I am, by nature, an upbeat person. I’m rarely depressed and when I am, it only lasts a day or so. I have to admit though that blogging on our coming future wears at me at times.
If we were facing a future that we couldn’t do anything about, then I could accept that stoically. And if we were facing a future with enormous problems but we were dealing with them, however slowly, then I could accept that as well. But, we’re facing a terrible future which we could avoid, and which we are not. Knowing that and knowing what’s at stake wears at my heart.
Today, I posted three more briefings from Stratfor on samadhisoft here: ➡, here: ➡ and here: ➡.
The first is reporting on chaos in the Ukraine where the Rule of Law, weak at best, is rapidly fading and giving way to might-is-right strategies. Not a good sign for Central Asia.
The second discusses the huge mess swirling around the US, Iran and Iraq. There are many players in this game and no one seems to hold a winning hand. And, in the mean time, some of our best, idealistic and naive young people are giving up their lives – but for exactly what it’s hard to say.
It’s the third one, however, that is the most discouraging to me. Global climate change is a problem that simply doesn’t care if we understand, doesn’t care if we are preoccupied over questions of who should do what first and who’s responsible for things. It doesn’t care if it is an election year or if corporate profits are going to rise or fall.
The mismatch between the magnitude of the threat and our dithering responses to it are going to make for amazing reading in future history … if we have a future.
So, the US has now effectively killed the Kyoto Treaty, if we are to believe Stratfor’s analysis in favor of setting up a Pacific alignment group with China, India, Australia and Canada. In terms of possobly being effective, this is a powerhouse group because between themselves, they are responsible for emitting half the world’s greenhouse gases. But the promise of this group is really slim. The US has always avoided caps on greenhouse emmissions on favor of voluntary measures and China, just last week, announced its plans for dealing with global climate change and made it quite clear that while it wants to do better, it will do nothing that slows its economic growth or dampens the aspirations of its huge population for greater wealth and consumption.
Kyoto previously had the hope of evolving into Kyoto II with all the incremental improvements that accrue through experience and the hope of bringing major players on board who had until now been slacking. But, now the US administration’s refusal to comprehend the seriousness of the threat combined with some deft political footwork has essentially gutted the one semi-effective international protocol focused on mounting a response to global climate change.
Unless there’s another sea-change among the world’s nations concerning how to deal with global climate change, then from here out we will have gestures, hand-waving, flag-waving, promises and every type of political compromise required to ensure that our consumption patterns as a species go on unabated until the consequences of our inattention are painted in technicolor strokes of death and environmental destruction which we can no longer ignore.
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