Archive for the ‘The Perfect Storm’ Category

061222 – Friday – Book reviews…

Thursday, December 21st, 2006

I’ve just finished the last book in Peter Watts’ Rifters Trilogy. To say I like them would be an understatement. But, saying why I liked them is probably more relevant.

The trilogy consists of the following books:

Starfish
Maelstrom
Behemoth: B-Max
Behemoth: Seppuku

Now, how can a trilogy consist of four books? Well, when Watts wrote the third book of the trilogy, Behemoth, if ended up too long and the publishers forced him to divide it into two parts – strange but true.

If you can tolerate Science Fiction, then I highly recommend these books because they provide and excellent view into what our world’s future might look like. The story line, itself, is fictional and imaginative but the world he paints behind the story line is an excellent extrapolation of where today’s trends may well take us.

Like the better SciFi writers I’ve read in recent years, he has a background in science and the attitude of a generalist and these things deeply inform his work. He switches easily from biology to computer science to psychology and back again as he weaves.

I especially like the Notes and References section he includes at the end of these books. Many of the ideas he paints into his plot have a basis in the things science is revealing today.

Enjoy!

Chinese Success Story Chokes on Its Own Growth

Thursday, December 21st, 2006

– The economic miracles which are China and India are filled with people who, quite reasonably, would like to translate their new economic successes into living lives like Americans do.   Lots of consuming, eating meat, wasting power – all the things we take for granted in the US.

– The bummer is, the world hasn’t enough resources to allow a billion or more more people to live lives like we do – there simply isn’t enough ‘stuff’ to go around.  And this isn’t going to be easy to explain to them – indeed, no one wants to listen.  “You got to drink from the fountain of plenty – now it’s our turn!”

It’s just another reason why I’m not particularly hopeful about how things are trending. 

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SHENZHEN, China — When Zhang Feifei lost her job in this booming Chinese factory town, she was not terribly concerned. Jobs had always been plentiful in Shenzhen’s flourishing economy.

Then Ms. Zhang, a 20-year-old migrant laborer, lost her identity card and was shocked to find that no factory would hire her without a bribe that she could not afford. Desperate for money, she ended up working in a grimy two-room massage parlor in a congested alley here, where she has sex with four or five men each day.

“I was terrified at first, and I was really embarrassed not even knowing how to use a condom,” said the soft-spoken young woman, casting her eyes downward as she spoke. “I didn’t have any choice, though. Little by little, you have to get used to it.”

Few cities anywhere have created wealth faster than Shenzhen, but the costs of its phenomenal success stare out from every corner: environmental destruction, soaring crime rates and the disillusionment and degradation of its vast force of migrant workers, Ms. Zhang among them.

Shenzhen was a sleepy fishing village in the Pearl River delta, next to Hong Kong, when it was decreed a special economic zone in 1980 by the paramount leader Deng Xiaoping. Since then, the city has grown at an annual rate of 28 percent, though it slowed to 15 percent in 2005.

Shenzhen owed its success to a simple formula of cheap land, eager, compliant labor and lax environmental rules that attracted legions of foreign investors who built export-based manufacturing industries. With 7 million migrant workers in an overall population of about 12 million — compared with Shanghai’s 2 to 3 million migrants out of a population of 18 million — Shenzhen became the literal and symbolic heart of the Chinese economic miracle.

Now, to other cities in China, Shenzhen has begun to look less like a model than an ominous warning of the limitations of a growth-above-all approach.

More…

– this story is in the NY Times which requests an ID and password to login.   Getting these is a one-time free deal and well worth it.

Global Warming Poses Threat to Ski Resorts in the Alps

Tuesday, December 19th, 2006

How balmy has it been in the Alps these last few months? At the bottom of the Hahnenkamm, the famously treacherous downhill course in this Austrian ski resort, the slope peters out into a grassy field. And it’s just 10 days before Christmas.

Snow cannons are showering clouds of white crystals over the slopes, but by midmorning each day, the machines have to be turned off because the mercury has risen too far for the fake snow to stick.

“Of course I’m nervous about the snow, but what am I supposed to do?” said Signe Kramheller-Reisch, as she walked in a field outside her family’s hotel, wearing suede shoes and a resigned expression. “We have classic winters and we have nonclassic winters.”

This season is certainly shaping up as a nonclassic, but it may be a milestone of another kind. The record warmth — in some places autumn temperatures were three degrees Celsius above average — has brought home the profound threat of climate change to Europe’s ski industry.

If venturing outdoors without a jacket is not enough evidence, there are two new studies — one that says the Alps are the warmest they have been in 1,250 years and another that predicts that an increase of a few more degrees would leave most Alpine resorts with too little snow to survive.

More…

– note this article in in the NY Times and they often ask for a login ID & password. These are free to obtain – you just sign up.

Arctic Ice Melting Faster Than Expected

Tuesday, December 19th, 2006

New studies project that the Arctic Ocean could be mostly open water in summer by 2040 — several decades earlier than previously expected — partly as a result of global warming caused by emissions of greenhouse gases.

The projections come from computer simulations of climate and ice and from direct measurements showing that the amount of ice coverage has been declining for 30 years.

The latest modeling study, being published on Tuesday in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, was led by Marika Holland of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo.

The study involved seven fresh simulations on supercomputers at the atmospheric center, as well as an analysis of simulations developed by independent groups. In simulations where emissions continue to rise, sea ice persists for long periods but then abruptly gives way to open water, Dr. Holland said.

In the simulations, the shift seems to occur when a pulse of warm Atlantic Ocean water combines with the thinning and retreat of ice under the influence of the global warming trend.

Scientists ascribe most of that planet-scale warming, including a warming of the shallow layers of the oceans, to the buildup of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping smokestack and tailpipe gases in the atmosphere.

After 2040 or so, ice persists in summer mainly around Canada’s northern maze of islands and the northern coast of Greenland, a region that always tends to accumulate a clot of thick ice.

Separately, scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder found that the normal expansion of sea ice as the Arctic chilled in fall had been extraordinarily sluggish this year, following a pattern seen in recent years. The November average ice coverage was by far the lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979, said Walt Meier, a scientist at the ice center.

“It’s becoming increasingly unlikely that things will be able to turn around,” he said. “It would take several very cold winters and cool summers, which seems unlikely under global warming conditions.”

Several experts not involved with the studies said they were significant for human affairs, as well as biology.

More…

– note this article in in the NY Times and they often ask for a login ID & password. Â These are free to obtain – you just sign up.

Grand Theft Christianity

Friday, December 15th, 2006

– I’ve written on this story before here and here. It is amazing to me that certain threads within Christianity have gotten so far off the road and into the bushes.

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A loose coalition of progressive social-advocacy and Christian groups are lobbying major retailers, most-notably Wal-Mart, to stop carrying a high-end video game that they say urges born-again Christians to convert or kill others who don’t adhere to their extreme ideology – including Muslims, Jews, and Catholics.

The game is Left Behind: Eternal Forces, based on the popular Left Behind series of Christian-themed novels, which are based on the theology found primarily in the book of Revelation, according to the publisher’s Web site.

The action of the novels takes place after the Rapture, when Christian believers have been shuttled to heaven and the nonbelievers have been left behind to face the return of the Antichrist.

The Campaign to Defend the Constitution, Crosswalk America, Talk2Action and the Christian Alliance for Progress are among some of the groups that have joined forces to boycott the game and to lobby Wal-Mart to remove the Left Behind: Eternal Forces video game from its shelves.

Said Clark Stevens, co-director of the Campaign to Defend the Constitution, to the San Francisco Chronicle this week:

It’s an incredibly violent video game. Sure, there is no blood. (The dead just fade off the screen). But you are mowing down your enemy with a gun. It pushes a message of religious intolerance. You can either play for the good side by trying to convert nonbelievers to your side or join the Antichrist.

More… or

UN urges freedoms for Arab women

Monday, December 11th, 2006

– Discrimination against women because of male insecurity must stop in a world where all humans are recognized as equal.  Moreover, overpopulation is driven by problems that begin with women not having education, equal rights and the right of reproductive self-determination. We can no long afford cultures which keep women marginalized as a sop to institutionalized male domination and insecurity. How can we say it any plainer?

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Discrimination against women is holding back economic and social development across the Arab World, a report by the UN’s development agency says.

Arab women must be given greater access to education, employment, health care and public life, the report says.

The Arab Human Development Report is an annual overview compiled by Arab academics and experts in the field.

Islam is not to blame for the problem, the report says, but rather political inflexibility, male domination and war.

Disadvantaged

The BBC’s Imogen Foulkes in Geneva says the Unite Nations Development Programme’s report, entitled Towards the Rise of Women in the Arab World, reveals deep-seated discrimination against women across the region.

Maternal mortality rates remain unacceptably high and women suffer more overall ill-health than men.

More…

FLU VIRUS SHOWS TWIST IN TAIL

Monday, December 11th, 2006

– One of the potential elements of the Perfect Storm is a pandemic like the one that swept the world in 1917. The current Avian Flu Virus, H5N1, could, with just another mutation, learn to jump from human to human instead of from bird to bird and ignite such a calamity. In the face of this possibility, the news in this article is good, indeed. They may have found a way to defang flu viruses in general.

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PARIS (AFP)—Biochemists in the United States believe they may have found the Achilles heel of the H5N1 virus—and not just of the bird flu pathogen but of a wide range of other influenza strains.

The potential target is a long, flexible protein tail which is essential for virus replication, they report on Thursday in Nature, the weekly British science journal.

The so-called nucleoprotein (NP) plays its role after a virus has hijacked a host cell and subverted it into a virus-making factory.

The NPs come together in small rings, stacking up one atop the other to form a column. The virus’ RNA genome twists around this column before being shipped out of the cell in copies that go on to infect other cells.

The team, led by Yizhi Jane Tao of Rice University in Houston, Texas, believe the weak point is the tail’s loop.

Just a single mutation in the amino acids comprising the loop is enough to prevent the NPs from forming the building blocks.

More…

New crops needed to avoid famines

Tuesday, December 5th, 2006

– It seems that everywhere one turns, there is a story like this about failing fisheries, dying forests, or plunging water tables. Each story is full of alarming statistics and dire predictions. If it was just a one-off story, we could dismiss it as some drama-queen’s moment in the media spotlight – but it isn’t. It is, rather, like the increasing drum of rain on the roof as the storm builds. It grows louder and the predictions more dire, but at the same time, the human tendency to acclimate to new situations and to desensitize to stimuli previously presented, dulls most of us to the rising urgency.

– Most of us turn away after seeing yet another story with many of the same features as the previous one and we seek, instead, for the next pseudo-adrenalin fix from the ever more extreme offerings of the mass media or from the acquisition of our next ‘gotta-have-it’ physical toy.

– Rome is burning – marginalized to the back pages of section three overshadowed by the fact that Britney’s not wearing underwear these days.

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By Richard Black
Environment correspondent, BBC News website

The global network of agricultural research centres warns that famines lie ahead unless new crop strains adapted to a warmer future are developed.

The Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) says yields of existing varieties will fall.

New forecasts say warming will shrink South Asia’s wheat area by half.

CGIAR is announcing plans to accelerate efforts aimed at developing new strains of staple crops including maize, wheat, rice and sorghum.

At the network’s annual meeting in Washington, scientists will also report on measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from farmland.CGIAR links 15 non-profit research institutes around the world working mainly on agriculture in developing countries and the tropics.

“We’re talking about a major challenge here,” said Louis Verchot of the World Agroforestry Centre (Icraf) in Kenya, a member institute of CGIAR.

“We’re talking about challenges that have to be dealt with at every level, from ideas about social justice to the technology of food production,” he told the BBC News website.

“We’re talking about large scale human migration and the return to large-scale famines in developing countries, something which we decided 40 or 50 years ago was unacceptable and did something about.”

More…

Head for the hills – the new survivalists

Sunday, December 3rd, 2006

Published on Thursday, November 23, 2006 by The Weekend Australian Magazine

So what do you do when you’re pretty sure that the end of the world as we know it is coming soon, but your girlfriend doesn’t believe you? Sure, she might nod her head when you confront her with some of the gloomier facts, but then she shrugs and goes back to her pursuit of modern pleasures. She doesn’t like it when you talk about it to other people, either. No one likes being told their hopes and dreams are about to turn to dust.

This is the problem confronting Adelaide aircraft engineer Steve McReady. Sick of trying to warn people who won’t listen, he is bugging out. He has sold four of his seven investment properties, and has a fifth on the market. He’s putting his collection of 10 classic Triumphs and BMWs up for sale. The girlfriend begged him to keep the BM convertible, but there won’t be much use for it in the world he sees coming.

He has bought a property in New Zealand – which he says fares well in climate-change models – and once he gets his affairs in order he’ll move there to learn about growing vegies and raising chooks. He wants to build a big shed to stock with all the important things that will become difficult to obtain, such as fencing wire and Band-Aids. But he worries that he’s left it too late, and that the world might start getting ugly before he can learn how to make cheese and grow potatoes.

He would have been talking marriage with his girlfriend now if it weren’t for all this. “She’s a really nice person, great morals, but the lifestyle she aspires to is what most modern women want,” McReady explains the first time we talk on the phone. “We’re still going out and doing things together. We have talked about this issue but we really haven’t resolved it. I’m relying on time. Maybe $2-a-litre petrol by Christmas or if the United States invades Iran … Perhaps if she saw that what I’m talking about was true, she might change her attitude. But currently I can’t see it happening.”

When I meet McReady a few weeks later, they have split. He says he was unable to devote himself to her the way she needed. How could he when the calamity ahead colours his every waking thought? His whole future has spun off its steady track since he first picked up a document from a colleague’s desk about the end of the oil age. At 44, he had worked hard to be able to talk about early retirement. He was going to develop an industrial block, rent out two factory units and use another to tinker with his cars. But he’s sold the block now because in a future without cheap oil to power the modern way of life – and therefore without cheap food, without cheap anything – he can’t see much call for industrial blocks. He also can’t see much use for
aeroplanes, so he sold his half-share in one of those, too.

He’s well aware that the economy is booming, unemployment is low, the sun is shining. Surely the system is working?

“This is what a peak looks like,” he says. “That’s where the economists and cornucopians get it wrong. They don’t see that for every bright day there’s going to be a grey day.”

Sober and serious, McReady is part of a new wave of survivalists making plans for big trouble. Whereas once it was nuclear holocaust, big-government paranoia or religious rapture that motivated such people, now it is more likely to be climate change, energy shortages and economic collapse. This story is not about whether what they think is true, but more about the social phenomena of what they’re doing about it. Most never discuss their beliefs with friends and colleagues because they’re frightened of ridicule. But they are getting ready for a world morphed into “Argentina on a very bad day” or plunged into a never-ending depression, or famine, or, worst-case scenario, Mad Max IV and the die-off of billions of people.

More…

THE DARKENING SEA

Sunday, December 3rd, 2006

– This is a long article and you may not be sure you want to read  after just reading the teaser section I’ve provided. If you are not sure, go to the end and you’ll find a few quotes from deeper within the article that may pique your interest.

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by ELIZABETH KOLBERT in The New Yorker magazine
What carbon emissions are doing to the ocean

Pteropods are tiny marine organisms that belong to the very broad class known as zooplankton. Related to snails, they swim by means of a pair of winglike gelatinous flaps and feed by entrapping even tinier marine creatures in a bubble of mucus. Many pteropod species—there are nearly a hundred in all—produce shells, apparently for protection; some of their predators, meanwhile, have evolved specialized tentacles that they employ much as diners use forks to spear escargot. Pteropods are first male, but as they grow older they become female.

Victoria Fabry, an oceanographer at California State University at San Marcos, is one of the world’s leading experts on pteropods. She is slight and soft-spoken, with wavy black hair and blue-green eyes. Fabry fell in love with the ocean as a teen-ager after visiting the Outer Banks, off North Carolina, and took up pteropods when she was in graduate school, in the early nineteen-eighties. At that point, most basic questions about the animals had yet to be answered, and, for her dissertation, Fabry decided to study their shell growth. Her plan was to raise pteropods in tanks, but she ran into trouble immediately. When disturbed, pteropods tend not to produce the mucus bubbles, and slowly starve. Fabry tried using bigger tanks for her pteropods, but the only correlation, she recalled recently, was that the more time she spent improving the tanks “the quicker they died.” After a while, she resigned herself to constantly collecting new specimens. This, in turn, meant going out on just about any research ship that would have her.

Fabry developed a simple, if brutal, protocol that could be completed at sea. She would catch some pteropods, either by trawling with a net or by scuba diving, and place them in one-litre bottles filled with seawater, to which she had added a small amount of radioactive calcium 45. Forty-eight hours later, she would remove the pteropods from the bottles, dunk them in warm ethanol, and pull their bodies out with a pair of tweezers. Back on land, she would measure how much calcium 45 their shells had taken up during their two days of captivity.

In the summer of 1985, Fabry got a berth on a research vessel sailing from Honolulu to Kodiak Island. Late in the trip, near a spot in the Gulf of Alaska known as Station Papa, she came upon a profusion of Clio pyramidata, a half-inch-long pteropod with a shell the shape of an unfurled umbrella. In her enthusiasm, Fabry collected too many specimens; instead of putting two or three in a bottle, she had to cram in a dozen. The next day, she noticed that something had gone wrong. “Normally, their shells are transparent,” she said. “They look like little gems, little jewels. They’re just beautiful. But I could see that, along the edge, they were becoming opaque, chalky.”

Like other animals, pteropods take in oxygen and give off carbon dioxide as a waste product. In the open sea, the CO2 they produce has no effect. Seal them in a small container, however, and the CO2 starts to build up, changing the water’s chemistry. By overcrowding her Cliopyramidata, Fabry had demonstrated that the organisms were highly sensitive to such changes. Instead of growing, their shells were dissolving. It stood to reason that other kinds of pteropods—and, indeed, perhaps any number of shell-building species—were similarly vulnerable. This should have represented a major discovery, and a cause for alarm. But, as is so often the case with inadvertent breakthroughs, it went unremarked upon. No one on the boat, including Fabry, appreciated what the pteropods were telling them, because no one, at that point, could imagine the chemistry of an entire ocean changing.

Since the start of the industrial revolution, humans have burned enough coal, oil, and natural gas to produce some two hundred and fifty billion metric tons of carbon. The result, as is well known, has been a transformation of the earth’s atmosphere. The concentration of CO2 in the air today—three hundred and eighty parts per million—is higher than it has been at any point in the past six hundred and fifty thousand years, and probably much longer. At the current rate of emissions growth, CO2 concentration will top five hundred parts per million—roughly double pre-industrial levels—by the middle of this century. It is expected that such an increase will produce an eventual global temperature rise of between three and a half and seven degrees Fahrenheit, and that this, in turn, will prompt a string of disasters, including fiercer hurricanes, more deadly droughts, the disappearance of most remaining glaciers, the melting of the Arctic ice cap, and the inundation of many of the world’s major coastal cities. But this is only half the story.

Ocean covers seventy per cent of the earth’s surface, and everywhere that water and air come into contact there is an exchange. Gases from the atmosphere get absorbed by the ocean and gases dissolved in the water are released into the atmosphere. When the two are in equilibrium, roughly the same quantities are being dissolved as are getting released. But change the composition of the atmosphere, as we have done, and the exchange becomes lopsided: more CO2 from the air enters the water than comes back out. In the nineteen-nineties, researchers from seven countries conducted nearly a hundred cruises, and collected more than seventy thousand seawater samples from different depths and locations. The analysis of these samples, which was completed in 2004, showed that nearly half of all the carbon dioxide that humans have emitted since the start of the nineteenth century has been absorbed by the sea.

When CO2 dissolves, it produces carbonic acid, which has the chemical formula H2CO3. As acids go, H2CO3 is relatively innocuous—we drink it all the time in Coke and other carbonated beverages—but in sufficient quantities it can change the water’s pH. Already, humans have pumped enough carbon into the oceans—some hundred and twenty billion tons—to produce a .1 decline in surface pH. Since pH, like the Richter scale, is a logarithmic measure, a .1 drop represents a rise in acidity of about thirty per cent. The process is generally referred to as “ocean acidification,” though it might more accurately be described as a decline in ocean alkalinity. This year alone, the seas will absorb an additional two billion tons of carbon, and next year it is expected that they will absorb another two billion tons. Every day, every American, in effect, adds forty pounds of carbon dioxide to the oceans.

Because of the slow pace of deep-ocean circulation and the long life of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, it is impossible to reverse the acidification that has already taken place. Nor is it possible to prevent still more from occurring. Even if there were some way to halt the emission of CO2 tomorrow, the oceans would continue to take up carbon until they reached a new equilibrium with the air. As Britain’s Royal Society noted in a recent report, it will take “tens of thousands of years for ocean chemistry to return to a condition similar to that occurring at pre-industrial times.”

Humans have, in this way, set in motion change on a geologic scale. The question that remains is how marine life will respond. Though oceanographers are just beginning to address the question, their discoveries, at this early stage, are disturbing.

The complete article is here:

Research thx to LA

Here are a few of LA’s comments on the article:

A recent New Yorker has an article by Elizabeth Kolbert on the
effects of carbon in the oceans. By now we could probably recite the consequences of carbon-loading the atmosphere, but I had never once heard or thought about how it might be affecting the sea. But “nearly half of all the carbon dioxide that humans have emitted since the start of the nineteenth century has been absorbed by the sea.”

This might initially seem like GOOD news. Think what shape the
atmosphere would be in had the oceans not absorbed half the carbon we’ve output! However, the aquatic carbon-loading is far from benign. The main consequence is a change in pH levels. The oceans are alkaline, and the carbon absorption makes them less alkaline, so it’s convenient shorthand (though not strictly accurate) to talk about “ocean acidification.” Research indicates that the changing pH of the oceans will have the following effects:

– Making it more difficult (and at some point impossible) for shellfish to form shells.

– Preventing the growth of coral and endangering the millions of species that depend on coral for habitat

– Killing some kinds of phytoplankton