The Rise of the Rest

July 27th, 2008

– Sometimes, in spite of our best efforts to gain a global focus, we can get too caught up in, and too influenced by, the view from our home country.

– After reading the excerpt from Zakaria’s book, The Post American World, below, I have to admit I may have this problem.

– My view of the world and its problems is much too U.S. centric and there’s an entire other way of looking that things that I’ve been missing.

– I encourage you to read the excerpt from Zakaria’s book, below, and to share your thoughts on it.

– Here is also a review of the book:

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It’s true China is booming, Russia is growing more assertive, terrorism is a threat. But if America is losing the ability to dictate to this new world, it has not lost the ability to lead.

by Fareed Zakaria

Americans are glum at the moment. No, I mean really glum. In April, a new poll revealed that 81 percent of the American people believe that the country is on the “wrong track.” In the 25 years that pollsters have asked this question, last month’s response was by far the most negative. Other polls, asking similar questions, found levels of gloom that were even more alarming, often at 30- and 40-year highs. There are reasons to be pessimistic—a financial panic and looming recession, a seemingly endless war in Iraq, and the ongoing threat of terrorism. But the facts on the ground—unemployment numbers, foreclosure rates, deaths from terror attacks—are simply not dire enough to explain the present atmosphere of malaise.

American anxiety springs from something much deeper, a sense that large and disruptive forces are coursing through the world. In almost every industry, in every aspect of life, it feels like the patterns of the past are being scrambled. “Whirl is king, having driven out Zeus,” wrote Aristophanes 2,400 years ago. And—for the first time in living memory—the United States does not seem to be leading the charge. Americans see that a new world is coming into being, but fear it is one being shaped in distant lands and by foreign people.

Look around. The world’s tallest building is in Taipei, and will soon be in Dubai. Its largest publicly traded company is in Beijing. Its biggest refinery is being constructed in India. Its largest passenger airplane is built in Europe. The largest investment fund on the planet is in Abu Dhabi; the biggest movie industry is Bollywood, not Hollywood. Once quintessentially American icons have been usurped by the natives. The largest Ferris wheel is in Singapore. The largest casino is in Macao, which overtook Las Vegas in gambling revenues last year. America no longer dominates even its favorite sport, shopping. The Mall of America in Minnesota once boasted that it was the largest shopping mall in the world. Today it wouldn’t make the top ten. In the most recent rankings, only two of the world’s ten richest people are American. These lists are arbitrary and a bit silly, but consider that only ten years ago, the United States would have serenely topped almost every one of these categories.

These factoids reflect a seismic shift in power and attitudes. It is one that I sense when I travel around the world. In America, we are still debating the nature and extent of anti-Americanism. One side says that the problem is real and worrying and that we must woo the world back. The other says this is the inevitable price of power and that many of these countries are envious—and vaguely French—so we can safely ignore their griping. But while we argue over why they hate us, “they” have moved on, and are now far more interested in other, more dynamic parts of the globe. The world has shifted from anti-Americanism to post-Americanism.

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– Research thanks to John P.

– This book review is from the NY Times and they insist that folks have an ID and a PW in order to read their stuff. You can get these for free just by signing up. However, a friend of mine suggests the website bugmenot.com :arrow: as an alternative to having to do these annoying sign ups. Check it out. Thx Bruce S. for the tip.

 

 

 

Tough Choices: How Making Decisions Tires Your Brain

July 27th, 2008

The human mind is a remarkable device. Nevertheless, it is not without limits. Recently, a growing body of research has focused on a particular mental limitation, which has to do with our ability to use a mental trait known as executive function. When you focus on a specific task for an extended period of time or choose to eat a salad instead of a piece of cake, you are flexing your executive function muscles. Both thought processes require conscious effort-you have to resist the temptation to let your mind wander or to indulge in the sweet dessert. It turns out, however, that use of executive function—a talent we all rely on throughout the day—draws upon a single resource of limited capacity in the brain. When this resource is exhausted by one activity, our mental capacity may be severely hindered in another, seemingly unrelated activity. (See here and here.)

Imagine, for a moment, that you are facing a very difficult decision about which of two job offers to accept. One position offers good pay and job security, but is pretty mundane, whereas the other job is really interesting and offers reasonable pay, but has questionable job security. Clearly you can go about resolving this dilemma in many ways. Few people, however, would say that your decision should be affected or influenced by whether or not you resisted the urge to eat cookies prior to contemplating the job offers. A decade of psychology research suggests otherwise. Unrelated activities that tax the executive function have important lingering effects, and may disrupt your ability to make such an important decision. In other words, you might choose the wrong job because you didn’t eat a cookie.

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Cull Ghats – a dream

July 27th, 2008

Sharon and I were sitting together on a plane about to land in Denver. The plane began to bank right in preparation for landing and somehow I could see the banking indicator in front of me. The plane kept banking over further and further and then it began to nose down steeply. I was also able to see right through the nose of the plane so I could see the ground below. I was thinking this was an interesting thing for a jet to do but that it doesn’t look good.

Awakening

I found myself walking hand in hand with Sharon about a block or so outside the airport buildings. It was twilight and there weren’t many people about. I realized I had no idea how I’d gotten there and I said so to her.

She relied, “I don’t either.” We weren’t upset or emotional about this – just amazed that we should find ourselves somewhere with no idea how we’d gotten there.

We walked towards the buildings and Sharon glanced out into the open spaces to the right and said, “Maybe that’s the reason.” Off in the distance, it seemed like something had happened. It was hard to see in the semi-dark but it looked like there was a big dark area with a small pale of smoke above it. I looked and saw what she meant and said, “Maybe.

We went into the buildings and up some stairs. I was feeling light somehow and I imagined that I could fly and a moment later, I was floating beside her as she climbed the stairs. I said, “Look, I’m flying.” She began to fly with me as we went up.

I realized now that we might be dead and that we could do new things. I couldn’t think why we needed to be at the airport any more so I suggested that we simply pass through the next door we came to and that on the other side we’d pop out into our own place. And we did.

Home

When we entered the room, I thought I recognized it but I was only partially sure that it was ours. It seemed familiar but strange at the same time. I had the sense we were renting it though I knew we owned our place.

Then we went out and we were walking at night in the neighborhood and talking about all of this strangeness. I remember weaving our way through a narrow passage between some bushes and saying, “Gosh, I don’t know what we do like this. Do we eat? Do we sleep? It’s really bizarre.” She didn’t know either.

I began to wonder, as we walked through a crowd of people, if we could influence them. Make them aware of us. I wondered what it would be like to walk through them. Would I see their insides? I pulled my keys out of my pocket and realized I had physical possession of them and I wondered what the boundaries were between what we could effect and what we couldn’t.

We walked and talked some more about various things like food and water and after awhile, I said, “This will be a problem because we have a place to stay right now but it won’t stay ours.

I continued, “I mean we’re not here to pay a mortgage or rent so we won’t have a place that’s ours.

She said, “Yeah, this is probably the sort of thing that forces people to move onto their next reincarnation. We just won’t have anything to do here after awhile.

Loss

Then the dream jumped again, and we were laying there face to face in bed. And I finally realized, after all this walking around as a ghost, how sad it was and that I was going to be forced to advance and leave this life and this relationship with Sharon behind.

I grabbed her and held her really close and began to cry really hard because I loved her and didn’t want to lose her.

Later

Later, after I awake from crying in my dream and I got up and recorded all of this, I went back to bed and dreamt again.

I found that I was looking up at a squarish church steeple somewhere in California and on the steeple a banner was hung that said, “Cull Ghats“.

I awoke again and lay there and thought about what “Cull Ghats” might mean. And I realized that it was, somehow, the title of the dream I’d just had about the crash.

China loses track of 121 tons of ivory

July 24th, 2008

– And we wonder why species are going extinct? Humans are surely a scourge on the Earth in so far as the other species who live here are concerned.

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UNITED NATIONS – China’s government lost track of 121 tons of elephant ivory over a dozen years that probably were sold on illegal markets, according to a previously undisclosed Chinese report to UN regulatory officials.

The “shortfall” in ivory described in the document between 1991 and 2002 – equal to the tusks from about 11,000 dead elephants – could provide fodder for representatives of a UN accord to reject China’s attempt next week to gain permission to import more ivory.

“We have not been able to account for the shortfall through the sale of legal ivory by the selected selling sites in the country,” Chinese officials reported in 2003 to the Swiss-based UN Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora, or CITES. “This suggests a large amount of illegal sale of the ivory stockpile has taken place.”

AP obtained the Chinese report from the Environmental Investigation Agency, a watchdog group based in Washington and London. EIA also has compiled a briefing for nations that signed on to CITES to try to prevent China from gaining permission to trade ivory at a CITES meeting in Geneva, Switzerland next week.

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How To Power The Entire Country With Renewable Energy: Fun With Maps Edition

July 24th, 2008

– Excellent post over on The Sietch Blog replete with great maps showing the abundance of the difference types of renewable energy across the U.S.    Highly recommended.

Click here to see the article: 

How’s that work again?

July 23rd, 2008

– So today I’m reading a story about a finance company in New Zealand, Hanover Finance, that has suspended repayments on principle and interest to 16,500 investors owed $554 million. The story is here:

– As to why they’ve done this, they explain:

“It’s a combination of the collapse of the financial markets and the whole system – the collapse of other substantial finance companies – which has affected our reinvestment rates pretty dramatically. And the inability of people with even good projects to refinance or sell to be able to repay us in a timely fashion.”

– Now, as to what going to happen, they say this:

The suspension of capital and interest repayments effective yesterday, along with a freeze on new investments, would enable the business to be “managed in a measured way as it works through a restructure plan to allow investors to be repaid over an agreed time period“.

– Mmmm. They cannot pay their bills because they haven’t been sufficiently dilligent at predicting and ameliorating their risks and now they cannot make their payments. And now that they’ve put their foot in it, they get to ‘tell‘ their creditors how it’s going to be. I.e., ‘We’ll suspend our payments to you and we’ll sort out which of you we can pay back and when.’

– I’ve read a number of stories like this with much the same text but I never connected the dots until today.

– If we, the small people, don’t judge our risks correctly and get over extended (like in a sub-prime mortgage crises), we don’t get to tell anyone how it’s going to be. Nope, we get told.

Pay up or we’ll foreclose you and take away the collateral we forced you to put up.

– Collateral? Mmmm, let me think about that. The ‘big’ guys loan us money in the hope of getting a good return on their investment in the form of the interest they’ll make. But, as a backup, they impose liens on our property so if we cannot pay, they can take away something of equal or greater value (typically) to what we owe them. That makes it pretty hard for them to lose on the deal because they either get their money back plus good interest or they get the property.

– Now, when one of us ‘small’ people invests in one of their financial firms like Hanover Finance, we’re doing it for the gains we hope to make. Essentially, we’re loaning them our money for their use and they hope, through wise investments, to grow the money sufficiently to be able to both pay us back with a profit to us and to make a profit themselves. It’s important to note here that they plan to accomplish all of this using our money to do it.

– But the finance company doesn’t have to put up any collateral to us to protect the money we loan them against any stupid decisions they might make. Nope, they just take our money, invest it, and hopefully make a profit. That’s how it’s suppose to work, anyway.

– However, if they invest our money badly, do we have any recourse? Not much. They’ll let you know, at their leisure, if they can pay you anything at all back at all on your investment which went bad under their control.

– Yeah. All of this serves well to remind us who are the ‘little‘ people and who are the ‘big‘ ones in the world of finance. And we just take all this for granted.

Mexican Resorts Destroying Mangroves, Dooming Fisheries

July 23rd, 2008

The loss of Mexico‘s coastal mangrove forests to development is threatening the country’s multimillion-dollar fishing industry, according to a new study.

Around Mexico’s Gulf of California—between Baja California peninsula and the west coast of the mainland—mangroves are being destroyed to make way for high-end tourism resorts, marinas, and controversial industrial shrimp farms.

The government has overvalued such development and grossly undervalued the vital role mangroves play in supporting the region’s U.S. $19-million-dollar fishing industry, the report said.

The Gulf of California harbors more than a hundred fish species, 30 percent of which depend on mangroves for survival.

In particular, the roots of the saltwater forests serve as sanctuaries and nurseries for commercial fish species such as snapper, snook, and mullet.

The study, led by researchers at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California, San Diego, was published this week in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

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Warming world ‘drying wetlands’

July 23rd, 2008

More than 700 scientists are attending a major conference to draw up an action plan to protect the world’s wetlands.

Organisers say a better understanding of how to manage the vital ecosystems is urgently needed.

Rising temperatures are not only accelerating evaporation rates, but also reducing rainfall levels and the volume of meltwater from glaciers.

Although only covering 6% of the Earth’s land surface, they store up to an estimated 20% of terrestrial carbon.

Co-organised by the UN University and Brazil’s Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso, the five-day Intecol International Wetlands Conference in Cuiaba, Brazil, will examine the links between wetlands and climate change.

“Humanity in many parts of the world needs a wake-up call to fully appreciate the vital environmental, social and economic services wetlands provide,” said conference co-chairman Paulo Teixeira.

These included absorbing and holding carbon, regulating water levels and supporting biodiversity, he added.

Konrad Osterwalder, rector of the UN University, said that people in the past had viewed the habitats as a problem, which led to many being drained.

“Yet wetlands are essential to the planet’s health,” he explained. “With hindsight, the problems in reality have turned out to be the draining of wetlands and other ‘solutions’ we humans devised.”

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Solar Thermal Power Coming to a Boil

July 22nd, 2008

Jonathan G. Dorn

After emerging in 2006 from 15 years of hibernation, the solar thermal power industry experienced a surge in 2007, with 100 megawatts of new capacity coming online worldwide. During the 1990s, cheap fossil fuels, combined with a loss of state and federal incentives, put a damper on solar thermal power development. However, recent increases in energy prices, escalating concerns about global climate change, and fresh economic incentives are renewing interest in this technology.

Considering that the energy in sunlight reaching the earth in just 70 minutes is equivalent to annual global energy consumption, the potential for solar power is virtually unlimited. With concentrating solar thermal power (CSP) capacity expected to double every 16 months over the next five years, worldwide installed CSP capacity will reach 6,400 megawatts in 2012—14 times the current capacity. (See data.)

Unlike solar photovoltaics (PVs), which use semiconductors to convert sunlight directly into electricity, CSP plants generate electricity using heat. Much like a magnifying glass, reflectors focus sunlight onto a fluid-filled vessel. The heat absorbed by the fluid is used to generate steam that drives a turbine to produce electricity. Power generation after sunset is possible by storing excess heat in large, insulated tanks filled with molten salt. Since CSP plants require high levels of direct solar radiation to operate efficiently, deserts make ideal locations.

Two big advantages of CSP over conventional power plants are that the electricity generation is clean and carbon-free and, since the sun is the energy source, there are no fuel costs. Energy storage in the form of heat is also significantly cheaper than battery storage of electricity, providing CSP with an economical means to overcome intermittency and deliver dispatchable power.

The United States and Spain are leading the world in the development of solar thermal power, with a combined total of over 5,600 megawatts of new capacity expected to come online by 2012. Representing over 90 percent of the projected new capacity by 2012, the output from these plants would be enough to meet the electrical needs of more than 1.7 million homes.

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Fall in tiny animals a ‘disaster’

July 22nd, 2008

Experts on invertebrates have expressed “profound shock” over a government report showing a decline in zooplankton of more than 70% since the 1960s.

The tiny animals are an important food for fish, mammals and crustaceans.

Figures contained in the Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) document, Marine Programme Plan, suggested a fall in abundance.

Charity Buglife said it could be a “biodiversity disaster of enormous proportions”.

They said it could have implications for creatures all the way up the food chain, from sand eels to the seabirds, such as puffin, which feed on the fish.

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