Archive for the ‘The Perfect Storm’ Category

« Older Entries
Newer Entries »

The UK’s new coal age

Saturday, January 12th, 2008

– Everyone is pointing at China these days as the biggest source of global pollution and warming. Especially, with reference to their dependency on coal and the rate at which they are building new coal-fired power plants.

– So here’s a piece coming back from China pointing out some of the hypocrisy of this view. Interesting, to say the least.

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

George Monbiot

January 03, 2008

On a green hilltop in Wales — despite huge opposition from local people — diggers have begun excavating what will be the largest opencast coal mine in Britain. Why is this happening? George Monbiot investigates.

As I watched the machine scraping away the first buckets of soil, one thought kept clanging through my head: “If this is allowed to happen, we might as well give up now.” It didn’t look like much: just a yellow digger and a couple of trucks taking the earth away. But in a secure compound behind me were the heaviest beasts I have ever seen — 1,300 horsepower or more — lined up and ready to start digging one of the largest opencast coal mines in Europe. In Romania, perhaps? The Czech Republic? No, in Britain, on a hilltop in south Wales.

The diggers at Ffos-y-fran, on the outskirts of Merthyr Tydfil, are set to excavate 1,000 acres [nearly 405 hectares] of land to a depth of 600 feet [nearly 183 metres]. There has never been a hole quite like it in Britain, and our government’s climate-change policies are about to fall into it.

Everything about this scheme is odd. The edge of the site is just 36 metres from the nearest homes, yet there will be no compensation for the owners, and their concerns have been dismissed by the authorities. Although local people have fought the plan, their council, the Welsh government and the national government at Westminster have collaborated with the developers to force it through, using questionable methods. I have found evidence that suggests to me that a member of former prime minister Tony Blair’s government used false or outdated information to seek to persuade the Welsh administration to approve the pit. But perhaps the most remarkable fact is this: outside Merthyr Tydfil, hardly anyone knows it is happening.

More… ➡

Posted in Climate Change, CrashBlogging, The Perfect Storm | No Comments »

US Announces Revised Plan for National ID Cards

Saturday, January 12th, 2008

– I’m not sure how I feel about this.

– In a perfect world where the laws were fair and the government was truly a representative democracy of the people, by the people and for the people, this might not be a bad idea. I’m thinking here of the idea that if one has nothing to hide, why should one care.

…and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth.

Abraham Lincoln – The Gettysburg Address

– But, other than for idiots and ungrounded idealists, most of us know that’s not the world we live in and things are often made for one stated purpose – and then used for quite another.

– I just finished reading most of a biography about Benito Mussolini by Bosworth. It was a huge tomb; four inches thick. In it, you could see all the things said along the way by the main players as Italy lurched towards Fascism. And what the main players were saying they believed in was inevitably a function of what they thought gave them the best advantage within the current situation. And what they told the people was always what would make the people support them. Mussolini himself began as a rabid Socialist and anti-Church activist and ended persecuting Socialists and being quite cozy with the Vatican. He began as a man of the people and ended up deeply allied with the conservative forces with money in Italy.

– So, in a world where we don’t trust our leaders, we need (just as the U.S.’s founding fathers thought) to possess the means to oppose central authority if it becomes unrepresentative and oppressive. In the U.S., the very bedrock of how the government was originally constituted involved the idea that all citizens should be able to retain weapons in their own homes as a check on possibility of authority gone wrong.

– But when all weapons need to be registered with central authorities and when all people have to carry centralized identity cards, one can feel the chipping away at this ability of the people to provide a check on their government. And it seems it is the governemt that is doing the chipping.

– Does anyone recall a popular movement among the American people in support of National Identity Cards? Mmmm? Nope, I don’t either.

– But, read on good reader and see what you think. Comments welcome.

= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =

By VOA News
11 January 2008

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security has released a revised plan for phasing in a national identification card program that was set to begin this year.

The department has extended deadlines and made other changes to address the concerns of states about the cost and timeframe for compliance.

Passed by the U.S. Congress in 2005, the Real ID Act establishes national standards for driver’s licenses and other state-issued identification cards. The aim is to make it harder for terrorists, illegal immigrants and others to obtain or counterfeit identity documents.

At a news conference Friday in Washington, Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said the phased-in program gives states greater flexibility in implementing it.

Under the new timetable, people under the age of 50 must be issued Real ID – compliant identification cards by the end of 2014. For people over 50, enrollment may be extended to the end of 2017.

The new ID cards will be needed for boarding a plane or entering a federal building.

The original program was rejected by 17 states in part because it was expensive. But the cost of the new plan has been reduced by more than 70 percent – from $14.6 billion to $3.9 billion. Chertoff estimates it will cost states about eight dollars to make a Real ID license.

Lawmakers called for stricter identification requirements after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. The Department of Homeland Security points out that the hijackers in those attacks obtained 30 drivers licenses and used 364 aliases.

But critics argue the ID program could put at risk the privacy of citizens, saying it creates a database of personal information that could be hacked into or otherwise compromised.

To the original… ➡

– research thx to LisaG.

Posted in CyberChaos, General, Politics | No Comments »

The increasing probability of demagogues

Sunday, December 30th, 2007

…human kind cannot bear very much reality.

T.S. Eliot – Burnt Norton

People like things the way they want them. If one group of politicians raise taxes too much, people will vote for the other group who claims they will not raise taxes.

There’s nothing wrong with this in moderation – it is how democratic societies find their way by becoming manifestations of their people’s will.

But, there are limits beyond which what is reasonable is left behind. People don’t like hard truths. And politicians, ever bent on pleasing people so they can get elected, will deny hard truths and promise the impossible – if it means the difference between office or obscurity.

Thus, as we come into the hard times ahead, the rise of demagogues becomes possible and then probable.

People don’t want to give up the perks of living in the world’s richest nation (I am speaking here of the U.S.). They do not want to cut back on their material possessions, or on reasonably priced food or on their ability to live in a remote suburb and to drive everywhere they want in their car because they can – since gasoline prices are low.

If one politician tells them the truth – that things are going to unavoidably change and life must get tougher, then they will flock en-masse to elect the other fellow who tells them that he knows how to keep everything running just as it is – so they do not have to be inconvenienced.

There are a small minority of people who know that this isn’t right and will vote accordingly. But the vast majority of people don’t know this and really don’t care. They just want what they want and think that if they express their will at the ballot box, that reality will have to conform.

I follow a financial blog written by Sterling Newberry. He’s has a piece up just now discussing the impressive rise in the popularity of Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul – and what might be behind it.

As demagogues go, Paul and Huckabee are only minor examples but they represent, to me, a trend that we will see more and more of as the looming realities ahead begin to interfere with the American lifestyle and the American people’s comfort.

You will find the beginning of Newberry’s piece, below.

Definition of a demagogue:

emotive dictator: a political leader who gains power by appealing to people’s emotions, instincts, and prejudices in a way that is considered manipulative and dangerous.

= = = = = = = =

Americans want Progress. Since the Democratic Party’s elected leadership, and its major political candidates have decided to run as slightly left leaning Reaganites, Americans are turning to racism, nativism, anti-banking hysteria and conspiracy theories promulgated by demagogues. Huckabee and Paul are both populist reactionaries. They think that the cure to every headache is to amputate at the neck.

Within the Republican Party their populist and elitist division is bubbling to the surface because three policies of the elitist wing are appearing in the populist world as major pains. Populist candidates don’t believe in solving root problems, particularly not in the conservative side, because they believe that the symptom is the problem. Both pander directly to racism, and to a fuming conspiracy view of the world.

More: ➡

Posted in Culture - How not to do it, The Perfect Storm | 1 Comment »

Ancient Warming Caused Huge Spike in Temps, Study Says

Saturday, December 22nd, 2007

What started out as a moderate global warm-up about 55 million years ago triggered a massive injection of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere that sent temperatures skyrocketing, a new study says.

The finding suggests that today’s temperature rise may just be priming the planet for a carbon belch of epic proportions.

“You’ve got these feedbacks, these chain reactions of events in the atmosphere-ocean system,” said Appy Sluijs, a paleoecologist at Utrecht University in the Netherlands.

Sluijs and his colleagues found evidence for the chain reaction in two sections of sediment that accumulated on an ocean floor in what is now New Jersey.

The abundance and distribution of marine algae indicate the environment started to change and the ocean surface began to warm several thousand years before the large temperature spike.

The finding implies that the earlier warming triggered the injection of greenhouse gases visible in the geological record around 55 million years ago.

“That’s actually the first time we can see that in such a clear fashion,” Sluijs said.

The study appears in tomorrow’s issue of the journal Nature.

“Swampy” Arctic

Scientists have long studied the ancient temperature spike, called the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum or PETM, for clues to what could happen as a result of today’s global warming.

Research shows that during the PETM, global temperature shot up at least 9 degrees Fahrenheit (5 degrees Celsius), and swamp forests with redwoods and broad-leaved trees filled the Arctic.

A key unanswered question is what—if anything—triggered the substantial warming, noted Scott Wing, a paleobiologist at the Smithsonian Institution in Washington, D.C., who was not involved in the new research.

One theory is that the meltdown of methane hydrates—icelike deposits that store massive amounts of potent greenhouse gases in the seafloor—was responsible.

According to the new study, pre-warming triggered the melt, releasing greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Less clear is the nature of that pre-warming, study author Sluijs said.

One possibility, he pointed out, is a bout of volcanic activity that ripped Greenland from Europe, a theory proposed earlier this year in the journal Science.

More: ➡

Posted in CrashBlogging, The Perfect Storm | No Comments »

I’ve got some seaside land to sell – anyone?

Saturday, December 22nd, 2007

Here’s a collection of stories about impending sea level rises:

From 27 Jan 06:

Sea level rise ‘is accelerating’

Global sea levels could rise by about 30cm during this century if current trends continue, a study warns.Australian researchers found that sea levels rose by 19.5cm between 1870 and 2004, with accelerated rates in the final 50 years of that period.

The research, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, used data from tide gauges around the world.

More: ➡

From 23 Mar 06:

Sea rise could be ‘catastrophic’

Earth could be headed for catastrophic sea level rise in the next few centuries if greenhouse gases continue to rise at present rates, experts say.

A study in the US journal Science suggests a threshold triggering a rise in sea level of several metres could be reached before the end of the century.

Scientists used an ancient period of warming to predict future changes.

More: ➡

From 14 Dec 06:

Sea level rise ‘under-estimated’

Current sea level rise projections could be under-estimating the impact of human-induced climate change on the world’s oceans, scientists suggest.

By plotting global mean surface temperatures against sea level rise, the team found that levels could rise by 59% more than current forecasts.

The researchers say the possibility of greater increases needs be taken into account when planning coastal defences.

The findings have been published in the online edition of the journal Science.

More: ➡

From 17 Dec 07:

 

Rising seas ‘to beat predictions’

The world’s sea levels could rise twice as high this century as UN climate scientists have previously predicted, according to a study.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change proposes a maximum sea level rise of 81cm (32in) this century.

But in the journal Nature Geoscience, researchers say the true maximum could be about twice that: 163cm (64in).

They looked at what happened more than 100,000 years ago – the last time Earth was this warm.

The results join other studies showing that current sea level projections may be very conservative.

More: ➡

 

Posted in Climate Change, CrashBlogging, Rising Ocean Levels, The Perfect Storm | No Comments »

Arrogance and Warming

Friday, December 21st, 2007

This is so over-the-top it leaves one speechless. The Bush administration refuses to get on-board and provide any meaningful leadership on the global climate crisis and now they are actively blocking folks who want to take action. History will not judge them well.

= = = = = = = = = = = = =

Rome burns while Nero fiddles

The Bush administration’s decision to deny California permission to regulate and reduce global warming emissions from cars and trucks is an indefensible act of executive arrogance that can only be explained as the product of ideological blindness and as a political payoff to the automobile industry.

The decision, announced Wednesday by Stephen Johnson, the administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, overrode the advice of his legal and technical staffs, misconstrued the law and defied both Congress and the federal courts. It also stuck a thumb in the eyes of 17 other state governors who have grown impatient with the federal government’s failure to regulate greenhouse gas emissions and wanted to move aggressively on their own.

The Clean Air Act of 1970 gave California authority to set its own clean air standards if it first received a federal waiver. The law also said that other states could then adopt California’s standards. In 2004, California asked permission to move ahead with a law requiring automakers to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from new cars and light trucks by 30 percent by 2016. That would require improvements in fuel economy far beyond those called for in the energy bill signed this week.

Over the years, California has made 50 waiver requests to regulate smog-forming pollutants and other gases and has never been denied. This was the first request involving emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, which the Bush administration has steadfastly refused to regulate.

For three years, the E.P.A. also hid behind the argument that it had no authority over carbon dioxide emissions because carbon dioxide was not specifically identified as a pollutant under the Clean Air Act. The Supreme Court demolished that argument last April. Subsequent court decisions have upheld the states’ authority to set their own standards while refuting the auto industry’s assertions that meeting the California standards would be technologically and economically impossible.

More: ➡

– Research thanks to HD

Posted in Capitalism & Corporations, Climate Change, CrashBlogging, Politics - The Wrong Way, The Perfect Storm | 1 Comment »

Top 11 Warmest Years On Record Have All Been In Last 13 Years

Tuesday, December 18th, 2007

ScienceDaily (Dec. 13, 2007) — The decade of 1998-2007 is the warmest on record, according to data sources obtained by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The global mean surface temperature for 2007 is currently estimated at 0.41°C/0.74°F above the 1961-1990 annual average of 14.00°C/57.20°F.

The University of East Anglia and the Met Office’s Hadley Centre have released preliminary global temperature figures for 2007, which show the top 11 warmest years all occurring in the last 13 years. The provisional global figure for 2007 using data from January to November, currently places the year as the seventh warmest on records dating back to 1850.

Other remarkable global climatic events recorded so far in 2007 include record-low Arctic sea ice extent, which led to first recorded opening of the Canadian Northwest Passage; the relatively small Antarctic Ozone Hole; development of La Niña in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific; and devastating floods, drought and storms in many places around the world.

The preliminary information for 2007 is based on climate data up to the end of November from networks of land-based weather stations, ships and buoys, as well as satellites. The data are continually collected and disseminated by the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) of WMO’s 188 Members and several collaborating research institutions. Final updates and figures for 2007 will be published in March 2008 in the annual WMO brochure for the Statement on the Status of the Global Climate.

WMO’s global temperature analyses are based on two different sources. One is the combined dataset maintained by both the Hadley Centre of the UK Meteorological Office, and the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, UK, which at this stage ranked 2007 as the seventh warmest on record. The other dataset is maintained by the US Department of Commerce’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which indicated that 2007 is likely to be the fifth warmest on record.

Since the start of the 20th century, the global average surface temperature has risen by 0.74°C. But this rise has not been continuous. The linear warming trend over the last 50 years (0.13°C per decade) is nearly twice that for the last 100 years.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 4th Assessment (Synthesis) Report, 2007, “warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.”

More: ➡

Posted in Climate Change, CrashBlogging, Rising Ocean Levels, The Perfect Storm | No Comments »

Global Warming Is Destroying Coral Reefs, Major Study Warns

Tuesday, December 18th, 2007

ScienceDaily (Dec. 14, 2007) — The largest living structures on Earth and the millions of livelihoods which depend upon them are at risk, the most definitive review yet of the impact of rising carbon emissions on coral reefs has concluded.

If world leaders do not immediately engage in a race against time to save the Earth’s coral reefs, these vital ecosystems will not survive the global warming and acidification predicted for later this century. That is the conclusion of a group of marine scientists from around the world in a major new study published in the journal Science on Dec. 13.

“It’s vital that the public understands that the lack of sustainability in the world’s carbon emissions is causing the rapid loss of coral reefs, the world’s most biodiverse marine ecosystem,” said Drew Harvell, Cornell professor of ecology and evolutionary biology and head of the Coral Disease Research Team, which is part of the international Coral Reef Targeted Research (CRTR) group that wrote the new study.

The rise of carbon dioxide emissions and the resultant climate warming from the burning of fossil fuels are making oceans warmer and more acidic, said co-author Harvell, which is triggering widespread coral disease and stifling coral growth toward “a tipping point for functional collapse.”

The scientists argue that rising global CO2 emissions represent an ‘irreducible risk’ that will rapidly outstrip the capacity of local coastal managers and policy-makers to maintain the health of these critical ecosystems, if CO2 emissions are allowed to continue unchecked.

“This crisis is on our doorstep, not decades away. We have little time in which to respond, but respond, we must!” says Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, lead author of the Science paper, The Carbon Crisis: Coral Reefs under Rapid Climate Change and Ocean Acidification.

“Coral reefs have already taken a big hit from recent warm temperatures, but rapid rises in carbon dioxide cause acidification, which adds a new threat: the inability of corals to create calcareous skeletons,” said Harvell. “Acidification actually threatens all marine animals and plants with calcareous skeletons, including corals, snails, clams and crabs. Our study shows that levels of CO2 could become unsustainable for coral reefs in as little as five decades.”

“The livelihoods of 100 million people living along the coasts of tropical developing countries will be among the first major casualties of rising levels of carbon in the atmosphere,” says Professor Hoegh-Guldberg.

More: ➡

Posted in Biodiversity Loss, Climate Change, CrashBlogging, Food Shortages, Rising Ocean Levels, The Perfect Storm | No Comments »

Worries About Water as Chinese Glacier Retreats

Tuesday, December 18th, 2007

The Tibetan plateau has been called “the roof of the world” and “the third pole” for its ice-covered peaks. There, global warming is happening faster than at other, lower altitudes, with serious consequences for hundreds of millions of people.

China’s lowest glacier, the Mingyong glacier — an enormous, dirty, craggy mass of ice wedged in a mountain valley 8,900 feet above sea level — is melting. And as it melts, the glacier on the edge of the Tibetan plateau is retreating up the mountain faster than experts can believe.

“It’s truly amazing how much it’s traveled,” says Barry Baker of The Nature Conservancy, part of a team of international scientists who recently visited the shrinking glacier. “It is just unbelievable.”

Baker has been tracking the glacier’s retreat for the past five years. He is flabbergasted by the difference since his last visit two years ago.

“The change is actually really remarkable,” he says. “The glacier looks like it’s gone back up the valley at least 300 feet in just the last two years.”

An Astonishing Increase

Baker says the rate of retreat is increasing quickly.

“When we first started observing this glacier, it was retreating at about 80 feet per year, and now it looks like it’s doubled,” he says.

To explain the change, he cites an increase in temperatures.

“We’ve seen just in this area about a 2.2 degree increase in temperature just in the last 20 years. And it’s interesting because it seems like, from the climate data that we’ve been studying, that this region is warming faster than some of the other parts of China. In fact, from the data that we have, this particular region is warming almost twice as fast as China,” he says.

The scientists must scramble over the rocky debris, known as the moraine — left behind after the ice has melted — to move closer to the snout, or lower end, of the glacier. Studying this ice mass is extremely difficult because local Tibetans see it as a sacred glacier, and they have banned people from touching or stepping on the ice. That rules out normal scientific practices like removing ice cores and sinking stakes in the ice to measure its retreat.

The scientists have to depend on GPS measurements and repeat photography. In this, they are lucky — because explorer Frank Kingdon-Ward snapped pictures of the glacier as early as 1913. Anecdotal evidence indicates the glacier has retreated 1 1/2 miles since the late 1800s, when its tongue was close to Mingyong village.

More: ➡

Posted in Climate Change, CrashBlogging, Food Shortages, The Perfect Storm, Water Shortages | No Comments »

Dimming the Sun

Sunday, December 16th, 2007

I think my friend, MD, sent me this one intending it to be a CounterCurrents category piece – but I don’t think it is. The global weather system is a complicated animal and there are many give-and-takes within its systems.

In this case, the solar dimming resulting from global atmospheric pollution may be sheilding us from more rapid global warming.

So, when we do begin to move away from oil-based economies and generating massive atmospheric pollution, that should be good, right?

Yes, until the clearer air begins to let the blocked sunshine in which will further antagonize an atmosphere already overloaded with CO2 – and then up goes the thermometer.

= = = = = = = = =

New evidence that air pollution has masked the full impact of global warming suggests the world may soon face a heightened climate crises.

In the early 21st century, it’s become clear that air pollution can significantly reduce the amount of sunlight reaching Earth, lower temperatures, and mask the warming effects of greenhouse gases. Climate researcher James Hansen estimates that “global dimming” is cooling our planet by more than a degree Celsius (1.8°F) and fears that as we cut back on the pollution that contributes to dimming, global warming may escalate to a point of no return. Regrettably, in terms of possibly taking corrective action, our current understanding of global dimming has been a long time in the coming, considering the first hints of the phenomenon date back to 18th-century observations of volcanic eruptions. In this slide show, follow a series of historic events and scientific milestones that built the case for global dimming.

More: ➡

Posted in CrashBlogging, The Perfect Storm | No Comments »

« Older Entries
Newer Entries »