Climate Change Effects In California

April 13th, 2009

A biennial report released April 1 by a team of experts that advises California’s governor suggests that climate changes are poised to affect virtually every sector of the state’s economy and most of its ecosystems. Significant impacts will likely occur under even moderate scenarios of global greenhouse emissions and associated climate change, but without action, severe and costly climate change impacts are possible across the state.

The state Climate Action Team (CAT) report uses updated, comprehensive scientific research to outline environmental and economic climate impacts. Its authors include Dan Cayan, a climate scientist at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, and a member of the CAT steering team.

A broad collaboration of scientists, mostly from state academic and government agencies, provided a large set of technical papers that form the underpinnings for much of the CAT report. Assessments include the impacts of sea level rise, higher temperatures, increased wildfires, decreased water supplies, increased energy demand, among others, on the state’s environment, industries and economic prosperity. Each of the papers has undergone peer review by technical experts in private, public and governmental entities.

Impacts of climate change to California’s coast, agriculture, forest and communities have been known and studied for years; however the studies that support the CAT report suggest that actual greenhouse gas emissions are outstripping 2006 projections. Of particular interest are the several papers focusing on the impacts of a rise in sea levels to coastal communities and increased potential of wildfires to residential areas.

“The Climate Action Team plays an essential role in the implementation of the state’s climate initiatives and is guided by these important technical studies to ensure policy decisions are based on sound science,” said Linda Adams, Secretary for Environmental Protection and Chair of the state’s CAT. “Any delay in fighting global warming would be detrimental to our economic stability – costing us billions of dollars and dampening the state’s most important economic sectors. Taking immediate action on climate change is essential to slow the projected rate of warming. We also need to make smarter decisions in order to anticipate and adapt to the changes.”

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 – Note, the red highlighting is mine.

China Flexes its Muscles and Finds Support in a Bid to Dump the Dollar as the World’s Main Reserve Currency

April 12th, 2009

titanic.jpgI’ve said before that there’s another big shoe waiting to drop.  

– One has to smile thinking about the folks in Washington, D.C. thinking that if they can just get the bail-out monies distributed correctly that it will light a fire and the U.S. economy will roar back to life.   Maybe, but the world is bigger than just what’s happening in the U.S. Capital.

– We owe China a huge sum of money and no one has made a convincing case, that I’ve seen, that there’s a pathway open before us via which the U.S. becomes a net generator of wealth again.   Rather, on the path we’re on, we will very likely continue to increase our foreign debt as we essentially ‘kite’ our checks by selling enough U.S. bonds this year to pay off our debt obligations from last year and have a bit left over to spend on pretending that we’re solvent.   Next year?   Repeat the same formula.

– This isn’t fooling anyone overseas.   But, the only reason they keep buying our bonds is to avoid the near-term pain if they stop and we’re forced to default on our debt either through simply not paying it or by cranking up the money printing presses and printing off enough to pay them.  Of course, printing money won’t really be paying them – because printing money we don’t really have will vastly devalue it and what they get in real value will be far less than what they are owed.

– But, the Chinese, among others, are not stupid.   They see the traps inherent in avoiding the short-term pain today and deferring the problem into a bigger and more profound  long-term pain later.   

– I think the article, below, is about China beginning to ‘face up’ to the problem they have with so much of their trade surplus money being invested in a  country (the U.S.) that is showing, more and more, that it simply doesn’t have and won’t have the ability to pay its debts back. 

– There’s another side to this as well.   China is, on the surface, a Capitalist powerhouse.   But, let’s not forget that it is also still a communist dictatorship run by the same folks who have had it as their central aim for many decades to remake the world in the image they want and to help China ascend to the dominate position in that new world.

 – Calculations are being made, I am sure, in China about how much damage they will sustain and how much we in the U.S. will sustain, if they simply stop buying our bonds and treasuries and let our economy crumble.   It won’t be pretty, everyone knows.   But, if at the end of it, China, with it’s huge cash reserves (even after it loses what it’s invested with the U.S., is still half way solvent and the U.S.,on the other hand, has transitioned from the sole world super-power into something far less – much as Britain went from an empire the sun never set on to a bunch of feisty folks on an island just west of mainland Europe, then China will have won the long term battle for dominance.

– I’m not saying it will turn out that way.   There are a lot of other big cards on the table and it is impossible to know how they will play out.  

  • Can China remain internally stable if the world goes through a major shakeup (vastly bigger than what we’re seeing now)?
  • Can the economic furnaces of the world ever really be restarted given that they only seem to be able to run on a model predicated on ever continuing growth and consumption in a world that grows smaller and more finite by the day?
  • Can any of this play out without being strongly overridden and washed out by the Global Climate Changes that we’ve already put into motion?

It may be that this squabble for world dominance between China and the U.S. is nothing more that a game of shuffleboard that everyone’s focused on – but that the game itself is being held on the Titanic and the date is April 14th, 1912.

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By Jason Simpkins
Managing Editor
Money Morning

Finance officials from Beijing in Moscow on Thursday held a videoconference to discuss the creation of a “supra-national reserve currency,” the latest evidence of the support China is getting from developing countries as it seeks to replace the U.S. dollar as the world’s main reserve currency.

This controversial proposal – and the support that it’s getting – also underscores China’s continued emergence as a growing global force in both the financial and political arenas. That’s a trend that successful global investors won’t be able to ignore.

The recent torrent of criticism to swirl around the dollar began with remarks by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao.  Speaking last month at a press conference leading up to the recent Group 20 meeting in London, Premier Wen voiced his concern about the value of China’s large holdings of U.S. Treasuries.

We have lent a huge amount of money to the United States,” he said. “Of course, we are concerned about the safety of our assets. To be honest, I am definitely a little bit worried. I request the U.S. to maintain its good credit, to honor its promises and to guarantee the safety of China’s assets.”

Of China’s $2 trillion in foreign currency holdings, about $1 trillion is invested in U.S. Treasuries and notes issued by other government affiliated agencies, such as Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE).

They are worried about forever-rising deficits, which may devalue Treasuries by pushing interest rates higher,” JP Morgan & Co. (JPM) analyst Frank Gong told The Associated Press. “Inside China, there has been a lot of debate about whether they should continue to buy Treasuries.”

Earlier this year, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected that the U.S. budget deficit would nearly triple from last year’s $455 billion – and would reach a staggering $1.2 trillion. And that was even before U.S. President Barack Obama unveiled his $787 billion in stimulus, bank-rescue and anti-foreclosure plans. And that massive projected shortfall also doesn’t include other fix-up initiatives that are sure to surface in the months ahead.

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Microsoft Tag – Part II

April 11th, 2009

Yesterday, I tried to make some Microsoft Tags at the Microsoft Tag website.   I was able to make tags for three of my four websites (www.parkterraceapartment.com, www.samadhicoda.com and www.samadhimuse.com).

But when I tried to make one for this website, www.samadhisoft.com, the tag making software told me that my website was “Blacklisted”.

I sent them the following message on their contact form this morning to see what this “Blacklisting” was about:

I tried to make a tag for several of my websites and one of them failed.   When I tried to make a tag for www.samadhisoft.com, the tag making application told me that my site was “blacklisted”.  What’s that about and how do I get un-blacklisted?   This is a private Blog and I’ve never, to my knowledge, been blacklisted by anyone before.

In the end, I got around their black listing block by creating a TinyURL in place of the full www.samadhisoft.com website address and their tag making software took that just fine and made me a tag.   But, I cannot imagine that this loop-hole will exist long.

TinyURL is a cool and little-known capability.   You’ll do yourself a favor to follow the link, above, and read about what TinyURL can do for you.  It’s cool.

So, I’ve been wondering why Microsoft might have me on a Blacklisted list?

The only possible reason I can think of is that I wrote a piece a while ago critical of the Gates Foundation and where they spend their money to make the world a better place.  Mmmmm.   ‘Critical’ is perhaps too strong a word.   In truth, I applaude their idealism.   I just question how and where they direct it.   It think there are more effective uses of their vast monies to make our world a better place.

But, I think it is much more likely that I’m probably on a blacklist because of some error rather than because the Gates folks think I’m a small and irritating thorn.  They are too big and I am too small for that to seem very plausible.

We’ll see what my contact form query accomplishes.  Stay tuned for Microsoft Tag – part III.

Cheers!

– Postscript – 24Apr 2009 – I received the following E-Mail from Microsoft today:

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Greetings:

We wished to let you know our team has removed your website “http://www.samadhisoft.com” from our blacklist.  You should now be able to create tags that work with this website.  If you still experience problems with such, please do not hesitate to contact us so we may look further into the issue.

Thank you for your patience and interest in Microsoft Tag.

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– Typical that there was no explanation as to why my site had been blacklisted.   But, better late than never and better something rather than nothing.

Microsoft Tag

April 10th, 2009

– I haven’t Blogged on technical stuff for quite awhile now.  After 25 years of IT, not much pleases or surprises me these days.   But this new Microsoft Tag idea is really cool and it’s amazing no one thought if it before.

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Microsoft Tag creates unlimited possibilities for making interactive communications an instant, entertaining part of life. They transform physical media (print advertising, billboards, product packages, information signs, in-store merchandising, or even video images)—into live links for accessing information and entertainment online.

With the Microsoft Tag application, just aim your camera phone at a Tag and instantly access mobile content, videos, music, contact information, maps, social networks, promotions, and more. Nothing to type, no browsers to launch!

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– Research thanks to David D.

– Here are four tags to various websites that I created on Microsoft’s Tag website just now:


Samadhisoft Website (as Tiny URL) Park Terrace Apartment

SamadhiCoda Website SamadhiMuse website

– My wife and I had a conversation about this article (above) a short while after I published it.   Her immediate comment was, “There will be a lot of scammers using these things.

– After I thought about it, I think she’s right.  Following the link within one of these is no different than following a link in an E-Mail you have received.   The link will only be as reliable as the person who sent you the E-Mail.  

– I’d never click on a link unless I was certain that I trusted the folks providing the link.   So, if you find one of these around and use it to go to a web site, how will you know where you’ll end up?  

– It’s a slick idea and, so long as cell phones are not being corrupted by viruses, following a link like this on a cell phone might not be dangerous.  But, I strongly suspect cell phones are vulnerable to viruses and other attacks. 

– I say this because I used to work at Motorola and helped to develop the software that went into their cell phones.   And what we put into those phones was, in every sense, a complex operating system.   Just the sort of thing viruses can get their teeth in.

Nuff said….

Nope, not enough said yet.   I wrote the following to a friend of mine this morning in an E-Mail.  He’s not a real technical guy so he was unsure what all of this was about.  If some of you are having the same problem, maybe the following will help:

R.,

Many cell phones these days have web browsers built in so you can surf the internet on your cell phone’s little screen from where ever you are.  The newer cell phones also have cameras on them so you can just point it like a camera and push a button and it records a picture digitally.

The Microsoft Tag idea combines these two capabilities.

Say you are out in public and you see a poster for a movie that’s being advertised.   On the poster is one of these ‘tag’ things.   You take your cell phone out and point it at the ‘tag’ on the movie poster and you take a picture of it with the built in camera on your cell phone.

If you have you cell phone setup to use Microsoft Tags, what will happen then is that the cell phone will take a look at the picture its just taken and translate it into an address out on the Internet and then the cell phone’s web browser will automatically go to that web site.    So, you take a picture of a Tag and then, boom, you are looking at the website represented by that Tag.

In this case, since the tag was on a movie poster, the website will probably be about the movie on the poster and you’ll be able to see, on that web site you’ve just gone to, where the movie is playing and when.

BUT, the concern is that these tags could be malicious and take the web browser on your cell phone anywhere.  To porn sites, to sites infested with worms and viruses or to anywhere.   Just by looking at the tag, you can’t tell where it is going to take you.   So, in that way, it is just like clicking on a link in an E-Mail you received from someone you don’t know.   It’s a very risky thing to do.

Dennis

Hacker intrusion on US power grid sparks security fears

April 8th, 2009

“The severity of what we’re seeing is off the charts,” said Tom Kellermann, vice president of security awareness for Core Security Technologies and a member of the Commission on Cyber Security that is advising President Barack Obama.

“Most of the critical infrastructure in the US has been penetrated to the root by state actors.”

SAN JOSE, California – Spies hacked into the US electric grid and left behind computer programmes that would let them disrupt service, exposing potentially catastrophic vulnerabilities in key pieces of national infrastructure, The Associated Press has learned.

The intrusions were discovered after electric companies gave the government permission to audit their systems, a former US government official told the AP. The ex-official was not authorised to discuss the matter and spoke on condition of anonymity.One possible future

The inspections of the electric grid were triggered by fears over a March 2007 video from the Idaho National Laboratory, which had staged a demonstration of what damage hackers could do if they seized control of a crucial part of the electric grid. The video showed a power turbine spinning out of control until it became a smoking hulk and shut down.

Although the resulting audits turned up evidence of spying, the former official told the AP that the extent of the problem is unknown, because the government does not have blanket authority to examine other electric systems.

“The vulnerability may be bigger than we think,” the official said, adding that the level of sophistication necessary to pull off such intrusions is so high that it is “almost without a doubt” done by state sponsors.

The Wall Street Journal, which reported the intrusions earlier, said officials believe the spies have not yet sought to damage the nation’s electric grid, but that they likely would try in a war or another crisis.

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World’s water supplies at risk, UN says

April 8th, 2009

Surging population growth, climate change, reckless irrigation and chronic waste are placing the world’s water supplies at threat, a landmark UN report said on Thursday. Compiled by 24 UN agencies, the 348-page document gave a grim assessment of the state of the planet’s freshwater, especially in developing countries, and described the outlook for coming generations as deeply worrying.

Water is part of the complex web of factors that determine prosperity and stability, it said.

Lack of access to water helps drive poverty and deprivation and breeds the potential for unrest and conflict, it warned.

“Water is linked to the crises of climate change, energy and food supplies and prices, and troubled financial markets,” the third World Water Development Report said.

“Unless their links with water are addressed and water crises around the world are resolved, these other crises may intensify and local water crises may worsen, converging into a global water crisis and leading to political insecurity at various levels.”

The report pointed to a double squeeze on fresh water.

On one side was human impact. There were six billion humans in 2000, a tally that has already risen to 6.5 billion and could scale nine billion by 2050.

Population growth, especially in cities in poor countries, is driving explosive demand for water, prompting rivers in thirsty countries to be tapped for nearly every drop and driving governments to pump out so-called fossil water, the report said.

These are aquifers that are hundreds of thousands of years old and whose extraction is not being replenished by rainfall. Mining them for water today means depriving future generations of liquid treasure.

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Nuclear Power Cannot Solve Climate Change

April 8th, 2009

A new report finds that nuclear power plants cannot be built quickly enough and in a safe and secure manner to be a major global solution for climate change

Nuclear power plants cannot be built quickly enough and in a safe and secure manner to be a major global solution for climate change, according to a report released yesterday from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

The report says the nuclear industry, under current policies and financing, won’t be able to build enough new reactors to make a difference in climate in the next 20 years.

“Without major changes in government policies and aggressive financial support, nuclear power is actually likely to account for a declining percentage of global electricity generation,” the report says.

The International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2008 projects that without policy changes, nuclear power’s share of worldwide electricity generation will drop from 15 percent in 2006 to 10 percent in 2030.

But policymakers should be aware of the timeline, costs and risks nuclear power brings as compared to the possible benefits, before expending a tremendous amount of resources on it, the report says.

Bottlenecks in the nuclear supply chain, weak infrastructure in developing countries and tighter credit risk management strategies in the wake of the economic crises will severely limit all countries’ capabilities to significantly expand their nuclear fleet, while the current fleet of reactors is likely to be retired by 2030, the report said.

The earliest the first new U.S. reactor could be finished is 2015, but the report notes that it takes about 10 years to put a new plant in service, from licensing to connection to the grid. In two dozen countries that are interested in obtaining civil nuclear energy but have not previously built a reactor, it will take even longer, the report says.

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More Australian Weather Records Tumble

April 8th, 2009

The Big Dry Down Under just got a whole lot drier. The first three months of 2009 in the already parched Murray Darling basin had the least amount of rainfall since Australian weather records began 117 years ago.

This massive drainage supports $9 billion in agriculture but has been hammered by what some are calling the worst drought in 1000 years. Authorities in Australia make no bones about the cause of this freaky weather.

“We’ve had big droughts before and big floods before, but what we didn’t have was climate change,” said Rob Freeman, the chief executive of the Murray-Darling Basin Authority.

The Murray Darling is home to 2 million people who may not even have enough water to survive in the future. “I’d be loath to say that critical human needs will always be secure”, warned Freeman.

The recent rainfall record was not the only smashed. Water inputs for three-year period ending March 2009 were less than half of the previous record from the great drought of 1943-1946.

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Global crisis ‘to strike by 2030’

April 8th, 2009

Growing world population will cause a “perfect storm” of food, energy and water shortages by 2030, the UK government chief scientist has warned.

By 2030 the demand for resources will create a crisis with dire consequences, Prof John Beddington said.

Demand for food and energy will jump 50% by 2030 and for fresh water by 30%, as the population tops 8.3 billion, he told a conference in London.

Climate change will exacerbate matters in unpredictable ways, he added.

‘Complacent’

“It’s a perfect storm,” Prof Beddington told the Sustainable Development UK 09 conference.

“There’s not going to be a complete collapse, but things will start getting really worrying if we don’t tackle these problems.”

Prof Beddington said the looming crisis would match the current one in the banking sector.

“My main concern is what will happen internationally, there will be food and water shortages,” he said.

“We’re relatively fortunate in the UK; there may not be shortages here, but we can expect prices of food and energy to rise.”

The United Nations Environment Programme predicts widespread water shortages across Africa, Europe and Asia by 2025.

The amount of fresh water available per head of the population is expected to decline sharply in that time.

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African leader embarks on bizarre witch-hunt

April 8th, 2009

– Sorry, but I think some folks should just drink the kool-aid.

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A state-sponsored witch-hunt has begun in Gambia where as many as 1000 people have been kidnapped from their villages and taken to “secret detention centres” then stripped, beaten and poisoned.

The campaign in the tiny West African nation is the latest manifestation of the increasingly brutal and bizarre rule of President Yahya Jammeh, who has claimed he can cure people of Aids. Now the President is thought to believe he is under attack from witches.

Witnesses and victims of the abductions told Amnesty International that the President’s personal guard, with armed police and intelligence agents, accompanied witch doctors to round up suspects.

Many of those taken from their homes were elderly people who were held for up to five days in appalling conditions, made to drink hallucinogenic concoctions and forced to confess to black magic powers.

“At 5am, the paramilitary police armed with guns and shovels surrounded our village and threatened the villagers, saying anyone who tries to escape will be buried 6 feet under,” one witness said.

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