The waters of the Yangtze have fallen to their lowest levels since 1866, disrupting drinking supplies, stranding ships and posing a threat to some of the world’s most endangered species.

Asia’s longest river is losing volume as a result of a prolonged dry spell, the state media warned yesterday, predicting hefty economic losses and a possible plague of rats on nearby farmland.

News of the drought – which is likely to worsen pollution in the river – comes amid dire reports about the impact of rapid economic growth on China’s environment.

The government also revealed yesterday that the country’s most prosperous province, Guangdong, has just had its worst year of smog since the Communist party took power in 1949, while 56,000 square miles of coastline waters failed to meet environmental standards.

But the immediate concern is the Yangtze, which supplies water to hundreds of millions of people and thousands of factories in a delta that accounts for more than 40% of China’s economic output. According to the Chinese media, precipitation and water levels are at or near record lows in its middle and upper stretches.

The scale of the problem was revealed by the Yangtze water resources commission in a report on the Xinhua news agency’s website yesterday. It said that the Hankou hydrological centre near Wuhan city found the river’s depth had fallen to its lowest level in 142 years.

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Rising Seas Threaten China’s Sinking Coastal Cities

Friday, January 18th, 2008

Sea levels off Shanghai and other Chinese coastal cities are rising at an alarming rate, leading to contamination of drinking water supplies and other threats, China’s State Oceanic Administration reported Thursday.

Waters off the industrial port city of Tianjin, 60 miles (100 kilometers) southeast of Beijing, rose by 7.72 inches (20 centimeters) over the past three decades, the administration said.

Seas off the business hub of Shanghai have risen by 4.53 inches (11.5 centimeters) over the same period, the report said.

Administration experts said global climate change and the sinking of coastal land due to the pumping of ground water were the major causes behind rising water levels.

Salt in the Aquifer

“Sea level rises worldwide cannot be reversed, so Chinese city officials and planners must take measures to adapt to the change,” Chen Manchun, an administration researcher, was quoted as saying on the central government’s official web site.

Globally rising seas threaten to submerge low-lying island groups, erode coastlines, and force the construction of vast new levees. Scientists have warned that melting of the vast glaciers of Greenland will cause a significant rise in sea levels.

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Worries About Water as Chinese Glacier Retreats

Tuesday, December 18th, 2007

The Tibetan plateau has been called “the roof of the world” and “the third pole” for its ice-covered peaks. There, global warming is happening faster than at other, lower altitudes, with serious consequences for hundreds of millions of people.

China’s lowest glacier, the Mingyong glacier — an enormous, dirty, craggy mass of ice wedged in a mountain valley 8,900 feet above sea level — is melting. And as it melts, the glacier on the edge of the Tibetan plateau is retreating up the mountain faster than experts can believe.

“It’s truly amazing how much it’s traveled,” says Barry Baker of The Nature Conservancy, part of a team of international scientists who recently visited the shrinking glacier. “It is just unbelievable.”

Baker has been tracking the glacier’s retreat for the past five years. He is flabbergasted by the difference since his last visit two years ago.

“The change is actually really remarkable,” he says. “The glacier looks like it’s gone back up the valley at least 300 feet in just the last two years.”

An Astonishing Increase

Baker says the rate of retreat is increasing quickly.

“When we first started observing this glacier, it was retreating at about 80 feet per year, and now it looks like it’s doubled,” he says.

To explain the change, he cites an increase in temperatures.

“We’ve seen just in this area about a 2.2 degree increase in temperature just in the last 20 years. And it’s interesting because it seems like, from the climate data that we’ve been studying, that this region is warming faster than some of the other parts of China. In fact, from the data that we have, this particular region is warming almost twice as fast as China,” he says.

The scientists must scramble over the rocky debris, known as the moraine — left behind after the ice has melted — to move closer to the snout, or lower end, of the glacier. Studying this ice mass is extremely difficult because local Tibetans see it as a sacred glacier, and they have banned people from touching or stepping on the ice. That rules out normal scientific practices like removing ice cores and sinking stakes in the ice to measure its retreat.

The scientists have to depend on GPS measurements and repeat photography. In this, they are lucky — because explorer Frank Kingdon-Ward snapped pictures of the glacier as early as 1913. Anecdotal evidence indicates the glacier has retreated 1 1/2 miles since the late 1800s, when its tongue was close to Mingyong village.

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US generals urge climate action

Sunday, April 15th, 2007

Former US military leaders have called on the Bush administration to make major cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.

In a report, they say global warming poses a serious threat to national security, as the US could be drawn into wars over water and other conflicts.

They appear to criticise President George W Bush’s refusal to join an international treaty to cut emissions.

Among the 11 authors are ex-Army chief of staff Gordon Sullivan and Mr Bush’s ex-Mid-East peace envoy Anthony Zinni.

The report says the US “must become a more constructive partner” with other nations to fight global warming and deal with its consequences.

It warns that over the next 30 to 40 years, there will be conflicts over water resources, as well as increased instability resulting from rising sea levels and global warming-related refugees.

“The chaos that results can be an incubator of civil strife, genocide and the growth of terrorism,” the 35-page report predicts.

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also

the report, itself, will be released here on April 16th.

New Zealand and Climate Change

Thursday, April 12th, 2007

– As many of you doubtless know, I have a sweet spot in my heart for New Zealand so I follow their news quite closely. Even though they are off at the ends of the Earth, they are not immune to the coming climate changes. Witness this small collection of articles.

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– Ratepayers face big bills to fight climate change

– Climate change report: Act now, or face flood and fire

– NZ faces ‘climate refugees’ as seas rise

– Climate change set to erode house values

– Meltdown for Franz Josef Glacier

U.S. Southwest Drought Could Be Start of New Dust Bowl

Monday, April 9th, 2007

The unprecedented drought that has gripped the southwestern United States isn’t almost over, researchers say, it may have only just begun.

That’s the consensus of all but 1 of the 19 climate models used as the basis for this week’s upcoming report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), according to a new analysis.

Richard Seager, a senior research scientist with the Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, and co-authors report their findings today in the online advance version of the journal Science.

Based on the climate models, the U.S. Southwest and parts of northern Mexico could become as arid as the North American Dust Bowl conditions of the 1930s, the study authors report.

“If these models are correct, the levels of aridity of the recent multiyear drought [will] become the new climatology of the American Southwest,” the team writes.

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