New crops needed to avoid famines

December 5th, 2006

– It seems that everywhere one turns, there is a story like this about failing fisheries, dying forests, or plunging water tables. Each story is full of alarming statistics and dire predictions. If it was just a one-off story, we could dismiss it as some drama-queen’s moment in the media spotlight – but it isn’t. It is, rather, like the increasing drum of rain on the roof as the storm builds. It grows louder and the predictions more dire, but at the same time, the human tendency to acclimate to new situations and to desensitize to stimuli previously presented, dulls most of us to the rising urgency.

– Most of us turn away after seeing yet another story with many of the same features as the previous one and we seek, instead, for the next pseudo-adrenalin fix from the ever more extreme offerings of the mass media or from the acquisition of our next ‘gotta-have-it’ physical toy.

– Rome is burning – marginalized to the back pages of section three overshadowed by the fact that Britney’s not wearing underwear these days.

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By Richard Black
Environment correspondent, BBC News website

The global network of agricultural research centres warns that famines lie ahead unless new crop strains adapted to a warmer future are developed.

The Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) says yields of existing varieties will fall.

New forecasts say warming will shrink South Asia’s wheat area by half.

CGIAR is announcing plans to accelerate efforts aimed at developing new strains of staple crops including maize, wheat, rice and sorghum.

At the network’s annual meeting in Washington, scientists will also report on measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from farmland.CGIAR links 15 non-profit research institutes around the world working mainly on agriculture in developing countries and the tropics.

“We’re talking about a major challenge here,” said Louis Verchot of the World Agroforestry Centre (Icraf) in Kenya, a member institute of CGIAR.

“We’re talking about challenges that have to be dealt with at every level, from ideas about social justice to the technology of food production,” he told the BBC News website.

“We’re talking about large scale human migration and the return to large-scale famines in developing countries, something which we decided 40 or 50 years ago was unacceptable and did something about.”

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Head for the hills – the new survivalists

December 3rd, 2006

Published on Thursday, November 23, 2006 by The Weekend Australian Magazine

So what do you do when you’re pretty sure that the end of the world as we know it is coming soon, but your girlfriend doesn’t believe you? Sure, she might nod her head when you confront her with some of the gloomier facts, but then she shrugs and goes back to her pursuit of modern pleasures. She doesn’t like it when you talk about it to other people, either. No one likes being told their hopes and dreams are about to turn to dust.

This is the problem confronting Adelaide aircraft engineer Steve McReady. Sick of trying to warn people who won’t listen, he is bugging out. He has sold four of his seven investment properties, and has a fifth on the market. He’s putting his collection of 10 classic Triumphs and BMWs up for sale. The girlfriend begged him to keep the BM convertible, but there won’t be much use for it in the world he sees coming.

He has bought a property in New Zealand – which he says fares well in climate-change models – and once he gets his affairs in order he’ll move there to learn about growing vegies and raising chooks. He wants to build a big shed to stock with all the important things that will become difficult to obtain, such as fencing wire and Band-Aids. But he worries that he’s left it too late, and that the world might start getting ugly before he can learn how to make cheese and grow potatoes.

He would have been talking marriage with his girlfriend now if it weren’t for all this. “She’s a really nice person, great morals, but the lifestyle she aspires to is what most modern women want,” McReady explains the first time we talk on the phone. “We’re still going out and doing things together. We have talked about this issue but we really haven’t resolved it. I’m relying on time. Maybe $2-a-litre petrol by Christmas or if the United States invades Iran … Perhaps if she saw that what I’m talking about was true, she might change her attitude. But currently I can’t see it happening.”

When I meet McReady a few weeks later, they have split. He says he was unable to devote himself to her the way she needed. How could he when the calamity ahead colours his every waking thought? His whole future has spun off its steady track since he first picked up a document from a colleague’s desk about the end of the oil age. At 44, he had worked hard to be able to talk about early retirement. He was going to develop an industrial block, rent out two factory units and use another to tinker with his cars. But he’s sold the block now because in a future without cheap oil to power the modern way of life – and therefore without cheap food, without cheap anything – he can’t see much call for industrial blocks. He also can’t see much use for
aeroplanes, so he sold his half-share in one of those, too.

He’s well aware that the economy is booming, unemployment is low, the sun is shining. Surely the system is working?

“This is what a peak looks like,” he says. “That’s where the economists and cornucopians get it wrong. They don’t see that for every bright day there’s going to be a grey day.”

Sober and serious, McReady is part of a new wave of survivalists making plans for big trouble. Whereas once it was nuclear holocaust, big-government paranoia or religious rapture that motivated such people, now it is more likely to be climate change, energy shortages and economic collapse. This story is not about whether what they think is true, but more about the social phenomena of what they’re doing about it. Most never discuss their beliefs with friends and colleagues because they’re frightened of ridicule. But they are getting ready for a world morphed into “Argentina on a very bad day” or plunged into a never-ending depression, or famine, or, worst-case scenario, Mad Max IV and the die-off of billions of people.

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THE DARKENING SEA

December 3rd, 2006

– This is a long article and you may not be sure you want to read  after just reading the teaser section I’ve provided. If you are not sure, go to the end and you’ll find a few quotes from deeper within the article that may pique your interest.

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by ELIZABETH KOLBERT in The New Yorker magazine
What carbon emissions are doing to the ocean

Pteropods are tiny marine organisms that belong to the very broad class known as zooplankton. Related to snails, they swim by means of a pair of winglike gelatinous flaps and feed by entrapping even tinier marine creatures in a bubble of mucus. Many pteropod species—there are nearly a hundred in all—produce shells, apparently for protection; some of their predators, meanwhile, have evolved specialized tentacles that they employ much as diners use forks to spear escargot. Pteropods are first male, but as they grow older they become female.

Victoria Fabry, an oceanographer at California State University at San Marcos, is one of the world’s leading experts on pteropods. She is slight and soft-spoken, with wavy black hair and blue-green eyes. Fabry fell in love with the ocean as a teen-ager after visiting the Outer Banks, off North Carolina, and took up pteropods when she was in graduate school, in the early nineteen-eighties. At that point, most basic questions about the animals had yet to be answered, and, for her dissertation, Fabry decided to study their shell growth. Her plan was to raise pteropods in tanks, but she ran into trouble immediately. When disturbed, pteropods tend not to produce the mucus bubbles, and slowly starve. Fabry tried using bigger tanks for her pteropods, but the only correlation, she recalled recently, was that the more time she spent improving the tanks “the quicker they died.” After a while, she resigned herself to constantly collecting new specimens. This, in turn, meant going out on just about any research ship that would have her.

Fabry developed a simple, if brutal, protocol that could be completed at sea. She would catch some pteropods, either by trawling with a net or by scuba diving, and place them in one-litre bottles filled with seawater, to which she had added a small amount of radioactive calcium 45. Forty-eight hours later, she would remove the pteropods from the bottles, dunk them in warm ethanol, and pull their bodies out with a pair of tweezers. Back on land, she would measure how much calcium 45 their shells had taken up during their two days of captivity.

In the summer of 1985, Fabry got a berth on a research vessel sailing from Honolulu to Kodiak Island. Late in the trip, near a spot in the Gulf of Alaska known as Station Papa, she came upon a profusion of Clio pyramidata, a half-inch-long pteropod with a shell the shape of an unfurled umbrella. In her enthusiasm, Fabry collected too many specimens; instead of putting two or three in a bottle, she had to cram in a dozen. The next day, she noticed that something had gone wrong. “Normally, their shells are transparent,” she said. “They look like little gems, little jewels. They’re just beautiful. But I could see that, along the edge, they were becoming opaque, chalky.”

Like other animals, pteropods take in oxygen and give off carbon dioxide as a waste product. In the open sea, the CO2 they produce has no effect. Seal them in a small container, however, and the CO2 starts to build up, changing the water’s chemistry. By overcrowding her Cliopyramidata, Fabry had demonstrated that the organisms were highly sensitive to such changes. Instead of growing, their shells were dissolving. It stood to reason that other kinds of pteropods—and, indeed, perhaps any number of shell-building species—were similarly vulnerable. This should have represented a major discovery, and a cause for alarm. But, as is so often the case with inadvertent breakthroughs, it went unremarked upon. No one on the boat, including Fabry, appreciated what the pteropods were telling them, because no one, at that point, could imagine the chemistry of an entire ocean changing.

Since the start of the industrial revolution, humans have burned enough coal, oil, and natural gas to produce some two hundred and fifty billion metric tons of carbon. The result, as is well known, has been a transformation of the earth’s atmosphere. The concentration of CO2 in the air today—three hundred and eighty parts per million—is higher than it has been at any point in the past six hundred and fifty thousand years, and probably much longer. At the current rate of emissions growth, CO2 concentration will top five hundred parts per million—roughly double pre-industrial levels—by the middle of this century. It is expected that such an increase will produce an eventual global temperature rise of between three and a half and seven degrees Fahrenheit, and that this, in turn, will prompt a string of disasters, including fiercer hurricanes, more deadly droughts, the disappearance of most remaining glaciers, the melting of the Arctic ice cap, and the inundation of many of the world’s major coastal cities. But this is only half the story.

Ocean covers seventy per cent of the earth’s surface, and everywhere that water and air come into contact there is an exchange. Gases from the atmosphere get absorbed by the ocean and gases dissolved in the water are released into the atmosphere. When the two are in equilibrium, roughly the same quantities are being dissolved as are getting released. But change the composition of the atmosphere, as we have done, and the exchange becomes lopsided: more CO2 from the air enters the water than comes back out. In the nineteen-nineties, researchers from seven countries conducted nearly a hundred cruises, and collected more than seventy thousand seawater samples from different depths and locations. The analysis of these samples, which was completed in 2004, showed that nearly half of all the carbon dioxide that humans have emitted since the start of the nineteenth century has been absorbed by the sea.

When CO2 dissolves, it produces carbonic acid, which has the chemical formula H2CO3. As acids go, H2CO3 is relatively innocuous—we drink it all the time in Coke and other carbonated beverages—but in sufficient quantities it can change the water’s pH. Already, humans have pumped enough carbon into the oceans—some hundred and twenty billion tons—to produce a .1 decline in surface pH. Since pH, like the Richter scale, is a logarithmic measure, a .1 drop represents a rise in acidity of about thirty per cent. The process is generally referred to as “ocean acidification,” though it might more accurately be described as a decline in ocean alkalinity. This year alone, the seas will absorb an additional two billion tons of carbon, and next year it is expected that they will absorb another two billion tons. Every day, every American, in effect, adds forty pounds of carbon dioxide to the oceans.

Because of the slow pace of deep-ocean circulation and the long life of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, it is impossible to reverse the acidification that has already taken place. Nor is it possible to prevent still more from occurring. Even if there were some way to halt the emission of CO2 tomorrow, the oceans would continue to take up carbon until they reached a new equilibrium with the air. As Britain’s Royal Society noted in a recent report, it will take “tens of thousands of years for ocean chemistry to return to a condition similar to that occurring at pre-industrial times.”

Humans have, in this way, set in motion change on a geologic scale. The question that remains is how marine life will respond. Though oceanographers are just beginning to address the question, their discoveries, at this early stage, are disturbing.

The complete article is here:

Research thx to LA

Here are a few of LA’s comments on the article:

A recent New Yorker has an article by Elizabeth Kolbert on the
effects of carbon in the oceans. By now we could probably recite the consequences of carbon-loading the atmosphere, but I had never once heard or thought about how it might be affecting the sea. But “nearly half of all the carbon dioxide that humans have emitted since the start of the nineteenth century has been absorbed by the sea.”

This might initially seem like GOOD news. Think what shape the
atmosphere would be in had the oceans not absorbed half the carbon we’ve output! However, the aquatic carbon-loading is far from benign. The main consequence is a change in pH levels. The oceans are alkaline, and the carbon absorption makes them less alkaline, so it’s convenient shorthand (though not strictly accurate) to talk about “ocean acidification.” Research indicates that the changing pH of the oceans will have the following effects:

– Making it more difficult (and at some point impossible) for shellfish to form shells.

– Preventing the growth of coral and endangering the millions of species that depend on coral for habitat

– Killing some kinds of phytoplankton

061204 – Monday – Soros II

December 3rd, 2006

I continued to read George Soros over lunch today and got into a new section in the book in which he refers to an insight he developed during the breakup of the Soviet Union when he and his foundations were deeply involved in trying to influence an orderly transition from a Closed Society/Central Economy into an Open Society/Capitalistic Economy.

Prior to this, he’d seen Open Societies and Closed Societies as two polar opposites. Following this, he reevaluated and decided that a better model was one in which the Open Society model sits midway between the closed and the too open extremes. He learned that a weak system with no goals for people to identify with and a huge amount of ambiguity and uncertainty can foster a desire for order and control that easily leads back into closed totalitarian systems.

This reminded me of an E-mail conversation that has been spinning out between myself and my friend, MD, over the past week in which we’d been focused on this same idea. I.e., that closed societies, wherein dogma has become ascendant, are stagnant and repressive and resist change but societies in which anything and everything goes (such as the US youth culture of the hippy 60’s), are essentially unstable because a lack sufficient structure and quickly fall apart.

But, more than this, I saw another parallel from the relatively new science of Complex Systems and Emergent Properties.

In complexity theory, new emergent properties can manifest only when the overall system is nicely balanced near the transition point between static order and dynamic disorder. Here at this border zone, the various bits and pieces which have the potential to combine to yield a new emergent something, have the flexibility to move around and find each other and to seek an emergent pattern together. Here, the disorder is not so strong that it will keep tearing the forming patterns apart before they can coalesce nor is the order so strong that the bits and pieces are locked into an existing structures within which they cannot move and flex.

The boundary between steam and ice, that we call water, is a tangible example of the idea. And this relates to the fact that for life to evolve, the sorts of molecules involved and the local conditions had to be somewhere between the molecular chaos of too much heat and the molecular rigidity of too much cold.

Much of what I know of Complexity and Emergent Properties, I learned from Waldrop’s 1992 book, Complexity: The Emerging Science at the Edge of Order and Chaos.

And finally, this entire line of thought; the correspondence between Soros’ insights, my conversations with MD and the ideas of Complexity Theory, reminded me strongly of Herman Hesse’s book, The Glass Bead Game: (Magister Ludi) for which he won the Nobel Prize for Literature in 1946.

An amazingly deep book in which one of the major threads is the idea that there are profound correspondences between the various disciplines such as math, music, history, art and etc. Indeed, the ‘Glass Bead Game’, in which these correspondences are revealed is, in Hesse’s future world, the ultimate intellectual pursuit – the attempt to show and experience the interrelatedness of all things.

061204 – Monday – Soros

December 3rd, 2006

I’ve been reading The Age of Fallibility: Consequences of the War on Terror by George Soros. I like his ideas a lot.

He focuses particularly on the fallibility that necessarily arises because we humans are part of what we’re trying to understand as in when we focus on something like economics or sociology.

He claims to have made his vast fortune by recognizing the disjoint that usually occurs when people reason out what they think should happen in a given situation (like the stock market) but forget to include themselves into their calculations. He says that these ‘disjoints’ are usually recognizable to the trained eye as what we call, after-the-fact, bubbles or over-exuberance in the market. By recognizing these disjoints between our predictions and the actual reality, he’s managed to position his money in the optimum place several times in contradiction to all market wisdom and made a fortune doing it.

Soros is more than just a financier, however. He has a deep passion for truth and for improving the world and he has the resources to be able to try to do something about the state of the world. He has, over the years, established a number of foundations to try to influence national and world affairs according to his theories.

His most interesting ideas, for me, are those he has about human societies. He advocates what he calls, Open Society. In fact, he’s created the Open Society Foundation to help promote and support Open Societies world wide. It is interesting and idealistic stuff and I encourage you to follow the links I’ve provided to learn more.

But, what I’m currently thinking about is how and why Soros came up with the formulations he uses. His background is as a financier. The mental tools he’s developed over the years are those that enabled him to succeed in the markets. It is natural that he should take the tools that worked for him there and extend them into other areas like how human govern themselves.

I, on the other hand, have a deep background in the natural and biological sciences and have also spent much of my adult life deep in the mysteries of computer systems and systems thinking. So, when I approach new fields, like how humans govern themselves, I too tend to bring the tools that have served me well and try to apply them.

A very bright fellow named Samuel Hahn, once said, “Anything you can do, I can do META.” One way to look at his statement is to think that it refers to the fact that once you have two or more of something, like theories, you can compare their relative merits against each other in a meta-analysis to gain insights at a higher level.

This is a deep system thought and as such, it can bootstrap you up to new ways of looking at things. I think that it is a great failing in our educational systems that we do not teach early on the utility of reflexive recourse to meta thinking as a way to penetrate to the deeper essences or higher views of whatever is being considered.

Soros’ thinking derives from his field of expertise and while it is applied with as much integrity and compassion as anyone could wish for, I think it lacks for never having questioned if there were not other deeper ways of looking at the same questions. We are, after all, evolved biological entities. All that we’ve created in terms of markets, societies, laws, governments and culture, have been built upon the bedrock of our essential biological natures.

I’ve found myself for a long time pursuing this meta thread in everything. Attempting to deconstruct the premises at the local level into the premises that underly them at a deeper level.

I’ve convinced myself that our biology underlies most of what we do regardless of what we think the reasons for our actions are. How many times have all of us done something rather stupid and then tried (perhaps unsuccessfully) to convince ourselves that ‘we really meant to do that’. That box of cookies, that surprise pregnancy, that overdrawn credit card?

So, when we go looking for the reasons why we do things, I’m convinced that our biology is the deepest well spring we can draw from in our attempts at self understanding. And, as you may have seen before on this site, our inherent Biological Imperatives are the deepest drivers of our behavior in my opinion. Soros does an excellent job of explaining what we do but he’s light on the deep whys and without a deep understanding of the whys, it will be difficult to try to effect changes in our aggregate behaviors of the type we need to adopt if we hope to avoid the consequences of the Perfect Storm.

061204 – Monday – the New Zealand Post

December 3rd, 2006

I picked up the phone a few minutes ago to find a lady from New Zealand Post on the line.  It seems they had a letter for me and they couldn’t read the address though the name was clear.   So, they went to the phone book where I’m listed, looked me up and gave me a call to get the right address so the letter could be delivered.

I don’t think that would happen in the USA.

061203 – Sunday – Eden Lost

December 2nd, 2006

I’ve completed a first draft of a long piece I call Eden Lost and posted it today here:

It is one of the core pages here on the www.samadhisoft.com site. The subject matter talked about in this piece is central to the point of this site just as The Perfect Storm hypothesis and the Transcending our Biological Imperative pieces are.

These several pieces together fit into a larger causal sequence which I will explore soon.

I would ask you, dear readers, to read the Eden Lost piece and offer your comments. I’d like to know what works, what doesn’t, what was missed and what’s inappropriate or incorrect. Your help in this matter will be much appreciated.

Sincerely,

Dennis Gallagher

061202 – Saturday – The RSA

December 2nd, 2006

I love adventures – small trips off into new worlds.

Tonight, I went into the RSA (Returned Servicemens Association) here in Christchurch for dinner. It’s an economical place. $12.50 for the special, $2.00 for the Mushroom side dish and $5.00 for a glass of Chardonnay. As I ate, I read George Soros’ book, The Age of Fallibility: Consequences of the War on Terror, and mused over his ideas.

When I came in, I asked if the public was welcomed there in the restaurant and they said, ‘Yes, no problem’. And later, the lady who waited on me also said that if I wanted to go back into the RSA club itself where they have the bar and the Pokies, they could sign me in since I was a former serviceman.

After dinner, I took her up on the idea and I went back into the club portion of the facility and had two beers and talked to some fellows there. It’s a lot like, I think, a VFW Post in the US. Indeed, I saw several VFW banners hung there apparently from visiting Americans from various VFWs.

A bar, a lot of tables, three snooker tables, a lending library and walls covered with photographs and the stories of me who fought in the various wars that New Zealanders have participated in. The restaurant’s name was The Victoria Cross and men who’d earned the VC figured prominently in the photographs on the wall back in the club. Charles Upham, a New Zealander who is only one of three men to ever win the VC twice figured prominently there.

I met Moka first. a Brit to came out to NZ at 18 for an adventure in 1954. He spent 25 years in the NZ army and had participated in the Malaya Campaign which lasted for many years and involved suppressing a communist uprising (a bit of history I was largely unaware of). He’s got four kids and three of them currently live in Europe. One owns a restaurant in Spain.

I tool a long walk around the room, beer in hand, to read all the plaques and stories and look at their lending library. When I returned, I joined Moka at a table and met Noel and Lloyd. I never learned much about Noel but Lloyd has a welding and sheet metal business and has for 25 years. Prior to that, he built a 45 foot boat and before that he spent six months fishing and made more than he normally made in a year but it bored him. Lloyd and I discussed our businesses and how they are run and how the various responsibilities are split up.

The place was nearly empty. They said that Friday night was the big night. I could join the RSA, if I liked. Since I’d served in the military, I met the requirements.

It was a good evening. Some light bantering back and forth and for the most part I was able to follow what everyone said. Perhaps, I’m absorbing the accent a little better now.

A ten minute walk and I was home. Along the way. I admired the moon drifting behind the gossamer clouds and wondered what it was going to look like in a day or two when it was full and hanging upside down from how in looks in the northern hemisphere.

061202 – Saturday – Looking backwards

December 1st, 2006

This is just a quick post saying that I’ve gone back and filled in the photographs on an earlier post having to do with my visit to my son’s place in Southern California and on the trip he and I took out to Joshua Tree National Monument. The earlier post is here:

Internet the key to White House – Eric Schmidt, Google CEO

December 1st, 2006

Eric Schmidt told Republican Governors that the Internet was the key to next Presidential Election, according to an article in Zdnet.

Eric offered a few examples of how the Internet, especially video file-sharing sites like Google’s newly acquired YouTube, had changed the political landscape by enabling anyone to disseminate information widely and instantly.

A couple of examples were given in the Zdnet article that I was not fully aware of. I knew that US. Rep. John Murtha was running for a key position in the Democratic House – and somehow, that he was not popular enough (did not know why) till now:

Democratic U.S. Rep. John Murtha of Pennsylvania felt the sting when somebody resurrected secretly recorded footage taken during the FBI’s Abscam bribery investigation in the late 1970s. Murtha rejected a bribe offer from undercover agents dressed as Arab sheiks and was never charged during the investigation, but the video showed him telling the purported sheiks that “I want to deal with you guys awhile before I make any transactions.”The footage was posted on YouTube and other Web sites just as Murtha was trying to persuade fellow Democratic representatives to elect him as their majority leader. He lost.

In other words, the skillful use of online video and audio footage can destroy or raise any one’s reputation within a couple of hours – that’s how powerful the Internet is.

In another well-publicized campaign incident, a videotape of Virginia Republican Sen. George Allen calling an opposition campaign worker of Indian descent “macaca” also spread quickly over the Internet. Allen went on to lose to Democrat Jim Webb.

I heard something about Google Earth Maps and the Gulf kingdom of Brhrain last weekend but did not have the details. Turns out that……

……Schmidt said the Gulf kingdom of Bahrain got a taste in the run-up to its elections last weekend, when someone used the Google Earth satellite mapping feature to photograph the ruling family’s lavish houses, and posted them on line, juxtaposed next to the homes of ordinary citizens.The government tried to censor the photos, which instantly boosted their popularity, he said.

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