Gravity Measurements Confirm Greenland’s Glaciers Precipitous Meltdown

October 20th, 2006

– The scary part of this article is towards the end. And I quote:

This study and other GRACE studies published by [others] all agree that there is significant mass wastage of Greenland into the ocean,” notes glaciologist Eric Rignot of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. “None of this has been predicted by numerical models, and therefore all projections of the contribution of Greenland to sea level [rise] are way below reality.“‘

– To get an idea of why this is scary, read about the Thermohaline Circulation here and especially here.  This is definitely an evolving piece of the Perfect Storm.
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Of late, the enormous glaciers that flow down to the sea from the interior of Greenland have been picking up speed. In the last few years, enough ice has come off the northern landmass to sustain the average flow of the Colorado River for six years or fill Lake Mead three times over or cover the state of Maryland in 10 feet of water, assuming it were perfectly flat. And whether it is the glaciers’ weight, speed or volume that is measured, a quickening of the their movement can be detected. In fact, the latest gravity-based measurements show that the glaciers lost roughly 101 gigatons of ice annually between 2003 and 2005, according to a paper published online in Science.

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Climate water threat to millions

October 20th, 2006

-I’ve written about the coming water problems here.

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Climate change threatens supplies of water for millions of people in poorer countries, warns a new report from the Christian development agency Tearfund.

Recent research suggests that by 2050, five times as much land is likely to be under “extreme” drought as now.

Tearfund wants richer states to look at helping poorer ones adjust to drought at next month’s UN climate summit.

This week the UK’s climate minister said he is confident of reaching an deal on adaptation funds at the talks.

There is an “urgent need” for such measures, Ian Pearson told a parliamentary committee.

The Tearfund report, Feeling the Heat, urges donors to ramp up assistance quickly. Other charities are likely to make similar pleas in the run-up to the Nairobi summit, which begins on 6 November.

Citing research by the Oxford academic Norman Myers, Tearfund suggests there will be as many as 200 million climate refugees by 2050.

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Critics accuse Canada of abandoning Kyoto

October 20th, 2006

– Talk is cheap. Canada signed up for Kyoto which was commendable. But, when the rubber hit the road, they essentially did nothing. Now, they are going to try to put a good spin on it all by making new grandiose plans for what they will do (really) by 2050. I see it all as just a way to avoid real action. Unfortunately, as the cost of real action becomes apparent, many countries are backing away hoping someone else will come forward and make the sacrifice. And all the while, like a spring building up tension, nature is being pushed harder and harder by our denial and inattention. A Perfect Storm of consequence is coming.

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TORONTO, Ontario (AP) — Canada’s government introduced legislation Thursday that would cut greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2050, a target date that prompted critics to declare that Ottawa effectively has abandoned the international Kyoto accord on climate change.

The proposed Clean Air Act, intended to counter claims that Prime Minister Stephen Harper is soft on the environment, sets no short-term targets for cutting greenhouse emissions. In the long term, it says the government would seek to cut emissions 45 percent to 65 percent by 2050.

Under the Kyoto accord, Canada pledged to cut its emissions by 6 percent from 1990 levels by 2012. The country’s emissions are now 30 percent above 1990 levels.

The legislation, which must be passed by the House of Commons, is certain to get a rough ride from opposition parties who say the act is far too weak and makes no reference to Canada’s commitments under the Kyoto treaty.

“What we can see now is that no matter what the government says about not pulling out of Kyoto, we officially pulled out of Kyoto today,” said John Bennett of the Sierra Club of Canada.

“There is no intention now to even try to achieve what we had pledged; we have decided to abandon our international commitment,” he said.

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Iran bans fast internet to cut west’s influence

October 19th, 2006

– To my thinking, ideas should stand or fall on their own merit. Therefore, when governments control information to direct the thoughts and perceptions of their populations, they are revealing that they don’t beleive that the ideas they are promoting could stand on their own merit.

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· Service providers told to restrict online speeds
· Opponents say move will hamper country’s progress

Iran’s Islamic government has opened a new front in its drive to stifle domestic political dissent and combat the influence of western culture – by banning high-speed internet links.

In a blow to the country’s estimated 5 million internet users, service providers have been told to restrict online speeds to 128 kilobytes a second and been forbidden from offering fast broadband packages. The move by Iran’s telecommunications regulator will make it more difficult to download foreign music, films and television programmes, which the authorities blame for undermining Islamic culture among the younger generation. It will also impede efforts by political opposition groups to organise by uploading information on to the net.

The order follows a purge on illegal satellite dishes, which millions of Iranians use to clandestinely watch western television. Police have seized thousands of dishes in recent months.

The latest step has drawn condemnation from MPs, internet service companies and academics, who say it will hamper Iran’s progress. “Every country in the world is moving towards modernisation and a major element of this is high-speed internet access,” said Ramazan-ali Sedeghzadeh, chairman of the parliamentary telecommunications committee. “The country needs it for development and access to contemporary science.”

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061019 – Thursday – a favorite word

October 19th, 2006

Tertulia – I really like that word and what it refers to.   Here’s a link  to a brief Wikipedia article which explains the idea .

It reminds me of reading about Charles Darwin and how various scientists and thinkers would come to his place and each afternoon, they’d all walk around the grounds and discuss various issues.

I’d like nothing better than to find my life arranged so that each day for an hour or two, I could spend time with interesting people discussing cutting edge ideas.   So far, the closest I’ve come are E-mail threads and chats over coffee at Starbucks in the morning.

Building a Better Voting Machine

October 19th, 2006

– I’ve posted a number of articles on this subject here, here, here, here, here, and here.   I’m glad to see that computer scientists are getting involved in a discussion of what constitutes a reasonable electronic voting machine.

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It’s been six years since the Florida presidential fiasco launched a flurry of spending around the country to replace antiquated punch-card and lever voting machines with expensive new electronic touch-screen machines. Yet new controversies over the security of e-voting machines continue to crop up, making it clear that the new machines are just as problematic as the ones they replaced.

Why can’t the voting machine companies get it right?

With election season upon us, Wired News spoke with two of the top computer scientists in the field, UC Berkeley’s David Wagner and Princeton’s Ed Felten, and came up with a wish list of features we would include in a voting machine, if we were asked to create one.

These recommendations can’t guarantee clean results on their own. Voting machines, no matter how secure, are no remedy for poor election procedures and ill-conceived election laws. So our system would include thorough auditing and verification capabilities and require faithful adherence to good election practices, as wells as topnotch usability and security features.

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061017 – Tuesday

October 17th, 2006

A day off to do the things I want to do all day. What a pleasure it is.

I’ve posted a few articles on this site about various things today. One was particularly interesting. It was by an Australian fellow named Ian Dunlop and he wrote in a Sydney, Australia, newspaper here about the conjunction of three factors that are going to “drag us into the abyss”. I couldn’t agree more and I’m happy to see other folks writing on what I’ve taken to calling the perfect storm.

Not too long ago here, I wrote about the new Virtual Reality things going on at SecondLife. There’s a story out today here that Reuters has opened a new bureau within the SecondLife virtual world.

… Reuters will have journalists reporting and writing financial and cultural stories within and about Second Life as part of the London-based company’s strategy to reach new audiences with the latest digital technologies.

Now one has to believe that with various large corporations jumping in, that some sort of critical mass has been passed and the thing is happening for … virtual.

The pump fun at the nursery will be continuing this week. So far, the new substitute pump is working and maintaining its prime. I’ll be buying a larger pump over the next few days and changing the electrical system from three-phase to single-phase (unless I can hire a pump expert to do it for me).

I’m also begining to get that panic-stricken feeling that usually preceeds a burst of activity. I’m thinking about how little time remains before I depart for New Zealand and how very much I have to do yet. Yikes!

All in all, though, things are good. Our business is doing as expected for this time of the year.

Unholy trinity set to drag us into the abyss

October 17th, 2006

– This article discusses the convergence of three of the factors of the Perfect Storm Hypothesis; Peak Oil, Global Climate Change and Water Shortages. It’s good that people are beginning to see that the conjunction of these factors is more worrying and significant than the fact of the isolated existence of any one of them.

– Dunlop discusses what he calls the “Tragedy of the Commons” and the fact that humanity needs to change, from the winner-take-all individualism which has created so many of the “commons” problems, to a more co-operative individualism, where managing the global and local “commons” is paramount.”

– I find his idea resonates strongly with the idea of the Cycle of Civilization expressed on Paul B. Hartzog’s Panarchy site. My only reservation is that humanity has nevergone through one of these ‘cycles’ before so there’s no certainty that we will accede to it when our changing circumstance demand that it’s time. And my fear is that in our arrogance and in our blind acting out of our biological imperatives, we will blindly go on as we are until nature itself forces the change on us to our great and enduring pain (along with the rest of the biosphere, which will also have to pay for our sins).
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By Ian Dunlop in the Sydney Morning Herald of 16 Oct 06

Scorched earth

We are about to experience the convergence of three of the great issues confronting humanity. Climate change, the peaking of oil supply and water shortage are coming together in a manner which will profoundly alter our way of life, our institutions and our ability to prosper on this planet. Each is a major issue, but their convergence has received minimal attention.

Population is the main driver. In the 60 years since World War II, the world population has grown at an unprecedented rate, from 2.5 billion to 6.5billion today, with 9 billion forecast by 2050. That growth has triggered insatiable demand for natural resources, notably water, oil and other fossil fuels. Exponential economic growth in a finite world hitting physical limits is not a new idea; we have experienced limits at a local level, but we have either side-stepped them or found short-term solutions, becoming overly confident that any global limits could be similarly circumvented.

Today, just as the bulk of the world’s population is about to step on to the growth escalator, global limits emerge that are real and imminent. The weight of scientific evidence points to the fact the globe cannot support its present population, let alone an additional 2.5 billion, unless we embrace change.

Climate change, peak oil, water shortage and population are contributing to a “tragedy of the commons”, whereby free access and unrestricted demand for a finite resource doom the resource through over-exploitation. The benefits of exploitation accrue to individuals, whereas the costs are borne by all.

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Warning over global bird flu plan

October 17th, 2006

Bird Flu or something like it such as Ebola, are very unpredictable cards in humanitiy’s deck. Certain elements of the Perfect storm Hypothesis, like Peak Oil and Falling Water Tables, are developing slowly and we’ll have some warning on them. But, something like a pandemic will come out of left field and rip through the world’s countries like a wildfire.

– It is typical of people and their attention spans that interest in the potential problems with Bird Flu have migrated to the back burner because nothing, so far, has happened. Perhaps it never will, or perhaps nature is still ambling her way towards that final fatal genetic mutation that will change H5N1Bird Flu from a desease primarily of birds to one that jumps from person to person by airborne means.

– If you think that governments have got the situation well in hand, consider their different approaches to the Antiviral Medications vs. Flu Vaccines question with regard to Bird Flu. It is chilling that the authors of this study say that, “We cannot expect to vaccinate more than 14% of the world’s population within a year of pandemic” and that 62% of the nations examined have plans to protect their populations by makeing Flu Vaccines their first line of defense

– If you believe in insurance policies, it would make very good sense to get a round of the anti-viral medicines; Tamiflu and Relenza and store them in a cool dry place in case you and your family need them in the future. Unless you are a medical professional or highly placed in the government or military, I don’t think any of us should be depending on their government to supply these to us when the storm breaks. Indeed, 62% of the governments surveyed will tell you to wait until vaccines are developed. Nope, the $100 to $200 USD it will cost you to put aside Flu Antiviral medicnes could be the best insurance you ever bought.

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A third of countries which have drawn up flu pandemic plans have failed to set out how they would distribute medical treatment, a report has found.

Researchers at the John Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and Ben Gurion University Israel studied 45 national pandemic plans.

They warned resources would be scarce, so decisions on who should get drugs or vaccines should be made in advance.

They said prioritising treatment could help reduce death and disease.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) has urged every country to develop and maintain a national plan on bird-flu.

It also recommends nations prioritise the allocation of pharmaceutical resources among the population.

Rationing

Researchers looked at 19 plans from developed nations and 26 from developing countries. In total, these represented around two-thirds of the world’s population – 3.8bn people.

The countries included the US, Norway, Australia, India, China, Serbia, Bahrain, Israel, South Africa, UK, Mexico, Venezuela, Hong Kong, Thailand and Singapore.

The report, Priority Setting for Pandemic Influenza: An Analysis of National Preparedness Plans, found almost half of the plans they examined favoured antiviral medications, such as Tamiflu, while 62% prioritised giving citizens a flu vaccine.

This was an unexpected finding, researchers said, as antiviral treatment may be the only pharmaceutical intervention available in some countries.

“We cannot expect to vaccinate more than 14% of the world’s population within a year of pandemic.”

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Women Infected With Toxoplasmosis Are More Likely To Have Boys Than Girls

October 17th, 2006

– The subject of Toxoplasmosis is one we’re written on before here.

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Women infected with dormant toxoplasmosis are more likely to give birth to boys than women who are Toxoplasma negative, according to research by S. Kankova and colleagues from the Departments of Parasitology, Microbiology and Zoology, Charles University; the Centre of Reproductive Medicine; and GynCentrum, in the Czech Republic.

They found that the presence of the parasite Toxoplasma gondii in the mothers’ blood, one of the most common parasites in humans with a worldwide prevalence of 20-80%, increased the likelihood that these women would give birth to a boy. This is the first study [1], published in Springer’s journal Naturwissenschaften this week, to suggest an effect of parasitic infection on the sex of a baby.

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