Archive for the ‘The Perfect Storm’ Category

Latest report from the IPCC folks

Saturday, April 7th, 2007

If you follow discussions on Global Climate Change, you’d have to be living under a rock to not know that the IPCC released its latest sub-report on Friday, April 6th.

There are three sub-reports scheduled this year and, jointly, they make up the 4th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report.

The first sub-report this year concluded with 90% certainty that human activities are causing the rise in global atmospheric temperatures. This 2nd sub-report of the year focuses on the consequences of the warming that’s in progress – and the news is not good.

Bloggers and news organizations have been all over this story for a week working on early leaked documents, final draft documents and final release documents. It’s been a free-for-all and I’m not sure that I can add a lot to the conversation so I’m just going to link to some of the more interesting on-line articles I’ve seen on this topic. Below are links to various stories I’ve found on the web about this latest IPCC report along with a brief note about each link.

– This is a brief history of the IPCC reports in general. It discusses their purpose and the various versions that have been released to date.

– This is a summary in Scientific American about the most recent sub-report.

– This is an opinion piece in the New York Times discussing whether or not grim news like this might finally serve to break President Bush out of his long-standing denial of the problem. (See note at the bottom about the NY Times)

– This is the final draft as the scientists wanted it. But, at the eleventh hour, several governments lobbied to water certain sections down to better align things with their ‘political’ views of reality.

– This is another piece from this NY Times – this time from their environmental section discussing the findings of the sub-report in general. (See note at the bottom about the NY Times)

– This piece is, itself, an aggregation of articles from other news sources. This is from Time Magazine’s Blog called The Ag.

– This is a piece from the Washington Post discussing how the IPCC sub-report was watered down by several governments over the objections of the scientists at the last moment.

– This is another piece from the environmental section of the New York Times. It discusses the consequences of Global Warming as outlined in the IPCC sub-report. (See note at the bottom about the NY Times)

– This is from National Geographic and it explores the consequences of the consequences described by the IPCC. I.e., that these changes may in turn spur extinctions, shortages and conflicts world wide.

– This article from CNN discusses the tension and anger that were palpable in the last hours, before the final version of this sub-report was issued, between the scientists and the governments lobbying to water the report down.

– This is a summary of the IPCC Summary for Policy Makers – Part I, II, & III.

That’s 11 articles. I could have gone on and gathered up another dozen without breaking a sweat. This story’s big and everyone is reporting on it, Blogging on it, analyzing it and rendering opinions about it. I didn’t go to see what the climate skeptics are saying but I’m sure they are churning out vast quantities of confusion and disinformation to deflect the sharp edges of this report.

Frankly, it amazes me that we still need to try and convince people that something is going on with global climate change. And, what amazes me more, is that humanity’s response to this problem has been so pitifully inadequate to date. And now President Bush is saying he thinks we’re doing enough at the same time other folks are saying that we’re way past being able to stop these changes, and now we just need to figure out the best way to cope with the unavoidable.

We’re in some serious doo-doo here, folks. If humanity survives this mess, then it would be interesting to read the history books two hundred years on (if we could be here) and read their opinions about the self-destructive stupidity of our age.

Note that there have been four IPPC reports since the series of reports were begun by the UN in 1990. The current, or fourth, IPCC report is broken into three parts which will be issued at different times over this year. I’ve taken to calling these three reports ‘sub-reports‘ to differ them from their aggregate form. After all, if we call the aggregates and the pieces all ‘reports’, it can get a bit confusing.

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– Some of these articles are from the NY Times and they insist that folks have an ID and a PW in order to read their stuff. You can get these for free just by signing up. However, recently, a friend of mine suggested the website bugmenot.com :arrow: as an alternative to having to do these annoying sign ups. Check it out. Thx Bruce S. for the tip.

An American brain drain – in progress

Saturday, April 7th, 2007

This is a personal story because I know the people involved. But it is also a bigger story – a national story – because it is happening all over America.

A couple I know is moving to Britain soon. These are wonderful people who’ve added a tremendous amount to our community here. He’s a PhD Assistant Professor at a major local university and he’s also a brilliant up-and-coming young scientist who is rapidly becoming a ‘name’ in the field he’s decided to work in. He’s been in the pre-tenure publish or perish portion of his academic career now for sometime working hard and waiting to advance.

Well, a university in Britain offered him one and a half times his current salary and an immediate advance into a fully tenured position as an associate professor. His new university has decided, with the blessing of the British government, to become a major force in global environmental science and has lavished 8 million pounds on his new department. The physical research facilities he will have at his control are several times larger than what he was allocated here.

I know these folks hate to leave what they’ve built here in the fifteen years they’ve lived in our community but how could they resist an offer like that?

The National Science Foundation’s budget is being lowered year by year and all over America, scientists of all flavors are rethinking their options. Other countries haven’t been infected with our country’s current disrespect for science. They are still well aware that science IS the power card to the future while we are slipping deeper and deeper into fundamentalist conservative right-wing dreams and delusions that science is an impediment to the advance of capitalistic profit and fundamentalist religious fervor.

Do I sound bitter about all of this? I am. This country was one of the finest experiments ever manifested in human history and we are in big danger now of pissing it all away.

Years ago I read a book, Among the Believers: An Islamic Journey, by a Nobel prize winner in literature, V.S. Naipaul, in which the author traveled the full arc of the Muslim world from Morocco to Indonesia. Many things stuck with me from the book but one that really amazed me was his description of how the authors of scientific papers in Pakistan would put titles on their papers like “The Electron Potentials of Scandium Ferrous alloys as revealed by the Grace of Allah“. I thought to myself at the time that these people have fatally mixed up religion and science.

Well, if things keep on as they are in this country, I fully expect to see papers like “Advances in GSM Cell Phone Technology as approved by the Southern Baptist Convention of 2010” soon. And it is deeply scary that there is a significant portion of our population that thinks changes like this are appropriate in this day and age.

Soon, those who think that science is just an inconvenience in their path as they try to make America a fundamentalist Christian nation and those who think that our societies only exist as sandboxes in which corporations are free to corner all of the nation and world’s wealth for the few – soon these folks will have marginalized this great country and another great event in human history will have had its day in the sun and be moved into the historical also-ran category.

Our scientists are leaving for Singapore, Britain, France and a host of other places and we are the poorer everyday for this brain-drain.

I will miss my friends soon. And all of us, in not too many years, will miss what this great country once was if we continue to embrace mediocrity.

/rant off

Elephant Slaughter Discovered Along African “Highways of Death”

Thursday, April 5th, 2007

– I wrote just the other day about how sad I find it that we are literally watching species pass off the face of the Earth around us and, apparently, most of us are unmoved by it.

– Here’s another small story – which is just part of the rising tide of extinctions driven by human stupidity.

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Central Africa’s growing network of roads is creating “highways of death” for critically endangered forest elephants that are being slaughtered for their ivory, conservationists warn.

New roads penetrating deep into the dense rain forests of the Congo Basin region are giving poachers better access to the last refuges of these jungle elephants, the latest research shows.

A team led by the New York-based Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS) found that forest elephant numbers plummeted near roadways due to illegal poaching.

The findings were the result of survey of 26,000 square miles (68,000 square kilometers) of protected wilderness stretching from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to southwestern Gabon (see map of Africa).

More than 50 poaching camps and 41 slaughtered elephants were discovered by the team, which has reported its findings in the journal Public Library of Science Biology.

At last count, taken in 1989, an estimated 170,000 forest elephants remained in the wild.

The current figure may be much lower, the study team warned, due to road construction fueled by logging and development that are eating into forest elephant territory.

“There’s no doubt whatsoever that numbers have seriously declined,” said WCS biologist Stephen Blake, the study’s lead author.

More…

Millions face drought in SW China

Thursday, April 5th, 2007

More than 5.5 million people are short of drinking water because of an acute drought in south-western China, state media reports.

Low rainfall in the province of Sichuan has forced officials to deliver clean water to the worst-hit areas.

Six million livestock and half a million hectares of land are affected, Sichuan’s governor said.

Many areas of China are regularly hit by water shortages or droughts, with some blaming climate change.

Most of Sichuan received no major rain in February, and no significant rain predicted before the end of March.

More…

Poor Nations to Bear Brunt as World Warms

Wednesday, April 4th, 2007

The world’s richest countries, which have contributed by far the most to the atmospheric changes linked to global warming, are already spending billions of dollars to limit their own risks from its worst consequences, like drought and rising seas.

But despite longstanding treaty commitments to help poor countries deal with warming, these industrial powers are spending just tens of millions of dollars on ways to limit climate and coastal hazards in the world’s most vulnerable regions – most of them close to the equator and overwhelmingly poor.

Next Friday, a new report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a United Nations body that since 1990 has been assessing global warming, will underline this growing climate divide, according to scientists involved in writing it – with wealthy nations far from the equator not only experiencing fewer effects but also better able to withstand them.

Two-thirds of the atmospheric buildup of carbon dioxide, a heat-trapping greenhouse gas that can persist in the air for centuries, has come in nearly equal proportions from the United States and Western European countries. Those and other wealthy nations are investing in windmill-powered plants that turn seawater to drinking water, in flood barriers and floatable homes, and in grains and soybeans genetically altered to flourish even in a drought.

In contrast, Africa accounts for less than 3 percent of the global emissions of carbon dioxide from fuel burning since 1900, yet its 840 million people face some of the biggest risks from drought and disrupted water supplies, according to new scientific assessments. As the oceans swell with water from melting ice sheets, it is the crowded river deltas in southern Asia and Egypt, along with small island nations, that are most at risk.

Like the sinking of the Titanic, catastrophes are not democratic“, said Henry I. Miller, a fellow with the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. “A much higher fraction of passengers from the cheaper decks were lost. We’ll see the same phenomenon with global warming.“

More…

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– research thanks to John P. and Lisa G., both of whom forwarded a link to this story to me.

– This article is from the NY Times and they insist that folks have an ID and a PW in order to read their stuff. You can get these for free just by signing up. However, recently, a friend of mine suggested the website bugmenot.com :arrow: as an alternative to having to do these annoying sign ups. Check it out. Thx Bruce S. for the tip.

Bush Administration Moves To Gut Endangered Species Act

Sunday, April 1st, 2007

A secret draft of regulations (pdf) that would fundamentally rewrite the Endangered Species Act was leaked to two environmental organizations, which provided them to the press Tuesday. An article in Salon quotes Earthjustice attorney Jan Hasselman saying, “The proposed changes fundamentally gut the intent of the Endangered Species Act.”

The changes are fiercely technical and complicated, but make future listings extremely difficult, redefine key concepts to the detriment of protected species, virtually hand over administration of the act to hostile states, and severely restrict habitat protections.

Many of the changes — lifted from unsuccessful legislative proposals from then-Senator (now Interior Secretary) Dirk Kempthorne and the recently defeated congressman Richard Pombo — are reactions to policies and practices established as a result of litigation filed by environmental organizations including Earthjustice.

“After the failure of these legislative proposals in the last Congress, the Bush administration has opted to gut the Endangered Species Act through the only avenue left open: administrative regulations,” said Hasselman. “This end-run around the will of Congress and the American people will not succeed.”

More…

My National Security Letter Gag Order

Monday, March 26th, 2007

– This story comes from The Washington Post.

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It is the policy of The Washington Post not to publish anonymous pieces. In this case, an exception has been made because the author — who would have preferred to be named — is legally prohibited from disclosing his or her identity in connection with receipt of a national security letter. The Post confirmed the legitimacy of this submission by verifying it with the author’s attorney and by reviewing publicly available court documents.

The Justice Department’s inspector general revealed on March 9 that the FBI has been systematically abusing one of the most controversial provisions of the USA Patriot Act: the expanded power to issue “national security letters.” It no doubt surprised most Americans to learn that between 2003 and 2005 the FBI issued more than 140,000 specific demands under this provision — demands issued without a showing of probable cause or prior judicial approval — to obtain potentially sensitive information about U.S. citizens and residents. It did not, however, come as any surprise to me.

Three years ago, I received a national security letter (NSL) in my capacity as the president of a small Internet access and consulting business. The letter ordered me to provide sensitive information about one of my clients. There was no indication that a judge had reviewed or approved the letter, and it turned out that none had. The letter came with a gag provision that prohibited me from telling anyone, including my client, that the FBI was seeking this information. Based on the context of the demand — a context that the FBI still won’t let me discuss publicly — I suspected that the FBI was abusing its power and that the letter sought information to which the FBI was not entitled.

Rather than turn over the information, I contacted lawyers at the American Civil Liberties Union, and in April 2004 I filed a lawsuit challenging the constitutionality of the NSL power. I never released the information the FBI sought, and last November the FBI decided that it no longer needs the information anyway. But the FBI still hasn’t abandoned the gag order that prevents me from disclosing my experience and concerns with the law or the national security letter that was served on my company. In fact, the government will return to court in the next few weeks to defend the gag orders that are imposed on recipients of these letters.

More…

Are GM Crops Killing Bees?

Monday, March 26th, 2007

A mysterious decimation of bee populations has German beekeepers worried, while a similar phenomenon in the United States is gradually assuming catastrophic proportions. The consequences for agriculture and the economy could be enormous.

Walter Haefeker is a man who is used to painting grim scenarios. He sits on the board of directors of the German Beekeepers Association (DBIB) and is vice president of the European Professional Beekeepers Association. And because griping is part of a lobbyist’s trade, it is practically his professional duty to warn that “the very existence of beekeeping is at stake.”

The problem, says Haefeker, has a number of causes, one being the varroa mite, introduced from Asia, and another is the widespread practice in agriculture of spraying wildflowers with herbicides and practicing monoculture. Another possible cause, according to Haefeker, is the controversial and growing use of genetic engineering in agriculture.

As far back as 2005, Haefeker ended an article he contributed to the journal Der Kritischer Agrarbericht (Critical Agricultural Report) with an Albert Einstein quote: “If the bee disappeared off the surface of the globe then man would only have four years of life left. No more bees, no more pollination, no more plants, no more animals, no more man.”

Mysterious events in recent months have suddenly made Einstein’s apocalyptic vision seem all the more topical. For unknown reasons, bee populations throughout Germany are disappearing — something that is so far only harming beekeepers. But the situation is different in the United States, where bees are dying in such dramatic numbers that the economic consequences could soon be dire. No one knows what is causing the bees to perish, but some experts believe that the large-scale use of genetically modified plants in the US could be a factor.

More…

070322 – Poem

Thursday, March 22nd, 2007

I have suspended disbelief before a thousand scriptures
   as I've eased myself into knowing this world.
I have asked, watched, listened and I have read
   but the secrets have alway been inside.
And everything outside has always been
   just smoke in the morning trees.

Neither action or intention, nor word or form are there
   and all science and reason lie without.
It is no  servant of words or names, this
   where, the clocks are dumb and time has gone still.

You speak of Krishna or Vishnu, of Buddha and Jesus
   but these are just shadows on the wall
of the candle that burns within
   that center of being that wells from within itself.

Scripture is the trim that adorns the door
   outside the place that contains the beloved.

Study Details Catastrophic Impact Of Nuclear Attack On US Cities

Thursday, March 22nd, 2007

– Sobering stuff:

“The hospital system has about 1,500 burn beds in the whole country, and of these maybe 80 or 90 percent are full at any given time,” Bell said. “There’s no way of treating the burn victims from a nuclear attack with the existing medical system.”

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Science Daily A new study by researchers at the Center for Mass Destruction Defense (CMADD) at the University of Georgia details the catastrophic impact a nuclear attack would have on American cities.

The study, which the authors said was the most advanced and detailed simulation published in open scientific literature, highlights the inability of the nation’s current medical system to handle casualties from a nuclear attack. It also suggests what the authors said are much needed yet relatively simple interventions that could save tens of thousands of lives.

“The likelihood of a nuclear weapon attack in an American city is steadily increasing, and the consequences will be overwhelming” said Cham Dallas, CMADD director and professor in the UGA College of Pharmacy. “So we need to substantially increase our preparation.”

Dallas and co-author William Bell, CMADD senior research scientist and faculty member of the UGA College of Public Health, examined four high-profile American cities – New York, Chicago, Washington, D.C. and Atlanta – and modeled the effects of a 20 kiloton nuclear detonation and a 550 kiloton detonation. (For comparison, the nuclear bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki were in the 12 to 20 kiloton range). Bell explained that a 20 kiloton weapon could be manufactured by terrorists and fledgling nuclear countries such as North Korea and Iran, while a 550 kiloton device is commonly found in the arsenal of the former Soviet Union and therefore is the most likely to be stolen by terrorists.

More…