Should we care about the human future?

April 20th, 2012

– I generally like Curt Cobb’s writings.   Here’ he’s discussing possible human futures including the one I’ve advocated in The Plan.

– But, he says, it might not be worth doing because at some time in the future, they might change their minds and throw all our good works aside.

– In the end, he decides that our best option might be to seek to live in a sustainable fashion today because that leads to happier lives and that we give up “the inherently impossible task of seeking to assure human continuity indefinitely into the future“.

– Interesting but I think it ignores that many of us now already understand the inherent virtues of living sustainable.  

– But many of our kind also see the world as their playground within which to accumulate money and power and they have no notion of sustainability that extends past the end of their lives unless it is to leave a pile of money and priveledge (gathered at the expense of the rest of us) to their progeny.

– No, I think Cobb’s naive here.  Some of us ‘doing good’ now, even if it makes us feel personally good, isn’t going to assure future generations of a sustainable world.  

– And I don’t buy his argument that there’s little point in leaving future generations a sustainable world.  

– One doesn’t give gifts or do the right thing because of quid-pro-quo considerations.  Some things are inherently right in and of themselves and what others do or don’t do down the line will be their business (and their karma).   We can only do the best we are capable of now and leave to future generations the clearest understandings we can of human nature and its inherent limitations and then the ball’s in their court.

– On the other hand, if we do not act, the possibility of a sustainable world will never fall within their grasp and we, these generations living now, will have deprived future generations from having a sustainable world to save.

– Here’s his article.   I’ve marked in red the sections I find of particular interest.

– Dennis

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In virtually every institution in human society, we humans concern ourselves with the continuation of the species. We have children, we raise them in some sort of family, we educate them for the world of work and citizenship, and then we see them couple and start the cycle all over again. All the while we seek to defend ourselves from disease, violence, economic deprivation, in fact, anything that might cut short our lives or those of our children. It ought to be self-evident that human beings do care about the future. What I want to examine is whether they should and if so, how much.

For this I will need to take you through some simple thought experiments which will test just how much you might do for the sake of human continuity and just how far into the future you might project your own responsibility.

It is a truism that parents concern themselves with the well-being and happiness of their children and grandchildren (and great grandchildren if they live that long). So, a concern about the general state of human society will extend two or perhaps three generations into the future or roughly 50 to 75 years. After that, it’s hard for us to put a lot of emotion into making things right for people we will never know.

But let’s say you have an altruistic streak that transcends time. You actually believe that people you will never meet deserve your consideration now. You believe that you should leave them a society that makes a good life possible, however you conceive of that good life. How far into the future will this concern carry? 100 years? 1,000 years? 10,000 years? I sense your commitment fading the further out in time I go. After all, how can any of us possibly foresee what human life will be like in 10,000 years (assuming humans survive that long)? How can we even conceive of what a good life will look like then?

Now, let me throw a little cold water on your warm-blooded altruism. Let’s say that today we as a global society decided to do everything we need to do to create what is roughly speaking a sustainable society. This would include ending our reliance on fossil fuels, adopting organic farming techniques, letting go of consumerism as an organizing principle, harvesting renewable resources only at the rate they can be renewed, gradually but drastically reducing population over time until it is below the Earth’s carrying capacity for humans, and creating a cradle-to-cradle resource management system for all finite resources. Certainly, this list could be expanded. But the point is that the system we create could, in theory, be bequeathed to humans for as long as there is a planet Earth.

Now, what if at some point, say, 500 years into this grand experiment, a society arises that decides all these rules on what we can and cannot do should be repealed, especially the restriction on burning fossil fuels? So, today we make great sacrifices to move from a doomed society to one that is sustainable out of concern and respect for future generations. Then, some future generation blows it by undoing everything we’ve done. How’s that for slap in the face? Except, of course, you won’t be around to actually feel the slap. Still, this thought experiment forces us to confront a very ugly possibility and question how much we should sacrifice now for a potentially ungrateful and lethal generation in the future.

Now, let’s go even further into the future. Let’s say humans remain responsibly sustainable indefinitely. How long will that be? Well, the fossil record suggests that mammalian species such as humans have an average lifespan of 2 million years. So, if we date humans using the classification Homo sapiens, then we are a young species, perhaps 200,000 years old. If we date humans back to the beginning of the entire genus of hominids at least 4 million years ago, then humans are essentially in evolutionary overtime.

But no matter what time line you use, one thing remains true: The chances that we humans will defy the logic of the fossil record seem slim. Some 99 percent of all species that have ever existed on Earth have disappeared. We are very unlikely to evolve into some superior being that carries on the traditions and cultures of humans. We are much more likely to go extinct at some point no matter how sustainably we live as a species.

And finally, let’s assume that somehow future humans evolve and adapt so well that they are alive billions of years from now. At some point, our Sun will expand as part of its death throes and consume the Earth. No more life at all on Earth at that point. (I know some of you are saying that perhaps humans will populate the stars. I see no realistic prospect that humans could actually do this even if they could find Earth-like planets. First, the distances would likely be so great that even highly advance spaceships would still take so long to reach such planets that the chance of survival would be small. Second, the Earth-like planet would almost certainly have micro-organisms that would kill humans almost as soon as they landed. Instead of the Andromeda strain coming to us, we would go to it.)

As I’ve lengthened the time line, no doubt you’ve found yourself wondering why any of us today should be concerned about the sustainability of human society in a future that is so vast that it is several orders of magnitude longer than human civilization has so far existed. Good question. The continuity of human beings simply cannot be guaranteed indefinitely into the future regardless of what our genes, our minds, or several hundred Star Trek episodes may tell us. We are largely powerless in that regard.

Now, I am not minimizing the impulse to make the world a sustainable place for our progeny. I recognize that as a very strong drive. And, it is one that is featured in countless environmentally-oriented appeals. But I am looking for bedrock here. Is there a way of thinking about sustainability that doesn’t involve the inherently impossible task of seeking to assure human continuity indefinitely into the future? I think I have an answer.

Sustainable practices must be in and of themselves a path to a good life. If that’s the case, then they are worth implementing simply because they lead to happier and more fulfilling lives. We can take a cue from the simplicity movement which embraced simple living as more fulfilling. Let me illustrate. I ride my bicycle for most of my errands and for exercise as well. Even if there were no climate change problem, even if there were no peak oil problem, even if there were no sustainability crisis, riding my bicycle would still enhance the quality of my life. I’m more fit. I’m more in touch with my physical surroundings. Typically, I’m still moving when traffic is halted. I can get closer to my destination. I pay no parking fees. I find myself now in a kind of universal brotherhood with every other cyclist on the road (a very underrated plus). I could go on. But I think it would be possible to say something similar about any practice that is truly sustainable.

I’m not suggesting that we give up on the rhetoric of creating a sustainable future for our children. But I am suggesting adding to that pitch that almost everything we call sustainable would make us happier even absent the problems we are trying to solve. That means people would ultimately have no regrets about adopting sustainable habits because, in general, they give us a fuller, more compelling life.

– To the original…

 

 

America’s problems in a nutshell

April 20th, 2012

– A friend of my picked up this perceptive comment on the NYT Blogsphere.   I thought it tied a lot of stuff up quite succinctly.

– Dennis

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“It strikes me that America has two fundamental, inter-related problems that paralyze it and prevent it from adapting and changing:

One is its constitution and structure of governance. Senate filabustering rules, a politicised judiciary and supreme court, gerrymandered congressional districts, a politicised electoral process, the combination of chief executive and head of state in the same person, an incessant election cycle and so many other flaws means that American government just doesn’t work very well. No wonder it’s system of democracy isn’t replicated by other democracies around the world. It’s not fit-for-purpose.

The other source of paralyisis is ideology. The deification of the founders and the constitution prevents adaptation. The insularity of American exceptionalism prevents global benchmarking and best-practice. The rabidity of individualism prevents social solutions that would benefit the nation as a whole. Beyond the chanting of pledges and the waving of flags, large parts of America have decended into a religious-based extremism that turns its back on truth itself.

The Soviet Union collapsed because its ideology could not adapt to human and economic reality. China succeeds because, when faced with the failure of its ideology it abandoned it and instead embraced pragmatism and did what worked.

America, tied down with unworkable governance and inflexible ideology, seems to be following the Soviet model.”

– Research thanks to Rolf A.

 

American Health Insurance … revisited

April 18th, 2012

– We’ve been here before, readers.   But I feel like I need to revisit the subject again for the edification and amazement of my U.S. readers.

– I just bought New Zealand Health Insurance to cover myself when I’m in the USA for 78 days from July 8th to September 23rd this year.

– Cost in New Zealand dollars was $386.55 which is currently about $302.00 in U.S. dollars.

– And this policy is much more than just simple healthcare coverage.   It’s also travel insurance for lost baggage, the consequences of cancelled flights and other things.  

– If I was to get seriously sick in the USA (a potentially very expensive thing to do), the New Zealand insurance folks will fly me home to New Zealand on their dime and I’ll be treated here.

– When I was still in the U.S., married and running a business, we paid each about $425.00 a month for our medical coverage.   There was a $2500 deductible on the policy so we had to spend that amount each up front before we ever got a dime back from the insurance company for medical expenses.   And, even then, when they did begin to pay, it was only 80% of our costs.

– So, in the U.S., I had to play $20.82 per day (see Note 1) to get 80% coverage and with this New Zealand policy, which is covering me on the other side of the planet, I’m paying $3.87 per day (see Note 2) for 100% coverage.   Interesting, eh?

– Some months ago, I had a small heart attack here in New Zealand.   You can read about it here:    

– The long and the short of it is I went to an emergency clinic, I had a ride in an ambulance, I spent two nights in the hospital, I had an angioplasty and I had a stent inserted into one of my coronary arteries.   My total cost was less than $200 dollars ($164.00 U.S.).

– Many in the U.S. have a hard time believing that the country has been so thoroughly captured by corporations.   And many still believe the country is a fully functional representative democracy.  But both assumptions are seriously flawed.  

– The outrageously high cost of medical care in the U.S. is because enormous profits are being taken from the system by the medical corporations.  

– And our representative democracy has been deeply corrupted by big money.  Money that pays to keep the country’s laws arranged so that the looting can continue.

– Don’t believe it?   Then ask yourself how the richest country in the world is also the only major western democracy in which this sort of stuff goes on?

– Dennis

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Note 1 – that’s $425/month * 12 = $5100.00/year and if I divide that by 365, it is $13.97/day.  But then in order to get any thing paid to me, I also have to spend the $2500 deductible which is another $6.85/day so the total I have to spend per day in the U.S. to get to the 80% coverage point is $13.97 + $6.85 = $20.82/day.

Note 2 – I’m paying $302.00 (in U.S. dollars) for 78 days so I’m paying $3.87/day to get to the 100% coverage point.

Truthout and The Plan

April 16th, 2012

Truthout is a site I follow frequently.   Today, they’ve stated the core problem before us as:

We, as a species, are coming up against a fundamental choice: Do we embrace our potential for good by coming together and working to reverse the damage we’ve done to each other and to the planet? Or do we choose the path of exploitation, separation and destruction? It’s the duty of the storytellers – independent journalists, writers and media makers – to use their time to try to make this choice clear. 

– This is the motivation for the ideas I’m calling The Plan.   We need, as they’ve said here, to choose to ‘reverse the damage’ or to continue to ‘choose the path of exploitation’.

– dennis

 

The Plan

April 16th, 2012

I’ve created a new category and a new permanent page; both are called The Plan.

Anything I write or republish that bears on the ideas behind The Plan will be linked to with the new catagory.

And I will maintain the new permanent page, The Plan, as one of the central ideas of this Blog.   Much as the concepts of The Perfect Storm Hypothesis, Eden Lost and our Biological Imperatives are central themes.

To read The Plan, click here: or click on the words The Plan in the right side column under Permanent Pages.

Intelligence Study Links Low I.Q. To Prejudice, Racism, Conservatism

April 4th, 2012

Are racists dumb? Do conservatives tend to be less intelligent than liberals? A provocative new study from Brock University in Ontario suggests the answer to both questions may be a qualified yes.

The study, published in Psychological Science, showed that people who score low on I.Q. tests in childhood are more likely to develop prejudiced beliefs and socially conservative politics in adulthood.

I.Q., or intelligence quotient, is a score determined by standardized tests, but whether the tests truly reveal intelligence remains a topic of hot debate among psychologists.

Dr. Gordon Hodson, a professor of psychology at the university and the study’s lead author, said the finding represented evidence of a vicious cycle: People of low intelligence gravitate toward socially conservative ideologies, which stress resistance to change and, in turn, prejudice, he told LiveScience.

Why might less intelligent people be drawn to conservative ideologies? Because such ideologies feature “structure and order” that make it easier to comprehend a complicated world, Dodson said. “Unfortunately, many of these features can also contribute to prejudice,” he added.

Dr. Brian Nosek, a University of Virginia psychologist, echoed those sentiments.

“Reality is complicated and messy,” he told The Huffington Post in an email. “Ideologies get rid of the messiness and impose a simpler solution. So, it may not be surprising that people with less cognitive capacity will be attracted to simplifying ideologies.”

But Nosek said less intelligent types might be attracted to liberal “simplifying ideologies” as well as conservative ones.

In any case, the study has taken the Internet by storm, with some outspoken liberals saying that it validates their suspicions about conservatives and conservatives arguing thatthe research has been misinterpreted.

– To the original…

 – I blogged this other story ( Does Your Personality Influence Who You Vote For?) some time ago and it seems related…

– And this one (Brains of liberals, conservatives may work differently, study finds) as well!   Damn, look out, Bubbas!  We may be onto something here…

 

 

Why the world is running out of helium

April 4th, 2012

– I’ve been following this for years since one of my long-term hobbies has been a deep interest in The Elements of the Periodic Table.    

– The situation with Helium just screams ‘investment opportunity’ to me.   I just wish I has some cash to do something about it.

– Dennis

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A US law means supplies of the gas – a vital component of MRI scanners – are vanishing fast

It is the second-lightest element in the Universe, has the lowest boiling-point of any gas and is commonly used through the world to inflate party balloons. But helium is also a non-renewable resource and the world’s reserves of the precious gas are about to run out, a shortage that is likely to have far-reaching repercussions.

Scientists have warned that the world’s most commonly used inert gas is being depleted at an astonishing rate because of a law passed in the United States in 1996 which has effectively made helium too cheap to recycle.

The law stipulates that the US National Helium Reserve, which is kept in a disused underground gas field near Amarillo, Texas – by far the biggest store of helium in the world – must all be sold off by 2015, irrespective of the market price.

The experts warn that the world could run out of helium within 25 to 30 years, potentially spelling disaster for hospitals, whose MRI scanners are cooled by the gas in liquid form, and anti-terrorist authorities who rely on helium for their radiation monitors, as well as the millions of children who love to watch their helium-filled balloons float into the sky.

– More…

– And, see this:  

 

 

Why some of us are leaving the U.S.A.

April 4th, 2012

– These comments were part of a larger discussion in which some of us were discussing why we’d immigrated from the US to New Zealand.   Some felt ‘pulled’ by New Zealand’s attractions while other felt more that events in the U.S. were ‘pushing’ them to find another place to live.  

– Chanah’s comments here clearly show that she and her family felt they were in the ‘pushed’ camp.

– Dennis

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“We came back in 2004. We did NOT come because we fell in love with New Zealand-we came because we wanted to get the Hell out of the United States while we still could (before we hit the age of 40). We came because they were charging us over $500 per month for Blue Cross health insurance that only covered 80% of the doctor THEY chose after we paid $500 deductable. Pretty crappy health care for a Registered Nurse. We came because a root canal ran me nearly $2000 and there was no dental coverage available. We came because we had to pay nearly $300 for a bottle of eye drops for my husbands glaucoma (that now costs us $3 BTW)-we came because we needed a credit card just to afford basic medications and co-pays. We came because I was tired of having to pay “malpractice cover” in order to keep my job. We came because after 911 my Civil Engineer of a husband had nearly $300 per month deducated from his pay for insurance in the event that a terrorist blew up a bridge that he happened to have signed off on. We came because the families of those killed on 911 are now suing those who happen to still be alive that built the World Trade Centers and while personal people have donated money the US governement has done little to nothing to support the families of those lost. We came because my nephew was forced to join the US Army in order to afford College/University and now that his term is up the Army is making him stay on additonal tours of duty against his will. We came because young people in high schools feel forced to go to college whether they want to or not in order to “get a job”. There is little to no respect for the hardworking plumbers, carpenters, labours who find it very difficult to make a decent living to raise a family on. We came because we felt the only way to be safe from the “Mad Cow Disease” that was being covered up was for us to becme vegetarian. Most important, we came because New Zealand offered us Permanent Residency and Australia only offered work visas. The first few years I was miserable. We had to live on savings and minimum wage jobs (we did not have jobs when we came). Am I happy? Actually I think I have come around to the point that I am a lot happier here then I would be in Australia. We’ve had a child (FREE-BTW) and  I KNOW I’m happier raising Rachel here then in America. About the government-the earthquake and its aftermath has given me a whole new respect for the New Zealand government. They are not “unreachable” or “untouchable”  like in the USA. If the Kiwis don’t like something that is going on they WILL hold their officials accountable. And, if that does not work they WILL vote them out of office-and the officials here know it. There are time AND financial limits on elections…all of this primary and sub-primary crap simply does not go on here. When I went to vote I was given an orange  marker to check the box of who I wanted. I forgot my ID so I simply gave my address and phone number and was permitted to vote. I then placed my ballot into a cardboard box….no hanging chads or “rigged” machines here in New Zealand.  What would make my life perfect? For my family to financially reach a point that we can travel to the States yearly-see family & experience the toursit sites. Each trip to the USA is “fun” but it leaves me happier then ever to return to New Zealand…I view the USA a bit like an amusement park-love to go eat, shop and see friends but when the day is over I’m happy to return “home” to some normality and stability.”

– Chanah Luppens – Christchurch, New Zealand

 

Housing NZ head questioned over trips

April 4th, 2012

– This is the kind of insider trash that goes on in the U.S. all the time.  I.e., folks work in the government agency that regulates an industry, they meet with folks from that industry, they get cosy with them, then new laws, favorable to the industry, are passed and then the individuals involved leave government service and end up on the boards of the industries they previously regulated.

– I would have hoped that New Zealand was smarter than this but this story would indicate not.

– Dennis

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Two former senior Housing New Zealand executives went on a $35,000 trip to visit a software company in Britain just months before both quit Housing NZ and set up a private company which went into partnership with the same software company.

Labour housing spokeswoman Annette King yesterday questioned Housing NZ chief executive Lesley McTurk about a trip to London and Canada in June 2011 by Stephen McArthur and Roy Baker. The two were senior executives at Housing NZ who left soon afterward to set up their own consultancy firm, Tinakori.

The trip to London was for a conference held by Northgate – a software company Housing NZ has contracted for a major part of an $80 million IT upgrade. Northgate is now also a partner for Tinakori which was set up in February this year. Mr McArthur left HNZ in August 2011 and Mr Baker left in December 2011. Both are now directors of Tinakori.

Mr McArthur was the chief operating officer of Housing New Zealand and Mr Baker was the chief financial officer – both had significant roles in the IT project’s development.

Ms King asked Ms McTurk if she was aware the pair intended to leave Housing NZ when she approved the travel costs and whether there were questions about conflicts of interest.

Ms McTurk said she had no knowledge at that point that they planned to leave and believed it was appropriate the pair went to the conference given their role with the IT upgrade.

– to the original story…

 

2.4 million victims of human trafficking

April 4th, 2012

The U.N. crime-fighting office says that 2.4 million people across the globe are victims of human trafficking at any one time, and 80 percent of them are being exploited as sexual slaves.

Yuri Fedotov, the head of the U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime, told a daylong General Assembly meeting on trafficking that 17 percent are trafficked to perform forced labor, including in homes and sweat shops.

He said US $32 billion is being earned every year by unscrupulous criminals running human trafficking networks, and two out of every three victims are women.

Fighting these criminals “is a challenge of extraordinary proportions,” Fedotov said.

“At any one time, 2.4 million people suffer the misery of this humiliating and degrading crime,” he said.

According to Fedotov’s Vienna-based office, only one out of 100 victims of trafficking is ever rescued.

Fedotov called for coordinated local, regional and international responses that balance “progressive and proactive law enforcement” with actions that combat “the market forces driving human trafficking in many destination countries.”

– More…