Siberian thaw to speed up global warming

September 10th, 2006

The release of trapped greenhouse gases is pushing the world past the point of no return on climate change

Robin McKie and Nick Christian
Sunday September 10, 2006
The Observer

The frozen bogs of Siberia are melting, and the thaw could have devastating consequences for the planet, scientists have discovered.

They have found that Arctic permafrost, which is starting to melt due to global warming, is releasing five times more methane gas than their calculations had predicted. That level of emission is alarming because methane itself is a greenhouse gas. Increased amounts will therefore accelerate warming, cause more melting of Siberian bogs and Arctic wasteland, and so release even more. ‘It’s a slow-motion time bomb,’ said climate expert Professor Ted Schuur, of the University of Florida.

The discovery of these levels of methane release, revealed in a report in Nature last week, suggests that the planet is rapidly approaching a critical tipping point at which global warming could trigger an irreversible acceleration in climate change. ‘The higher the temperature gets, the more permafrost we melt, the more tendency it has to become a more vicious cycle,’ said Chris Field, director of global ecology at the Carnegie Institution of Washington. ‘That’s the thing that is scary about this.’

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A Monarch’s Dire Warning About the Middle East

September 8th, 2006

One of the premises of the Perfect Storm Hypothesis is that there are many factors arising in the not too distant future which will seperately or jointly degrade life on this planet as we know it.

These factors are not solely limited to ecological and climatic issues. Humanity’s political, economic and ideological errors and conflicts will also play a major part.

This piece about the current and ongoing problems in the Middle-East is a clear example of the deadly and intractable problems that are arising within mankind’s competing societies.

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Exclusive: the world is “doomed,” Jordan’s King Abdullah II tells TIME, if the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not solved by 2007

Striding past ceremonial Circassian guards into a sitting room at Basman Palace, King Abdullah II is looking fresh and energetic, as if he has just come from another spin around town on his treasured Harley-Davidson. But his natural ebullience masked an uncharacteristic inner gloom that deepened this summer when the Middle East was plunged into yet another conflict with the Israeli-Hizballah war in Lebanon.

As the 44-year-old monarch settled into a stuffed sofa for a 1-hour TIME interview for a story to appear in the coming week’s magazine, he drew a dark picture of a region consumed by conflicts old and new, threatened by emerging Sunni-Shiite tensions and at risk of being completely destabilized if the U.S. attacks Iran. “I believe the Lebanese war dramatically opened all our eyes to the fact that if we don’t solve the Palestinian issue, the future looks pretty bleak for the Middle East,” he said. “I’m one of the most optimistic people you’ll come across. For the first time, I started becoming pessimistic towards the region.”

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Scientist: Planet going back to dinosaur era

September 8th, 2006

NORWICH, England (Reuters) — Global warming over the coming century could mean a return of temperatures last seen in the age of the dinosaur and lead to the extinction of up to half of all species, a scientist said on Thursday.

Not only will carbon dioxide levels be at the highest levels for 24 million years, but global average temperatures will be higher than for up to 10 million years, said Chris Thomas of the University of York.

Between 10 and 99 percent of species will be faced with atmospheric conditions that last existed before they evolved, and as a result from 10-50 percent of them could disappear.

“We may very well already be on the breaking edge of a wave of mass extinctions,” Thomas told the annual meeting of the British Association for the Advancement of Science.

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Top scientist’s fears for climate

September 8th, 2006

One of America’s top scientists has said that the world has already entered a state of dangerous climate change.

In his first broadcast interview as president of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, John Holdren told the BBC that the climate was changing much faster than predicted.

“We are not talking anymore about what climate models say might happen in the future.

“We are experiencing dangerous human disruption of the global climate and we’re going to experience more,” Professor Holdren said.

He emphasised the seriousness of the melting Greenland ice cap, saying that without drastic action the world would experience more heatwaves, wild fires and floods.

He added that if the current pace of change continued, a catastrophic sea level rise of 4m (13ft) this century was within the realm of possibility; much higher than previous forecasts.

To put this in perspective, Professor Holdren pointed out that the melting of the Greenland ice cap, alone, could increase world-wide sea levels by 7m (23ft), swamping many cities.

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World’s most wanted: climate change

September 8th, 2006

Human-induced climate change must be treated as an immediate threat to national security and prosperity, says John Ashton, the UK’s climate change envoy. He argues that we must secure a stable climate whatever the cost, as failure to do so will cost far more.

The first priority of any government is to provide the conditions necessary for security and prosperity in return for the taxes that citizens pay.

Climate change is potentially the most serious threat there has ever been to this most fundamental of social contracts.

On 28 August 2005, New Orleans was a prosperous, stable and relatively harmonious city. By the next evening, most of its population had been driven from their homes and lacked access to electricity, food, fresh water and medical services.

Within a week, gunmen roamed the streets as law and order broke down; simmering racial and political tensions exploded as the buck for dealing with the catastrophe – as well as preventing it – was hurled about. For months, neighbouring cities and states were inundated with refugees as the political and racial stresses spilled across the country. New Orleans is unlikely ever fully to recover.

Hurricane Katrina hit a city in the world’s richest nation. If anywhere should have been resilient enough to deal with the force of nature, it was the United States.

The economic and security impacts of extreme climatic events in more vulnerable regions, such as Africa and South Asia, or more strategically important regions, like the Middle East, will be more dramatic.

We can see this already in Africa. A major contributing factor to the conflict in Darfur has been a shift in rainfall that has put nomadic herders and settled pastoralists into conflict with each other.

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060907 – Thursday – back in the USA

September 7th, 2006

We’re back from New Zealand and utterly buried in getting back up to speed with the business and in digging our way out from under two weeks of accumulated accounting and such.  We’ll be back up and running here again soon.

Cheers!

060905 – Tuesday – In the Christchurch YMCA

September 4th, 2006

It’s a bit before 8 AM here. Sharon’s still upstairs sleeping and I’ve just had breakfast. I haven’t given this log of our travels nearly as much attention as I’dexpected to but we’ve just been too busy going places and seeing things. When I’m home in a day or two, I’ll write more and post some of the many photos we’ve taken.

We travel today. Christchurch to Auckland about 2 PM this afternoon and then Auckand to LAX at about 6 PM local.

I have to say that Christchurch is a beautiful city. Hagley Park sits in the middle next to the Central Business District like a jewel. The hills of the Banks Peninsula rise just beside the city to the west and off at a distant to the east are the Southern Alps which divide the South island. Services are good, the streets are clean and the people friendly. On the other hand, prices are high and dealing with some entities like banks can be a ponderous business.

Internet has been a bit of a disappointment. Unlike in the US where free Interet in hotel rooms and public spaces is rapidly becoming a given, here hotels will offer you an Intenet connection at .68 cents a minute. Then there’s Telecom with its Hotspots located around town. It’still pricy and the system was down most of the day, yesterday. I’m typing this on a computer kiosk in the YMCA lobby. It is $2 for 30 Minutes for access to the web and unless your E-mail is web-based, it is no help with that.

Cheers, until I next post from home.

060828 – Monday – Out and about in Christchurch

August 27th, 2006

Several days have now gone by and our adventure in New Zealand continues.   Currently, we’re staying at a hotel named the Fino Casementi which is just across the street from the Crown Plaza where we began.   The room rates are a bit lower here and they have an excellent free breakfast included.

Our biological clocks have finally adjusted to the five hours difference between Pacific Standard Time and new Zealand Time.

We’ve had fun the last few days exploring in and around Christchurch.   Just for fun, to see what’s different and what’s the same, we’ve been going into supermarkets, hardware stores, furniture store and superstores and looking at stuff.  A tall can of Pringles here was $3.65NZD which is $2.37 USD.  In general, things are quit expensive here and salaries are lower.  Sharon’s got a new hat which we paid $75 NZD for ($x USD) – it was her birthday present.

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Yesterday, on Sunday, we took a long ride out to Sumner (Christchurch’s equivalent to Orange County’s Laguna Beach or Seattle’s Kirkland and had a walk on the beach.  Then we drove out onto the Banks Peninsula and explored and took a lot of photos.   There’s still snow on the higher ground from a storm they had a day or two before we arrived.   We ate lunch in Akaroa which is a very fun little town on the central harbor.  The Banks Peninsula is an old extinct volcanic cone jutting into the ocean just to the east of Christchurch.   Long ago, part of the cone’s wall collapsed and the sea came in forming a harbor like Italy’s Santorini or French Polynesia’s Rapa.

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We’ve had one gloomy cold blustery day and several of bright winter sunshine.    They’ve had a hard winter here (worst in 24 years) so everyone is excited to see the fine weather.

Today, we may get out to the botanical gardens which are part of Hagley Park – an 800 acre park in the middle of the city.   Yesterday, we had a lot of fun looking at the various plants and trees which are new to us.   At one point, we found a one-acre natives only nursery and pulled in.  The folks there were very friendly and we had a great time talking about plants and how they do things and how we do things.

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We picked up information on two different techniques which we’d never heard of which may prove to be of great use to us and nurseries like us in western Washington.   One involved copper spray and the other involved felt. I’ve been disappointed with the Internet services offered in the two hotels we’ve stayed in.  Both charge .68NZD/minute and it is a hassle to establish the connection.   Maybe the connection issue has to do with the CAT5 plug on the back of my system but the cost per minute is outrageous.   I’ve discovered that they have a WiFi hotspot down in the lobby and it is a pay as you go as well but I think it is cheaper.

In the next day or so, we hope to strike out into the countryside and see a bit of the West Coast.   I’ll write more soon.

060824 – Thursday – Christchurch Deluxe

August 23rd, 2006

5 PM – Christchruch, we’re back at our hotel.   And what a hotel it is.   But first the back story that brought us here.

After I wrote from LAX last night, we boarded the flight for Auckland, New Zealand, and settled in for a fourteen hour overnight flight.  We has two seats WAY in the back in the tail section.   The plane wasn’t full but it was full enough that any dreams of claiming fours seats and laying out flat were quickly put paid to.

I watched a movie, The Sentinel, and then about 11 PM, I had a glass of wine and a Lunesta and layed back to see if I could sleep.   And, amazingly, I did sleep quite well.   I’m sorry to say that Sharon did not sleep as well and was quite tired today.

About 5 AM local time, we landed at Auckland and had an anxious 20 minutes wondering of our checked luggage had made it – it had.   And then we passed through customs and everything went fine.   There was a jump to Christchurch and looking out the window on the approach was great.  I’ve looked over the maps of the region so much that it was like watching some big new three dimensional map unfold as the mountains and then the Canterbury Plains rolled under us.   And the Banks Pennisula looks huge from Christchurch which isn’t something I would have predicted from the maps.  We made a call from the airport to Tui Campers and a fellow from there came and gave us a ride to their offices and after a few papers were signed, we drove off into Christchurch on the wrong side of the road.

That’s an experiecne that will wake you up.   Every automatic instinct you have is not to be trusted.  Even passing orange cones on the left side of the road.  Because you are on the right side of the car driving but you are used to the left, you are not going to leave enough clearance when you pass by things on the left side.  Sharon said I just barely missed taking out a long line of cones at one point.   At another point, I pulled over to look at the map and smacked the curb on the left because I didn’t allow for most of the car now being to my left.   Then, once in the Central Business District (which they abbreviate CBD here) where our hotel was, we could see the building occassionally between the other buildings but with losing sight of it and getting tangled in angled roads and one-way the other way roads, we had to circle it twice before we were able to make the strategic insertion into their drive-up area.  I was glad to hand the car over to valet parking.

But, once there, things turned nice indeed.  The concierge was very nice and then when we got to the counter, the girl there had our reservation and said that normally this is a slow time of the year but that they have a big conference that they’d over-booked!   But they’d noticed that it was Sharon’s birthday – so they’d solved the problem by upgrading us to the Presidential Suite at the top of the tower!

That sounded pretty good when she said it but it was nothing to actually seeing the suite.   Jeez.  it was two levels on the very top of the building.  The bottom level held a kitchen, a big living room and a dining room with a huge glass table that had ten chairs around it but could have easily sat 12 or 14.   Upstairs, was a large bedroom and a shower with two overhead sprays that could have handled six or eight people and a monsterous tub with jacuzzi fittings that Sharon just told me takes 25 minutes to fill.  After an afternoon spent walking around the CBD, we’ve come back to enjoy our evening of splendor and Sharon’s up filling the monster now.

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When we landed, there were puddles of frozen water on the ground and the pilot said it was -1 C.  It’s been cold and blustery all day but we enjoyed it.  The CBD really is a beautiful place.   A mixture of old churches, new business buildings, executive apartments, wide open squares with statues of Captain Cook and Queen Victoria.  And everywhere we’ve been, everyone we’ve talked to has been unfailingly friendly and helpful.   There are times we have trouble understanding what folks are saying because of the accent and the idioms but it is all good fun.   We bought Sharon a $75 NZD hat for her birthay and she looks great in it.

It’s not long until sunset here looking out across the city.  The scene could be someplace in the Pacific Northwest looking towards the Olympics.  It is really hard to credit how far away we are from home and that we can point straight down at the floor and say that almost everyone we know is down there on the other side of the globe.

6 PM – Just back from trying the big tub.   Yep, it’s good.   I did, indeed, feel presidential.

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We’re going to order something small in (this all sound just so F. Scott Fitzgeral, eh?) and sit about and see what passes for TV here in New Zealand.

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060822 – Tuesday – at LAX

August 22nd, 2006

We’re in the midst of a four hour layover at LAX after flying down from SeaTac.  So far I’ve had a $5.16 draft beer and Sharon’s had a $3.24 Gatoraid.  Now, I’m typing this in on a $.25/minute public Internet terminal.

Security has been reasonalbe.  I lost my can of shaving creme – silly me for carrying it in my carry-on.  Sharon has to go throuhg special procedures because she’s got a defibrillator.  But, we’re here and it’s good.

I’m thinking that the next time I step off a plane, it’ll be Thursday and I’ll be on the other side of the world.

Cheers until then.

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