NZ budget almost shock-proof: IMF

September 6th, 2010

– Another thing to add to the list of reasons why I am here.

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New Zealand is among only a handful of advanced economies where the government’s budget is best placed to deal with “unexpected shocks”, an International Monetary Fund (IMF) report says.

The National government has been criticised by the opposition for increasing debt to fund tax cuts during tough economic times.

But the IMF staff report released yesterday found New Zealand had the second smallest government debt out of the 23 advanced economies it analysed, suggesting the country’s budget would be well-placed to deal with future shocks.

The Washington-based institution examined a country’s “debt limit” based on its historical track record and its current debt level, which it describes as the “fiscal space”.

“Among the advanced economies, Australia, Denmark, Korea, New Zealand and Norway generally have the most fiscal space to deal with unexpected shocks,” the report said.

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– Research thanks to Tony H.

Military Study Warns of a Potentially Drastic Oil Crisis

September 6th, 2010

– The German military has come to the same conclusion that the US’s military did some time ago about the coming consequences of Peak Oil.   major players like China have been moving quietly for some time to secure future oil supplies to keep themselves running.   Soon, as things get clearer, we’re going to have a global game of musical chairs except it will be oil that someone is short of each time the music stops.

– These issues have been being discussed quietly for some time now.

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A study by a German military think tank has analyzed how “peak oil” might change the global economy. The internal draft document — leaked on the Internet — shows for the first time how carefully the German government has considered a potential energy crisis.

The term “peak oil” is used by energy experts to refer to a point in time when global oil reserves pass their zenith and production gradually begins to decline. This would result in a permanent supply crisis — and fear of it can trigger turbulence in commodity markets and on stock exchanges.

The issue is so politically explosive that it’s remarkable when an institution like the Bundeswehr, the German military, uses the term “peak oil” at all. But a military study currently circulating on the German blogosphere goes even further.

The study is a product of the Future Analysis department of the Bundeswehr Transformation Center, a think tank tasked with fixing a direction for the German military. The team of authors, led by Lieutenant Colonel Thomas Will, uses sometimes-dramatic language to depict the consequences of an irreversible depletion of raw materials. It warns of shifts in the global balance of power, of the formation of new relationships based on interdependency, of a decline in importance of the western industrial nations, of the “total collapse of the markets” and of serious political and economic crises.

The study, whose authenticity was confirmed to SPIEGEL ONLINE by sources in government circles, was not meant for publication. The document is said to be in draft stage and to consist solely of scientific opinion, which has not yet been edited by the Defense Ministry and other government bodies.

The lead author, Will, has declined to comment on the study. It remains doubtful that either the Bundeswehr or the German government would have consented to publish the document in its current form. But the study does show how intensively the German government has engaged with the question of peak oil.

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– Research thanks to Tony H.

Shake the strongest recorded in NZ

September 6th, 2010

new-zealand-quake

The fault that caused the 7.1 earthquake has been dormant for at least 16,000 years – and produced the strongest ground-shaking recorded in a New Zealand quake, GNS Science says.

Natural hazards manager Kelvin Berryman said the highest ground-shaking measurement of 1.25 times the strength of gravity was recorded at Greendale, near the epicentre.

The quake produced a 22km-long surface rupture and up to four metres of horizontal displacement in alluvial terraces deposited about 16,000 years ago at the end of the last glaciation.

When that period ended, rivers brought large amounts of gravel from the high country and distributed it throughout Canterbury, many metres thick in some places.

“Before Saturday, there was nothing in the landscape that would have suggested there was an active fault beneath the Darfield and Rolleston areas,” Dr Berryman said.

“Geologists have no information on when the fault last ruptured, as it was unknown until last weekend. All we can say at this stage is that this newly revealed fault has not ruptured since the gravels were deposited about 16,000 years ago.

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Earthquake postscripts 2

September 6th, 2010

Aftershocks continuing three days after the ‘main event’.   Had two 5.2 events overnight.   I just laid in bed and felt the building moving around me.   It makes a lot of noise as it shifts and then resettles.   I’m not really worried at this point.  The building has proven itself sound and six floors up, there’s no place to run anyway.

Colombo St. looking towards Cathedral Square

The army has turned out to help the police control access while the safety of hundreds of buildings are checked.   Other buildings are actively being torn down as quickly as possible to protect people.

Green army helicopters can be seen flying over the city.   It all seems quite surreal.   Everyone I’ve talked to seems to feel that time has been subtly altered somehow and that we’re in a bit of an alternate universe of something.

The news reports always show the heavily damaged areas but there are large areas that escaped without damage.   But, it is a sobering figure that of all the homes in Christchurch, a full one-third are damaged.

News story is here.

Earthquake postscripts

September 5th, 2010

Still getting aftershocks in the 4 to 5 range here.   The NZ Army has been called in to help secure access to the central business district (CBD) as the police are stretched so tight.   The building inspectors are working their way through all the buildings in the CBD flagging each as Green (OK), Yellow (Use Caution) and Red (no way!).   Hopefully, in a few days the situation for all buildings will be known.

I’m working at home today which I rather like.  Working for a seriously high-tech company is a pleasure.   We’ve all got VPN access to the systems at work and sitting here at my desk at home is just like sitting there, downtown.

The office was quite a mess though.  Bookshelves tossed, plants toppled and general chaos.   We had two engineers there on US coverage when the quake hit Saturday morning.   I can’t even imagine what that would have been like up on the 10th floor.

7.1 Earthquake – Christchurch, New Zealand – 04 Sept 2010

September 4th, 2010

At 4:35 AM yesterday, I was shaken from my bed by a huge earthquake.    The biggest one here in New Zealand since the quake in 1931 destroyed much of Napier on the North island.

I jumped out of bed and stood in the doorway to the bedroom and just hung on.   The apartment I live in is six floors up so there was no question of running outside.

The first shock was only a precursor to what followed and as I stood in the doorway, it just seemed to get worse.   I remember thinking that if it got bad enough, the building would go down and I’d be almost certainly be killed.   But, there was nothing to do but hang on and see what would happen next.

Eventually, it slowed down.   The building was, as you can imagine, swaying and creaking and making a lot of noise.   And there were the sounds of things falling and breaking everywhere.  The building continued to move and settle for quite awhile afterwards.

While the quake was in progress and I was in the doorway, I had a clear view out the bedroom window to the west and I could see great flashes of light illuminate the sky several times during the quake.   At the time, I assumed they must be electrical transformers exploding.   The lights flickered on and off and I heard my computer turn itself back on in the middle of the quake.

When it finally stopped, the lights were still on which surprised me.

But what surprised me more was when I turned around and walked into the living room.

Just after the quake - my living room.

I don’t know what I expected after an earthquake that big, but I remember being very surprised that both the bookcases and the TV table and TV were all down on the floor and my books were everywhere.

As you might think, I just stumbled about and looked at everything for several minutes and then I remembered that I should probably go outside.   I put on my pants and got my keys, shirt, coat (2C or 35F outside) and shoes and went downstairs to the parking lot where most of the occupants had gathered.

Some of the long-term people were saying that when these buildings were built 10 years ago, they’d really over-engineered them for earthquakes and that tonight that had all paid off.   I couldn’t have agreed more.

I walked around the complex (as did the building manager and several others, I’m sure) and listened for water from broken pipes and checked for cracks, broken windows (none) and fallen masonry (only a small amount).

I’m writing this on Sunday evening nearly 36 hours later and we are still having aftershocks you can clearly feel.

When the sun came up Saturday morning, I went out for a walk in the neighborhood to see the damage.

You can find photos of Christchurch after the quake on-line here.

And here.

I have to say that building codes are wonderful things.   Only three people were injured badly here and no one died.   Contrast that with quakes in the third world such as the recent one in Haiti.

Some areas survived with very little damage and others were badly trashed as you’ll see in the photos.   Rail lines broken, bridges damaged, ground lifted or fallen, roads buckled, water mains broken and electricity off to much of the city.

About the only thing that turned out nice is that Saturday was a beautiful and unseasonably warm day.

It felt a bit like some sort of strange party as everyone was out walking and looking at the damage.   Cafes and coffee shops, if they were open, were jammed.

My place is put back into order.   The rest of the city will take months and many millions of dollars.   The building where I work seems to be intact but I’ve been told that we’ll be working from home for a few days and that should be different and interesting.

The good news?   There probably won’t be another event like this here in my lifetime now that the fault has released some of its energy.

Take a deep breath – why the world is running out of helium

August 29th, 2010

– Not entirely sure if I’ve written on this subject before.   But, if I had money to invest, I can think of three areas where I’d probably focus myself.   Helium, Lithium and the Norwegian Kroner.

– The first two because they are chemical elements and they have unique properties that nothing else can duplicate and they are here in earth in finite amounts and our demand for them is rising.  And looks strongly like it will continue to rise.

– We know where virtually all of the Helium is on Earth is and, as the article documents, we are not conserving it very well while our need for it looks to continue to rise indefinitely.   A good bet, I’d say.

– Lithium is coming into its own because it is an essential ingredient in the zillions of batteries we are soon going to be needing and using for cars; among other things.   Bolivia has a bunch of it and the world’s major corporation are in a lather to get their hands on it.   And Bolivia’s people’s president, is having the audacity to say that the profits and benefits of mining and selling the stuff should accrue to the Bolivian people (can you imagine?).  The CIA took Allende down for far less cheek than this.   Now they are saying that vast amounts of Lithium have been discovered in Afghanistan.  That should prove interesting.

– And then Norwegian Kroners.  Well, the Norwegians are just about the only ones who’ve had vast oil wealth fall on their head that haven’t rushed out to build the world’s tallest building for the country’s ego or a personal ski-jump for each of their citizens.

– Instead, they’ve created one of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds and then had the audacity to invest it ethically.  An investment that is beating a lot of countries investing in crap.   If I was looking for a stable currency to hold, my money would be on the Norwegian Kroner.

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It is the second-lightest element in the Universe, has the lowest boiling-point of any gas and is commonly used through the world to inflate party balloons.

But helium is also a non-renewable resource and the world’s reserves of the precious gas are about to run out, a shortage that is likely to have far-reaching repercussions.

Scientists have warned that the world’s most commonly used inert gas is being depleted at an astonishing rate because of a law passed in the United States in 1996 which has effectively made helium too cheap to recycle.

The law stipulates that the US National Helium Reserve, which is kept in a disused underground gas field near Amarillo, Texas – by far the biggest store of helium in the world – must all be sold off by 2015, irrespective of the market price.

The experts warn that the world could run out of helium within 25 to 30 years, potentially spelling disaster for hospitals, whose MRI scanners are cooled by the gas in liquid form, and anti-terrorist authorities who rely on helium for their radiation monitors, as well as the millions of children who love to watch their helium-filled balloons float into the sky.

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What Happens When You Die? Evidence Suggests Time Simply Reboots

August 19th, 2010

– I’m not at all sure what to think of this piece.   I do know that ‘time’ is one of the most fascinating subjects to think about.   So fundamental to our very existence and so unfathomable.

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What happens when we die? Do we rot into the ground, or do we go to heaven (or hell, if we’ve been bad)? Experiments suggest the answer is simpler than anyone thought. Without the glue of consciousness, time essentially reboots.

The mystery of life and death can’t be examined by visiting the Galapagos or looking through a microscope. It lies deeper. It involves our very selves. We awake in the present. There are stairs below us that we appear to have climbed; there are stairs above us that go upward into the unknown future. But the mind stands at the door by which we entered and gives us the memories by which we go about our day. Everything is ordered and predictable. We’re like cuckoo birds who appear through a door each morning. We fancy there’s a clockwork set in motion at the beginning of time.

But if you remove everything from space, what’s left? Nothing. The same applies for time — you can’t put it in a jar. You can’t see through the bone surrounding your brain (everything you experience is information in your mind). Biocentrism tells us space and time aren’t objects — they’re the mind’s tools for putting everything together.

More…

Four stories on China that paint the future

August 18th, 2010

– I’ve been thinking that China’s future is going to be, to a very large extent, our future.   She’s grown so big so fast that the equations of world power have shifted visibly in a mater of  few decades.

– But, she’s hard to predict.  Her power is growing but so is the danger of self-implosion as the tension between the wealth of her cities and the grinding poverty of her rural poor come ever more into conflict.   She’s growing industrially but she’s poisoning the very land and water she stands on to do so.  And, her military power, thanks to the greed of the west and the balance of trade surpluses she’s enjoyed for so long, is growing to world stature while the internal pressures within the vast nation are threatening to tear her apart.

– And all of us watch fascinated as if we are mice watching a cat that hasn’t seen us yet slinking into the room.

So, four stories below that illustrate some of these problems and then a link at the end to all the stories I’ve reported on here on Samadhisoft about China.   Read it all and get a glimpse of all our futures.

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DEFORESTATION AND DESERTIFICATION IN CHINA

water pollution in china

Beijing’s Desert Storm

US says China’s military has seen secret expansion

all Samadhisoft’s China’ stories

Bike agenda spins cities toward U.N. control, Maes warns

August 18th, 2010

– Some of my American friends wonder why I left the US to live in New Zealand.   Well, here’s one reason – the nut cases that are increasingly part of the American political scene.

– This fellow is the Republican party’s candidate for Governor of Colorado – and he thinks bicycle transportation is a UN plot to subvert American values <roll of the eyes>.

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Republican gubernatorial candidate Dan Maes is warning voters that Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper’s policies, particularly his efforts to boost bike riding, are “converting Denver into a United Nations community.”

“This is all very well-disguised, but it will be exposed,” Maes told about 50 supporters who showed up at a campaign rally last week in Centennial.

Maes said in a later interview that he once thought the mayor’s efforts to promote cycling and other environmental initiatives were harmless and well-meaning. Now he realizes “that’s exactly the attitude they want you to have.”

“This is bigger than it looks like on the surface, and it could threaten our personal freedoms,” Maes said.

He added: “These aren’t just warm, fuzzy ideas from the mayor. These are very specific strategies that are dictated to us by this United Nations program that mayors have signed on to.”

Maes said in a later interview that he was referring to Denver’s membership in the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives, an international association that promotes sustainable development and has attracted the membership of more than 1,200 communities, 600 of which are in the United States.

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