Archive for the ‘The Perfect Storm’ Category

Administration Lawyer Claims Link Between CO2 and Warming “Cannot Unequivocally Be Established”

Thursday, November 30th, 2006

– Every day we delay taking decisive action against Global Climate Change is a day in which the power of the coming changes increases. Even if all CO2 emissions were utterly ceased today, the experts tell us that the material already in the atmosphere will still produce strong effects in the coming decades as the Earth’s massive and ponderous climate shifts into a new configuration to accommodate them. Someday, the names of those who advocated delay now will be cursed by future generations.
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Yesterday, the Supreme Court heard oral arguments in Massachusetts v. EPA. The outcome of the case will “likely determine whether the [Environmental Protection Agency] can regulate [greenhouse gas emissions] from power plants and other industries.”

Deputy Solicitor General Gregory Garre, who argued the case for the administration, admitted to the Justices that he had limited knowledge of climate science. “I am not an expert on global climate change,” Garre said.

Despite being uninformed in this “extraordinarily complex area of science,” Garre tried to introduce an element of doubt into the link between greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. From Slate’s account of the arguments:

Justice Stephen Breyer lights into Garre for some of the agency’s silly reasoning in declining to regulate the emissions. When Garre says that scientific uncertainty alone can justify the EPA’s refusal to regulate, Justice John Paul Stevens asks whether it matters that even the scientists who worked on the National Research Counsel study on global warming felt there was less scientific uncertainty than the EPA claimed. Garre insists that there is a “likely connection” between greenhouse gases and global warming but that “it cannot unequivocally be established.”

There is no doubt among the experts. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a body which involves thousands of scientists from over 120 countries who develop detailed reports on climate change, produced a report in 2001 which was reviewed by more than 1,000 top experts, including so-called “climate skeptics” and representatives from industry. The report stated, “There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.”

Most recently, the National Academy of Sciences unequivocally concluded that natural causes cannot explain the unprecedented warmth over the last 400 years, and “human activities are responsible for much of the recent warming.”

To the original article:

EXPERTS WANT TIGHTER CONTROLS ON NANOTECHOLOGY

Thursday, November 30th, 2006

– It is one of the signature attributes of mankind that as we’ve used our intelligence to bull our way to dominance of the planet and the biosphere, that we’ve repeatedly underestimated the effects of our actions on the world around us.

– Rachel Carson’s book, Silent Spring was, perhaps, our first major wakeup call in this regard. Today, the world’s soil, streams and oceans swarm with chemicals of all sorts that have no analogues in the natural world and are, in many cases, having unexpected and damaging effects on the planet’s biological forms – including us.

– Reviewing Kurt Vonnecgut’s 1963 book Cat’s Cradle in which in introduced us to the hypothetical Ice-Nine is instructive at this point as we embark on releasing larger and larger numbers of nanotechnlogical materials into the natural environment and, once agin, assuming that all will be alright. An amazing assumption that we seem to make over and over again so that caution will not get in the way of profits.

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WASHINGTON (AFP)—Nanotechnologies pose real threats to health and the environment and need prompt testing and oversight, but government and industry are moving slowly on the issue, scientists and environmentalists said.

Speaking after the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency took its first step to regulate a nanomaterial–near atomic-sized particles of silver being used as pesticide in products from shoes to a washing machine–experts told AFP that nanotechnology is already producing materials that can harm the environment and human health.

“There are some very serious concerns about potential health consequences,” said Patrice Simms of the U.S. Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC).

“We know next to nothing about their potential health effects,” said Simms.

Nanotechnology is the creation and use of materials barely larger than atomic in scale, measuring usually between one and 100 nanometers. A nanometer is one-billionth of a meter, and a human hair is roughly 80,000 nanometers in width.

At that size–small enough to pass through cell membranes in the body–many materials can take on physical and chemical properties not seen in their larger forms, giving them uses never imagined before.

A Washington-based group, The Project on Emerging Nanotechnologies, has catalogued 356 products already using nanotechnology, including “breathable” bedsheets, lighter, stiffer golf clubs, skin care creams, computer chips and antibacterial socks.

The technology also promises more substantial “miracle” uses, from health applications like cancer treatments, to drinking water filtration systems for poor countries, to longer-life batteries.

But materials at that size may also pose dangers when they are inhaled, ingested, absorbed through the skin, or spread through nature by wind and water, scientists warn.

“Something different happens when you begin to work at a very small scale,” said Andrew Maynard, chief science advisor at the Project on Emerging Technologies.

“We know that a lot of materials like asbestos and particles affect the health because of their shapes and sizes as well as their chemistry.

“It’s reasonable to assume that some of these new materials are going to do the same thing,” noting that there are a number of new nanomaterials in filament form, like asbestos which causes lung disease.

The problem is that both industry and the government have assumed the existing regulatory framework for chemicals and other materials is adequate, Simms pointed out.

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The dollar’s slide: How far, how hard?

Wednesday, November 29th, 2006

– The US Trade Deficit and the US National Debt are, in many people’s minds, getting seriously over extended and there will come a time when this perception gains general traction with those foreign investors who like to stockpile their money in US Bonds because of their safe and certain returns. When they decided too much is too much and shift their investments elsewhere, the US is going to come in for a hard financial landing. Since the US Trade Deficit and National Debt continue to rise year after year as if there is no tipping point, one can only wonder when we’ll cross it and everything will suddenly change. This possibility is just one of the many threads that make up the Perfect Storm hypothesis.

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The currency sank about 2.5 percent against the euro in the last 5 sessions. More losses may be coming.

(Fortune Magazine) — U.S. currency traders gorged on Thanksgiving turkey and took a half day last Friday while the rest of the world quietly bet against the dollar.

At first, it looked like a handful of speculators were taking advantage of light trading volume, which makes it easier to move a market up or down. But then more players started lining up against the greenback, too, and the worries hit harder than post-holiday indigestion.

The dollar has tumbled about 2.5 percent against the euro in the five sessions through Tuesday. Although the greenback came back a bit Wednesday, the dollar’s near its weakest against the euro since March 2005. The dollar also fared badly against the British pound, though it’s done slightly better against the lowly Japanese yen.

“With the dollar debacle, the health of the economy, current and future, is on trial,” said Brian Wesbury, chief economist at First Trust Advisors.

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The Storm Perfected by Jim Kunstler

Tuesday, November 28th, 2006

– Jim Kunstler is the author of The Long Emergency: Surviving the Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century which is an excellent analysis of why the demise of cheaply available oil will inevitably lead to the demise of suburbia and all of the consequences which will follow from that.
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November 27, 2006
Last week, I had one of those clarifying moments when the enormity of the American fiasco stirred my livers and lights again. I was riding in a car at sundown between St. Cloud and Minneapolis on I-94 through a fifty-mile-plus corridor of bargain shopping infrastructure on each side of the highway. The largest automobile dealerships I have ever seen lay across the edge of the prairie like so many UFO landing strips, with eerie forests of sodium-vapor lamps shining down on the inventory. The brightly colored signs of the national chain fried food parlors vied for supremacy of the horizon with the big box logos. The opposite lane was a blinding river of light as the cars plied north from the Twin Cities to these distant suburbs in the pre-Thanksgiving rush hour.

All that tragic stuff deployed out on the prairie was but the visible part of the storm now being perfected for us. On the radio, Iraq was coming completely apart and with it the illusion of America being able to control a larger set of global events — with dire implications for all the glowing plastic crap along the interstates, and the real-live people behind the headlights in those rivers of cars.

The main fresh impression I had amidst all this is how over it is. The glowing smear of auto-oriented commerce along I-94 (visible from space, no doubt) had the look of being finished twenty minutes ago. Beyond the glowing logos lay the brand new residential subdivisions full of houses that now may never be sold, put up by a home-building industry in such awful trouble that it may soon cease to exist. If suburbia was the Great Work of the American ethos, then our work is done. We perfected it, we completed it, and, like a brand new car five minutes after delivery, it has already lost much of its value.

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Fragmentation Quickly Destabilizes Amazon Rain Forest

Tuesday, November 28th, 2006

The towering–and tiny–trees of the Amazon can live for hundreds of years. But a 22-year study of what happens when the rain forest is sliced up by timber cutting, cattle ranching and soy farming has revealed that survivors in various fragments do not last for long. “In just two decades,” notes William Laurance of the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, who led the study, “a wink of time for a thousand-year-old tree, the ecosystem has been seriously degraded.”

Since 1980, researchers have been studying 40 different one-hectare plots in nine rain forest fragments in central Amazonia near Manaus. Covering roughly 32,000 individual trees composed of 1,162 species, 24 of the hectare plots rest near the edges of the remnant fragments while 16 lie deep within intact interiors. Comparing the two reveals that trees located on the edges of such fragments quickly perish, dying nearly three times faster than their interior peers. “When you fragment the rain forest, hot winds from the surrounding pastures blow into the forest and kill many trees, which just can’t handle the stress,” explains team member Henrique Nascimento of Brazil’s National Institute for Amazonian Research. “Also, winds build up around the fragment and knock down a lot of trees.”

Although overall tree species richness did not change over the two decades of the study, the type of species that predominated at the edges changed radically: from specialized trees capable of persisting in the dark understory to so-called generalist species. “These species are fast-growth, short-lived species with low wood density,” Nascimento explains, such as Cecropia sciadophylla, which has increased by more than 3,000 percent after fragmentation. Such edge fragments are also highly unstable, with one species replacing another in rapid succession, and the trees themselves remain generally smaller than their undisturbed, towering brethren in the interior.

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Mysterious Stabilization of Atmospheric Methane May Buy Time in Race to Stop Global Warming

Tuesday, November 28th, 2006

Since 1978 chemists at the University of California, Irvine, have been collecting air in 40 locations from northern Alaska to southern New Zealand. Using gas chromatography, the scientists have measured the levels of methane–CH4–in the lowest layer of our atmosphere. Although not nearly as abundant as carbon dioxide–CO2–methane remains the second most important greenhouse gas, both because each molecule of CH4 in the atmosphere traps 23 times as much heat as carbon dioxide and it helps create more ozone–yet another greenhouse gas–in the atmosphere. During the two decades of measurements, methane underwent double-digit growth as a constituent of our atmosphere, rising from 1,520 parts per billion by volume (ppbv) in 1978 to 1,767 ppbv in 1998. But the most recent measurements have revealed that methane levels are barely rising anymore–and it is unclear why.

Chemist Isobel Simpson led the research examining samples from 1998 through 2005 and found that methane levels had practically stopped rising, reaching 1,772 ppbv in 2005. During this period some years did see rises while others actually saw slight decreases, according to the paper presenting the result in the November 23 issue of Geophysical Research Letters. By also measuring levels of ethane (C2H6) and perchloroethylene, or perc, (C2Cl4) the researchers determined that these pulses in methane levels during this period could be linked to major forest fires, such as the massive burn in Indonesia from late 1997 to early 1998. “All three of these molecules are removed by the same process–reaction with hydroxyl,” a radical formed from water in the atmosphere, explains Nobel Prize-winning chemist F. Sherwood Rowland, who participated in the research. “Both methane and ethane are produced in biomass burning, but perc is an industrial solvent. If biomass burning is the source, then perc [levels] should behave quite differently from the two hydrocarbons, and this is what we observed.”

But that does not solve the larger question of why methane in the atmosphere seems to have reached a plateau. “The scientific community agrees that the pause is source-driven rather than sink-driven, that is, caused by decreasing emissions of methane,” Simpson says. “I don’t believe we have reached a consensus on which sources have decreased and by how much.” Leading hypotheses include: the collapse of the Soviet Union, which resulted in a decline in energy use in Russia and the other former Soviet republics; repairs to oil and gas lines to prevent leaks; decreasing emissions from coal mining; widespread drought that led to decreased emissions from natural wetlands; and a decline in rice production. “The trends of major man-made sources such as rice fields and cattle have greatly slowed down over the last two decades,” notes physicist Aslam Khalil of Portland State University. “As these–rice and cattle–were once big sources, their lack of continued increase would then cause atmospheric methane to stop increasing as well.”

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Scientists fear results of collapsed ice shelf

Tuesday, November 28th, 2006

By JOHN HENZELL, The Press newspaper, Christchurch, New Zealand

The Ross Ice Shelf, a raft of ice the size of France, could collapse quickly, triggering a dramatic rise in sea levels, scientists warn.

A New Zealand-led drilling team in Antarctica has recovered three million years of climate history, but the news is not good for the future.

Initial analysis of sea-floor cores near Scott Base suggest the Ross Ice Shelf had collapsed in the past and had probably done so suddenly.

The team’s co-chief scientist, Tim Naish, said the sediment record was important because it provided crucial evidence about how the Ross Ice Shelf would react to climate change, with potential to dramatically increase sea levels.

“If the past is any indication of the future, then the ice shelf will collapse,” he said.

“If the ice shelf goes, then what about the West Antarctic Ice Sheet? What we’ve learnt from the Antarctic Peninsula is when once buttressing ice sheets go, the glaciers feeding them move faster and that’s the thing that isn’t so cheery.”

Antarctica stores 90 per cent of the world’s water, with the the West Antarctic Ice Sheet holding an estimated 30 million cubic kilometres.

In January, British Antarctic Survey researchers predicted that its collapse would make sea levels rise by at least 5m (16ft), with other estimates predicting a rise of up to 17m (55ft).

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Islamists debate rape law moves

Tuesday, November 28th, 2006

– The following article is about certain cultural practices which I believe are destructive to humanity’s future. But, before I get into the article itself, I want to discuss the conjunction of environmentalism, multiculturalism and tolerance that this article draws us to consider.

– There’s been a debate for some time between myself and some of the folks I correspond with over the subject of multiculturalism. In general, I have no objection to the idea and I believe that we should respect and preserve all the world’s cultures. But, I would qualify that by saying, “within reason

– There are two obvious questions that follow a statement like that The first is, “What exactly do you mean, ‘within reason'”, and, “Who will decide such things, if you are suggesting limits?”

– Good questions and tough questions, both. To understand what I mean by ‘within reason’, you must understand first that I strongly believe humanity should adopt a new, conscious and intentional number one priority for itself if it intends to survive here without destroying itself and the biosphere. It is:

Humanity should adopt, as its number one priority, the goal of getting into a steady-state non-destructive balance with the biosphere so that we (and the other members of the planet’s biosphere) can survive here on Earth indefinitely.

– An associated and relevant idea is that basic logic tells us that we cannot have have two or more number one priorities.

– Therefore, when something comes into conflict with our chosen number one priority, we must choose against it.

– To make some crude but effective examples, if Abdul wants to wear a funny hat (funny to my eyes, perhaps) and decorate his camel with flowers and lead it in circles under the full moon chanting loves songs to his ancestors – I have no objections so long as none of it is destructive to our shared biosphere. But if Juan, in the Amazon rain forest, wants to slash and burn three square acres of forest, plant it and harvest crops on it for several years until the soil is depleted and then move on to the next patch of forest, then I say, “No, sorry, that’s just not consistent with what’s best for our joint survival – you are going to have to stop.”

– Of course, the problem arises when we ask the natural follow-on question, “Well, who is going to make these decisions about which cultural practices are benign and which are toxic to our joint futures?” And I wish I had a good answer but I don’t.

– I can tell you that the democratic process is breaking down here. The majority of people, either through lack of education or lack of intelligence, don’t care about such remote and abstract ideas so in those societies (which many of us consider to be our best societies) where our joint directions are suppose to be decided by democratic processes, it is obvious that not much is going to happen any time soon – to all of our detriments.

– Now with regard to this article, I believe that men and women are fundamentally equal and that any culture which practices discrimination against women is damaging to us all. But, aside from the obvious unfairness of such discrimination, it has been clearly shown that women with less education, with less economic power and with less control over their reproductive decisions contribute inordinately to the planet’s population problems which is itself a major driving force behind much of the coming Perfect Storm.

Imagine – requiring a woman reporting a rape to have to come up with four male witnesses to the crime, or face prosecution for adultery.

Press on dear readers … you comments are welcome.

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Pakistan’s six-party opposition Islamic alliance is threatening a campaign of countrywide protests over amendments to the country’s strict rape laws.

The MMA alliance says its members will resign from national and provincial assemblies after MPs voted that rape should no longer fall under Sharia law.

President Pervez Musharraf in a television speech said the Islamists were isolated on the issue.

The Sharia laws have been widely criticised by human rights groups.

The lower house of the parliament voted overwhelmingly on Wednesday to amend the controversial Sharia law that dates back to 1979.Until now, rape cases were dealt with in Sharia courts. Victims had to have four male witnesses to the crime – if not, they faced prosecution for adultery.More…

Climate Change Worsening Biodiversity

Monday, November 27th, 2006

The effects of the gathering Perfect Storm are appearing in the fabric of our world like cracks spreading slowly through glass. We can look through them, we can deny them, but they are there becoming more visible day by day.  Perfect music to consider all of this by: Hans Zimmer and Lisa Gerard – Progeny
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NAIROBI (AFP)—Climate change is having an alarming impact on whales, dolphins, turtles and birds and other rare species that migrate over long distances, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) has said.

Rising temperatures are already having a dramatic effect on many of these species’ food, habitat, health and reproduction, UNEP said Thursday in a report coinciding with UN talks on climate change in the Kenyan capital.

Achim Steiner, executive director of UNEP, said evidence was mounting that when a migratory species dwindled or an exotic species showed up in places where previously it was absent, global warming was to blame.

“The consequences of habitat change–changes in temperature, food–will, and is already beginning to, fundamentally affect the ability of species to survive,” Steiner said.

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India Joins Anti-Kyoto Asia Pacific Partnership

Sunday, November 5th, 2006

On a day when British Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett was urging India to join the fight against climate change, the country announced that it is throwing its lot in with the industry-oriented Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate (APP).

The anti-Kyoto APP is an international body including Australia, China, Japan, South Korea and the U.S. It has been presented as an alternative to the United Nations-sponsored Framework Convention on Climate Change, albeit one that rejects the notion of enforceable climate change measures such as those negotiated in the Kyoto Accord. Instead, the APP is dedicated to increasing GHG-causing industrial and energy development, promising only to improve the relative environmental cleanliness of those developments

The APP’s apparent devotion to clean development is welcome. There will be a huge amount of energy- and industry-related development, especially in India and China, in the coming decades and it is critical that these be as clean as possible. But it’s still a concern that the APP is being used as an international alternative to the hard choices and enforceable treaties that are necessary – the tiniest first steps of which are evident in Kyoto.

We can only hope that Canada, at least, will stand up and dismiss the APP for what it is, an international PR exercise, intended to make these countries look like they are acting responsibly when, in fact, they are just trying to dodge a difficult issue.

Original article…