Archive for the ‘The Perfect Storm’ Category

Rivers run towards ‘crisis point’

Thursday, March 22nd, 2007

Some of the world’s major rivers are reaching crisis point because of dams, shipping, pollution and climate change, according to the environment group WWF.

Its report, World’s Top 10 Rivers at Risk, says the river “crisis” rivals climate change in importance.

Five of its “top 10” are in Asia, such as the Yangtse, Mekong, and Ganges, though Europe’s Danube and North America’s Rio Grande are also included.

WWF says governments should see water as an issue of national security.

Its report is issued in advance of World Water Day (22 March).

“The world is facing a massive freshwater crisis, which has the potential to be every bit as devastating as climate change,” said Dr David Tickner, head of the freshwater programme at WWF-UK.

“We need business leaders and governments to recognise that climate change is not the only urgent environmental issue that needs to be dealt with, and that they need to take notice of this freshwater emergency and act now, not later.”

More…

MASSIVE DIVERSION OF U.S. GRAIN TO FUEL CARS IS RAISING WORLD FOOD PRICES

Thursday, March 22nd, 2007

– This push for biofuels seems largely misguided. I’ve written on this before – citing both pro and con articles.

– See: , , , , Search for ‘biofuel‘ on this site to pick up other related articles.

– The bottom line is, I believe, that people like this idea because they think it wil allow them to avoid facing up to the real issues. But, in truth, it just obscures those issues further and postpones dealing with them.

– A quote from the article:

“A rise in auto fuel efficiency standards of 20 percent, phased in over the next decade would save as much oil as converting the entire U.S. grain harvest into ethanol.”

– Now the irony here is that US fuel efficiency standards are now the worst in the developed world.   Even China requires better miles per gallon performance than the US.

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Lester R. Brown

If you think you are spending more each week at the supermarket, you may be right. The escalating share of the U.S. grain harvest going to ethanol distilleries is driving up food prices worldwide.

Corn prices have doubled over the last year, wheat futures are trading at their highest level in 10 years, and rice prices are rising too. In addition, soybean futures have risen by half. A Bloomberg analysis notes that the soaring use of corn as the feedstock for fuel ethanol “is creating unintended consequences throughout the global food chain.”

The countries initially hit by rising food prices are those where corn is the staple food. In Mexico, one of more than 20 countries with a corn-based diet, the price of tortillas is up by 60 percent. Angry Mexicans in crowds of up to 75,000 have taken to the streets in protest, forcing the government to institute price controls on tortillas.

Food prices are also rising in China, India, and the United States, countries that contain 40 percent of the world’s people. While relatively little corn is eaten directly in these countries, vast quantities are consumed indirectly in meat, milk, and eggs in both China and the United States.

Rising grain and soybean prices are driving up meat and egg prices in China. January pork prices were up 20 percent above a year earlier, eggs were up 16 percent, while beef, which is less dependent on grain, was up 6 percent.

In India, the overall food price index in January 2007 was 10 percent higher than a year earlier. The price of wheat, the staple food in northern India, has jumped 11 percent, moving above the world market price.

In the United States, the U.S. Department of Agriculture projects that the wholesale price of chicken in 2007 will be 10 percent higher on average than in 2006, the price of a dozen eggs will be up a whopping 21 percent, and milk will be 14 percent higher. And this is only the beginning.

More…

B.C. premier stuns critics with plans to go green

Tuesday, March 20th, 2007

VANCOUVER, B.C. — The premier of British Columbia wanted to bring coal-burning plants and offshore oil rigs to this lush province, so environmental groups were ready for a fight as he prepared his government’s annual policy speech last month.

They were stunned when Premier Gordon Campbell delivered a list of green promises that surpassed their most ambitious dreams.

He would not only stop the growth in greenhouse gases in the province, he said, but also slash them by one-third. He would gut the coal-plant plans. Embrace wind power. Lease hybrid cars for the government. Squelch environmental pollution by the powerful oil and gas industry. Toughen car-emission regulations.

His plans would make British Columbia what The Globe and Mail newspaper called “the continent’s greenest spot.” Campbell also proposed an enterprising alliance with California to create a Pacific Coast bloc of states and provinces to tackle climate change without waiting for action from their federal governments.

More…

070320 – Tuesday – Multiculturalism – Not!

Tuesday, March 20th, 2007

This is going to be a piece some folks are going to find offensive. I’m going to attack the idea of universal multicultural tolerance. And note the word ‘universal’ because I am decidedly not against all cultures other than my own. And, in fact, there are aspects of my own culture that I think the planet would be much better off without.

I am sorry that these ideas may offend some because I don’t like offending people. But, these are things that need to be said. I am most definitely open to alternative view points and I welcome your comments and I will respond to them.

I believe that when people immigrate to a new country, they should make a conscious decision to embrace the culture of that country before they go. If they want the benefits of living in the new country, then they should accept its culture as well. If they don’t like its culture, then they should stay home.

Immigration should be encouraged but it should also be controlled. A country’s culture can absorb a certain number of new members with harm or confusion but there is an upper limit and the government should be sensitive to not cross that limit. If too many people come in at once, the country’s self-identity can become confused and the result is that it can become like a person with multiple personalities.

And when large numbers of people are allowed come in without having made a conscious decision to embrace the culture of their new home, the danger of the nation developing multiple personality disorder is magnified exponentially.

In my opinion, Britain, France and Germany have already crossed this fatal line and may never recover. They have let in too many people from other cultures who have brought their native cultures along lock, stock and barrel and setup cultural enclaves within their new nations. Australia is beginning now to grapple with this problem.

Here’s a quote from an editorial in an Australian newspaper that illustrates my point:

Many Britons are concerned that multicultural policies that have discouraged assimilation have divided their society and created what one commentator called a “voluntary apartheid”. In the age of terrorism, this is a worrisome trend, especially considering that a recent survey of British Muslims suggested 100,000 of them felt the 7/7 attacks were justified and that one in five felt little or no loyalty to Britain.

And:

While tolerance is certainly a positive virtue that should be strived for, it cannot be a cultural suicide pact. A culture that is tolerant of those who are intolerant of its freedoms is ripe for destruction, and bit by bit will see all it values eroded. And radical Islam knows this. Just as an Australian wouldn’t go to Saudi Arabia to wear a bikini on the beach and drink beer in the corner pub, those who see the proper role of women as subservient, anonymous and under cover should not expect a postmodern secular democracy such as Britain or Australia to accommodate these beliefs.

It may be too late for Britain and much of Western Europe to maintain coherent cultures but Australian politicians have been speaking up of late:

Treasurer Peter Costello, seen as heir apparent to [Australian Prime Minister] Howard, hinted that some radical clerics could be asked to leave the country if they did not accept that Australia was a secular state, and its laws were made by parliament. “If those are not your values, if you want a country which has Sharia law or a theocratic state, then Australia is not for you“, he said on National Television.

I’d be saying to clerics who are teaching that there are two laws governing people in Australia; one the Australian law and another Islamic law, that is false. If you can’t agree with parliamentary law, independent courts, democracy, and would prefer Sharia law and have the opportunity to go to another country, which practices it, perhaps, then, that’s a better option“, Costello said.

If you examine cultural tolerance in many places in the Islamic world, like Saudi Arabia, it is nearly non-existant. They believe their culture is the right one and they are not going to let other cultural practices corrupt theirs. This is their country and they have the right to preserve their culture. Why should they come to our cultures and expect to practice theirs within ours? If cultures are tolerant of each other, then they can and should mix but intolerant cultures should not expect to get the same treatment.

Winter warmth breaks all records

Saturday, March 17th, 2007

Winter in the Northern Hemisphere this year has been the warmest since records began more than 125 years ago, a US government agency says.

The combined land and ocean surface temperature from December to February was 0.72C (1.3F) above average.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said El Nino, a seasonal warming of parts of the Pacific Ocean, had also contributed to the warmth.

But it did not see the high temperature as evidence of man-made global warming.

The Noaa said that temperatures were continuing to rise by a fifth of a degree every decade. The 10 warmest years on record have occurred since 1995.

Weather experts predict that 2007 could be the hottest year on record.

More…

E.U. Raises Bar in Fight Against Global Warming

Saturday, March 17th, 2007

PARIS, March 9 — European Union leaders agreed Friday to take the 27-country bloc beyond the targets of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol on global warming, agreeing to legally binding reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and increasing the use of renewable energy.

During a sometimes contentious two-day meeting in Brussels, the leaders agreed to cut the gas emissions by at least 20 percent from 1990 levels in the next 13 years. They set binding targets for renewable energy sources, such as wind, solar and hydro power, to supply 20 percent of the union’s power needs and for biofuels to be used in 10 percent of the bloc’s road vehicles by 2020.

European governments have been a major promoter of the Kyoto pact, which attempts to counter trends that are warming the Earth’s climate. The United States and some developing countries have withheld support from the pact, saying it is likely to harm economic growth and is based on inconclusive science.

The agreement in Brussels was reached after months of negotiations within the bloc. Leaders said they hoped the aggressive measures would help persuade some of the world’s biggest polluters, including the United States, China and India, to follow their lead.

More…

Biodiversity ‘fundamental’ to economics

Saturday, March 17th, 2007

Germany has put biodiversity, alongside climate change, at the top the agenda for its G8 presidency. In this week’s Green Room, Environment Minister Sigmar Gabriel says failure to address the loss of species will make the world a poorer place – both naturally and economically.

Some might ask why biodiversity should be an issue on the G8+5 agenda.

Well, there is a clear answer.

The G8 nations, together with the five major emerging economies of China, India, South Africa, Brazil, Mexico, use almost three-quarters of the Earth’s biocapacity – the capacity of the world’s ecosystems to produce natural resources and to reduce harmful substances.

The loss of global biological diversity is advancing at an unprecedented pace. Up to 150 species are becoming extinct every day.

As well as their uniqueness and beauty, their specific functions within ecosystems are also irrecoverably lost. The web of life that sustains our global society is getting weaker and weaker.

More…

Three on ice…

Thursday, March 15th, 2007

– Here are three articles which all came out within a day of each other – all on glaciers, sea ice, warming oceans and melting. Melting going on everywhere.

Sea ice - say “bye, bye…”

Antarctic Glaciers’ Sloughing Of Ice Has Scientists at a Loss

Some of the largest glaciers in Antarctica and Greenland are moving in unusual ways and are losing increased amounts of ice to the sea, researchers said yesterday.

Although the changes in Greenland appear to be related to global warming, it remains unclear what is causing the glaciers of frigid Antarctica and their “ice streams” to lose ice to the ocean in recent years, the researchers said.

More…

Arctic Sea Ice Decline May Trigger Climate Change Cascade

Science Daily Arctic sea ice that has been dwindling for several decades may have reached a tipping point that could trigger a cascade of climate change reaching into Earth’s temperate regions, says a new University of Colorado at Boulder study.

Mark Serreze, a senior research scientist at CU-Boulder’s National Snow and Ice Data Center who led the study synthesizing results from recent research, said the Arctic sea-ice extent trend has been negative in every month since 1979, when concerted satellite record keeping efforts began. The team attributed the loss of ice, about 38,000 square miles annually as measured each September, to rising concentrations of greenhouse gases and strong natural variability in Arctic sea ice.

More…

Warming Oceans Threaten Antarctic Glaciers

Science Daily Scientists have identified four Antarctic glaciers that pose a threat to future sea levels using satellite observations, according to a study published in the journal Science.

Experts from the University of Edinburgh and University College London determined the effect that Antarctica and Greenland were having on global sea level in a comprehensive evaluation of the Earth’s ice sheets. They found that together these two ice-sheets were responsible for a sea level rise of 0.35 millimetres per year over the past decade — representing about 12 per cent of the current global trend.

However, despite recent attention that has focused on the importance of the Greenland ice sheet, the research shows that its glaciers are changing too erratically to establish a trend with confidence. In contrast, four major glaciers in East and West Antarctica were shown to be retreating in unison, raising concerns that global sea level could rapidly rise if the oceans continue to warm.

More…

The Great Global Warming Swindle – 3

Wednesday, March 14th, 2007

– This post is about The Great Global Warming Swindle which was broadcast on Britain’s Channel 4 on March 8th, 2007. The broadcast took the view that Global Warming is a lie and it has been creating quite a stir since it was aired.

– To locate related posts on this site, search for the term swindle.

– Here’s another good post on The Great Global Warming Swindle . This one is by John Houghton who chaired the first three IPCC working groups. He rebuts here many of the points raised in the show.

– And, in the interest of being fair, I’ve noted that no one who has written rebuttals to The Great Global Warming Swindle has taken Professor Reiter of Paris to task. I wondered about that and googled a bit to see what I could learn and found very little. Reiter, in the show, made the point that the IPCC claims, that Malaria will spread further as tempertures warm, are bunk. Even though most people don’t know it, Malaria is not a desease limited to the warmer parts of the planet. Indeed, he reminds us, Alaska has some of the worst mosquito problems in the world. In my research, I only found one article that made a tepid rebuttal of Reiter’s points and said they were, perhaps, overstated. In this piece, Houghton acknowledges that, “Professor Reiter who appeared in the programme described how, unfortunately, his expert work on malaria failed to get recognition in the elevant IPCC chapter“.

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The Great Global Warming Swindle
Programme directed by Martin Durkin, on Channel 4
on Thursday 8 March 2007

Critique by John Houghton, President, John Ray Initiative

Some background on Martin Durkin can be found on
http://www.gmwatch.org/profile1.asp?PrId=39
http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2000/03/16/modified-truth/

The programme purported to debunk the science of Global Warming describing its ‘lies’ and an invention of hundreds of scientists around the world who have conspired to mislead governments, and the general public. The most prominent
person in the programme was Lord Lawson, former Chancellor of the Exchequer who is not a scientist and who shows little knowledge of the science but who is party to the creation of a conspiracy theory that questions the motives and integrity
of the world scientific community, especially as represented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The material presented was a mixture of truth, half truth and falsehood put together with the sole purpose of discrediting the science of global warming as presented by the main world community of climate scientists and by the IPCC.

More…

THE GREAT CHANNEL FOUR SWINDLE

Tuesday, March 13th, 2007

– This post is about The Great Global Warming Swindle which was broadcast on Britain’s Channel 4 on March 8th, 2007. The broadcast took the view that Global Warming is a lie and it has been creating quite a stir since it was aired.

– To locate related posts on this site, search for the term swindle.

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George Marshall @ 2:39 pm

Last night Channel Four kindly gave an hour and half and a large budget to the international network of professional climate change deniers. ‘The Great Global Warming Swindle’ was a propaganda gift to the various vested interests who seek to undermine the fragile political and social will to take action on this global action.

And it was sometimes very convincing, as strongly worded opinions often are when they are not subject to any verification or external challenge. For example, there are excellent rebuttals against the contention that global warming is correlated to cosmic rays (for example see… ) At the bottom I list the growing number of well referenced and detailed rebuttals of the scientific claims in the programme.

There was only one scientific advisor on the programme, Martin Livermore, whose sole scientific qualification is that he is the Director of a web-based think tank, The Scientific Alliance. The Alliance was set up by in 2001 by Robert Durward, the fiercely anti-green director of the British Aggregates Association, and Foresight Communications, a Westminster public relations and lobbying company, to “counter scare-mongering by the so-called green lobby”. (For more…)

The Scientific Alliance has no affiliation with any recognised scientific body but, like most of the contributors to the programme, it does have very strong links with the US public relations and lobbying organisations that have been so effective in setting the Bush agenda on climate change.

The writer and presenter of the programme was Martin Durkin. Although it was written in a highly personal and opinionated style- speaking freely of “lies”, and the “shrill frenzy” of “scare stories” – we never saw Durkin or discovered his personal credentials. As George Monbiot has revealed Durkin is closely affiliated with the Revolutionary Communist Party which has a strong ideological opposition to environmental science (more on Durkin and the RCP.

In 1997 Channel Four was forced to issue a humiliating public apology over a previous series of anti-environment programmes directed by Durkin called “Against Nature”. The Independent Television Commission found that “the views of the four complainants, as made clear to the interviewer, had been distorted by selective editing” and that they had been “misled as to the content and purpose of the programmes when they agreed to take part.”

For this programme Durkin drew up a dream team of scientists who have built personal careers as media pundits debunking the peer-reviewed work of their colleagues. There are few of them, but they are well supported by the Washington lobbies and kept very busy with media debates, documentaries and opinion pieces. (I have personally debated with five of them in media debates).

Is it any surprise then, that they were so persuasive. Most of the people on the programme are professional communicators who are more familiar with the chat show than the lab. Of course they give good interviews – it is what they do for a living.

And let us not forget that we all want to believe them. Wouldn’t it be wonderful to believe that the science is unsettled, that all that carbon dioxide that we are pumping into the atmosphere really has no effect, and that we do not have to worry about the future.

It would be entirely possible to put together a similar programme, with a string of credible former academics, to argue that smoking does no cause cancer, that HIV does not cause AIDS, or that black people are less intelligent. However, Channel Four would not dare broadcast the programme and we would not believe them if they did. Is it not a reflection of the deep public ambivalence about climate change that these dissenters are given such a prominent and uncritical showcase and that we are so keen to listen to them?

Make up your own minds from their track records. Here is a little more information on some of the people who appeared on the programme:

Fred Singer. Despite the caption on the programme, Singer has retired from the University of Virginia and has not had a single article accepted for any peer-reviewed scientific journal for 20 years. His main work has been as a hired gun for business interests to undermine scientific research on environmental and health matters. Before turning to climate change denial he has argued that CFCs do not cause ozone depletion and second hand smoke does not cause cancer (more… ). In 1990 he founded “The Science and Environment Policy Project”, which aggressively contradicts climate science and has received direct funding from Exxon, Shell, Unocal and ARCO. Exxon is also among the funders ($20,000 in 1998 and 2000)

Patrick Michaels is the most prominent US climate change denier. In the programme he claimed “I’ve never been paid a nickel by the old and gas companies” which is a curious claim. According to the US journalist Ross Gebspan Michaels has received direct funding from, among others German Coal Mining Association ($49,000), Edison Electric Institute ($15,000), and the Western Fuels Association ($63,000) an association of US coal producing interests (more…). The WFA is one of the most powerful forces in the US actively denying the basic science of climate change, funding, amongs other things, the Greening Earth Society which is directed by Patrick Michaels. Tom Wigley, one of the leading IPCC scientists, describes Michaels work as “a catalog of misrepresentation and misinterpretation”. (More on Michaels…)

Philip Stott was captioned as a Professor at the University of London although he is retired and is therefore free of any academic accountability. Stott is a geographer by training and has no qualifications in climate science. Since retiring Stott has aimed to become Britain’s leading anti-green pundit dedicating himself to wittily criticizing rainforest campaigns (with Patrick Moore), advocating genetic engineering and claiming that “global warming is the new fundamentalist religion.”

Patrick Moore is Stott’s Canadian equivalent. Since a very personal and painful falling out with Greenpeace in 1986 Moore has put his considerable campaigning energies into undermining environmentalists, especially his former friends and colleagues. Typical of his rhetoric was his claim in the programme that environmentalists were “anti-human” and “treat humans as scum”. Throughout the 1990s Moore worked as lead consultant for the British Columbian Timber Products Association undermining Greenpeace’s international campaign to protect old growth forest there. Whenever he has the chance he also makes strong public statements in favour of genetic engineering, nuclear power, logging the Amazon, and industrial fishing- all, strangely, lead campaigns for Greenpeace (more on Moore..)

Piers Corbyn has no academic status and his role in such programmes is to promote his own weather prediction business. He has steadfastly refused to ever subject his climatological theories to any form of external review or scrutiny.

Richard Lindzen. As a Professor of Meteorology at the credible Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Lindzen is by far the most reputable academic among the US climate deniers and, for this reason, he is heavily cited by sympathetic journalists such as Melanie Phillips and Michael Crichton. His arguments though are identical to the other deniers – for example an article in the Wall Street Journal (June 11 2001) he claims that “there is no consensus, unanimous or otherwise, about long-term climate trends or what causes them”.
He is strongly associated with the other people on the programme though co-authored reports, articles, conference appearances and co-signed statements.

Tim Ball was captioned as the University of Winnipeg. In fact he left in 1996 since when he has run political campaigns through two organisations he helped found: the Natural Resources Stewardship Project and the Friends of Science which, according to their websites aim to run “a proactive grassroots campaign to counter the Kyoto Protocol”; and “encourage and assist the Canadian Federal Government to re-evaluate the Kyoto Protocol”. Ian Clark is also on the board of the NRSP.

REBUTTALS OF THE ALLEGATIONS IN THE PROGRAMME

I have received a lot of postings from people criticising me for not dealing with the specific allegations in the programme. I am not qualified to do so, but here are links to people who are. I am not going to accept any more postings making this point. This website is a discussion of why we find it so hard to come to terms with climate change, not a bulletin board for people who people who are still not prepared to accept the conclusions of 20 years of research by every scientific insitution in the world.

1. Sir John Houghton, one of Britain’s leading climate scientists and former chair of the IPCC. Link… He states baldly that virtually every allegation was false.

2. The Royal Society. In a press release the Royal Society is very critical of the programme and concludes that “Those who promote fringe scientific views but ignore the weight of evidence are playing a dangerous game. They run the risk of diverting attention from what we can do to ensure the world’s population has the best possible future” link….

3. In the Sunday 11th issue of the Observer, six leading climate scientists from four universities criticise the conclusions of the progamme. They say: “we defend the right of people to be sceptical, but for C4 to imply that the thousands of scientists and published peer-reviewed papers, summarised in the recent international science assessment, are misguided or lying lacks scientific credibility and simply beggars belief” link…

4. In 13th March edition of the Guardian, George Monbiot takes out the claims of the programme one by one. Link… On his website full scientific references are given for his article which, unlike the Swindle, was checked by professional climate scientists before publication

5. Realclimate, an excellent blogsite run byclimate scientists in large part to deal with climate skeptic arguments also goes through the allegations point by point link…

6. One of the few real scientists to appear on the programme (that is to say he really does do climate science rather than working for a public relations company) was Professor Carl Wunsch, professor of physical oceanography at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. In the Independent Wunsch claims that “They completely misrepresented me. My views were distorted by the context in which they placed them….I am the one who has been swindled…The movie was terrible propaganda. It is characteristic of propaganda that you take an area where there is legitimate dispute and you claim straight out that people who disagree with you are swindlers. That is what the film does in any area where some things are subject to argument.” link…

Well no surprise that Durkin lied to the participants about the programme and then edited what they said to misrepresent their views. This is exactly what he did last time he got a major programme and it led to the public humiliation of Channel Four, The question is this: what reputable broadcaster would ever give another major commission to this man. Obviously the same channel that thinks that subjecting an Asian woman to racist bullying makes good entertainment.

Let’s answer that last question another way. If you want a painful laugh, have a look at Channel Four’s own website on the programme link…

One the one side of the page is the information about the rubbish in the Swindle film. On the other side are links to other pages on climate change including “Explore the issues around the greatest challenge of our time”, which tells us that “little doubt exists among the scientific community that human activity is changing the climate…For the first time in our history the whole human species is under threat from the alarmingly powerful forces of climate change” Another featured link take us to “Environmentalism: A brief history of this powerful movement”.

OH FOR GODS SAKE! So even Channel Four don’t believe this programme. How unspeakably shallow and cynical can the media be?

Follow this link to the original: